Perception of technological risk: insights from research and lessons for risk communication and management

Technology has become a familiar companion in all areas of life. Production consumption, administration, education, communication, and leisure activities are all shaped by the use of technologies. However, people often associate with the term ‘technology’ attributes, such as catastrophic and potentially dangerous, and tend to take the benefits of technological products for granted. This asymmetry in risk–benefit perception is one of the main reasons why many consumers are concerned about ‘hidden’ risks of technologies and why they demand stringent regulatory actions when they feel unduly exposed to potential emissions or waste products associated with the lifecycle of technologies. This situation is often aggravated by social amplification processes, by which even small risks receive high media attention and are blown out of proportion in the public arena. At the same time, however, one needs to acknowledge that many technologies have the potential to harm the human health and the environment. The purpose of this article is to review our knowledge about risk perception with respect to technologies, in particular emerging technologies, and to suggest possible strategies to use this knowledge for improving our risk management practice. Technological risk perception is defined in this article as the processing of physical signals and/or information about a potentially harmful impact of using technology and the formation of a judgment about seriousness, likelihood, and acceptability of the respective technology. Based on the review of psychological, social, and cultural factors that shape individual and social risk perceptions, we have attempted to develop a structured framework that provides an integrative and systematic perspective on technological risk perception and that may assist risk management and regulation in taking perceptions into account.     

Consumer reactions to unfamiliar technologies: mental and social formation of perceptions and attitudes toward nano and GM products

Abstract

Using focus groups, the research analyses the mental and social processes through which consumers form perceptions and opinions about unfamiliar technologies and the derived products, taking the perception of nanotechnology and nano-products, GM and GM products as example. Our findings suggest that limited understanding of the technological principles and lack of (visible) products prevent the formation of experience-based attitudes and behavioral intentions. In this context, consumers interpret and assess cognitive interventions such as product labels or product information, as well as the trustworthiness of unfamiliar information sources, based on heuristic clues, association, mutual reassurance and previous attitudes. The established determinants of technology risk perception (e.g. knowledge, social norms, perceived risks and benefits and controllability) were the subject of constant deliberation and negotiation among participants. Consequently, the perception of risk and technology communication interventions might vary greatly across different locations and segments of the public, complicating risk communication and trust-building.     

Organic salmon farming: risk perceptions, decision heuristics and the absence of environmental accounting

This paper reports on interviews with salmon farmers exploring their decision as to whether to adopt organic production methods. Organic salmon farming has the potential to considerably reduce the social, environmental and economic risks associated with salmon farming. Salmon farming is an industry subjected to intense scrutiny and is highly controversial. The combination of these two factors was expected to reveal the use of environmental accounting in evaluating this potentially difficult, expensive strategic decision, responding to the barrage of public criticism, driven by changing environmental regulations and a potential value shift by key actors.However, interviews revealed that going organic was regarded as a normal agricultural decision, largely based on price forecasts. The shift to organic was relatively easy, unproblematic and not too expensive. The environmental pressure groups campaigns had very little impact on this decision and it was not subjected to systematic accounting evaluation. The interviews described a sector exhibiting many of the characteristics of Beck's Risk Society thesis (1992, 1995, 1996).Decision makers’ risk perception is identified as important for considering what factors are thought to be legitimate/illegitimate and powerful/weak in the decision making process. Unless risks are considered ‘real’ by the decision makers then the associated costs/benefits of doing or not doing something are not going to figure in the decision heuristics, regardless of the nature of their calculation. Environmental accounting could play a part, not necessarily at the individual farm level, but as part of a reflexive process in reconstructing the underlying knowledge of the social, environmental and economic risks of salmon farming as a whole.     

A Relational Theory of Risk: a Case Study of the Asian Longhorned Beetle Infestation in Worcester,MA

Abstract

The rise of globalization and global increases in temperature have prompted the spread of invasive species, which poses a major threat to the ecosystem benefits provided by urban forests. Stakeholders such as urban residents, policy-makers, and forestry industry professionals deem these risks differently because they place value on threatened goods and services at different spatial and temporal scales. This article will use the frameworks of relational risk theory and relational place-making to connect ‘risk objects’ and ‘objects at risk’ to better understand how relationships of risk shape responses to threats to the environment. The data in this study comes from Worcester, MA, where discovery of the Asian Longhorned Beetle prompted the United States Department of Agriculture to remove 35,000 trees from streets and backyards in the quarantine zone. The three different stakeholder groups that were targeted for data collection were green industry representatives, government decision makers, and residents. Green industry representatives, decision makers, and residents were interviewed while additional residents responded to a survey. The results showed that greater understanding of the different objects and places at risk removed misconceptions between different stakeholders. Understanding is increased when each stakeholder recognizes the different spatial scales of the objects at risk. This improvement of transparency can lead to better communication of the variety of risks posed by invasive species and a faster and more unified response to the threats from invasive species or other natural disasters.     

