Probabilistic dominance and status quo bias

Decision makers have a strong tendency to retain the current state of affairs. This well-documented phenomenon is termed status quo bias. We present the probabilistic dominance approach to status quo bias: an alternative is considered acceptable to replace the status quo only if the chances of a (subjectively) severe loss, relative to the status quo, are not too high. Probabilistic dominance is applied and behaviorally characterized in a choice model that allows for a range of status quo biases, general enough to accommodate unanimity, but also standard expected utility maximization. We present a comparative notion of “revealing more bias towards the status quo” and study its implications to the probabilistic dominance model of choice. Lastly, the model is applied to the endowment effect phenomenon and to a problem of international portfolio choice when investors are home biased.     

A model for measuring and ranking a firm’s patent portfolio

ABSTRACT

Patent quality (PQ) is a critical and complex factor of a firm’s patent strategy. We posit that the existing PQ models and their methodological approaches are limited in their ability to address the multiple priorities of PQ – a firm’s strategic intentions, its stakeholders and balancing technology superiority and legal validity. We advance PQ literature by identifying the fourth generation of strategic PQ indicators and propose a hybrid multi-criteria model, based on AHP–TOPSIS, for patent portfolio measurement. The proposed PQ model provides a simple template that can guide the decisions of patent managers pursuing high quality patent portfolios. We test the PQ model by applying it in two sectors: 3G WCDMA telecommunications and biotechnology.     

Interviews with Institutional Investors: The How and Why of Active Investing

We interview professional institutional investors to learn how they choose between active and passive management, select active equity managers and construct multi-manager portfolios. We find that many of the aspects emphasized in the fund management literature, such as returns generated by the average manager and emphasis on past performance, play a relatively minor role in decisions. In contrast, judgment is found to play a central role, particularly the evaluation of people when selecting managers, the role of confidence in retaining managers, and self-perceptions about capability to identify skilled managers. Past performance is not taken at face value, but analyzed to understand underlying sources of returns. Stated reasons for preferring active management relate to whether a handful of skilled active managers can be identified and combined to generate a better expected portfolio outcome; and are only vaguely associated with the performance of the average manager.     

Economic Policy and the Progressive Idea

Abstract

Recent events in different countries suggest that institutional change is discontinuous and may lead to abrupt change. A specific case is shifts in social consensus. The article focuses on the latter. It argues that people make sense of their lives in relation to how they situate themselves within society. Their identities depend on the degree to which they are capable consciously to conduct their lives. Undesired economic change may disrupt previous identities and cause cognitive dissonance. At the collective level, it may trigger in-group versus out-group dynamics that provide a fictitious identity and either reinforce the status quo or suddenly subvert it.

Neoliberalism caused such undesired changes. A progressive alternative cannot rely just on convincing people that a change in conventional economic measures is desirable. It requires a recovery of people’s active and conscious self-identification. This involves overcoming their forced adaptation to the status quo through participation and collective action     

Optimizing tracking error-constrained portfolios

Active portfolios subject to tracking error (TE) constraints are the typical setup for active managers tasked with outperforming a benchmark. The risk and return relationship of such constrained portfolios is described by an ellipse in traditional mean-variance space and the ellipse’s flat shape suggests an additional constraint which improves the performance of the active portfolio. Although subsequent work isolated and explored different portfolios subject to these constraints, absolute portfolio risk has been consistently ignored. A different restriction – maximization of the traditional Sharpe ratio on the constant TE frontier in absolute risk/return space – is added here to the existing constraint set, and a method to generate this portfolio is explained. The resultant portfolio has a lower volatility and higher return than the benchmark, it satisfies the TE constraint and the ratio of excess absolute return to risk is maximized (i.e. maximum Sharpe ratio in absolute space).     

