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1.
Scientific controversies are associated with significant uncertainty. Despite this uncertainty, available knowledge must be communicated to the public, who are potentially at risk. There are contradictions in the existing literature about the value of communicating uncertainty associated with science. Some scientists and decision-makers believe that communicating uncertainty to the public will produce panic and confusion, and will discredit science. Others believe that uncertainty must be communicated to increase trust in science. We tested reactions to communication about uncertainty related to the controversial link between exposure to endocrine disrupters and a decline in human male fertility. Our empirical setup used focus groups and qualitative analysis of participants’ perceived uncertainty and their emotions. The results show that laypeople raise more and different uncertainties than those communicated by researchers. Moreover, laypeople did not react to uncertainty ‘globally;’ they had different reactions to the different sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty did not elicit panic in this case study. Rather, uncertainty was reassuring, except when it was associated with an inability to precisely identify and, therefore, control the cause of male reproductive disorders. We discuss the emotions expressed and their relationships with communication about scientific uncertainty (powerlessness, guilt, outrage, etc.). We also note that feelings of confusion increase after uncertainty has been communicated. 相似文献
2.
《Futures》2015
If we postulate a need for the transformation of society towards sustainable development, we also need to transform science and overcome the fact/value split that makes it impossible for science to be accountable to society. The orientation of this paradigm transformation in science has been under debate for four decades, generating important theoretical concepts, but they have had limited impact until now. This is due to a contradictory normative science policy framing that science has difficulties dealing with, not least of all because the dominant framing creates a lock-in. We postulate that in addition to introducing transdisciplinarity, science needs to strive for integration of the normative aspect of sustainable development at the meta-level. This requires a strategically managed niche within which scholars and practitioners from many different disciplines can engage in a long-term common learning process, in order to become a “thought collective” (Fleck) capable of initiating the paradigm transformation. Arguing with Piaget that “decentration” is essential to achieve normative orientation and coherence in a learning collective, we introduce a learning approach—Cohn's “Theme-Centred Interaction”—which provides a methodology for explicitly working with the objectivity and subjectivity of statements and positions in a “real-world” context, and for consciously integrating concerns of individuals in their interdependence with the world. This should enable a thought collective to address the epistemological and ethical barriers to science for sustainable development. 相似文献
3.
AbstractThis paper explores the role of consensus statements in a risk society. It uses Beck’s theory of risk to show that scientists have employed consensus statements in order to re-establish faith in science. Through analysing the goals of participants in consensus fora and comparing them to the fora processes, this paper considers how consensus statements and guidelines in public health can be viewed as remedies for the decline in expert trust experienced in the current risk society. To collect data, 25 interviews were undertaken with consensus panel participants from the USA, UK and Australia. Interviewees were from peak national agencies/commissioning agencies and were categorised as policymaker, practitioner and consumer stakeholders. Participants made recommendations for improving consensus processes in order to mitigate perceptions of risk. These were: (1) clearly stated goals; (2) robust, evidence-based and transparent processes of methodological development and participation/deliberation/decision-making; (3) diverse stakeholder representation, including increased consumer participation; (4) transparency about conflicts of interest; and, (5) robust, carefully worded recommendations. Poor-quality consensus statements can further entrench scepticism about the scientific enterprise. While consensus statements can be seen as a tool for moderating perceptions of risk, policymakers and scientists must ensure the integrity, strength and transparency of their research methods. This has the potential to facilitate policy, improve scientific accountability to the public and legitimise processes. While fostering greater trust is not a primary objective for scientists, an increase in legitimacy of process can be an important unintended consequence of improved quality consensus statements and an important antidote to the risk society. 相似文献
4.
田颖男 《内蒙古财经学院学报(综合版)》2008,(3):1-4
近年来,内蒙古高校科技工作取得了显著成效:综合科技实力持续提高;教学与科研二元化发展模式基本确立;学科结构不断优化;培养出一批本土学科带头人;有效整合了创新资源。同时也面临着如下问题:高校科技工作与自治区经济社会重大需求不相适应;科技创新动力不足;科技投入力度不够;创新平台综合利用和集约化程度差;政策支撑环节仍然薄弱。因此,要努力抓好一项规划;提升两个能力;实施三大行动;在科技计划中突出六大重点,实现高效科技工作新局面。 相似文献
5.