First steps in developing an automated aerial surveillance approach

Partners in emerging risk representative application (ERRA) A3 ‘Emerging risks related to the industrial use of automated and un-manned surveillance of industrial infrastructure’ develop a set of new technologies to automate aerial surveillance by collecting images with a drone and automatically processing them to identify threats to buried oil and gas transmission pipelines. Progress on two aspects is presented, on one hand, technology development, and on the other hand, dealing with the emerging risks associated with these new technologies. Technology development covers three functions assembled in a workflow:

? Image collection via a light drone with an autonomous navigation system and image geographical positioning system (GPS) referencing capabilities.

? Image automated pre-processing: image assembly and georeferencing.

? Threat detection: image analysis by change detection is performed using Definiens software for identifying external interferences like construction work and excavations threatening the pipeline.

This set of technologies is perceived as an emerging risk that is appraised from several points of view:

? Technology: unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), image georeferencing and assembly, change detection for threat identification.

? Human and Organisational and Communication: investigate the acceptance of this technology by the population and local authorities.

? Regulatory: check conditions that will ensure acceptance of operational use of light drones in some European countries.

? This general approach is needed to ensure both technology optimisation and the shortest path to reliable practical applications.     

How the enterprise risk management function influences decision-making in the organization – A field study of a large,global oil and gas company

Risk management has been a discipline for decades. However, organizations have only recently begun to introduce a separate enterprise risk management (ERM) function. The aim of this study is to examine the transformation of the ERM function's influence in a company over time. We use a historical case study informed by social theory on how to influence others to investigate this phenomenon. The findings show that the construction of risk technologies over time triggers a change in the ERM function's influence on decision-making. Two processes of influence are used by the ERM function: selling new ideas and managing knowledge across boundaries. In the first process, the ERM function attempts to vertically influence top management's decisions regarding acceptance of new risk management technologies. In the second process, the ERM function attempts to horizontally influence decision makers to use risk knowledge in decision processes. Theoretically, our findings contribute to our understanding of how the ERM function influences decision-making in organizations over time.     

Implications for enterprise to adopt cleaner technology: From the perspective of energy market and commodity market

Business-related decision making seems more difficulty than ever before. Diffusion signals from different market make it difficult for policy makers to adopt clear strategy, and the lack of clear coping strategies will hinder stakeholders in the market from making strong investment decisions as early as possible. To cope with this problem, we propose an innovative model that can analyze production decisions and technology adoption of enterprises been faced with two coupled markets. With the help of this quantitative method, we answer the basic question of the investment path and technology adoption time in a class of enterprises, and further analyze which factors in the related markets have a more obvious impact on the decision. A novel feature of this work is that we characterize the connection mechanism of the two markets so that we can investigate the interaction between enterprises’ decisions and the markets’ signals. Our stochastic model allows for quite general dependence on energy fuel price and investment choice. Turning to the special Monte-Carlo based method, we can determine the optimal time to invest as well as the switching time. We applied this framework to an empirical case of heating technology on a highway, and found that both consumer preferences and energy prices have a significant impact on enterprise's investment strategy, but consumer preferences have a greater impact on the transition time for cleaner technologies. Also, the results have potentially important policy implications and can provide a rationale for supporting cleaner technologies.     

An explanatory analysis of perceived risk decision weights (perceived-risk attitudes) and perceived benefit decision weights (perceived-benefit attitudes) in risk-value models