An experimental study of the impact of competition for Other People’s Money: the portfolio manager market

In this paper we experimentally investigate the impact that competing for funds has on the risk-taking behavior of laboratory portfolio managers compensated through an option-like scheme according to which the manager receives (most of) the compensation only for returns in excess of pre-specified strike price. We find that such a competitive environment and contractual arrangement lead, both in theory and in the lab, to inefficient risk taking behavior on the part of portfolio managers. We then study various policy interventions, obtained by manipulating various aspects of the competitive environment and the contractual arrangement, e.g., the Transparency of the contracts offered, the Risk Sharing component in the contract linking portfolio managers to investors, etc. While all these interventions would induce portfolio managers, at equilibrium, to efficiently invest funds in safe assets, we find that, in the lab, Transparency is most effective in incentivising managers to do so. Finally, we document a behavioral “Other People’s Money” effect in the lab, where portfolio managers tend to invest the funds of their investors in a more risky manner than their Own Money, even when it is not in either the investors’ or the managers’ interest to do so.     

The psychology of sunk cost: A classroom experiment

Abstract

Economics and business students are taught that sunk costs are irrelevant to their decisions. Yet, there is ample evidence that managers fail to integrate this simple rule and fall prey to what is known as the sunk-costs bias. To mitigate cognitive biases, such as the sunk-cost bias, educators must raise students’ awareness of these common judgment errors. In this article, the author proposes a classroom activity that actively engages students and allows them to identify this bias in their own judgments. The activity builds on a series of experiments from the psychology literature. The author discusses how these experiments have been adapted for classroom use and presents evidence suggesting that the activity increased students’ awareness of the sunk-cost bias and improved their decision-making skills.     

Assessing measurement errors in the CDM research–innovation–productivity relationships

ABSTRACT

The Crépon-Duguet-Mairesse 1998 article, known as CDM, initiated a structural econometric framework to analyze the relationships among research, innovation and productivity, which has been estimated most generally on the basis of cross-sectional innovation survey-type data. Some econometric implementations of the CDM approach have suggested that such data give useful but imprecise measures of the innovation output (share of innovative sales), and to a lesser degree of the innovation input (R&D). These ‘measurement errors’ may result in attenuation biases of the estimated R&D and innovation impact elasticities in the two basic CDM ‘roots’ relations of R&D to innovation and innovation to productivity, as well as in the extended production function à la Griliches linking directly R&D to productivity. Using a panel of three waves of the French Community Innovation Survey (CIS), we assess these biases and the magnitude of the underlying measurement errors, assuming mainly that they are ‘white noise’ errors. We do so by comparing two pairs of usual panel estimators (Total and Between) in both the cross-sectional and time dimensions of the data (Levels and Differences). We find large measurement errors on innovation output in the innovation–productivity equation, resulting in large attenuation biases in the related elasticity parameter. We also find smaller but sizeable measurement errors on R&D, with significant attenuation biases in the corresponding elasticity estimates, in the R&D–innovation equation and the extended production function. Simulations suggest that the measurement errors on innovation and R&D are unaffected by similar measurement errors on the capital variable.     

业绩排名、市场状态与基金经理的风险调整行为:“争名”还是“逐利”?

业绩锦标机制下,不同的市场状态会影响基金经理的风险调整行为。薪酬激励与职业忧虑会使得基金经理在风险调整时做出不同的选择。本文以2006年至2010年间的开放式基金作为研究样本,利用基金中报与年报所公布的投资组合明细,分析基金业绩排名对于基金经理风险选择行为的影响,研究发现:牛市状态下薪酬激励占据了主导地位,促使基金经理在上半年业绩排名较低的情况下在下半年增加投资组合的风险以谋取最大化薪酬;职业忧虑则会使业绩排名产生的影响在熊市下正好相反。此外,研究还发现,市场年中收益越高即市场的表现"越牛",排名较低的基金经理相对于排名较高基金经理提升其投资组合风险的表现也越明显。     

Testing the Gaussian and Student's t copulas in a risk management framework

This paper introduces a semiparametric framework for selecting either a Gaussian or a Student's t copula in a d-dimensional setting. We compare the two models using four different approaches: (i) four goodness-of-fit graphical plots, (ii) a bootstrapped correlation matrix generated in each scenario with the empirical correlation matrix used as a benchmark, (iii) Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) as risk measures, and (iv) co-Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) as co-risk measures. We illustrate this four-step procedure using a portfolio of daily returns of six international stock indices. The VaR results confirm that the t-based copula model is an attractive alternative to the Gaussian. The ES analysis is less conclusive, and indicates that risk managers should jointly use the risk measure as well as the copula model. The results highlight the importance of promoting stress testing rather than ES in the risk management industry, particularly in the aftermath of a financial crisis.     

