美国信用评级业及其未来的监管政策调整

美国次贷危机的爆发使得信用评级机构声誉日下,同时也使得美国信用评级业存在的问题进一步暴露.金融创新背景下的美国信用评级业其实存在着许多内在矛盾和困境.因此,以下三个方面将是其监管政策调整的重点: (1)强化竞争机制,调整信用评级现有市场结构; (2)加强信息披露,提高评级活动的可审核性; (3)保证评级活动的独立性,促使评级结果的公正与客观.     

从次贷危机看我国中西部高速公路资产证券化

在世界金融危机日趋蔓延的背景下,我国政府及时出台了一系列加大投资拉动内需的举措,而解决建设所需资金问题又是其重中之重,资产证券化是较理想的融资方式。而美国次贷危机的渊源是资产证券化,在投资者对衍生产品持谨慎态度时,从次贷危机产生的原因入手,分析了次贷危机对我们的启示,并以山西为例分析了中西部高速公路资产证券化的可行性,最后提出具体的推进措施。说明高速公路资产证券化是解决当前基础建设资金需求的理想工具,也符合扩大内需的举措,我们应该有选择的大步推进资产证券化。     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

Monetary policy through the ‘credit-cost channel’: Italy and Germany pre- and post-EMU

We present an empirical analysis of the ‘Credit-Cost Channel’ (CCC) of monetary policy transmission. This channel combines bank credit supply and interest rates on loans as a cost to firms. The thrust of the CCC is that it makes both aggregate demand and aggregate supply dependent on monetary policy. As a consequence (1) credit market conditions (e.g. risk spreads) are important sources and indicators of macroeconomic shocks, (2) the real effects of monetary policy are larger and persistent. We have applied the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression (CVAR) econometric methodology to Italy and Germany in the ‘hard’ EMS period and in the European Monetary Union (EMU) period. The short-run and long-run effects of the CCC are detectable for both countries in both periods. Simulation of the estimated model also confirms that inflation-targeting by way of inter-bank rate control stabilizes inflation through structural shifts of the stochastic equilibrium paths of both inflation and the output.     

André Gorz: Freedom,Time and Work in the Post-Industrial Economy

This article assesses the thinking behind what is perhaps the single most important attempt to depoliticise monetary policy making in postwar Britain prior to the Bank of England Act 1998 – the introduction of the minimum lending rate (MLR) in October 1972. Drawing on recently released primary sources it argues that the MLR was devised to ‘defuse’ the political implications of Bank Rate policy and thereby shield the government from the consequences of frequent upward shifts in interest rates. MLR is considered as an experiment in ‘governing through the market’ and it is argued this has implications for how postwar monetary policy is viewed and how state/market relations are analysed, empirically and theoretically, within IPE.     

货币政策能否促进银行对小微企业信贷投放——基于宏观经济不确定视角的研究

本文研究在宏观经济不确定条件下,不同货币政策工具能否促进银行对小微企业信贷投放。首先,将货币政策引入考虑了宏观经济不确定性的银行资产组合模型中,论证货币政策、宏观经济不确定性与银行信贷资产配置的理论关系。然后利用我国181家银行2004—2018年的数据,检验在宏观经济不确定条件下,不同货币政策工具对银行小微企业信贷行为调控的作用效果。研究结果表明：宏观经济不确定性会抑制银行信贷行为。其中小微企业信贷占比较大的银行受到的影响更为显著。与数量型货币政策相比,价格型货币政策能够更显著地减轻不确定性对银行小微信贷的消极影响。其中银行同业拆借利率的调控效果最强。研究结论对于选择适宜的货币政策工具促进银行向小微企业信贷投放,化解经济不确定性对银行信贷行为的影响并助力小微企业发展等具有政策借鉴意义。     

通货膨胀对我国信贷渠道有效性的影响

学术界一般认为,由金融市场信息不对称所产生的逆向选择、道德风险和监控成本是信贷渠道存在的主要前提条件。在我国当前经济背景下,研究通货膨胀是否影响了我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效率。结果表明,通货膨胀导致了我国货币政策信贷渠道效率的下降。     

The Doctoral Origins of Economics Faculty and the Education of New Economics Doctorates

For the open economy, the workhorse model in intermediate textbooks still is the Mundell-Fleming model, which basically extends the investment and savings, liquidity preference and money supply (IS-LM) model to open economy problems. The authors present a simple New Keynesian model of the open economy that introduces open economy considerations into the closed economy consensus version and that still allows for a simple and comprehensible analytical and graphical treatment. Above all, their model provides an efficient tool kit for the discussion of the costs and benefits of fixed and flexible exchange rates, which also was at the core of the Mundell-Fleming model.     

