Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals

The application of formal expert judgement for assessing quantitative data of the toxicity of large amounts of inhaled chemical substances after a potential major hazards incident is described. In this particular application, the expert assessments were used to derive probit relations for the acute lethal effects of five hazardous substances: ammonia, acrylonitrile, hydrogen fluoride, sulphur trioxide and azinphos-methyl. The purpose of the study was to develop a protocol for selecting experts and the elicitation and analysis of expert assessments, to apply this protocol to generate probit relations for representative substances, and to evaluate the overall performance of the protocol. The use of formal expert judgement includes quantitative estimates of variables, calibration of experts and representation of uncertainty on the variables. This enables analysts to optimize combined experts' assessments for establishing quantitative results for further use in probit relations. Twenty-seven experts, distributed over the five substances, gave medians and 90% central confidence bands of the lethal dose-response relations under several conditions. The calculated dose-response relations are shown and compared to existing probit relations with respect to its impact on risk assessment outputs. The calculated relations can be applied in quantitative risk assessments, for example, under the Dutch law on major hazards installations. The scientific and practical efforts and costs of using the expert judgement technique are described.     

中国会计理论研究的国际化:基于国际会计与财务学术期刊的初步分析

本文较为系统地整理和分析了20余年来国际会计与财务学术期刊发表的有关中国会计问题的200余篇研究成果。分析显示:(1)中国会计问题已经积累了相当数量和质量的国际学术研究成果,且近年来的增长趋势明显;(2)作者群主要为华人学者,地区分布广泛;(3)研究方法经历了从规范研究向实证研究为主的转变;(4)研究主题与中国的政治、经济改革以及文化特征密切相关,突出反映了中国特殊的制度背景与研究机会;(5)中国大陆学者在中国会计理论研究的国际化进程中总体贡献比较有限,但近年来发挥的作用明显增强。     

Problematizing international business futures through a ‘critical scenario method’

This paper proposes the need for change in how managers in international business (IB) determine organisational objectives and what criteria they use in addressing complex problems. We propose a move from a largely firm-centric focus; on profit maximization and shareholder value; to a broader societal and environmental view. We see the educational context as the locus for initiating such a shift. However, we see obstacles within the canon of mainstream IB textbooks, with their focus on exposition of normative models of managerial action, illustrated by case studies of successful multinational enterprises (MNEs). Whilst we acknowledge their incorporation of critical issues, we view the lack of substantive critical reflection on the wider implications of IB activity as underpinned by an implicit assumption of the ‘good’ of IB. We posit that the normative structure of mainstream texts militates against students understanding the full range of possible futures for IB practice, and against developing the capability to cope with situations of uncertainty and ambiguity. Seeking to promote a critical pedagogy that accommodates consideration of both mainstream approaches and critical responses to these, we propose one approach to teaching and learning about IB futures that is based upon development of what we term ‘critical scenario method’. This offers a basis for active investigation of complex problems in the ‘real’ world from a range of perspectives, beyond that of profit maximization. We provide a worked, case example of our new method and demonstrate how it will enhance perceptions/understandings of involved and affected actors’ interests and their likely (re)actions as a particular scenario unfolds. The theoretical grounding for this approach is based upon contemporary social science interpretation of the Aristotelian concept of phronēsis, or ‘practical wisdom’.     

Commentary on Parker: Groundhog Day and optimism

This paper seeks to provide a supportive commentary to the paper by Lee Parker that assesses the deliverables and relevance of qualitative accounting research. This commentary on Parker's work focuses more narrowly than Parker and concentrates on the differences between qualitative research and approaches adopting a positivistic or normative perspective and less on the exemplars in the management accounting literature. The commentary will seek to explore these differences by reverting to a broader social science literature. The commentary will argue for recognising the complementarity of different research approaches – recognising difference and but recognising the strengths of both; bringing their understandings together when it helps to do so, but not seeking to combine them and ignore their difference roots; not seeking to privilege any approach over any other apart from recognising that different questions need different approaches to answer them. At the latter end of this commentary I offer some solutions that might be considered in relation to the building of a body of knowledge, using the ideas of middle range thinking. Finally I develop some suggestions to meet for Parker's call for us to make efforts to communicate more broadly and argue for the academic accounting community to consider interdisciplinary engagement with the arts.     

我国管理科学研究热点及代表人物的可视化分析

进入新世纪以来,管理科学在我国取得了蓬勃的发展,逐渐形成了庞杂的学科知识体系,与此同时,管理学也涌现了一大批管理科学专家,并在各自的领域中作出了卓越的贡献。利用中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)2000～2009年的20种管理科学重要期刊文献为数据,从文献计量的角度对我国管理科学十年来的发展进行分析,通过可视化分析工具CiteSpace展示了企业与事业单位管理、管理基础与方法、宏观管理与政策研究三个主要的学科领域的代表人物和研究热点。     

A pragmatist approach to transdisciplinarity in sustainability research: From complex systems theory to reflexive science

