中东欧经济转型的成就与挑战

文章对中东欧经济转型进行了回顾,指出了中东欧经济转型的特点。在此基础上,文章分析了中东欧经济转型的成就,强调中东欧国家在建立市场经济体制和经济发展上取得了重大进展。与此同时,目前遭受全球金融危机冲击的中东欧国家也面临着许多挑战,需要推动许多领域,特别是社会领域的改革。     

Supply and demand factors in the output decline in East and Central Europe

What are the relative weights of supply and demand factors in generating the output declines observed in Poland during its transition to the market? And how important are the factors that fit under the rubric of “supply and demand” in comparison to other potential reasons for the output decline, especially adjustment away from the Soviet-style economic system? The initial decline seems to have been due to a combination of aggregate demand shocks associated with the stabilization, declines in inventory investment due to the transition from a shortage economy, and especially shifts in demand away from socialized sector industry towards other sectors of the economy. Growth has come primarily from expansion in new sectors, such as services and residential construction, and in new enterprises. The applicability of one-good macroeconomics is limited in understanding either the output decline or the subsequent growth in Poland.     

Labour Management as Development of the Integrated Developmental State in China

The application of the developmental state concept outside its birthplace in East Asia is generally unsuccessful. The culprit is the ‘laundry list’ method commonly seen in the literature. In this paper a ‘strategic capacity’ conceptualisation is used instead, with emphasis on its diverse institutional underpinnings. The paper demonstrates that the Chinese state's approach to industrial relations is integrated with its national development strategy and that crafting institutions of labour management is part of the state's effort at building up its strategic capacity for political, social and economic management. The study delineates the factors shaping labour management institutions, paying special attention to the communist heritage that sets China apart from other developmental states. As such, the concept of developmental state has much wider application.     

Learning from Role Models in Rwanda: Incoherent Emulation in the Construction of a Neoliberal Developmental State

In the twenty-first century, developing country policymakers are offered different market-led role models and varied interpretations of ‘developmental state role models’. Despite this confusion, African countries pursue emulative strategies for different purposes – whether they may be for economic transformation (in line with developmental state strategies), market-led reforms or simply to signal the implementation of ‘best practices’ to please donors. Rwanda has been lauded for the country’s economic recovery since the 1994 genocide, with international financial institutions and heterodox scholars both praising different facets of its development strategy. This paper argues that Rwanda is an example of a country that has simultaneously pursued emulative strategies for different purposes – often even within the same sector. Two studies of emulation are explored: the emulation of Singapore’s Economic Development Board through the establishment of Rwanda’s own Rwanda Development Board (RDB) and the evolution of Rwanda’s financial sector with reference to the use of contending market-led and developmental state models. The paper argues that in Rwanda, incoherent emulation for different purposes has resulted in contradictory tensions within its development strategy and the construction of a neoliberal developmental state.     

Politics and privatization in Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines how government ideology influenced privatization efforts in Central and Eastern Europe after the transition from socialism. We analyse a dataset of privatization indicators covering small‐ and large‐scale industries in 19 transition countries over the period 1990–2007 and introduce a government ideology index. The results suggest that market‐oriented governments promoted the privatization of small‐scale industries more than that of large‐scale ones. In the rapid transition process in the early 1990s, leftist governments stuck to public ownership more strongly than in the following period from the mid‐1990s to 2007. The remarkable differences between leftist and right‐wing governments concerning both the role of government in the economy and the basic elements of political order are in line with developments in OECD countries, and may also hold further implications for transition and democratizing countries outside Central and Eastern Europe.     

列宁对俄国资本主义发展的经济史考察及其方法论特色——读《俄国资本主义的发展》

19世纪末 ,列宁继承马克思等经典作家对欧洲 ,尤其是对英国资本主义发展的经济史考察的传统 ,运用马克思主义的基本经济理论 ,对俄国农奴制改革以来资本主义在工业、农业部门的发展进行了经济史的考察和分析 ,不仅阐明了马克思主义的一些基本原理 ,大大发展了马克思主义 ,而且是列宁领导俄国革命的理论和现实依据。 2 0世纪 4 0年代 ,毛泽东对近代中国社会发展阶段和社会性质的考察和分析 ,提出新民主主义理论 ,可以看作是马克思、恩格斯、列宁的这一经济史考察传统的继承和发扬。     

Explaining regional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper analyses the determinants and the evolution of income disparities across regions within Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over 1991–2011. We add to the literature in different ways. First, we adapt the categories that Rodriguez‐Pose used for studying convergence among old EU members to CEECs regions. This allows us to assess the relevance of geo‐sectoral groups (urban areas, old industrialized areas and peripheral areas) for newcomer regions. Second, we introduce a new category, that of ‘successful Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)‐based restructuring’ in order to capture regions that, often through considerable FDI, manage to reconvert their old industrial base. We then analyze whether this group helps understand catching‐up/falling behind processes in CEECs. We test the relevance of these groups by means of both non‐parametric and spatial regression analyses. We find that they help explain the increase in within‐countries’ regional disparities especially after the turn of the century.     