Iso-risk: an analysis of risk-taking in fixed income markets

We test the hypothesis that portfolio managers trade-off variance and kurtosis in asset returns. We find empirical evidence that supports the iso-risk hypothesis using fixed income mutual fund data. Managers appear to systematically ‘swing for the fences’ when the probability of outperformance is low. This resolves previous enigmas of preference reversals and adheres to both Prospect Theory and tournament effects. The methodology developed enables reconciliation of active return metrics and managers’ total return behaviour. As the data set includes the great recession, we provide an economic interpretation of the results in light of the trade-off hypothesis.     

A portfolio approach to the optimal mix of funded and unfunded pensions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address the optimal funding of pensions by means of portfolio choice approach. Considering the unfunded (Paygo) pension system as a ‘quasi-asset’ with hedging and diversification properties, we derive the optimal portfolio mix of funded and Paygo systems within a mean variance and Bell linear exponential models. Our analysis involves both analytical computations and empirical estimations of optimal values using real long-term data for equity, bonds and the Paygo asset for several OECD countries and several time periods covering the time span 1897–2016. We find that in most cases a mix of both systems is desirable with a larger magnitude of Paygo system in the case of the Bell framework as we capture attitudes towards asymmetry and tail risks that are typical to equity markets.     

Social comparisons of wage increases and job satisfaction

We combine status quo and social comparison considerations and investigate whether relative wage increases in the sense of differences between individual wage increases and wage increases of comparable employees are related to managers’ job satisfaction. Using a panel data set of managers in the German chemical industry, we indeed find first evidence. The relation between relative wage increases and job satisfaction is relevant for managers with lower absolute wage levels in particular.     

Managing the transition to sustainable supply chain management practices: Evidence from Dutch leader firms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Governance literature identifies so-called ‘leader firms’ as the directors of global value chains. But in what direction are they leading? Some leader firms actively try to make a transition towards sustainable supply chain practices, but how can this be assessed? Supply chain management literature provides fragmented insights into the antecedents of transition processes. They adopt a largely ‘top-down’, ‘inside-out’ perspective rather than (also) take a ‘bottom-up’ and ‘outside-in’ perspective in which the consequences for the business models of supplying firms at the bottom of the supply chain are rarely taken into account. This contribution develops a more integrated eclectic approach on sustainable supply business models. We conceptualise antecedents of change along consecutive stages of management that combines different supplier ‘upgrading’ approaches with different ways in which leader firms integrate suppliers in their purchasing strategies. We apply this model to the strategies of 10 leading Dutch companies active in Africa, but with different supply chain positions.     

A Minskyan account of emerging currencies dynamics

Abstract

The currencies of a few emerging market economies (EMEs) have been following a specific dynamic since the early 2000s: They are strongly subordinated to international financial conditions, appreciating in moments of tranquility and presenting sharp depreciations in peaks of uncertainty. What is the mechanism behind it? To answer this question, this article applies the Minskyan framework to the context of money managers and their portfolio allocation decisions. The approach provides a detailed account of the mechanisms of the appreciation phase, thus complementing the emerging currencies’ literature that is focused on crisis episodes. The result is a dynamic characterized by deviation-amplifying systems—the opposite of the mainstream view where fundamentals lead to an equilibrium-seeking mechanism. Apart from these contributions to the exchange rate literature, it enriches the Minskyan literature for providing a broader reading of the original framework that allows it to be transposed to a larger set of contexts and for identifying the main elements to be translated in an analysis of a different context.     

Human capital and firms’ innovation: evidence from emerging economies

ABSTRACT

We explore the relationship between human capital and firms’ innovation in emerging economies. Most papers consider the formal knowledge developed in R&D laboratories as a major source of innovation. However, a critical portion of knowledge required for innovation resides in human resources and is created outside any formalised R&D activity. We consider that, to improve their technological capabilities, firms should invest in different forms of human capital, namely highly educated workforce and experienced managers, but also in strategic human resource (HR) practices aimed at developing human capital by increasing employees’ firm-specific technical skills and competences. Besides looking at the type of innovation outcomes, we place greater emphasis on the strategies of innovation development, as these should signal an improved firms’ ability, not just to innovate, but to put their own creative effort in the development of innovation. Our results contrast with the traditional view of firms in emerging economies as mainly relying on the external acquisition of innovations, by showing their actual ability to develop new technologies. In this respect, HR practices aimed at fostering employees’ learning and autonomy at work appear more important than the educational attainment of workers, whilst the experience of managers does not seem effective.     