Abstract

All decision making requires a trade-off between risks and values. While Markowitz defined risk as the variance of returns (thus reasoning that investors should consider it as undesirable), the more general risk–value framework allows risk to be defined as a person’s subjective judgments. Psychological risk–return models go further, decomposing observed behavior (risk taking) into two processes: (1) a judgment of benefits and risks and (2) a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived risks, with a person-specific willingness to trade-off units of returns (benefits) for units of risk, conceptualized as attitude toward perceived risk (PRA) and attitude toward perceived benefits (PBA). PRA and PBA describe the degree to which people find perceived risks and benefits attractive, all other things being equal, and are assumed to be relatively stable across situations and domains. We test this assumption in an empirical study, checking the temporal stability of PRA and PBA (using the a Domain-Specific Risk-Taking [DOSPERT] scale ) and the cross-task stability of PBA (performing comparisons between the DOSPERT and the Columbia Card Task[CCT]). Finally, we explain both PRA and PBA using the Big Five personality dimensions and Stimulating–Instrumental Risk Inventory (SIRI), showing that PBA weights increase with openness to experience, while the negative effect of perceived risk on risk taking (PRA) increases with conscientiousness and decreases with stimulating risk taking. The results show that PBA and PRA can be treated as traits which, in some instances at least, are stable across time and tasks, and which can be partially explained by personality, providing a link to the idea of a personality dependent ‘ideal point’ for risk preference.     

Improving decision-making with scenario planning

Decision makers struggle with four important contributors to decision failure, namely, 1) bounded rationality, 2) a tendency to consider only external variables, 3) the stickiness and friction of information and knowledge, and 4) mental models that include decision premises or policies. Whether independent or combined, these decision problems can form the ultimate in decision error—folly. The four problems in decision-making are reviewed in detail and scenario planning is posited as a tool for preventing the impact of each, ultimately with an aim of avoiding folly.     

Conceptualizing Big Data: Analysis of Case Studies

Digitization and the related datafication produce huge amounts of data. Organizations have started to exploit these new data in order to gain benefits. Exploring this ‘big data jungle’ is a new area for both scholars and practitioners, and the experiences of early adopters are valuable. This paper analyses big data use cases described in the academic literature by using computerized content analysis methods. Based on the analysis results, we have conceptualized themes and guidelines of big data in the context of an organization, thus contributing to the emerging research of big data. In addition to the realized benefits, the case studies reveal issues regarding technology, skills, organizational culture and decision‐making processes. The paper also points out several new research avenues, acts as a reference collection to big data case studies found in academic sources, and bridges theory and practice by pointing out several topics that practitioners should consider. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.     

Frames and comparators: How might a debate on synthetic biology evolve?

A stimulated early public debate is frequently advocated when introducing an emerging technology like synthetic biology (SB). To debate a still quite abstract technology, participants functionally need a frame that determines which arguments are legitimate and which issues are relevant. Often, such frames are based on previous debates over other novel technologies. Three technologies currently provide frames for discussing SB: (green) biotechnology, nanotechnology and information technology. In the biotechnology debate, risk has long been emphasised over economic benefits. More recently, nanotechnology has been referred to mostly in terms of benefits, while risks tended to be an issue for scientific discourses. This has frequently been related to the many outreach activities around nanotechnology. Information technology, finally, has retained the image of being ‘cool’ and useful on a personal level. The technology itself is taken for granted and only the consequences of particular applications have been up for discussion. Upstream engagement exercises in SB will have to consider the comparator chosen more diligently, because it might influence the debate on SB ‘out there’ in the long run.     

Redefining safety in the era of risk trade-off and sustainability

While the risk level of visible factors has lowered, that of invisible and uncertain factors begin to attract attention, such as climate change triggering large-scale disasters and possible counter-risks arising from emerging technologies. Costs involved in reducing risk have risen considerably and a number of unintended counter-risks have also become apparent. Since the various measures implemented to counter global warming, including geoengineering measures, may lead to an increase in acute or chronic health and safety risks, there exists an urgent need for formulation of a framework for debating different kinds of risks by employing a common platform and expanding it along the spatial and temporal axes. In order to extend the scope of impact assessment with regard to the decision-making process and develop a common approach to risk assessment, the author argues that certain shortfalls need to be addressed, such as those that exist with regard to substances, domains, risks, and benefits, as well as in relation to time and space.     

Combining LCA and RA for the integrated risk management of emerging technologies

Emerging risks of innovative technologies, like for instance nanotechnology, require proactive assessments in order to guarantee that their future materials and products will not result in adverse effects on health, safety and the environment. The combination of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Risk Assessment (RA) offers a systematic approach to identify and assess potential impacts. LCA is a well-known analytical tool, standardised in ISO 14040-14044, to assess the environmental impact of the entire life-cycle of a product or service. Its strengths are the systematic approach to analyse all life-cycle stages of complex systems. Integrated risk management can benefit in various ways from LCA. Firstly, LCA offers a new dimension to the safety paradigm, exploring the principles and synergies between LCA and RA. Secondly, LCA offers a systematic approach to analyse the risks of innovative technologies along their entire life-cycle (from design, building, maintenance, operation to decommissioning). Thirdly, LCA offers an analytical tool to quantify the environmental impact of emerging technologies. In combination with RA, LCA can provide scientifically sound information for the early assessment of potential impacts on health, safety and the environment.     

