An Examination of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor

Few prediction schemes have been more accurate, and at the same time more perplexing, than the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor, which asserts that the league affiliation of the Super Bowl winner predicts stock market direction. In this study, we examine the record and statistical significance of this anomaly and demonstrate that an investor would have clearly outperformed the market by reacting to Super Bowl game outcomes.     

Impediments to Communication in Financial Institutions: Implications for the Risk Management Organization

This article investigates the question of how risk management should be embedded in a financial firm’s hierarchy. We answer this question by combining capital market theory with game-theoretic thinking. We develop a theory for the integration of risk management into an organization, based on private information and differences in preferences. Our model compares the payoffs from uninformed decision-making, solo decision-making, joint voting decision-making, and coordinated decision-making when information about a project’s expected return and risk is dispersed in the organization. Our findings have a number of implications for the organization of risk management.     

基于虚拟经济理论的美国企业年金投资研究

企业年金基金投资是企业年金制度的主要内容之一,也是整个制度建设中最为关键和复杂的构成部分,投资绩效的好坏,直接影响并决定着企业年金事业的兴衰成败。美国企业年金制度已有100多年的历史,20世纪50年代企业年金开始采用信托投资方式,60多年来,信托投资由企业家的独立决策演化成美国企业年金资产管理的常规模式。虚拟经济理论是以马克思虚拟价值观为出发点发展出来的新理论,有不同的学术流派。本文以成思危教授阐发的虚拟经济原理作为理论工具,对美国企业年金基金投资运营展开研究,解析其经验教训,以期为我国企业年金制度建设提供参考。     

Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets

Volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets into individual European bond markets using a GARCH volatility‐spillover model is analysed. Strong statistical evidence of volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets is found. For EMU countries, the US volatility‐spillover effects are rather weak (in economic terms) whereas the European volatility‐spillover effects are strong. The bond markets of EMU countries have become much more integrated after the introduction of the euro, and in recent years they have become close to being perfectly integrated. The main driver of the integration appears to be convergence in interest rates.     

Adding critical accounting voices to migration studies

The field of migration study is continually evolving and frequently controversial, as diverse people cross the globe and as social and economic transformations prevail. Although scholars in many disciplines have actively contributed to migration research, accounting scholars have been less actively engaged, despite migration's use of concepts so closely aligned with accounting: costs, benefits, risk, and control. This paper considers how accounting researchers may contribute to the study of migration, highlighting the potential for critical researchers to re-define terrains of discourse.Migration theories are introduced, illustrating the complexities and interconnectedness of the role of globalisation, poverty, state functioning, and the social sciences. We integrate previous research of accounting, revealing the discipline as part of the language and neoliberal agenda imbued in migration issues, and its participation in co-creating precarious boundaries and myopic concepts defining the debates. We provide a case analysis, specifically illustrating accounting's calculative practices and rhetoric as limiting and obscuring social issues in migration, providing yet another instance of accounting's participation in social controversies.The rhetoric of accounting as merely a technique and the prevailing view of its objectivity are disputed as we reveal accounting's role in creating a simplifying reality, ignoring the complex interdependencies and powerful forces at play in migration arenas. Although much work is to be done in the accounting field to illuminate its role regarding migration issues, we are optimistic that critical researchers can provide expanded ways of thinking and a contribution to the deliberations. The work's originality is contained in its unique framing of migration discourse, revealing the skewed and shadowy assumptions of its traditional discourse, and examining how critical research expands possibilities for promoting social justice in the migration landscape.     

现代公司治理中的决策规则研究

构建科学的决策规则体系是解决公司治理问题的关键,国内外学者在决策权的配置、决策程序的划分、评价准则的取舍等方面各抒己见,但对于如何设计这一体系目前仍缺乏系统性的研究。本文通过对国内外已有研究成果加以综合分析评价,提出了今后可能的研究方向,以期对此问题的进一步研究提供线索。     

Emergence of macro-variables by evaluation and clustering of micro- activities

Recent finance and economic forecasting and risk calculation failures made obvious that macro-modelling without micro-foundation may be treacherous. Reliable macro-modelling requires the consistent bundling of individual actions into intermediate and macro-variables exploiting the individual actions’ coordination and its dynamics. The degree of coordination may range from chaos – absence of coordination – to determined situations caused by macro-level equilibrium dictating any agent's actions and inhibiting interactions. Coordination clusters individual actions into real decision units such as companies, political parties and unions. It structures the emergent intermediate and macro-level situations vitally.The paper presents first a centennial history of prominent scholars’ quotes questioning the equilibrium paradigm, a short survey of prevailing paradigm's deficiencies laid bare once again by the latest financial crises.It proposes second discrete choice (DC) – successfully applied in different fields – to model the individual agent's decision. DCs innovative integration into a Markov process provides a steady foundation to model interactions of individual agents consistently.The final section justifies the actions’ proposed interactive bundling by referring to recent advances in data processing and network topology. The dynamic modelling of the actions’ and interactions’ coordination breaks fresh grounds both with regards to mathematical, computational and economic modeling requirements. The combination of latest developments in data processing like Big Data and the recently (re)discovered network topology capabilities may cope with these challenges.     

