On the analogy between field experiments in economics and clinical trials in medicine

Randomized experiments, as developed by Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), offer a novel, evidence-based approach to fighting poverty. This approach is original, in that it imports the methodology of clinical trials for application in development economics. This paper examines the analogy between J-PAL’s field experiments in development economics and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in medicine. RCTs and randomized field experiments are commonly treated as identical, but such treatment neglects some of the major distinguishing features that make each experiment specifically apt for use in its respective field. The central claim of this paper is that the analogy between medicine and development economics is incomplete because the central dimensions of RCTs are not simply different but altogether lacking in J-PAL’s approach. This weakens both the political and the theoretical power of such experiments in development economics.     

Vertical alliance and vertical integration for the inflow of technology and new product development in the pharmaceutical industry

Pharmaceutical firms are increasingly seeking vertical alliance (licensing and joint venture) or bridges and vertical integration (merger and acquisition, M&A) or buffers. However, the question remains whether alliance and integration modes of organisation contribute to the clinical trials activities for a new product development. Using data on 250 pharmaceutical firms, this study examines the linkage between the external technology-sourcing modes and an increase in clinical trials activities, advancing new product development. The findings indicate that licensing mode may not be an effective in comparison to joint ventures and M&A modes of the organisation. Comparing the two modes – vertical joint venture (bridges) and vertical integration (buffer) – the former appears to be effective than the latter (M&A) in sourcing external technology acquisition in the pharmaceutical industry. Implications of these findings are addressed in terms of strategy and structure in a broader context.     

Efficiency and its determinants in pharmaceutical industries: ownership,R&D and scale economy

The purpose of this article is to measure the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms and identify their determinants using Korean and American samples from 1992 to 2004. We document some stylized facts in the patterns and sources of efficiency change in Korean and American pharmaceutical firms. The evidence shows that ownership structure can substantially influence the efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. Especially, institutional ownership rate affects corporate efficiencies negatively, corroborating the myopic institutional investor hypothesis. The hypothesis is supported by both Korean and American samples. However, we find evidence that foreign ownership in Korea promotes efficiency of pharmaceutical firms. It is shown that R&D intensity is positively related to contemporaneous largest ownership rate and prior foreign ownership rate in Korean pharmaceutical firms. In contrast, little evidence is found on the relationship between ownership structure and R&D intensity in the American pharmaceutical industry. These empirical results are robust even after we check the causal links among efficiency, R&D and ownership.     

Economic Development and Women's Labor Force Participation in India

India has experienced steady economic growth over the last two decades alongside a persistent decline in women's labor force participation (LFPR). This paper explores the relationship between economic development and women's labor supply using state-level data spanning the period 1983–4 to 2011–2. While several studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between development and women's labor force participation, our results suggest that at the state level, there is no systematic U-shaped relationship between level of domestic product and women's LFPR. On examining the relationship between the structure of the economy and women's economic activity, we find that it is not economic growth but rather the composition of growth that is relevant for women. Further, our results suggest that aggregate changes in the proportion of women in the workforce can be mostly attributed to the movement of the workforce across sectors rather than changes in the proportion of women workers within a sector.     

Economic Impacts of Reducing NOx Emissions in Norway

Using a multisector computable general equilibrium model for the Norwegian economy, the impacts on main macroeconomic indicators of reducing NO_x emissions are analyzed. Seven specific technical measures regarding passenger cars, trucks, ships and industrial processes are studied. The measures have somewhat different impacts on the macroeconomy. Especially the measure pertaining to light and heavy duty trucks leads to an increase in GDP, because of higher income from indirect taxes. However, the sum of value added in the production sectors is reduced. The other measures cause a decrease in GDP. All in all, we find that the costs, in terms of reductions in GDP and private consumption, incurred from the introduction of additional NO_x emissions control measures are quite small.     

