加强市场基础建设 提高风险预警能力——希腊主权债务危机的反思

近来,希腊债务危机成为全球经济舆论的焦点。文章指出,希腊债务危机是希腊经济自身缺陷、主权债务信息披露不完善、欧元区体制弊端等问题的集中体现。借鉴希腊债务危机的教训,我们应进一步强化信息披露对金融市场发展基础性作用的认识,通过发展直接融资促进地方政府融资的显性化,并尽快建立和完善我国金融市场的风险监控、预警和处理机制。     

The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

从日本韩国经验看美国“不良资产处置计划”

该文首先分析了美国财政部建立的“不良资产处置计划”的预期政策效果,认为美国次贷危机是“百年一遇的金融危机”,影响广泛、传播迅速,为了确保金融体系的稳定性,组建专门的不良资产处置计划非常有必要。同时,文章回顾了20世纪90年代日本和韩国为应对当时的金融危机,所采取的处置巨额金融机构不良资产的一些举措,认为美国的不良资产处置计划在其运作方式及收购价格的确定方面可以借鉴日本和韩国的经验和教训。     

Investors’ preference towards risk: evidence from the Taiwan stock and stock index futures markets

We apply the stochastic dominance (SD) tests proposed by Linton et al. (2005) and Davidson and Duclos (2000) for risk averters and risk seekers to examine investors’ preferences with respect to the Taiwan stock index and its corresponding index futures. We find that there is no first‐order SD relationship between Taiwan spot and futures. However, for second‐ and third‐order SD, we find that spot dominates futures for risk averters whereas futures dominates spot for risk seekers. The implication is that to maximize their expected utilities, risk averters prefer to buy stocks, whereas risk seekers prefer long index futures.