Projecting total costs and health consequences of increasing mt-sDNA utilization for colorectal cancer screening from the payer and integrated delivery network perspectives

Abstract

Aims: To evaluate total costs and health consequences of a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program with colonoscopy, fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and expanded use of multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) from the perspectives of Integrated Delivery Networks (IDNs) and payers in the United States.

Materials and methods: We developed a budget impact and cost-consequence model that simulates CRC screening for eligible 50- to 75-year-old adults. A status quo scenario and an increased mt-sDNA scenario were modeled. The status quo includes the current screening mix of colonoscopy (83%), FIT (11%), and mt-sDNA (6%) modalities. The increased mt-sDNA scenario increases mt-sDNA utilization to 28% over 10 years. Costs for both the IDN and the payer perspectives incorporated diagnostic and surveillance colonoscopies, adverse events (AEs), and CRC treatment. The IDN perspective included screening program costs, composed of direct nonmedical (e.g. patient navigation) and indirect (e.g. administration) costs. It was assumed that IDNs do not incur the costs for stool-based screening tests or bowel preparation for colonoscopies.

Results: In a population of one million covered lives, the 10-year incremental cost savings incurred by increasing mt-sDNA utilization was $16.2 M for the IDN and $3.3 M for the payer. The incremental savings per-person-per-month were $0.14 and $0.03 for the IDN and payer, respectively. For both perspectives, increased diagnostic colonoscopy costs were offset by reductions in screening colonoscopies, surveillance colonoscopies, and AEs. Extending screening eligibility to 45- to 75-year-olds slightly decreased the overall cost savings.

Limitations: The natural history of CRC was not simulated; however, many of the utilized parameters were extracted from highly vetted natural history models or published literature. Direct nonmedical and indirect costs for CRC screening programs are applied on a per-person-per modality basis, whereas in reality some of these costs may be fixed.

Conclusions: Increased mt-sDNA utilization leads to fewer colonoscopies, less AEs, and lower overall costs for both IDNs and payers, reducing overall screening program costs and increasing the number of cancers detected while maintaining screening adherence rates over 10 years.     

Diamonds and precious metals for reduction of portfolio tail risk

ABSTRACT

We study the performance of diamonds compared to gold and other precious metals in mitigating the tail risk of a diversified equity market portfolio over the period June 2007 to October 2018. Our results display a diversification benefit of some diamond indices, which also improve the portfolio reward-to-risk ratio. To corroborate this evidence, we study the dependence structure and tail dependence of diamonds and a broad equity market portfolio and compare it to the dependence obtained with gold and other precious metals. Results from fitting a bivariate copula show that the average left tail dependence reaches its minimum when diamonds are used. We also show that using shares of diamond-mining companies does not provide the same benefits.     

Panel data analysis of multi-factor capital asset pricing models

In this article, we propose MFCAPM panel models with fixed effects and test theories associated with risk exposures and anomalies postulated by Fama and French, and we assess their out-of-sample predictive performances. Based on the portfolios formed by French, we construct 10 panel models, each consisting of 10 portfolios grouped by size deciles, and another 10 panels by value deciles. In the presence of cross-section dependence, the MFCAPM panel model is estimated by the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method for the sample period 1963(1)-2018(9). The results show that the market, firm-size and value risk exposures are significant and robust across three-, five- and six-factor panel models. Significant time-fixed effects indicate that there are several portfolios resilient to dot.com bubble peak in 2000, while some others resilient to GFC in 2007. We estimate the models for the in-sample period 1963(1)–1999(12) and generate the out-of-sample portfolio returns for the period 2000(1)–2018(9). We find that portfolio returns forecasts generated by the six-factor panel model are superior to other MFCAPM panel models, mostly due to the momentum factor (investor behaviour) explaining large return variations and volatility exposures. The findings have implications for investors, security traders and portfolio risk managers.     

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

Abstract

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world's largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification – primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities – with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today.