培训产业一体化发展的案例分析

在我国培训市场上,培训学校无论在其成立,还是随后的运作上,都应该符合国家政策法规的规定,应该站在长远的角度来审视自己,而不是短期的高收益。专业化教学才能造就培训市场竞争的优势。专业化的内涵是专业、精益、富有特色,外延是全面地、深入地、持续地体现品牌效应。我国应试培训产业在行业集中度相对较高的情况下,培训学校必须进一步扩大企业规模,形成经济规模壁垒,必要资本壁垒、资源占有壁垒或是产品差别壁垒,树立良好的企业形象,提高产业进入与退出成本,连锁经营的规模化道路是必然的选择。     

The impact of new goods and service products on firm growth: evidence from Austrian-linked firm-level data

Using a matched innovation survey and structural business statistics, we investigate the impact of the introduction of new service products and other types of technological innovations on firm growth measured as subsequent two-year employment growth. Results, based on median and robust regression methods for manufacturing firms, show that, on average, both the introduction of new goods and process innovations have a significant and positive impact on subsequent firm growth. In contrast, the introduction of new services does not, on average, have a significant impact on firm growth for both manufacturing and service firms. However, quantile regressions show that the introduction of new service products has a significant and positive impact on firm growth for high-growth service firms. Finally, in manufacturing, the introduction of product innovations has a positive impact on firm growth at both the lower and higher ends of distribution (i.e. for both high-growth and shrinking firms).     

Regional output growth and the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Mexico

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between national and regional output growth in Mexico, and the impact of domestic and international shocks on national, regional and state output movements. Our results suggest that there are similarities, but also significant differences, in real output dynamics across the regions and states of Mexico and that it would be wrong to regard the Mexican economy as a homogeneous entity. The results show that real output growth in Mexico and the United States are linked, but there is no common output trend for the two countries. At the regional level, it appears that North and Central Mexico share similar features, but the path of output growth is more distinctive in South Mexico. Overall, our results suggest that assessments of macroeconomic performance, and related discussions of policy, should pay greater attention to the potential diversity in regional performance.     

Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth

The paper analyzes the degree of output persistence in GDP in order toempirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model and the imperfect competition endogenous growth model for the case of Austria. Wefind that a shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model of endogenous growth.We may not reject the imperfect competition growth model.     

我国服务业增加值的核算问题

本文集中讨论我国服务业增加值估算中存在的问题。由于历史原因和服务业本身的一些特点 ,我国现价服务业增加值被严重地低估了 ,服务业增长率计算也可能存在着偏差。对服务业增加值的以往研究均受到基础数据的限制而未能根本地解决这些问题。服务业统计核算的缺陷严重地阻碍着经济分析和经济决策。因此 ,改善我国服务业统计核算是当务之急。从长远的角度来说 ,服务业增加值核算的改善在很大程度上取决于统计调查的完善。但是 ,在现有的条件下 ,仍然有很大的改善余地。     

A net impact analysis of active labour programmes in Hungary

This paper presents estimates of the impact on re-employment and earnings of the two most popular active labour programmes used during the economic transition in Hungary: retraining and public service employment (PSE). To adjust for non-random assignment of programme participants, net impacts were computed using matched pair samples and regression models. The evidence suggests retraining may improve the chance for reemployment, is unlikely to improve re-employment earnings, but may improve job durability. Net societal benefits could be improved by retraining relatively more males, older persons, and those with less education. PSE does not appear to provide a reliable path to a regular non-subsidized job, and may even lower re-employment earnings. PSE might best be viewed as an income transfer programme having the collateral benefit of maintaining basic work habits. The net societal impact of PSE could increase if it involved relatively more females and older persons.     

生产性服务对农业全球价值链分工地位的影响

生产性服务是增加值创造过程中重要的中间品投入,对农业嵌入全球价值链有重要影响。本文基于OECD AMNE投入产出数据,运用系统GMM模型考察生产性服务对农业全球价值链分工地位的影响。机制检验表明,生产性服务通过资源配置效应和规模经济效应来提高生产效率、降低贸易成本进而促进农业全球价值链分工地位的提升。从细分生产性服务来看,专业与科学技术服务、金融与保险服务投入均能显著提高农业全球价值链分工地位,运输和储存服务对农业全球价值链分工地位有一定正向影响,而信息和通讯服务对农业全球价值链前向参与度有负向影响,对后向参与度则有正向影响,因此需要加强农业产业链上游对农业信息技术的利用。本文研究结论为推动包括我国在内的发展中经济体的农业竞争力提升提供了值得借鉴的政策启示。     