基于信贷渠道视角的我国货币政策区域效应探析

我国地区之间的经济金融差异和统一货币政策产生的区域效应这两种现象互为因果、相互促进.只有提高货币政策决策的科学性和灵活性,并向欠发达地区实行财政政策和政策性金融倾斜,同时加强欠发达地区的金融生态建设,才能提高货币政策的有效性.     

货币政策传导渠道比较分析

货币政策通过货币渠道和信贷渠道两种途径传导,对于两种渠道在传导中的作用及效果学术界仍存在争议.本文通过对货币渠道和信贷渠道发挥作用的前提条件、传导过程及存在缺陷进行比较分析,得出两种传导渠道各有优劣的结论.只有将两种渠道有效地结合起来,才能使货币政策顺利传导,充分发挥作用.     

货币政策传导机制与货币政策有效性:争论与启示

我国当前以信贷渠道为主的货币政策传导渠道将逐步被货币渠道所取代,货币政策传递的环境和条件不完善是制约我国货币政策传导效果的主要原因,我国货币政策传导效果存在明显的地区差异。     

我国货币政策信贷渠道研究——基于贷款供给函数的再考察

货币政策信贷渠道是基于价格传导机制的放大效应,不能将其与信贷配给相混淆,而应理解为直接通过信贷供给的变动作用于实体经济的数量传导机制。运用CC-LM模型和贷款供给函数分析我国货币政策信贷渠道传导机制,并运用动态广义矩方法进一步估计我国货币政策贷款供给函数后得知:第一,虽然我国满足信贷渠道必须的金融摩擦条件,但是其所依附的价格传导机制并不畅通,无法放大货币政策的效果。第二,我国垄断性的银行业结构会影响货币政策的信贷传导机制。因此,未来的货币政策渠道将以规范化的利率渠道作为货币政策传导的主体,而信贷渠道应作为货币政策传导的辅助性机制存在。     

Social Provisioning as a Starting Point for Feminist Economics

The past decade has seen a proliferation of writing by feminist economists. Feminist economists are not identified with one particular economic paradigm, yet some common methodological points seem to be emerging. I propose making these starting points more explicit so that they can be examined, critiqued, and built upon. I use the term “social provisioning” to describe this emerging methodology. Its five main components are: incorporation of caring and unpaid labor as fundamental economic activities; use of well-being as a measure of economic success; analysis of economic, political, and social processes and power relations; inclusion of ethical goals and values as an intrinsic part of the analysis; and interrogation of differences by class, race-ethnicity, and other factors. The paper then provides brief illustrations of the use of this methodology in analyses of US welfare reform, gender and development, and feminist ecological economics.     

货币经济学新范式下我国货币政策对信贷的影响

本文首先介绍并对比了传统货币经济学与新范式所持的观点,指出在由货币政策到信贷的传导过程中两者观点的主要不同之处在于传导方式和影响程度,新范式认为银行行为决定信贷总量并且在货币政策向信贷的传导过程中存在多种效应。其次基于VAR模型对我国货币政策对信贷量的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明新范式观点在我国现阶段基本正确。最后提出了相应的政策建议:在法定存款准备金政策的运用上,要把握稳、准、狠的原则;在利率政策的运用上,要着重强调对存贷利差的调节,引导银行的贷款行为。     

政府信用创新——基于国债转贷政策的分析

对国债实施转贷是政府信用运作方式的一种创新.理论上,采取有偿方式运用国债资金,有利于提高政府信用资金的使用效率,但是,从审计部门国债资金审计报告及相关文献反映的情况看,这一创新的理论目标与实践效果之间存在明显差距.随着2008年国债转贷资金还本付息高峰期到来,国债资金使用低效问题将会逐步显现成为现实的信用问题,因此,从理论和实践意义上,对以国债转贷政策为内容的政府信用创新进行必要的反思,显然已是恰逢其时.