王宝国 《内蒙古财经学院学报(综合版)》2012,10(5):130-134
关于社会科学研究的原因与条件、可能与现实、目的与手段、方法和结果、价值与意义,社会科学共同体内部既有某种程度的共识,也存在着较大的争议。针对社会科学研究中的分歧与争议,本文试图从社会科学研究的缘起、方法、终归的线索做出解答。 相似文献
6.
《Futures》2013
The question of intergenerational obligation can be framed in multiple ways. Here, we use the idea of bargains to think about how those of us in the present relate to both the past and the future. To understand this approach assumptions behind the idea of intergenerational bargains are posited, three potential ontologies for intergenerational thinking are explored, and principles that might be applied to intergenerational obligations are considered. Finally, an ethic for intergenerational obligation is proposed. The idea of intergenerational bargains reveals common frameworks among futures studies, ecological economics, and sustainability science. 相似文献
7.
This paper presents an analysis of the concept of scientific substantiation in European health claims regulation. It focuses on the controversies about the demand for the establishment of cause-and-effect relationships between food consumption and health outcomes in claim substantiation. Our analysis, on the basis of regulatory and scientific documents, identifies two opposing views about the aims of health claims regulation. Each of these two stances links certain regulatory objectives with specific epistemic policies, that is particular sets of scientific methodology, criteria, and procedure. The regulators, in selecting a demanding evidentiary approach based on a hierarchy of methodologies that requires causal data for substantiation of claims, give priority to preventing the authorization of false claims. The opposing view, espoused by the critics of this approach, opts for less demanding requirements for substantiation, implying the market availability of a wider range of products with health claims that may provide individual as well as public health benefits. We argue that one of the objectives that underlie the European regulators’ demand for causal data is to protect their own credibility, by trying to isolate them from value-laden debates about the limitations of scientific methodologies, as well as the societal and policy implications of regulatory decision-making. 相似文献
8.
Ugo L. Businaro 《Futures》1983,15(6):463-477
A synthetic theory of evolution is taken as representing the metaphor for the process of innovation. The model is employed to highlight major characteristics of changes in technological innovation and in the time phasing of industrial inventions and innovations. Analysis at the level of the industrial sector is used as a heuristic example of the metaphor, with a focus on innovations in the car industry. Forecasting future products is seen as related to materials requirements, primary human needs and the role of the service sectors. 相似文献
9.
Dan M. Kahan 《Journal of Risk Research》2017,20(8):995-1016
This paper describes the ‘ordinary science intelligence’ scale (OSI_2.0). Designed for use in the empirical study of risk perception and science communication, OSI_2.0 comprises items intended to measure a latent capacity to recognize and make use of valid scientific evidence in everyday decision-making. The derivation of the items, the relationship of them to the knowledge and skills OSI requires, and the psychometric properties of the scale are examined. Evidence of the external validity of OSI_2.0 is also presented. Finally, the utility of OSI_2.0 is briefly illustrated by its use to assess standard survey items on evolution and global warming: when administered to members of a US general population sample, these items are more convincingly viewed as indicators of one or another latent cultural identity than as indicators of science comprehension. 相似文献
10.
证券市场机构投资者投资行为分析 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
本文基于信息经济学和行为金融学的框架,考虑信息成本和投资者的有限理性,建立模型进行分析。通过实证研究进一步发现,中国证券市场的机构投资者的投资行为趋于价值化、长期化,而且上市公司质量、政府监管、机构投资者数量和中小投资者的学习能力对机构投资者的行为均有重要影响。基于实证结论和我国现实情况,提出相关建议。 相似文献
11.
进入新世纪以来,管理科学在我国取得了蓬勃的发展,逐渐形成了庞杂的学科知识体系,与此同时,管理学也涌现了一大批管理科学专家,并在各自的领域中作出了卓越的贡献。利用中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)2000~2009年的20种管理科学重要期刊文献为数据,从文献计量的角度对我国管理科学十年来的发展进行分析,通过可视化分析工具CiteSpace展示了企业与事业单位管理、管理基础与方法、宏观管理与政策研究三个主要的学科领域的代表人物和研究热点。 相似文献
12.
