美国信用评级业及其未来的监管政策调整

美国次贷危机的爆发使得信用评级机构声誉日下,同时也使得美国信用评级业存在的问题进一步暴露.金融创新背景下的美国信用评级业其实存在着许多内在矛盾和困境.因此,以下三个方面将是其监管政策调整的重点: (1)强化竞争机制,调整信用评级现有市场结构; (2)加强信息披露,提高评级活动的可审核性; (3)保证评级活动的独立性,促使评级结果的公正与客观.     

基于信贷渠道视角的我国货币政策区域效应探析

我国地区之间的经济金融差异和统一货币政策产生的区域效应这两种现象互为因果、相互促进.只有提高货币政策决策的科学性和灵活性,并向欠发达地区实行财政政策和政策性金融倾斜,同时加强欠发达地区的金融生态建设,才能提高货币政策的有效性.     

影子银行、信用创造与货币政策传导机制

中国的影子银行规模已经达到GDP的一半,因此研究与之相关的问题有重要的现实意义。影子银行具有特殊的信用创造功能,能影响中国货币政策的有效性。选取2008～2013年的月度数据,通过建立VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法,实证研究影子银行在计量角度上对货币政策各层次的影响效果。结果显示：影子银行规模与通货膨胀率、广义货币供应量存在长期稳定的关系;影子银行规模对物价有较强烈冲击,同时对货币供应量有时滞性的长期影响,在一定时间内对经济增长有负面影响,这说明需要出台相应的措施加强对影子银行的监管。     

公司融资结构调整、部门异质性与中国信贷渠道的存在性

在理论总结与对中国经济环境分析的基础上,文章从两个新的视角对中国货币政策信贷渠道进行了重新探讨:一是特定货币政策环境下公司融资结构调整;二是产权异质性条件下的信贷配给。研究结果表明,中国的独立信贷渠道的确存在,然而,其作用机制并非是基于像上市公司这样的企业的微观融资结构调整效应,而是经济中国有与非国有并存的产权异质性所导致的信贷配给效应。对于上市公司,独立信贷渠道的作用是微弱的,这一结果对于公司行业及规模是稳健的。实证结果同时显示,与通常的预期不同,在获取银行信贷方面处于相对优势地位的国有投资受银行信贷变化影响更大。     

Money Quantity and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Quantitative Analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of money stock on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic production economy with sticky prices. The numerical results indicate that a sufficient large quantity of money makes a noticeable difference in many aspects of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. They suggest that the volatile inflation in China may not be as bad as the existing theory would have implied if its large amount of money is taken into consideration.     

货币政策传导机制与货币政策有效性:争论与启示

我国当前以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导渠道将逐步被货币渠道所取代,货币政策传递的环境和条件不完善是制约我国货币政策传导效果的主要原因,我国货币政策传导效果存在明显的地区差异。     

我国货币政策信贷传导渠道的非对称效应及地区经济影响

文章以1996-2012年的相关季度统计数据,运用STR模型和LM统计检验方法,对我国货币政策信贷传导渠道的非对称效应及地区经济影响进行了实证研究。结果显示,我国货币政策信贷传导渠道效果存在明显的不对称特性,即具有很强的非线性特征;同时,这种不对称性对我国及东中西部地区的经济运行存在不同的影响。     

Using Romer and Romer's new measure of monetary policy shocks to identify the AD and AS shocks

This article re-examines the series of (exogenous) Federal Funds Rate (FFR) shocks created by Romer and Romer (2004) for the period 1969:01–1996:12. We hypothesize that if Romer and Romer have constructed a reasonable set of monetary policy shocks, then including them in a small Vector Autoregression (VAR) should help to identify other structural shocks that affected the United States economy during their sample period. Using a sample period of 1971:01–1996:12 we are easily able to identify both an Aggregate Demand (AD) shock and an Aggregate Supply (AS) shock without imposing any sign or long-run restrictions. We present historical decompositions that allow us to compare the relative importance of these shocks with that of the exogenous monetary policy shocks in explaining output fluctuations during the 1973–1975, 1980–1984 and 1990–1991 business cycle episodes.     

Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

This paper analyses the differences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for the three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.     

