如何提高预测精度：作为一种过程的研究

预测未来很复杂,预测精度无疑是关键性的评价因素。为此,本文以提高精度为主线,试图通过对预测全过程的扫描,发现一些可能会带来预测理论突破的环节。本文从数据问题、时间影响、序列类型、方法选择、检验和校正等环节系统地分析了提高预测精度的一些方法或提出一些思路,其中有的是经验性的,有的则具有理论上的价值。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

提高煤质分析准确性的措施

煤炭是人们生产和生活中不可或缺的重要能源,并且具有不可再生性,在短时间内也无法使用其他的能源作为代替。积极开展煤质分析工作,保证该项工作的准确性,是提升煤炭能源使用效率的重要前提。在开展煤质分析工作的过程中,需要积极采用一些切实可行的措施和手段,提升分析结果的准确性。     

The Role of Green Collaborative Strategies in Improving Environmental Sustainability in Supply Chains: Insights from a Case Study

This article aims to quantify to what extent collaborative strategies are more effective than internal or organization‐level actions to green supply chains. In this regard, the impact of decisions made at different stages of a supply chain in a product's carbon footprint is quantified. Organizational and product carbon footprints are calculated using the Compound Method Based on Financial Accounts (MC3). The results underline that concentrating reduction efforts in some stages of the supply chain is more effective than implementing individual actions by the participants. Collaboration among the participants is needed to decide what practices are implemented, at what stage they are needed and how they are to be implemented. This article adds to the literature on supply chains and sustainability. Previous research suggests that collaborative strategies have great potential for reducing the carbon footprint of products, while indicating the need for empirical research to support this statement. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

合作型和谐社区规划途径——北京市东城区交道口的实践案例

在21世纪和谐理念在城市规划领域不断渗透的背景下,社区作为城市的基本地域单元,可以为建设和谐社会提供了微观层面的支持.本文基于社区视角,探讨适于中国城市的面向和谐、多元参与的合作型社区规划途径.本文提倡从以民为本等和谐理念以及全面发展的多元目标出发,寻求社区多元主体共同参与的协调合作机制,并提倡最终目标的和谐与规划过程的和谐并重.结合在北京市交道口的实践案例,通过建立"三层次-九阶段"合作过程模型,明确社区多元主体在各参与阶段的角色,突出顺序参与、损益评价、利益补偿等具体方法在规划过程中的运用.最后,强调通过社区集体行动将规划成果付诸实施,同时并注重社区后评价和反馈,维护和谐成果的可持续性.     

基于协同规划的步行城市建设策略——以墨尔本为例

对步行城市思想的产生背景做了概括总结,对国内外相关研究实践做了梳理分析,进而从内涵、价值两个层面对步行城市及其与步行系统的关系做了阐述,以上述理解为基础,结合研究方法提出了基于协同规划的步行城市建设策略,对步行系统与机动车交通、公共交通、公共空间、公共建筑以及骑行系统的协同规划意义做了论述,结合墨尔本步行城市建设实践总结并提出了上述五个纬度的协同规划实施途径。     

Valuation Accuracy and Infinity Horizon Forecast: Empirical Evidence from Europe

This paper focuses on the assumptions of infinite-horizon forecasting in the field of firm valuation. The estimate of long-run continuing values is based on the hypothesis that companies should have reached the steady state at the end of the period of explicit forecasts. It is argued that the equivalence between cash accounting and accrual accounting is the way of verifying the steady-state assumption, defined as the state when a firm earns exactly its cost of capital, i.e., what we would expect in pure-competition settings. From this definition, we derive that the "ideal" growth rate to use in steady state is equal to the reinvestment rate times Weighted Average Cost of Capital. To validate our approach, we collect a sample of 784 analyst valuations and compare how the implied target prices deviate from what the target prices would have been using the "ideal" steady-state growth rates. Using Logit and Cox regression models, we find that this deviation has predictive value over the probability that actual market price reaches the target price over the following 12-month period—the smaller the deviation the greater is the likelihood that the market price reaches the target price.     