The importance of questioning the values, background assumptions, and normative orientations shaping sustainability research has been increasingly acknowledged, particularly in the context of transdisciplinary research, which aims to integrate knowledge from various scientific and societal bodies of knowledge. Nonetheless, the concept of reflexivity underlying transdisciplinary research is not sufficiently clarified and, as a result, is hardly able to support the development of social learning and social experimentation processes needed to support sustainability transitions. In particular, the concept of reflexivity is often restricted to building social legitimacy for the results of a new kind of ‘complex systems science’, with little consideration of the role of non-scientific expertise and social innovators in the design of the research practice itself.The key hypothesis of the paper is that transdisciplinary research would benefit from adopting a pragmatist approach to reflexivity. Such an approach relates reflexivity to collective processes of problem framing and problem solving through joint experimentation and social learning that directly involve the scientific and extra-scientific expertise. To test this hypothesis, the paper proposes a framework for analysing the different types of reflexive processes that play role in transdisciplinary research. The main conclusion of the analysis is the need to combine conventional consensus-oriented deliberative approaches to reflexivity with more open-ended, action-oriented transformative approaches.     

How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece: Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts

We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert's personal and country‐level attributes. Country‐level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programmes of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.     

抓住机遇,开拓进取,努力开创内蒙古高校科技工作的新局面

近年来,内蒙古高校科技工作取得了显著成效:综合科技实力持续提高;教学与科研二元化发展模式基本确立;学科结构不断优化;培养出一批本土学科带头人;有效整合了创新资源。同时也面临着如下问题:高校科技工作与自治区经济社会重大需求不相适应;科技创新动力不足;科技投入力度不够;创新平台综合利用和集约化程度差;政策支撑环节仍然薄弱。因此,要努力抓好一项规划;提升两个能力;实施三大行动;在科技计划中突出六大重点,实现高效科技工作新局面。     

A new social contract for technology? – On the policy dynamics of uncertainty

This paper proposes a typology of two fundamentally opposing conceptualizations of managing technology under uncertainty: ‘technology governability’ and ‘technology selection’. A wide variety of different versions of these idealized conceptualizations can be shown to underlie the controversies about scientific‐technological development. The example of genetic engineering indicates that such points of view are reconstructed over time in different forms and diverse settings, not only by the scientific community or during regulatory decision making, but by a rather wide‐reaching spectrum of social actors. Thus, the current efforts to open up science and technology decision making to a wider range of participants is interpreted here as an effort of generating a new social contract for technology management, by way of bridging the differences between the two opposing conceptualizations.     

An assessment of futures studies worldwide

This article is based on a recent survey of the futures field. For a report of the survey, see Futures Studies : An International Survey by John McHale and Magda Cordell McHale. The full report on the survey was published by UNITAR, December 1975 and may be purchased from UN Sales Section, Room LX 2300, New York, NY 10017, USA or from Palais de Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. The expansion of the subject is shown by the growing number of conferences, publications, secretariats and commissions, and the subject is characterised by a drive for professional recognition and higher standards of methodological rigour. Changes in futures studies include: the shift from linear forecasting towards more normative modes that consider a range of alternative futures; and a new predominance of social science over physical science among practitioners. Whereas futures studies used to have the appearance of a disciplinary enclave it now appears increasingly like a social movement, attracting a degree of involvement similar to that of the civil rights movement, ecology, or consumerism.     

网上银行基本问题探究

近年来,随着基金业务的发展、银行网点拥堵等问题的凸现,网上银行业务取得了长足发展。工商银行计划在10年内将70％的业务转移到网上银行。但从研究者的角度,关于网上银行的一些基本问题必须提出。这些问题包括：负责网上银行业务的部门或称网上银行部,或称电子银行部,这些名称的内涵是什么？差别在哪里？各商业银行不断推出第三代、第四代、新一代网上银行系统,其内涵是什么？再下一代该称什么？新新一代,还是新新新一代？再者,网上银行业务种类渐多,用户操作愈渐复杂。我们不禁要问：网上银行服务内容组织的基本原则应当是什么？商业银行提供优质网银服务需要什么样的能力？     

Risk perception of mobile communication: a mental models approach

Some lay people confronted with a new base station project fear serious health consequences from the high‐frequency radiation, while experts consider exposure under the current international standards as unproblematic. These conflictive estimations may be attributed to the different mental models of lay people and experts. Less is known about lay people’s knowledge in regard to mobile communication and their intuitive understanding of the associated health risks. An adaptation of the ‘Mental Models Approach’ was used to reveal lay people’s beliefs about mobile communication and to learn more about lay people’s information requirements, potential knowledge gaps, and misconceptions. Through the means of open interviews with Swiss experts (N = 16), lay people (N = 16), and base station opponents (N = 15), different mental models were constructed and evaluated. Comparisons between the expert and the lay groups showed several qualitative differences in all identified knowledge domains. Knowledge gaps in regard to changing exposure magnitudes due to the interaction patterns of cell phones and base stations as well as misconceptions about regulation issues and scientific processes were found in both lay groups. In addition, lack of trust in responsible actors and disaffection with base station location processes were mentioned. The reported qualitative insights may be useful for the improvement of further risk communication tools.     