Technological bias at the exchange rate market

Prediction of exchange rates has been a topic for debate in economic literature since the late 1980s. The recent development of machine learning techniques has spurred a plethora of studies that further improves the prediction models for currency markets. This high-tech progress may create challenges for market efficiency along with information asymmetry and irrationality of decision-making. This technological bias emerges from the fact that recent innovative approaches have been used to solve trading tasks and to find the best trading strategies. This paper demonstrates that traders can leverage technological bias for financial market forecasting. Those traders who adapt faster to the changes in market innovations will get excess returns. To support this hypothesis we compare the performance of deep learning methods, shallow neural networks with baseline prediction methods and a random walk model using daily closing rate between three currency pairs: Euro and US Dollar (EUR/USD), British Pound and US Dollar (GBP/USD), and US Dollar and Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). The results demonstrate that deep learning achieves higher accuracy than alternate methods. The shallow neural network outperforms the random walk model, but cannot surpass ARIMA accuracy significantly. The paper discusses possible outcomes of the technological shift for financial market development and accounting conforming also to adaptive market hypothesis.     

Mobility,risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of ‘rational’ decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of ‘pure risk’ as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations.     

Consumption and Saving Behaviour: Modelling Recent Trends

This paper illustrates recent trends in household consumption and personal savings in the UK and the US and discusses some theoretical models that can be used to interpret them. The trends in these two countries are interesting for several reasons. The decline in personal saving rates in the US during the 1980s is an unresolved puzzle. The corresponding variable in the UK has undergone large fluctuations, as have several other variables ranging from projected demographic trends to female labour supply. This paper stresses the need to analyse individual data to shed some light on these aggregate trends. It also stresses the need to have a sound structural model to interpret observed patterns in the data. The theoretical framework discussed throughout the paper is the life-cycle model, which views consumption and saving decisions as part of a dynamic optimisation process. The development of the model and the current research agenda and ways that it can be enriched with various degrees of sophistication are discussed. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the most recent developments. JEL classification Dl, E21.     

When the going gets tough,ads become straightforward but multi-appealed: The influence of the recession on financial services advertising appeals

Although many scholars and researchers have contributed to the sizeable literature on the relationship between advertising and society, few have examined economic circumstances as a meaningful force shaping advertising. This study provides the empirical evidence that changes in economic conditions, the recession in particular, can transform advertising appeals. The analysis of 1488 financial services ads placed in two popular US magazines showed that the patterns of appeals have turned to direct assertive styles in the wake of the economic crisis of the period 2008–2009. At the same time, however, ads during this recession period have used a far wider variety of strategic and tactical appeals than those in pre-recession era.     

When the going gets tough,ads become straightforward but multi-appealed: The influence of the recession on financial services advertising appeals

Although many scholars and researchers have contributed to the sizeable literature on the relationship between advertising and society, few have examined economic circumstances as a meaningful force shaping advertising. This study provides the empirical evidence that changes in economic conditions, the recession in particular, can transform advertising appeals. The analysis of 1488 financial services ads placed in two popular US magazines showed that the patterns of appeals have turned to direct assertive styles in the wake of the economic crisis of the period 2008–2009. At the same time, however, ads during this recession period have used a far wider variety of strategic and tactical appeals than those in pre-recession era.     

Perceptions of climate change among members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives,Ethiopia

Climate change has become an issue which touches upon all spheres of life. To combat the problem, understanding the perceptions of all that have stake in it provides with stronger ground for decision-making. Ethiopia is one those countries that are or going to be severely affected by climate change, the solution of which partly depends on how its key decision-makers perceive the problem. In light of this a questionnaire survey was conducted on 195 volunteering members of the House of People’s Representatives in Ethiopia. The results of data analysis reveal that most identified rainfall variability, declining hydrology and increasing temperature as manifestations of climate change, and emission reduction and forest protection as its key solutions.     