体育产业空间规划初探——以广州市体育产业功能区布局规划为例

作为一种新兴的绿色产业、朝阳产业,体育产业将成为新常态下经济发展的新支柱,其空间规划愈发重要。在探析体育产业相关概念及特征的基础上,提出体育产业功能区是一种成熟的空间布局形态,并从该视角出发,以广州为例,提出体育产业空间规划应注重集群式规划、明确空间重点、促进城体融合,具体的规划方法可包括"分级规划"、"分类引导"、"多种规划模式"等。     

How Critical is Employee Orientation for Customer Relationship Management? Insights from a Case Study

abstract    This paper explores the interface of employee orientation and the Customer Relationship Management (CRM) process based on an in-depth case study of a leading firm in the UK automotive services sector. Employee orientation is embedded in the Organizational Culture (OC) of the firm and manifested through its key elements, notably assumptions, values, behaviours and artefacts. CRM consists of four organizational activities: strategic planning, information, value creation, and performance measurement sub-processes. Based on the case study evidence, the widely postulated link between CRM success and employee orientation is empirically supported and the mechanisms underlying this association elucidated.     

网络规划教育的特征及其未来发展趋势——基于全球规划教育慕课特征研究的启示

网络规划教育发展迅速,但学科对其研究较少.研究采集主流MOOCs平台的规划教育课程,与传统规划教育课程和相关文献进行比较研究,获得网络规划教育与传统规划教育在内容结构、学习时间、教育机构方面的特征和差异,并分析未来发展趋势.网络规划教育与传统规划教育在传播特征上并无本质区别,可理解为传统规划教育的网络版,介于传统规划教育和未来规划教育间的过渡模式.根据已有研究基础探索了未来规划教育的发展趋势和三大特征.     

Application of Quality of Life Indicators to Socioeconomic Problems:

Abstract . Liu has presented and applied to several categories of areas a method of estimating comparative values for measuring the quality of life. This method is analyzed and extended through an application permitting evaluation of social and economic policies for country towns in Australia. Issues in Liu's method, particularly relating to the procedure for standardizing measurements and a much-needed validation test, are examined and, it is hoped, resolved. The nature of Liu's results is compared with that of the Australian results and they are found to be similar, particularly in that the quality of life values were useful in explaining migration, and were even better in explaining certain components of migration. The study extended the method to analysis of policy choices.     

Current Quality of Life Indicators:

Abstract . Several recent attempts to measure the quality of life directly are examined. The indicators developed for this purpose seem incapable of correctly ranking locations or time periods. Variable aggregation schemes have not summarized data in a way which is useful to policy makers. Failures arise partly because researchers do not agree on the set of variables to be measured. More importantly, the methodology used has been inconsistent with proposed theoretical models and has resulted in indicators which violate accepted laws of economics. For example, neither diminishing returns not substitutability between quality of life “inputs” is recognized. Priority, it is believed, should be given solution of existing problems.     

提高混凝土施工质量的有效措施

本文简要论述了影响混凝土施工质量的因素、混凝土质量控制的基本内容及提高混凝土施工质量的几项措施进行研究和探讨。只有严格重视混凝土的各项标准和妥善处理施工的全过程,才能确保混凝土工程质量。     

如何提高公路工程预结算的正确性

文章就如何提高公路工程预结算的准确性进行了分析和探讨.     

利用服务质量差距模型提高电信企业服务营销质量

随着电信企业竞争越来越激烈,如何提高企业核心竞争力成为我国电信企业面临的首要问题。由于各国都加大了投入,技术的提升很难再有往日的竞争优势,服务成为企业间差别化的利器,我国电信企业长期处于“高高在上”的垄断地位,服务意识淡漠,服务质量不尽如人意,本文利用服务质量差距模型提出了提高服务质量的一些具体措施。     

如何提高公路工程预结算的正确性

文章就如何提高公路工程预结算的准确性进行了分析和探讨。     

The Use of Generalizability Theory to Improve International Lending Decisions

This paper demonstrates the application of generalizability theory, a statistical technique which explicitly recognizes multiple sources of measurement error, to the identification of error or inconsistency in commercial bank loan ratings. The approach allows decision makers to assess the reliability of the credit analysis process used in either international or domestic lending. A sample obtained from a large commercial bank is analyzed to determine whether. the credit analysts' evaluative skills or the rating criteria utilized contribute to variability in the score for each loan. The results indicate that differences in credit analysts' loan evaluations are an important source of error, suggesting a possible tradeoff between increased analysis costs and improved rating consistency.