ESTIMATION OF TIME‐VARYING ADJUSTED PROBABILITY OF INFORMED TRADING AND PROBABILITY OF SYMMETRIC ORDER‐FLOW SHOCK

Recently, Duarte and Young (2009) studied the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decomposed it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order‐flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross‐section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high‐frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, APIN is not. On the other hand, PSOS is positively correlated with daily average effective spread and variance, which is consistent with the interpretation of PSOS as a measure of illiquidity. Compared to APIN, PSOS exhibits clustering and sporadic bursts over time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular

In this paper, we use several indicators of trade informativeness to search for informed traders on the final trading days of Banco Popular, the first and only bank resolution case to date in the euro area. In particular, we use the model proposed by Preve and Tse (2013) to estimate the adjusted daily probability of informed trading and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results indicate that upon the anticipation of a possible liquidation of the bank, informed investors reacted to the bad news by placing more weight on it and that Banco Popular experienced large increases in both buy- and sell-orders during the last days of trading when the bank registered a significant depletion of its deposit base. Moreover, we find evidence supporting the presence of inside trading and illiquidity, especially after speculation in the media that the bank could face a liquidation. Our study has important implications for market participants and regulatory authorities.     

Inferring the private information content of trades: a regime‐switching approach

This paper presents an empirical model for inferring the private information content of trades at the transaction level. The trade‐indicator model of Glosten and Harris ( 1988 ) is extended to a two‐state regime‐switching setting, and the model is estimated using tick‐by‐tick data from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The specialist is found to react in accordance with the proposed model. Bid–ask quotes set after the execution of a trade reflect the conjectured information content of that particular trade. Based on the estimated model four empirical results emerge: (a) the suggested regime‐switching model fit data well; (b) the reverse J‐shaped pattern of intra‐daily quoted spreads is shown to agree with the clustering of costs incurred by the specialist through trading with better‐informed agents; (c) on average 9% of all trades are found to reveal private: information to the specialist; (d) results regarding the trading volume of informed traders support the stealth trading hypothesis suggested by Barclay and Warner ( 1993 ). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium in a market with intermediation is Walrasian

We show that a profit maximizing monopolistic intermediary may behave approximately like a Walrasian auctioneer by setting bid and ask prices nearly equal to Walrasian equilibrium prices. In our model agents choose to trade either through the intermediary or privately. Buyers (sellers) trading through the intermediary potentially trade immediately at the ask (bid) price, but sacrifice the spread as gains. A buyer or seller who trades privately shares all the gains to trade with this trading partner, but risks costly delay in finding a partner. We show that as the cost of delay vanishes, the equilibrium bid and ask prices converge to the Walrasian equilibrium prices. Received: 2 February 1996 / Accepted: 28 March 1997     

Learning,information processing and order submission in limit order markets

By introducing a genetic algorithm learning with a classifier system into a limit order market, this paper provides a unified framework of microstructure and agent-based models of limit order markets that allows traders to determine their order submission endogenously according to market conditions. It examines how traders process and learn from market information and how the learning affects limit order markets. It is found that, measured by the average usage of different group of market information, trading rules under the learning become stationary in the long run. Also informed traders pay more attention to the last transaction sign while uninformed traders pay more attention to technical rules. Learning of uninformed traders improves market information efficiency, but not necessarily when informed traders learn. Opposite to the learning of informed traders, learning makes uninformed traders submit less aggressive limit orders and more market orders. Furthermore private values can have significant impact in the short run, but not in the long run. One implication is that the probability of informed trading (PIN) is positively related to the volatility and the bid-ask spread.     

沪深300股指期货在现货交易和非交易时段交易特征的比较研究

我国沪深300股指期货交易2010年4月16日正式推出,但沪深300股指期货市场与沪深300现货市场的交易时间存在显著的差异,即相对于股票现货市场,沪深300股指期货市场提前15分钟开盘,延迟15分钟收盘。运用日内分笔数据和分钟数据,对沪深300股指期货不同交易时段的交易特征进行比较。研究表明,不同交易时段知情交易者市场参与度存在明显差异,提前交易时段知情交易的概率最高,现货交易时段次之,延迟交易时段最低;沪深300股指期货在开盘时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,特别是开盘的第一笔交易包含有大量的私有信息,价格贡献最大;提前交易时段私有信息的价格发现贡献度最高;尽管提前交易时段的交易提供了较大的价格发现,但定价效率较低。     

A comparative study of technical trading strategies and return predictability: an extension of using NYSE and NASDAQ indices