中国股市羊群效应的区制转移时变性研究

传统研究采用静态CCK模型检验股票市场的羊群效应,但无法描述羊群行为的动态变化以及市场可能受到的外部影响。本文基于中国股市日频交易数据,在静态CCK模型中引入参数的区制转移性质识别股市在不同状态间的转换,并分析中国股市羊群效应和交叉羊群效应的时变特征。研究表明,中国股市运行周期可被划分为两个区制,分别呈现低波动和高波动的行情特征;羊群效应的程度随区制转移而变化,具有区制依存性。其中,沪深股市在高(低)波动区制中,羊群效应更强(弱),相应区制持续时间较短(长);中国台湾股市仅在高波动区制中出现羊群效应,相应区制持续时间较短;中国香港股市无论在低波动区制或是高波动区制中,均不存在羊群效应。此外,沪深A股在低波动区制中对美国股市和中国香港股市存在交叉羊群效应。     

The linkage between the US and Korean stock markets: the case of NASDAQ, KOSDAQ, and the semiconductor stocks

This paper examines the interrelationship between stock prices in the US and Korea by applying the vector autoregression (VAR) model to the daily stock prices at three different level of aggregation – the national aggregate index level, the high-tech industry level and the semiconductor firm level – for the period of July 1996 through February 2001. The major findings of this study are as follows. First, the US stock market plays a leading role over the Korean market at every level of aggregation. The reverse direction of influence, from Korea to the US, was found to be minimal. Second, the evidence also suggests that the speed of transmission of innovation from the US to Korea is swift and finished for the most part within a 24-h period, although it takes three or four days to complete the whole process. Third, the influence of the US stock prices on Korean stock prices, which is measured by the innovation transmission using the impulse–response function (IRF) analysis, seems to be somewhat stronger in the composite national stock price indices and the tech-laden indices than high-tech firms. Fourth, at the firm level, the influence of Micron Technology on the leading semiconductor manufacturers in Korea is shown to be strong and persistent by passing about 34 percent of its innovations to the Korean firms within the three-day period. The impact of IBM and Intel on the Korean chip makers seems to be relatively smaller. Finally, stock prices in Korea, national stock price indices and individual high-tech stocks alike, have become much more responsive to innovations in the US stock prices after the 1997 financial crisis. The implications of the main findings in this paper are also discussed.     

Measurement,estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices

Credit migration matrices are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications; their accurate estimation is therefore critical. We explore two approaches: cohort and two variants of duration – one imposing, the other relaxing time homogeneity – and the resulting differences, both statistically through matrix norms and economically using a credit portfolio model. We propose a new metric for comparing these matrices based on singular values and apply it to credit rating histories of S&P rated US firms from 1981–2002. We show that the migration matrices have been increasing in “size” since the mid-1990s, with 2002 being the “largest” in the sense of being the most dynamic. We develop a testing procedure using bootstrap techniques to assess statistically the differences between migration matrices as represented by our metric. We demonstrate that it can matter substantially which estimation method is chosen: economic credit risk capital differences implied by different estimation techniques can be as large as differences between economic regimes, recession vs. expansion. Ignoring the efficiency gain inherent in the duration methods by using the cohort method instead is more damaging than imposing a (possibly false) assumption of time homogeneity.     

How do share repurchases affect ownership concentration?

We study how share repurchases affect the ownership stake of outside blockholders in 950 publicly-traded US corporations from 1996 through 2001, using a control function approach to address the possible endogeneity of repurchases. We find that share repurchases tend to make outside ownership less concentrated: repurchasing 1% of outstanding common equity decreases the fraction owned by large shareholders by around one and a half percentage points. This may decrease outside shareholders' influence over firm decision-making. Our results are confirmed when we restrict the sample to institutional owners, but not to individual owners.     

Factors affecting investment intentions: A consumer behaviour perspective

The purpose of this study is to examine investors’ decision-making from the perspective of a consumer using constructs commonly found in the consumer behaviour field. An investment intentions model incorporating product knowledge, product involvement, risk and uncertainty avoidance, and mediated by perceived risk and uncertainty, was developed and analysed using structural equation modelling. The research found that product knowledge and product involvement had the greatest impact on intentions, suggesting the applicability of these constructs in finance research. Perceived risk was the only mediating construct. The model explained more than 60 per cent of the variation in intentions. A major contribution of this research came from the development of an investment intentions model to examine retail investors’ investment decision-making processes from a consumer behaviour perspective. It helps practitioners to develop a better understanding of the factors that impact on their clients’ intentions to invest in the stock market. This study is the first to include a set of consumer behaviour constructs in an investment intentions model that was not examined before, despite the close relationship between behavioural finance and consumer behaviour that includes elements of psychology and sociology in individual decision-making.     

How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?

We investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risks (GPR) impact Bitcoin volatility with respect to factors related to type and nationality of uncertainty, investigated period, relationship horizon and extreme conditions. Applying ARDL model and quantile regression for monthly data from August 2010 to September 2021, we reveal that June 2014 corresponds to a key date that marks a reversal in the investigated relationship. Furthermore, we show that the relationship between uncertainty and bitcoin volatility changes according to different factors. US uncertainty has short run effects on Bitcoin volatility, while China’s uncertainty has rather long run effects. Moreover, Bitcoin volatility responds in the same manner to US EPU and GPR, while, it responds differently to China's EPU and GPR. In extreme quantiles, we find that Bitcoin hedges against US EPU and GPR. Further, Bitcoin hedges against either individual or joint effects of US uncertainty, but not both.