Emerging technologies in favour of sustainable agriculture

European agricultural systems are going through a modernisation process involving radical structural changes. To tackle these important challenges, technology foresight has been employed as a systematic, participatory, intelligence gathering exercise focusing on future R&D investments in sustainable agricultural systems and green technologies. Because reliable data on emerging technology are scarce, any assessment has to be based to a large extent on qualitative methods and on an operational conception of sustainability using priority indicators. The paper describes the Danish Green Technological Foresight on Environmental Friendly Agriculture (GTFEFA). It treats this as a case study and examines the way in which a group of interested parties arrived at recommendations on the application of a number of emerging agriculture-related technologies. Two questions are then addressed: Can technological foresight simultaneously: (1) systematically describe and evaluate the consequences of employing emerging technologies in order to choose between alternatives, and (2) prioritise investments in emerging technologies so as to favour innovation. The discussion here is intended to help meet the challenge of operationalising the term ‘sustainability’, so that environmental friendly agricultural technology can be assessed against priority indicators. Finally, it is suggested that, provided that clear criteria for assessing the sustainability of emerging technologies are identified and made explicit, technology foresight offers a space for dialogue and exploration in contested territory.     

Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

Technology foresight is usually conducted by government or industry associations and can serve to provide companies with information on critical technologies that a country or industry intends to develop in the next ten to twenty years. For individual companies to benefit from foresight results and transform them into specific technology development plans, the relationships between the desired technologies and the dynamic business environment need to be understood. In this article, an innovation diffusion model implemented via system dynamics simulation is used to operationalize the link between foresight and planning. It helps company decision makers visualize the diffusion process of the innovation inhabiting the chosen technology and determine the critical parameters quantitatively through experiments and analysis. Using these results, possible paths leading to the desired future of the chosen technology can be generated and plans be prepared to guide the effective development of the technology, essential infrastructure, and key applications. An example is presented at the end to illustrate the application of the proposed method that helps a Chinese service carrier to plan for its 4G wireless communication network expansion.     

Risk as perceived by the German public: pervasive risks and “switching” risks

In 2001, a major project on the perception and evaluation of risks in southern Germany was conducted consisting of survey data as well as of semi‐structured interviews. With reference to the psychometric paradigm, this article analyzes public risk perception, pointing out the perceived risk semantic for nuclear energy, GM‐food, mad cow disease (BSE), crime, global climate change, mobile telephony and its radiation risks. These hazards reveal different patterns of risk perception and different levels of risk acceptability. Secondly, a comparison of qualitative and quantitative findings will be conducted: qualitative analyses indicate that the results of quantitative rating scales on the perception, evaluation and acceptance of technical and environmental hazards might be misleading since the public's focus on risks as elicited by open association stimuli relies much more on ‘everyday‐life’ and ‘pervasive’ risks than for instance on hazards emerging from new technologies. The relevance of technological risks tends to be dependent on the context: If explicitly mentioned in newscasts, in debates or listed in questionnaires memories, fears or other immediate responses become activated, yet they may be forgotten a short time later. We have called this phenomenon “switching effect” and the respective risks “switching risks”. In standardized opinion polls such ‘switching effects’ may evoke firm judgments, even if the importance in the interviewee's mental representation seems marginal.     

Acceptance of emerging technologies for corporate accounting and business tasks: An international comparison

Multinational enterprises make use of a variety of information technologies, and require access and usage of various databases and information sources. Based on a global survey, this study examines patterns of technology usage and impediments to such technology in a multinational setting. Past research indicates that culture has an impact on corporate activities, and thus, culture would theoretically affect use of emerging technologies for corporate accounting and other business tasks. This is an important issue as usage of information technology has been shown to affect corporate performance, specifically profitability. The results indicate that external, cultural, and technological differences between countries can significantly affect the use of emerging technologies in the accounting function.     

The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution: Its impact on society and firms

The impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on the analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. The greatest challenge facing societies and firms would be utilizing the benefits of availing AI technologies, providing vast opportunities for both new products/services and immense productivity improvements while avoiding the dangers and disadvantages in terms of increased unemployment and greater wealth inequalities.