Regulatory reform in telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we discuss public policy towards the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), focusing primarily on the need to ensure adequate capital investment. The analysis falls into two main parts: the regulation of monopoly, and policy on liberalization. Concerning regulation, we discuss how policy credibility is likely to be a problem in the region, and how reputational considerations, the design of regulatory institutions, and methods of price control can help to ameliorate this problem. Concerning liberalization, we consider the effects of potential competition on investment incentives, and construct a simple model to analyse the different effects of liberalization and regulatory risk on investment. Some preliminary policy conclusions are drawn, and we argue that in the CEE region – in contrast to more well developed countries – a reasonable case can be made for allowing a temporary period of monopoly for basic services.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

Profitability of foreign banks in Central and Eastern Europe

This article uses data for 418 banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe between 1993 and 2004 to analyse the impact of the mode of foreign bank entry and of the parent institutions’ characteristics on bank profitability. The results show that foreign banks are affected both less and differently by domestic economic conditions, but do react to the health of the parent banks and the economic situations in their home countries. Their mode of entry is important: profits of banks entering via greenfield investment exhibit a complementary relationship with their parent banks, whereas profits of banks acquiring domestic institutions are negatively related to the opportunity costs in their home markets.     

Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe

This article assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 point to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points.     

Intermediate goods trade and international wage convergence in Central Europe

The recent literature on international outsourcing points out that cross-border fragmentation of production processes may foster the convergence of international factor prices. This paper makes a first attempt to analyze this hypothesis empirically using a small panel of NACE 2-digit wage data of three Central and Eastern European economies.     

Central Bank transparency in theory and practice

We study the effects of Central Bank transparency on inflation and the output gap. Our intention is to illustrate, with the help of a small analytical model, how an imperfectly transparent Central Bank affects the two main macroeconomic variables, inflation and the output gap. The model tells us that transparency affects the variability of inflation and output but not their average levels. Then we examine the extent to which this conjecture is justified by the index of transparency constructed by Eijffinger and Geraats. Given the limitations of such indices, we only examine the correlations between the index of transparency and the macro variables in question. This analysis shows that the average magnitudes are not affected by transparency but their variability is. In the case of inflation, its variability benefits from the reduction of transparency and about 50% is explained by the variability in the transparency index. The effect on output volatility on the other hand is less clear, and in any case transparency seems to increase it rather than decrease it.     

Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: The gravity model

Remittances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as gross domestic product in sending and receiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, and fit remittance, flow well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline in remittance inflows in recipient countries.     

The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe

This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between the real economy and equity market returns in Poland and Hungary, these links occur with lags, suggesting the possibility of profitable trading strategies based on public information and rejecting semi-strong efficiency. For the Czech Republic the situation is more complex. In recent periods, little connection exists between lagged economic variables and equity market returns. Although this finding might be viewed as consistent with semi-strong efficiency, in fact there is also little connection between current economic values and stock prices in the Czech Republic. Thus, instead of processing information efficiently, the Czech market appears to be entirely divorced from the real world. It is suggested that the difference in the current status of these markets may be due to the different methods by which they were created.     

The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Central and Eastern Europe

This article explores the economic performance of state ownership in the largest non-financial enterprises operating in 13 post-socialist Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries over the period 2007–2013. The largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are selected based on the ‘Coface – 500 Top Companies in CEE’ list in 2013. Of these 500 enterprises, 69 were identified as state-owned. All originated in the socialist period. The majority of them are from Poland and Ukraine. SOEs hold a dominant position in energy supply, the oil and gas sector, and transport. We find that the persistence of state ownership in post-socialist countries is caused by incomplete privatisation and the presence of SOEs within strategic sectors. The economic performance of the largest state-owned companies is, on average, comparable to their private counterparts.     

区域产业集群创新系统发展路径与机制研究

区域产业集群创新系统既是区域创新系统的重要组分,也是区域、国家和全球产业链与价值链的一个结点.基于Logistic模型的研究发现,产业集群创新系统存在演化周期现象,且是一个白组织系统,具有非连续性,遵循社会生态演化机理.运用结构方程模型的实证分析发现,资金支撑仍是区域产业集群创新的重要问题,创新收益是驱动企业创新进而影响产业集群创新能力的重要因素,且已显现出巨大推动力.区域产业集群创新系统的发展路径,目前可供选择的主要有集结型优化路径、联盟型优化路径和配置型优化路径,涉及到企业选择、社会选择和政府选择等问题.由于三条路径各有优劣,需要建构一条开放式协同路径,并着重探索形成动力机制、互补机制、共担机制、协作机制和多元化机制.     

The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis

The role of insurance companies, although growing in importance in financial intermediation, has received less attention than bank and stock markets and if so, mainly as a provider of risk transfer in single country or very heterogeneous samples. We investigate both the impact of insurance investment and premiums on GDP growth in Europe. We conduct a cross-country panel data analysis from 1992 to 2005 for 29 European countries. We find a positive impact of life insurance on GDP growth in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. For the New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe, we find a larger impact for liability insurance. Furthermore our findings emphasise the impact of the real interest rate and the level of economic development on the insurance-growth nexus. We argue that the insurance sector needs to be paid more attention in financial sector analysis and macroeconomic policy.