现代公司治理中的决策规则研究

构建科学的决策规则体系是解决公司治理问题的关键,国内外学者在决策权的配置、决策程序的划分、评价准则的取舍等方面各抒己见,但对于如何设计这一体系目前仍缺乏系统性的研究。本文通过对国内外已有研究成果加以综合分析评价,提出了今后可能的研究方向,以期对此问题的进一步研究提供线索。     

Global challenges

Powerful possibilities offered by modern science and technology are increasingly being tested for their ecological suitability. Cultural and ethical concerns are beginning critically to affect the development and use of technology. The regular character of a synergy required to evaluate scientific-technological progress points to the appearance of a new technological paradigm which is based on intelligence. The new paradigm can already be recognized in general trends. At the same time it is both visionary and normative, since it promotes the search for adequate answers to the global challenges with which we are faced.     

Peak energy and climate change: The double bind of post-normal science

Insofar as the viability of industrial society is at stake, energy supply and climate change are not normal scientific issues. Fossil fuel is the ultimate finite resource, and the atmosphere the ultimate finite sink. There is dispute about the most fundamental issues and values to be promoted or defended. The concept of post-normal science has been introduced for precisely this kind of situation, where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent (Ravetz [1, p. 349]).” Although this applies equally to energy supply and climate change, the related knowledge regimes offer a remarkable contrast. Mainstream energy science, on the one hand, has refused to engage in post-normal science. The accredited experts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) and elsewhere have left “peak energy” to mavericks at the fringes or outside mainstream scientific discourse. Consequently, the pressing issue of future energy scarcity has been kept from the public agenda. Official climate science, on the other hand, has embraced post-normal science. But even though the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been uniquely successful in placing climate change on the public agenda, the inherent ambiguities of post-normal science have plunged climate science into a deep legitimacy crisis. Most people prefer denial and self-deception to an unvarnished vision of the truth when intractable problems such as peak energy and climate change are at stake. In such cases, scientists are in a double bind: they are damned if they do and doomed if they do not engage in post-normal science.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

On applied science, prediction and contingency

Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequently the use and impact of futures research, since this will set a cyclic process between theory and practice in motion. An important condition for ensuring this is to increase the amount of empirical research concerning the way futures research is carried out in real life; 2) a reappraisal of predicting the future: although history has shown that predicting the future is difficult, stating that, in the future, predictions will not be a part of futures research is in itself a prediction. In fact, predictions can serve as valuable starting points for discourses on the future; 3) the context of futures research: futures researchers should be more aware of the context in which they do their work. This can significantly enhance the usability of futures research but it also means that futures researchers should become more flexible in applying their methods and processes.     

The history of Western futures studies: An exploration of the intellectual traditions and three-phase periodization

The main purpose of this paper is to present a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification. In order to reach this goal, the following intellectual traditions are introduced to review the philosophical and historical contexts that affect the very foundations of futures studies: (a) religions, (b) utopias, (c) historicism, (d) science fiction, and (e) systems thinking. The first phase (beginning in 1945 to the 1960s) was the era of scientific inquiry and rationalization of the futures characterized by the prevalence of technological forecasting, the rise of alternative futures in systematic ways, and the growth of professionalization of futures studies. In the first phase, futures had become objects of rationalization removed from the traditional approaches such as utopia, grandiose evolutionary ideas, naive prophecies, science fiction, religious attitudes, and mystical orientation. The second phase (the 1970s and the 1980s) saw the creation the global institution and industrialization of the futures. This era was marked by the rise of worldwide discourse on global futures, the development of normative futures, and the deep involvement of the business community in futures thinking. In the second phase, futures studies-industry ties were growing and the future-oriented thoughts extensively permeated the business decision-making process. The third phase (the 1990s – the present) reflects the current era of the neoliberal view and fragmentation of the futures. This phase is taking place in the time of neoliberal globalization and risk society discourses and is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation. In the third phase, futures practice tends to be confined to the support of strategic planning, and hence is experiencing an identity crisis and loss of its earlier status of humanity-oriented futures.     

The Adequacy of Pre‐purchase Due Diligence in Independent Small Business and Franchising

This research reports an in‐depth study of the due diligence activities that prospective independent small business operators and franchisees in Australia undertake prior to purchasing or starting up their businesses. Although academic literature and industry publications promote undertaking ‘proper due diligence’, there is a lack of empirical research into the nature of due diligence and its effect on business outcomes. Using a qualitative approach, 60 currently and formerly operating independents and franchisees were personally interviewed, exploring the diversity of approaches to undertaking due diligence prior to entering business. The research revealed that differences occur in both the type and amount of due diligence undertaken by independents and franchisees and highlighted further differences between current and former operators. In general, the due diligence undertaken by participants was relatively unsophisticated with few exceptions of rigour and planning. Where prospective independents and franchisees were entering business for the first time, their appreciation of business was naïve. A steep learning curve followed during which they often recognised flaws in their initial research. As a result of this qualitative in‐depth research, we present a set of propositions regarding due diligence and a model for future testing on a large sample.