绿色产品与广告诉求匹配效应的理论分析与实证检验

绿色产品与广告诉求之间的匹配关系成为当前绿色营销课题中的核心问题。理论分析得出,对于自利型绿色产品,理性诉求对消费者的广告态度和购买意愿的影响更为积极,而对于利他型绿色产品,情感诉求表现的更为积极。实验结果充分证明了两个理论假设。     

My computer is infected: the role of users’ sensation seeking and domain-specific risk perceptions and risk attitudes on computer harm

Literature has traditionally shown the potentially harmful consequences of risk-taking in a variety of domains. Less scholarly attention, however, has been directed to the study of risk-taking in the computer use domain. Using scanned data from 1902 computers, we sought to analyze the potentially harmful consequences that sensation-seeking and computer use risk perceptions and attitudes had on users’ computer vulnerability. Results of the study indicated that general sensation-seeking as well as computer use risk perceptions and risk attitudes were predictive of computer harm. The general measure of sensation-seeking was predictive of both risk perceptions and risk attitudes which in turn translated into the existence of malicious software in users’ computers.     

Implied threat or part of the scenery: Americans’ perceptions of open carry

Existing empirical studies of American perceptions of open gun carrying are limited to polls that often omit key background characteristics of respondents. The present study examined American perceptions of open carry by studying perceptions of safety across locations such as home, work, and shopping areas and by level of familiarity with the individual engaging in open carry. Data were drawn from a 45-question, nationwide online survey conducted in 2016. Respondents included more than 250 household gun owners and 250 non-owners. The data were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Overall, results showed that respondents felt uncomfortable in a situation involving open carry, and even less comfortable when the person engaging in open carry was a stranger. Gun owners, whites, and those with higher levels of education all expressed greater feelings of perceived safety. Respondents also reported that concern over mental state was a key factor in their perceived safety. Explanations for these findings, practical implications, and directions for future research are discussed.     

VaR模型在测算我国产险公司资产风险资本额中的应用

通过构建我国产险公司资产风险资本额的测算模型,比较V水估计方法后选择Delta—EWMA方法估算资产风险系数,对产险公司的实证分析结果表明：股票、证券投资基金、货币市场投资暴露的风险大,其资产风险资本额比例远高于其资产持有量比例。     

Bank exposure to market fear

We find that increases in implied market volatility (a proxy for market fear) have a significant impact on returns of bank stocks, above and beyond systematic risk proxied by the expected excess market return during a bad economic regime. Large bank returns are favorably affected by increases in implied market volatility during the crisis, while small banks are adversely affected by increases in implied market volatility. We attribute the different effects among the size-categorized bank portfolios to the perception that large banks are protected by too-big-to-fail policies. Within the sample of small banks, the adverse share price response to increased implied market volatility is more pronounced for banks that rely more heavily on non-traditional sources of funds, use a high proportion of loans in their assets, have a higher level of non-performing assets, and have a relatively low provision for loan losses. The adverse effect of negative innovations in implied market volatility on small bank returns during the crisis is primarily driven by exposure of their loan portfolio to weak economic conditions.     

经济高涨期间的风险特征与治理对策

经济高涨期的金融风险容易为宏观调控部门和微观市场主体所忽视,这是因为资产价格对实体经济的影响具有非对称性,资产价格上升对市场主体的投机行为具有刺激性,并对货币供给具有吸纳效果。风险管理的关口前移比风险的事后处置更为有效,因此在经济高涨期要揭示风险,并采取切实有效措施化解风险。本研究试就经济高位运行期间风险特征,风险隐藏的原因,以及治理对策作一探讨。     

环境气候风险评估方法的研究综述

随着习近平总书记提出我国要尽早实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标,中央经济工作会议也将做好“碳达峰、碳中和”列为2021年重点工作之一。央行逐步将气候变化相关风险纳入宏观审慎政策框架中,同时鼓励金融机构评估、管理其环境和气候风险。目前,我国除中国工商银行等少数机构之外,大部分金融机构还未系统性地对环境气候风险进行评估,并将其纳入投融资决策中。由此,如何客观准确地对环境气候风险评估是每个金融机构需要面对的现实问题。本文以央行和监管机构绿色金融网络(NGFS)发布的《金融机构环境风险分析案例集》为主要基础,对其涉及的两类环境气候风险的评估方法、评估应考虑的关键问题、评估涉及的关键因素以及评估模型存在的局限性等方面的内容进行编译和总结,以期对我国金融机构的环境气候风险准确客观评估给予有价值的参考借鉴。     

基于边际效应的银行个体系统性风险贡献测度研究

本文使用系统性风险β值法度量我国上市银行的系统性风险以及上市银行对系统性风险的贡献度。研究结果表明,单个机构对系统性风险的贡献不仅取决于系统性风险β值,还受到其个体风险值的影响。总体而言,国有大型商业银行的系统性风险β值高于中小股份制商业银行,对系统性风险的边际贡献和影响也较大。但中小股份制商业银行抵御风险的能力相对较弱,尽管β值较小,一旦个体风险值急剧增加,其对系统性风险的影响也可能超过国有大型商业银行。因此,系统性风险的防范既要关注那些系统性风险β值大的银行,也要关注个体风险值可能出现剧烈波动的中小银行。     