基于流动性过剩的财政政策和货币政策协调性研究

流动性过剩是当前中国宏观经济中的突出矛盾，影响了中国经济健康有序的发展。要解决流动性膨胀问题，不应该仅仅从银行体系这个角度来考虑，而应该从整个宏观经济平衡这个更为广泛的视角去分析和研究。这意味着仅仅依靠货币当局，沿用提高存款准备金率和存贷款利率、向市场发行央行票据等现有的货币政策手段来应对流动性膨胀，难以根治问题。应在运用货币政策的同时，配合财政政策，通过两大政策的协调配合，建立起消费主导的良性经济发展模式和合理的国民收入分配格局，才是应对流动性膨胀的治本之策。     

以功能为主线的征信体系模式及其制度配置——理论与实证

文章基于Merton等提出的金融体系的"功能—结构"思想,提出了以功能为主线的征信体系模式分类的理论,并以世界银行全球征信体系调研数据及其TT指数值为基础展开实证研究,基本印证了该理论,得到了四种主流功能模式,即惩戒型、惩戒监管型、促进型、监管促进型。文章采用验证性因子分析的方法,确定了制度主轴中关联性最大的8个指标,结合典型国家对不同征信模式在结构、内容和规则三个维度上的配置进行了实证性和描述性分析,总结出不同模式的典型制度配置。最后,文章给出了三点启示。     

商业银行小微企业信贷业务发展策略

从信息不对称情况下商业银行与小微企业的动态博弈分析切入,探索目前银行发展小微企业信贷业务的瓶颈及解决途径。结合SPP理论,运用"链式"思维,从商业银行如何确立优质的小微企业客户群体、如何引导小微企业信贷的客户经理拓展业务模式、如何加快金融产品及服务的创新速度等方面,深入探讨商业银行发展小微企业金融的可行方案。     

怎样看待当前的货币信贷形势——基于科学发展观的一个视角

针对当前我国经济领域中存在的货币信贷快速增长和固定资产投资反弹现象,本文从科学发展观视角全面剖析了当前货币信贷的运行轨迹,并就货币信贷快速增长与固定资产投资反弹可能引发的相关问题进行了思考.本文认为,当前我国货币信贷快速增长的根源在于人民币汇率的错配与国内实行的低利率甚至负利率所致,因此,当前我国的政策应当重点从加快利率市场化改革、加快汇率市场化改革、加快推进金融体制改革和加快推动金融市场建设等4个方面入手.     

基于中小物流企业价值的信用评级体系研究

物流金融在我国发展迅速,成为物流企业和金融企业拓展发展空间、增强竞争力的重要领域。但中小物流企业融资难仍然是制约其发展的主要瓶颈,已经成为第三方物流发展壮大的最大障碍。本文分析建立基于中小物流企业价值的信用评级体系的必要性,提出建立该信用评级体系的四个步骤,实现物流金融的科学化、精细化发展。     

货币政策对房地产市场供求影响的动态测度——基于状态空间模型的实证

本文基于状态空间模型,利用2002～2009年的季度数据,就货币政策中间变量利率和货币供应量对房地产市场需求和供给的影响进行了动态测度,结果表明,首先相对于利率政策而言,货币供应量对于房地产市场的供求的影响要更大;其次货币政策对房地产需求的影响比其对供给的影响要大,但对二者都只有短期影响而无长期影响;此外货币政策的短期影响随时间推移逐渐趋于平稳,其一定程度表明我国的房地产市场逐渐走向成熟。本文最后根据分析结论,提出了相应的政策建议。     

A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries

Alternative panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 14 Asian countries from 1970 to 2005. The effects of financial reforms are analyzed with estimates for two sets of sub-samples and two break dates. Our results show that money demand function has been stable and financial reforms are yet to have any significant effects. Since there is no evidence for instability in the demand for money, the central banks of these countries should use money supply, instead of the rate of interest, as the monetary policy instrument.     

A comparison of optimal policy rules prior to and during inflation targeting: empirical evidence from Bank of Canada

We examine policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting (IT) framework in a small macroeconomic model of the Canadian economy. We set up an optimal linear regulator problem and derive policy rules to compare the dynamics of pre-IT and IT eras. We find that while the optimal monetary policy rule in the pre-IT period is best described with a loss function that attaches equal weight to price stability, financial stability and output stability; the IT era is dominated by the price stability objective followed by the financial stability and output stability, consecutively. Moreover, we do not find an explicit role for exchange rate stability in the objective function of the Bank of Canada for both monetary policy eras. We, then, compare the properties of the derived optimal rules with those of an ad hoc Taylor rule for the IT period. In response to inflationary shocks, Taylor rule brings down inflation rates more quickly compared to the derived policy rules, but at the cost of a higher sacrifice ratio and more volatile interest rates.     

破解中小企业金融业务障碍的策略研究——基于中国工商银行信贷机制改革视角

面对高成长性和高风险性并存的中小企业金融市场,中国工商银行如何继续保持国内领先和国际先进的中小企业金融业务地位,并以此促进自身发展,是当前迫切需要解决的问题.从中国工商银行信贷机制改革视角出发,必须做好以下六点: (1)完善对职能部门和客户经理的激励与风险考核机制; (2)修正中小企业信贷客户评级授信体系; (3)建立体现效率的信贷授权审批机制; (4)培育专职的小企业客户经理队伍; (5)完善中小企业金融产品体系; (6)摸索建立新型风险防控体系.