Jasdeep S. Banga B. Wade Brorsen 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2019,26(1):32-45
Past efforts determining the profitability of technical analysis reached varied conclusions. We test the profitability of a composite prediction that uses buy and sell signals from technical indicators as inputs. Both machine learning methods, like neural networks, and statistical methods, like logistic regression, are used to get predictions. Inputs are signals from trend‐following and mean‐reversal technical indicators in addition to the variance of prices. Four representative commodities from agricultural, livestock, financial, and foreign exchange futures markets are selected to determine profitability. Special care is taken to avoid data snooping error. Both neural networks and statistical methods did not show consistent profitability. 相似文献
13.
Lucas Bergkamp 《Journal of Risk Research》2017,20(10):1275-1291
Beck’s risk society has become a highly influential theory in sociology and has begun to influence risk policy-making and regulation. The theory has been given too much credit, however. This article identifies and analyzes the troubling features of risk society, and demonstrates that it is a loose set of vague ideas, feelings, and hunches, rather than a theory. Risk society, as distinguished from modern industrial society, is a risk management society concerned with the identification and distribution of risks arising from industrial activities, while downplaying natural and other risks. Devoid of empirical content and analytical tools, it promotes a simplistic precautionary anti-industrial environmental and safety ethic. Risk society involves politicization of science and self-interested activism in risk management decision-making. Due to its unrealistic dogmas, ambitions, and side effects, risk society is unable to manage risks effectively and efficiently, and poses a threat to constitutional democracy. Policy-makers and risk managers, therefore, should not rely on risk society theory in designing and implementing risk management structures and regulations. 相似文献
14.
本文以主成分分析方法进行指标蕴含信息的整合,重新组合一组线性无关的综合性指标,运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对山东省科技金融投入进行效益评价。研究结果表明,山东省2000—2010年的金融投入重数量、轻质量,重速度、轻基础,呈现出DEA无效状态。基于此,山东省科技金融发展应转变发展方向,走可持续、集约化的发展路径。 相似文献
15.
以指标体系的构建理论为基础,采用因子分析和回归分析等计量经济学方法,构建了\"量化\"判断外资对我国保险业发展综合影响的模型.模型检验结果表明:现阶段外资保险公司进入国内市场对我国保险业的发展在总体上有促进作用. 相似文献
16.
文章在梳理中央国库现金管理发展及货币市场利率体系的基础上,采用协整方程和误差修正模型实证检验了中央国库现金管理中标利率与同业拆借利率和回购利率之间的协整关系,研究表明其与二者均存在长期协整关系,误差修正模型的调整力度为0.8。文章分析了这种长期趋势存在的现实原因。最后结合实证分析中样本出现的特点,就进一步完善中央国库现金管理提出建议。 相似文献
17.
为了能够提高我国证券市场价值投资的应用水平,对我国证券市场价值投资进行实证研究,结果表明,我国证券市场仍是一种新兴的证券市场,处于由非有效市场向弱有效市场的转型中。随着上市公司质量的不断提升,价值投资策略将成为证券市场的主流形式。 相似文献
18.
基于对出口价值构成中行业增加值出口的形式、流向以及途径的区分,从价值链的视角改进了传统的显性比较优势指数,测算12个主要贸易大国1995~2011年制造业和服务业各行业的显性比较优势。结果表明:贸易格局的总体趋势表现为发达国家在巩固制造业高端环节优势的同时又将服务业特别是金融服务业、信息服务业以及商务网络等方面的优势渗透进来,建立起服务于全球的新体系,新兴市场国家则逐渐在不同要素密集度以及不同层次的制造业方面加紧布局。加强贸易与产业的结合,有助于我国通过增加值间接出口的方式参与国际竞争。 相似文献
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从狭义和广义两个视角界定地方隐性债务的内涵与核算边界,采用核算法分别测度2007—2018年狭义地方隐性债务和广义地方隐性债务的规模,结果发现其量巨大且年增速分别为4.44%和5.66%;在样本期内,狭义地方隐性债务呈现平缓上升的特征,广义地方隐性债务则具有明显的波动性增长趋势。对地方隐性债务规模及成因进行量化分析发现,政策性补贴是狭义地方隐性债务的重点构成部分,PPP和狭义隐性债务是广义地方隐性债务较大的主要内部原因,而公益项目投资力度、财权与事权不匹配则是诱发变相举债的重要外部因素。 相似文献