当前中国金融体系的潜在风险分析

尽管中国金融体系没有受到2008年金融海啸的重创,中国的金融市场也没有出现金融危机,但是当前中国金融体系仍然存在许多潜在风险。中国金融体系风险的特征成熟市场不同,主要表现为其不成熟性、不开放性、政府对金融市场主导性。无论是国内的银行体系还是证券市场都是如此。但是,由于国内银行体系在金融体系中的绝对地位,中国金融体系的风险主要表现在银行体系,表现为对国内银行体系过度使用及房地产泡沫吹大。因此,尽快地调整当前过度住房优惠信贷政策,是防止国内房地产泡沫破灭的关键。本文还对国内证券市场的风险及人民币升值的风险作了具体分析。     

金融风险综合评估方法最新研究进展

风险管理是金融机构的基本任务之一,如何有效地评估多种金融风险是风险管理者尤为关注的问题。当前金融风险综合评估方法主要采用由上至下法或由下至上法的理论框架。本文从金融风险综合评估方法所需解决的基本问题入手,详细阐述了金融风险计量方法中的主流模型及其研究现状,结合Copula理论介绍了风险综合评估方法的最新进展,并根据综合评估方法中存在的问题讨论了综合评估方法的前景及展望。     

尾部风险研究进展与评述

由于部分业务、部门或市场的尾部风险溢出不仅会引发金融体系的“多米诺骨牌”效应,而且会对实体经济产生巨大负外部性,因此尾部风险事件极易引起金融市场震荡。鉴于此,识别与监测尾部风险是有效防控系统性金融风险爆发与传染的起点。本文首先以全球金融危机为节点,根据文献厘清尾部风险测度指标在危机前后的脉络。其次,介绍与尾部风险传染密切相关的尾部风险相依、金融关联网络的相关研究进展,在此基础上对尾部风险溢出强度及溢出方向展开讨论。再次,本文归纳了引发尾部风险溢出的宏观、中观和微观层面的影响因素以及尾部风险管理的路径选择。最后,对当前及未来尾部风险相关研究进行评述与展望。据此,力求为我国进一步提高防范化解金融风险能力、统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展、促进国民经济稳健运行和良性循环提供借鉴。     

论机动车保险中高风险车辆的风险管理

高风险车辆赔付率的高低对机动车保险业务的经营效益有极大的影响,是保险公司风险管理的重点。按照风险管理的基本原理,保险公司应从风险规避、风险转移和风险控制三个方面着手,采取适当措施,加强对高风险车辆的风险管理,降低赔付率,保证业务的稳定性。不仅如此,由于风险具有可变性,实施风险管理不能一成不变,必须根据风险变化的情形随时加以调整和修改,按照科学的程序进行。     

公立医院财务风险研究

伴随我国医疗卫生体制改革的不断推进深化,公立医院作为改革主体,无论内部经营环境还是外部社会环境均发生了深刻的变化.环境的变化必然引发各种风险的产生,公立医院的生存发展正接受着前所未有的挑战和考验.医院要想在激烈的竞争中利于不败之地,必须建立健全并行之有效的财务风险识别、控制机制,加强医院的财务管理,完善医院的财务管理系统,最终达到防范医院财务风险的目的.只有准确识别面临的风险,才能有效地防范控制风险,保障医院正常运营以取得可持续性发展.     

浅议风险分析在商业银行内部审计中的运用

银行内部审计工作中对风险的认识应与组织的全面风险管理理念保持一致,对风险的分析贯穿于审计工作始终。本文重点从审计计划阶段、具体项目准备阶段和项目实施阶段等三个阶段来探讨如何对风险进行识别、评估以及如何利用风险分析评估结果确定审计重点、控制审计质量,从而防范审计风险,提高审计工作效率和效果。     

Optimal Put Exercise: An Empirical Examination of Conditions for Mortgage Foreclosure

Implicit in option-pricing models of mortgage valuation are threshold levels of put-option value that must be crossed to induce borrower default. There has been little research into what these threshold values are that come out of pricing models or how they compare to exercised option values seen in empirical data. This study decomposes boundary conditions for optimal default exercise to look at the economic dynamics that should lead to optimal default timing. Empirical data on FHA insured mortgage foreclosures is then examined to discern the predictive influence of optimal-option-valuation-and-exercise variables on observed default timing and values. Interesting results include a new understanding of how to measure and use property equity variables during economic downturns, house-price index ranges over which default is exercised for various classes of borrowers, and implied differences in appreciation rates between market-price indices and foreclosed properties.     

地方政府债券的风险及其防范机制构建*--基于广东省政府自行发债的经验分析

地方政府债券既是金融市场的投资产品,又是地方政府的融资工具,具有金融领域和财政领域的双重风险。本文在考察广东省政府自行发债的风险现状和法制障碍的基础上,提出构建和完善相关风险防范机制的建议。