THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS*

This study develops a model wherein capital is used in final goods production and research and development (R&D) activities. This arrangement generates changes of the equilibrium capital allocation corresponding to capital endowment, which engenders a regime change from capital based growth with decreasing returns to R&D based perpetual growth. These two growth phases account for the polarization of economies. The model also engenders multiple equilibria on capital allocation—which emerge during the middle stages of capital accumulation—accounting for leapfrogging and the instability of the economic growth of developing countries with medium capital accumulation.     

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper examines the economic implications of institutional arrangements by which foreign investors are required to reinvest a certain percentage of their capital within the host country. Our analysis shows that foreign capital inflow can produce long-lasting economic benefits to the host country only when the foreign capital reinvestment rate is sufficiently greater than the host country's saving rate. In this case, the economy evolves into a unique steady state equilibrium, which is also asymptotically stable. The paper also presents several comparative static results regarding the responses of steady state capital-labour ratio and the proportion of foreign capital in total capital to changes in the population growth rate, the rate of capital depreciation, the host country's saving rate and the foreign capital reinvestment rate.     

ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY WITH TWO REGIONS: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE*

This paper proposes a compact two-region economic model with endogenous capital accumulation. The system produces one industrial commodity and service. Each region consists of one industrial sector and one service sector. The model describes the interaction between capital accumulation, the regional distribution of capital and labour, the division of labour, the capital distribution within each region, land rents, regional service prices and commodity prices over time and space. Accepting some simplifying assumptions, we show a way to integrate economic geography. equilibrium theory and neo-classical growth theory. We analyse how differences in regional resources such as land and amenities and the preference structure of the population may affect the equilibrium structure of economic geography.     

人力资本、技术进步与内生经济增长

在内生增长理论中,卢卡斯认为人力资本积累是经济增长的原动力,罗默则认为技术进步是经济增长的源泉。本文构建了一个内生增长模型,以解释人力资本积累和技术进步共同推动经济增长的机制。     

INTANGIBLE CAPITAL AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor's income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.     

资本市场开放与经济稳定增长—对东南亚国家的实证分析及其启示

20世纪90年代,国际资本的急剧流动引发了东南亚的金融危机。国际资本的短期性和投机性,以及它对发展中国家的资本市场、汇率、外汇储备和金融体系的强烈冲击,应当引起我们的深思。资本市场的开放,必须建立在国内金融体系的改革和实质经济市场化转型的基础上。     

人口结构、人力资本结构与经济增长

经济发展过程伴随着人口结构的改变以及人力资本结构的改变,这种改变又影响着经济增长方式。本文刻画了这两种结构,考察工作家庭与退休家庭、体能资本与知识资本、通用性知识资本与专用性知识资本在经济增长过程中的作用。笔者发现,一个经济社会在其发展的早期阶段,主要是依靠体能资本和专用性知识资本促进经济数量上的增长和赶超,之后主要依靠通用性知识资本实现质量型经济增长。     

国际资本流动、增长因素结构变迁与经济增长

在开放经济条件下,国际资本流动对资本、技术、人力资本和制度等经济增长因素的结构变迁有重要的影响,进而对经济增长有重要作用。     

人口老龄化、公共人力资本投资与 经济增长*

本文利用内生化老龄化的世代交叠模型,探讨了老龄化社会中为了促进经济增长可选择的公共人力资本投资的最优相对规模和结构。本文研究表明,公共人力资本投资相对规模（即占GDP比例）和公共健康支出占比（即占公共人力资本投资比例）均与经济增长呈倒U型关系,且最优值通过老龄化对经济增长的作用表现出来。即当老龄化对经济增长有促进（抑制）作用时,政府促进经济增长的政策是提高（降低）人力资本投资相对规模和公共健康支出占比。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,老龄化不利于经济增长,公共人力资本投资相对规模及公共健康支出占比偏大,均处在倒U型曲线的下降阶段,分别通过挤出对经济增长更具促进作用的私人投资、公共物质资本投资和公共教育支出而不利于经济增长。本文的政策含义是,政府需提高公共教育支出占比,引导和鼓励更有效率的社会私人资本进行人力资本投资,以逐步降低公共人力资本投资的相对规模。当前公共物质资本投资则需继续加强。     

资本积累与最优银行规模

本文回顾了近半个多世纪以来有关收入和财富分配持续性不平等的原因及其动态演化方面的理论,包括收入和财富分布的随机过程模型、新古典框架下不平等的动态演化理论、人力资本投资对持续性不平等的影响、不完全资本市场下持续性不平等的动态演化、经济增长中持续性不平等的动态演化以及其他各种机制对不平等动态演化的影响等。论文还对有关持续性不平等理论的发展脉络和内在演化逻辑进行了梳理,并在此基础上对现有文献进行了总体评述,并对今后研究的发展方向作了简单讨论。     

增长、资本形成与技术选择:解释中国经济增长下降的长期因素

对于一个劳动力供给如此富裕的经济,中国的经济增长率为什么在90年代中期以来持续下降?本文依赖"新古典"的增长理论对此做了解释。文章首先发现了改革以来中国的资本-产出比率与增长率之间存在着一个显著的负相关关系,然后给出了对这一关系的理论解释。文章认为,出现这个负相关关系的主要原因是资本的形成对经济增长表现出不敏感。在此基础上文章指出,中国经济增长率在近年来的持续下降可以由资本形成过快、从而投资收益出现持续恶化来解释。而不应简单地理解为(短期)总需求不足的结果。这意味着,缺乏一个有效率的投资体制和金融体系是中国经济未来持续增长的严重制约。     

UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Review of Explaining Growth: A Global Research Perspective, edited by Gary McMahon and Lyn Squire and Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon by Robert J. Gordon     

区域信贷成长环境评价与商业银行 经济资本区域优化配置模型

商业银行在进行经济资本配置的过程中,既要考虑各区域分支机构的风险调整收益,也要考虑区域经济增加值的成长空间。本文引入信贷成长环境的概念,将该指标作为商业银行区域信贷业务经济增加值成长空间的间接指标,并选择了一些与信贷密切相关的宏观指标来评价区域的信贷成长环境,通过因子分析法和熵权法对中部六省的数据进行了实证分析。最后本文建立了兼顾商业银行风险调整收益和区域信贷成长环境的经济资本区域优化配置模型,并基于模拟数据进行了简要分析。     

HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND LABOR MARKET EQUILIBRIUM*

We analyze an equilibrium labor market with on‐the‐job search and experience effects (as workers learn by doing). The analysis yields a Mincer wage equation with worker fixed effects and endogenously determined firm fixed effects. Equilibrium sorting—where over time more experienced workers also tend to move to better paid employment—has a significant impact on wage inequality.     

GLOBAL FINANCE, INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION

The appreciation of the consequences of financial globalizationis an important task for contemporary political economy. Thispaper maintains that industrial and macroeconomic instabilityfaced by many developed and developing countries is likely tobe attributed, to an extent, to changes in income distributionin favour of rentiers, financiers and other groups of financialcapitalists. We elaborate on Marx's and Keynes's ideas and arguethat a rise in rentiers' income might have been an obstacleto industry's investment decisions, and detrimental to capitalaccumulation. The econometric analysis conducted provides evidencein line with the paper's major hypothesis for the United Statesand the UK.