News sentiment and the investor fear gauge

This note examines the relationship between aggregate news sentiment and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). A significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and news sentiment is discovered. The relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following the release of negative news items.     

When is a MAX not the MAX? How news resolves information uncertainty

A well-known asset pricing anomaly, the “MAX” effect, measured by the maximum daily return in the past month, depicts stocks’ lottery-like features and investor gambling behaviour. Using the comprehensive stock-level Dow Jones (DJNS) news database between 1979 and 2016, we consider in a empirical setting how the presence of news reports affects these lottery-type stocks. We find an augmented negative relationship between MAX stocks without news and expected returns, whereby MAX with news coverage generates return momentum. The differing future return relationships between MAX stocks with and without news appears to be best explained by information uncertainty mitigation upon news arrival. Overall, our findings suggest that news plays a role in resolving information uncertainty in the stock market.     

How does news sentiment affect the states of Japanese stock return volatility?

This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility.     

月度要闻

<正>2007年12月12日,第三次中美战略对话在北京开幕。中国国家主席胡锦涛的特别代表、国务院副总理吴仪和美国总统布什的特别代表、财政部长保尔森共同主持对话。吴仪指出,对中美两国经贸关系发展过程中出现的矛盾和问题,双方要以建设性的态度通过对话和协商努力解决。要反对把经贸关系政治化,抵制贸易保护主义。     

月度要闻

<正>陈德铭部长在京与欧委会贸易委员曼德尔森会谈2月24日,商务部部长陈德铭与欧委会贸易委员曼德尔森举行会谈。双方就落实第十次中欧领导人会晤的共识,筹备中欧经贸高层对话机制及中欧双边重要经贸议题交换了意见。     

各地传真

山西省评协举办国际金融组织绩效评价讲座;内蒙评协编纂《内蒙古资产评估手册》;上海市评协举办《以财务报告为目的的评估指南》培训班;山西省评协举办资产评估行业发展研讨会;安徽省评（注）协召开第五次会员代表大会     

月度要闻

<正>联想进军全球消费PC市场1月3日,联想相关人士称,公司推出多款笔记本和台式机产品,正式进军全球消费PC市场。联想推出的新产品主要面向中高端用户。新产品将率先登陆美国、法国、南非、中国香港及内地、印尼、马来西亚、越南、泰国、菲律宾及新加坡等国家和地区。     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果.将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为\"财务\"和\"非财务\"消息,应用事件研究法从\"敏感性\"、\"强弱性\"和\"持续性\"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性.结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持...     

微观层面系统性金融风险指标的比较与适用性分析——基于中国金融系统的研究

准确测度金融机构对整体系统性金融风险的边际贡献是加强宏观审慎监管的基本前提。本文对常用的系统性金融风险指标进行了比较分析,并以“能否涵盖规模、高杠杆率和互联紧密性三方面信息”、“排序结果是否与银保监会认定的系统重要性银行名单相吻合”、“是否具有宏观经济活动预测力”三方面对上述指标在我国金融体系的适用性进行了综合评价。结果显示,SRISK更适于作为我国微观层面系统性金融风险的测度。同时,本文发现,“LRMES约等于1-exp(-18*MES)”的经验关系不具有普适性,不适用于我国金融体系。     

A 10-year retrospective on the determinants of Russian stock returns

We study factors influencing returns at the Russian stock market from 1995 to 2004, putting emphasis on how these evolved over time. We find that the relationship is highly unstable and this instability is not confined to financial crises alone. Most computed statistics exhibit constant ups and downs, but there has been recently a sharp rise in explainability of stock returns. Domestic factors have been playing a gradually diminishing role, while the importance of international factors has been increasing. In recent years, the effect of oil prices and foreign exchange rates has diminished, the impact of US stock prices and international and domestic interest rates has increased, while the influence of monetary aggregates such as gold reserves and credit balances has fallen to practically zero.     

Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in cryptocurrency markets?

This paper investigates how idiosyncratic volatility is priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns. By conducting both portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regression analysis, we demonstrate that idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to the expected returns of cryptocurrencies. This finding is not subsumed by effects of size, momentum, liquidity, volume, and price and is robust to different weighting schemes, holding periods, and sample sizes. Besides, we find no evidence of temporal relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns in cryptocurrency markets.     

投资者非理性行为是动量效应产生的原因吗?——来自互联网金融论坛的证据

动量效应是行为金融研究中重要的市场异象,然而目前各市场因素并不能完全解释其来源。在大数据背景下,本文通过挖掘金融论坛的结构化和非结构化数据,深入研究投资者微观行为与动量效应的关系,发现市值规模、账面市值比和行业等市场因素仅能解释约30%的动量效应,而基于行为金融的投资者非理性因素——投资者情绪、投资者关注度和情绪传播度,都是动量效应形成的重要因素,在市场因素的基础上还能继续解释35%左右的动量效应。研究结论对理解动量效应的形成机制和投资实践中网络信息的价值有重要意义。     

The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies

This study explores the role of investor sentiment in a broad set of anomalies in cross-sectional stock returns. We consider a setting in which the presence of market-wide sentiment is combined with the argument that overpricing should be more prevalent than underpricing, due to short-sale impediments. Long-short strategies that exploit the anomalies exhibit profits consistent with this setting. First, each anomaly is stronger (its long-short strategy is more profitable) following high levels of sentiment. Second, the short leg of each strategy is more profitable following high sentiment. Finally, sentiment exhibits no relation to returns on the long legs of the strategies.     

中国股票市场的已实现偏度与收益率预测

利用高频股票指数数据,本文构造了中国股票市场的已实现偏度,并检验了其对中国股票市场收益率的预测能力。实证结果显示,当前较低的已实现偏度可以显著预测下个月中国股票市场较高的超额收益率,样本内和样本外的R²分别达到了3.39%和2.24%。在控制了一系列的其它股票预测变量之后,该结论依然成立。此外,基于四种不同的构造方法,已实现偏度对上海和深圳两个股票市场都具有显著的预测能力。在将所有不同的已实现偏度指标进行组合之后,预测能力得到了进一步提升。从经济解释上,本文发现已实现偏度对股票收益率的预测能力是通过影响股票市场的交易活跃程度,从而传导到股票市场收益率。