This study extends the work of Brock et al.’s (1992) empirical analysis on technical trading rules (price and momentum) by including trading volume moving averages; broader indices (New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and National Association of Security Dealers Automatic Quotations (NASDAQ)) covering both large-cap and small-cap firms using market weightings; and focusing on a time period that includes great innovations in trading and disseminating data to the market. Similar to their study, we base our conclusions on nonparametric analysis. By extending the t-test analysis through a residual bootstrap methodology utilizing a random walk, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M), and a GARCH-M with instrument variables, criticisms of earlier technical analysis are mitigated. Overall, the results support Brock et al.’s (1992) price-weighted index (Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)) analysis by showing that the technical trading rules add value by capturing profit opportunities when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. When the analysis of the trading rules are applied to different time periods, the results reveal a weakening in profit potential over time. This may imply that the market is becoming more efficient in disseminating information to a wider range of investors.     

The effects of listing changes between NASDAQ market segments

This study analyzes the effects of listing changes within NASDAQ market segments during the period of 1998 to 2005. We find that firms phased up from the NASDAQ Small Capital Market (SmallCap) to the NASDAQ National Market (NNM) experienced significant declines in bid-ask spreads, the volatility of returns, and the probability of informed trading, and firms that phased down from NNM to the SmallCap experienced decreases in bid-ask spreads, but insignificant changes in the volatility of returns and the probability of informed trading. We also estimate simultaneous equations models of bid-ask spreads, return volatility, and trading volume for both groups of firms. The results confirm that improved liquidity is associated with the listing changes for the phase-up firms. However, the simultaneous equations model suggests that the decreases in bid-ask spreads for the phase-down firms are caused by the changes in share prices.     

Fake news

This analysis uses Twitter stock and options prices sampled at a 30 s frequency around the fake news announcement, of a bid for a controlling stake in Twitter stock, to investigate how noise trading and informed trading is disseminated into equity and option markets. We find reaction to the fake news occurred in the equity market, and the option market reacted with a delay. This differs from many analyses of actual news events, which found informed traders prefer the options market, and information from their trades then leaks into the equity market. We conclude uninformed traders, and those aware of the hoax, prefer to trade in equity over option markets. This result has implications for isolating informed trading around actual news events.     

Derivative Usage by Nonfinancial Firms in Sweden with an International Comparison

This paper provides survey evidence on the use of derivatives among Swedish nonfinancial firms. The evidence is compared with the findings by Bodnar et al. (1995, 1996) and Berkman et al. (1997) for the USA and New Zealand, respectively. By comparing firms in Sweden with firms in New Zealand and the USA differences in derivative usage can be related to differences in their underlying economies and history of trading in derivatives. Among other issues, the results showed that (1) 52% of the nonfinancial firms in Sweden used derivatives compared with 53% in New Zealand and 39% in the USA; (2) the usage of derivatives was more common among larger than among smaller firms; (3) the principal use of derivatives was for hedging purposes and those firms that engaged in speculative activity tended to be larger rather than smaller firms; and (4) lack of knowledge about derivatives within the firm was the issue of most concern for financial directors. The latter was in contrast with the USA where lack of knowledge was the issue of least concern.     

Autocorrelation of the trade process: Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange

This study investigates how duration-based trading intensity modifies the first-order autocorrelation and the transitory variance of the trade process. Because prices are conditional expected values, a structural model in which the trade duration represents the rate at which prices incorporate new information is developed. This refined model is an extension of the one developed by Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) and allows parameters characterizing the arrival rate of new information to be derived. Testing this model with data from the Helsinki Stock Exchange, I was able to determine that a model ignoring trading intensity effects on price changes would underestimate the transitory effects of the trade process. This finding suggests that trade duration captures neglected elements of implicit trading costs that increase with market microstructure effects.     

Which Has Stronger Impacts on Regional Segregation: Industrial Agglomeration or Ethnolinguistic Clustering?

Abstract

We investigate how regional segregation patterns are affected by industrial agglomeration and ethnic clustering, by adding the externality of ethnicity to the model of agglomeration and trade proposed by Ottaviano et al. (2002. Agglomeration and trade revisited, International Economic Review, 43, 409–436). We show that ethnic segregation patterns are persistent, while ethnic mixing distribution appears only when trade costs are intermediate and ethnicity clustering preferences are less intense. Further, discrepancies of the social optimum and equilibrium are caused because the social optimum is less sensitive to a change in trade costs, when the population of farmers (immobile factors affecting ethnicity utilities) is sufficiently large.     