项目导向型供应链知识流对项目价值增值影响的实证研究

选取合作主体、项目属性、知识流属性表征项目型组织间的知识流,将合作创新划分为流程创新、任务创新和组织创新,构建了项目导向型供应链跨组织知识流对项目价值增值影响的理论模型,并运用结构方程模型进行了实证检验。结果表明:知识流与合作创新、项目价值增值显著正相关;流程创新和组织创新对项目价值增值具有显著的正向影响,但任务创新的影响并不显著;合作创新在知识流与项目价值增值之间起部分中介效应。指出:在工程项目实施过程中,必须建立项目型组织间的信任和沟通机制,以促进项目型组织间的知识交互,加强合作创新,实现项目价值增值。     

The effect of VAT rate on inflation in Latvia: evidence from CPI microdata

This article evaluates the inflation effect of recent value added tax (VAT) rate changes in Latvia by using consumer price index (CPI) microdata. Our findings suggest that the pass-through of the tax rate to consumer prices is strong in case of upward tax adjustments, especially when there are no demand restrictions, while the pass-through is weaker for tax reductions. The frequency of price changes peaks at the moment of VAT adjustment, which, however, is partially compensated by lower average size of price revisions. The level of pass-through exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity with higher pass-through for goods, especially food, and lower for services.     

东北地区就业密度分布的空间特征——基于两次经济普查数据的空间计量经济分析

基于区域密度方程和空间统计方法,利用两次经济普查的就业数据对东北地区就业密度的空间特征进行了研究。结果表明,东北地区形成了一个向右倾斜的倒Y字型就业密度格局,从北向南已经形成和正在形成的次中心逐渐增多,沿海化趋势和局域融合趋势也比较明显,东北地区多中心就业格局已经形成。2004—2008年,东北地区整体就业密度的集中性还在继续加强,但不同局域就业中心表现出了不同的增长模式,黑龙江处于中心增长型扩散的单中心阶段,吉林省和辽宁省处于向心集聚和中心增长型扩散并存的多中心阶段,大部分就业中心均处于中心增长型扩散阶段,尚无去中心化扩散的就业中心。     

The impact of compatibility on innovation in markets with network effects

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the relationship between compatibility and innovation in markets with network effects using a model of competition with endogenous R&D, commercialization and compatibility. Compatibility is a mutual decision between firms and demand is partially dependent on overall consumption across compatible networks. Incumbent acquisition of an innovation or profit from entry provides entrepreneurs with an incentive for developing technological improvements and entrepreneurs receive greater returns if larger incumbents offer compatibility with their installed base. But for sufficiently weak network effects a large incumbent increases demand for its own product by denying compatibility to rivals. As a result, a credible threat of incompatibility reduces the entrepreneur's reserve to sell an innovation, but can also increase offers from smaller incumbents to acquire the innovation if it also avoids an incompatibility response from a larger incumbent. In response, entrepreneurs adjust their research effort in order to target a favourable compatibility regime that maximizes profit from entry or offers to acquire the innovation from incumbents. This leads to a complex relationship between the strength of network effects, innovation incentives, the entrepreneur's ambition for improvement and potentially disrupting the compatibility regime.     

A tale of two states: asymmetries in the UK small,value and momentum premiums

This article performs comparative analysis of the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium and their macroeconomic determinants over the UK economic cycles, using Markov switching approach. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn. We find clear evidence of cyclical variations in the three premiums, most notable being that in the size premium, which changes from positive in expansions to negative in recessions. Macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are variables that proxy credit market conditions, namely the interest rates, term structure and credit spread. Overall, macro factors tend to have more significant impact on the three premiums during economic downturns. The results are robust to the choice of information variable used in modelling transition probabilities of the two-stage Markov switching model. We show that exploiting cyclicality in premiums proves particularly profitable for portfolios featuring small cap stocks in recessions at a feasible level of transaction costs.