Investor Overconfidence in Experimental Asset Markets across Market States

Abstract

This study explores how individual overconfidence adjusts after receiving extreme feedback that either supports or contradicts previous decision-making when buying or selling stocks. We find that highly contradicting feedback causes overconfidence to vanish as confidence declines sharply while supportive signals cause overconfidence to increase. Further evidence suggests that strong feedback impulses are associated with higher investor disagreement, supporting prior hypotheses that investors interpret such impulses differently. We also find that methodologies that measure overconfidence in prediction tasks systematically overstate confidence scores as respondents tend to fail to internalize stated confidence intervals appropriately.     

Overconfidence and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

This paper investigates the relationship between market overconfidence and occurrence of stock-price bubbles. Sixty participants traded stocks in 10 experimental asset markets. Markets were constructed on the basis of subjects' overconfidence: The most overconfident subjects form high overconfidence markets and the least overconfident subjects low overconfidence markets. Prices in low overconfidence markets tend to track the fundamental asset value more accurately than prices in high overconfidence markets and are significantly lower and less volatile. Additionally, we observe significantly higher bubble measures and trading volume in high overconfidence markets. Two possible explanations for these differences are analyzed: While price expectations are significantly higher in high overconfidence markets, no differences in the average degree of risk aversion were detected.     

风险承担、风险缓冲与管理理念——关于信托公司风险管理的思考

由于信托制度的独特设计,信托公司或直接或间接均要承担信托财产损失风险,从近期来看,信托公司应构建以资本金为核心的风险缓冲机制。从长期来看,引入业绩评价基准,进行相对业绩评价是信托公司风险缓冲的必然选择。信托公司在风险管理时应树立两个理念,一是要将风险管理列为企业管理活动的核心,二是要认识到风险管理是一项长期性的工作,不能寄希望“毕其功于一役”。     

Why Young Boys Stumble: Early Tracking,Age and Gender Bias in the German School System

Abstract. After primary school, German pupils are given a secondary school track recommendation. This recommendation and the actual track choice are strongly associated with later life outcomes. Using data from the German PISA 2000 extension study, we analyze the effect of relative age on track recommendations and actual choice. Younger pupils and boys are less likely to be recommended to and enrolled in the academic track (Gymnasium), the most attractive track in terms of later life outcomes. Flexible enrollment and grade retention partly offset these effects. We find no convincing evidence that postponing the recommendation by lengthening primary school by 2 years reduces the age or gender bias.     

地方政府支出有偏性、企业融资约束与经济结构失衡

文章基于地方政府视角下困扰当前中国经济增长的结构性现实问题,根据1993—2012年的中国省际年度数据,借鉴 Bernanke 等(1999)和 Fernández-Villaverde(2010)的分析思路,运用动态随机一般均衡模型,实证研究了经济结构失衡①与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加之间的内在逻辑关系。研究发现：(1)伴随着经济增长,东、中、西部的社会投资占 GDP 的比重不断地提高,而居民消费和劳动收入占 GDP 的比重则呈下降趋势,这些经济结构失衡的表现与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加是共存的。(2)通过对大企业模型、中小企业模型和粘性价格模型进行的模拟比较分析发现,地方政府发展经济的目的促使其支出行为表现为有偏性,引发了政府投资较大幅度的增加;基于融资约束,中小企业的投资增幅不大,而大企业投资高涨,引致了地方经济结构失衡的加剧,而在这传导机制中政府投资的正外部性、企业融资约束和金融摩擦担当重要角色。