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

Risk aversion,public disclosure,and partially informed outsiders

In this paper, we examine the impact of public disclosure and partially informed outsiders on a risk-averse insider’s trading behavior, market efficiency, and market depth. In our model, under disclosure requirements, except for the final auction, market depth is the same at every auction. When informed outsiders are risk-neutral, in contrast to the case of a risk-averse insider with no informed outsiders, the insider is more concerned about the uncertainty about future price risk. When the number of informed outsiders increases, market liquidity improves, and the insider increases the variance of her random component to conceal her trading strategy. However, since the insider is relatively more risk-averse, she pays less attention to doing this on her own. Besides, the order flow provided by informed outsiders and randomly added by the insider injects additional liquidity into the market. When informed outsiders are risk-averse, compared to risk-neutral informed outsiders, an insider is most concerned about trading risks brought by informed outsiders at the beginning of trading. Furthermore, whether the trader is an insider or informed outsider, the more risk-averse trader has lower expected profits. Moreover, outsiders’ greater risk aversion leads to a smaller market depth.     

Feedback trading in exchange-rate markets: Evidence from within and across economic blocks

This paper examines the pattern of autocorrelation of exchange rates in the EU, ASEAN, and NAFTA. We find no feedback trading within blocks among developed financial markets’ currencies, but it exists for less developed financial markets. Across blocks, no feedback trading is found. ASEAN currencies are an exception on both counts. When present, feedback trading is a destabilizing factor, and it takes place during rising volatility. Finally, the prevalence of negative feedback trading suggests that, in spite of the recent addition of new players into the market, such as mutual funds and hedge funds, the foreign exchange market is mainly influenced by informed players and/or central banks which intervene to protect their currencies.     

False dichotomy alert: Improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk

Taleb et al. (2022) portray the superforecasting research program as a masquerade that purports to build “survival functions for tail assessments via sports-like tournaments.” But that never was the goal. The program was designed to help intelligence analysts make better probability judgments, which required posing rapidly resolvable questions. From a signal detection theory perspective, the superforecasting and Taleb et al. programs are complementary, not contradictory (a point Taleb and Tetlock (2013) recognized). The superforecasting program aims at achieving high hit rates at low cost in false-positives, whereas Taleb et al. prioritize alerting us to systemic risk, even if that entails a high false-positive rate. Proponents of each program should, however, acknowledge weaknesses in their cases. It is unclear: (a) how Taleb et al. (2022) can justify extreme error-avoidance trade-offs, without tacit probability judgments of rare, high-impact events; (b) how much superforecasting interventions can improve probability judgments of such events.     

Costly arbitrage through pairs trading

We study the optimal trading policy of an arbitrageur who can exploit temporary mispricing in a market with two convergent assets. We build on the model of Liu and Timmermann (2013) and include transaction costs, which impose additional limits to the implementation of such convergence trade strategy. We show that the presence of transaction costs could reveal an endogenous stop-loss concern in a certain economy, which affects the optimal policy of the arbitrageur in significant ways. Using pairs of dual-listed Chinese stock shares as samples and a pairs trading strategy based on standard deviation of the spread as benchmark, we demonstrate the efficiency of the strategy implied by our model. Several extensions of our model are also discussed.     

Margin trade,short sales and financial stability

We model how leveraged trading activities constrained by dynamic funding availability affect financial stability. In the market, customers trade based on the fundamental value of the risky asset and make full payment for their transactions, while speculators take trading position based on margin, which is constantly adjusted by the financier, the fund provider, according to the price volatility. As a result of equilibrium price discontinuity triggered by dynamic margin requirements, trivial shocks to external supply, wealth or fundamental value can be transmitted into asset price crashes or jumps. We find that tightening margin requirements improves (mitigates) the market liquidity in the bull (bear) market, and that imposing short sale constraints helps prevent the price from falling further when the asset is sufficiently under-priced and accelerate price collapse when the asset is over-priced.

     

Bootstrap specification tests for diffusion processes

This paper discusses specification tests for diffusion processes. In the one-dimensional case, our proposed test is closest to the nonparametric test of Aı̈t-Sahalia (Rev. Financ. Stud. 9 (1996) 385). However, we compare CDFs instead of densities. In the multidimensional and/or multifactor case, our proposed test is based on comparison of the empirical CDF of actual data and the empirical CDF of simulated data. Asymptotically valid critical values are obtained using an empirical process version of the block bootstrap which accounts for parameter estimation error. An example based on a simple version of the Cox et al. (Econometrica 53 (1985) 385) model is outlined and related Monte Carlo experiments are carried out.