The UK Financial Sector and Risk Management in PFI Projects: A Survey

In PFI transactions the private companies which take on the obligation to build and manage a facility usually provide only a small fraction of the project's capital requirements. Most of the capital is borrowed from banks and other financial institutions. This poses challenges to financial services providers which often have to retain untypical residual project risks. This article describes the types of risks faced by financial services providers and the strategies they use to cope with these risks. Given the often politically-sensitive nature of PFI projects, the authors suggest that financial institutions should investigate a broader set of parameters than they do at present, which relate directly to the political economy of PFI projects.     

Political risk forecasting

There is a lull permeating the political risk industry after an initial surge of interest in the late 1970s. This article explores the business world's possible scepticism with the concepts, theories and methods of political risk analysis, examines the relative strengths and weaknesses of approaches to political risk forecasting, and suggests ways in which companies can themselves take control of the risk assessment process. It is concluded that no single method is satisfactory, and that data from both subjective and objective sources need to be integrated for political risk assessment to become more effective.     

RISK MANAGEMENT FOR MIDDLE MARKET COMPANIES

This article reinforces the message of the one immediately preceding by showing that small to medium‐sized firms have even stronger (non‐tax) motives for hedging risks than their large corporate counterparts. Although middle market companies have traditionally been viewed as less sophisticated than their larger corporate counterparts in the risk management arena, the authors suggest that such companies have become increasingly receptive to new hedging strategies using derivative products. When used appropriately, such products allow companies to stabilize their periodic operating cash flow by eliminating specific sources of volatility such as fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Smaller companies recognize that a single swing in a budgeted cost can have a catastrophic effect on an entire budget, whereas a larger company can more easily absorb such a cost. Moreover, because the principal owners of mid‐sized firms often have a substantial part of their net worth tied up in the business, they are likely to have a far stronger interest than typical outside shareholders in using risk management to reduce the volatility of corporate profits and firm value. Perhaps most important to owners whose firms rely on debt financing, the greater cash flow stability resulting from active risk management significantly reduces the possibility of financial distress or bankruptcy. In this article, three representatives of Bank of America's risk management practice discuss three different exposures faced by middle market companies—those arising from changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices—and show how these risks can be managed with derivatives. Besides shielding companies from financial trouble, risk management is also likely to improve their access to the money and capital markets. By protecting the firm's access to capital, risk management increases the odds that the firm will not be forced to pass up good investment opportunities because of capital constraints or fear of getting into financial difficulty.     

Contracts,governance, and country risk in project finance: Theory and evidence

Project finance links financial structure to the operational characteristics of the project to optimize the allocations of various project risks. We develop a model in which concession grants and offtake agreements benefit both public and private sponsors in the presence of political risk. The public can use these contracts to incentivize the private sponsor to undertake an otherwise unacceptable project while benefiting from delegating the process of financing, building, and operating the project to the private sponsor. For the private sponsor, the government concession grant, while improving financial returns, entails political influence. We develop hypotheses connecting these contract choices to the public–private partnership governance structure of project finance and provide supporting evidence. Our findings suggest that a country's political and financial risks have significant impacts on the contract choice as well as the public–private governance structure in project finance. Projects in greater political risk countries tend to be structured with less government involvement in order to avoid political influence of the local government. Projects with the private finance initiative end up with more government involvement and control in order to protect the public interest.     

Risk and the cosmopolitanization of solidarities

Abstract

For classical sociologists, national solidarity was a response to the risks and uncertainties of modernity. National solidarity was said to provide the foundations for social order and justice (Durkheim), serve as the basis for political legitimacy (Weber), and address issues of (in)equality (Marx). Throughout the twentieth century, national solidarity seemed to perform these functions adequately, if often at the expense of those not belonging to the national community. However, with the demise of progress as a cultural prophylaxis to contain the future, it is often said that newly emergent world risks spell the end of solidarity. On this view, risk, individualization, and the cosmopolitanization of life worlds are contributing to the fragmentation of societies and pushing solidarity toward expiration. Yet, this jeremiad is based on an anachronistic notion of solidarity, which does not account for the recent adaptations of nationhood. In contrast, I argue that new global risks are not detrimental to the notion of solidarity but rather serve as a precondition for the emergence of cosmopolitanized solidarities. Global culture and political norms from human rights to environmentalism have catalyzed a reimagining of nationhood itself. In order to grasp new forms of solidarity which buttress this reimagined nationhood, I draw on Ulrich Beck’s distinction between three historically specific iterations of the concept of risk, as something that: can be calculated; is malign and incalculable; has the potential to generate goods.     

Cosmopolitan risk community in a bowl: a case study of China’s good food movement

Abstract

Ulrich Beck fundamentally transformed our way of thinking about human interdependence through his three core theses on risk, individualisation and cosmopolitanisation. However, two commonly observed deficiencies in Beck’s grand theory were its Eurocentric orientation and a lack of empirical grounding. Based on 5 focus groups and 14 interviews with participants of the emerging Clean Food Movement in China, this paper extends the Beckian discussion outside Europe. Through examining how individuals understand both ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ risks associated with contemporary food consumption, this paper demonstrates that in the face of unpredictable and incalculable harms, risks are not seen as a ‘thing’, but are translated into ‘causal relations’. Subsequently, for Chinese stakeholders, the best way to safeguard food risks is to enact more visible and functioning interdependent relations in the food system. This in turn has given rise to new forms of communities which cut across conventional geographic, socio-economic and political boundaries. The paper deepens a Beckian theorisation in two ways. First, it demonstrates that the ‘enabling’ effect of risk towards a cosmopolitan society is not limited to obvious global crises, such as climate catastrophes and financial meltdown. In fact, the mundane yet intimate concern of putting ‘good’ food in one’s dinner bowl already presses actors to form new social solidarities that are cosmopolitan in nature. Second, it goes beyond Beck’s assertion that the risk society has culminated in a cosmopolitan moment, and explores how a performative cosmopolitan community reshapes the ‘relations of definition’ to mitigate risks on the ground.     

国外保险企业风险预警的理论与实践及对中国的启示

有效的企业风险预警,能够降低企业破产成本、维护相关利益者权益、节约行政资源、防范系统性风险.保险作为"经济助推器"和"社会稳定器",肩负着为经济社会管理风险的特殊职能,保险业自身的安全,对整个经济社会的稳定具有特殊重要的作用,建立针对保险企业的风险预警机制已极为迫切.本文介绍了国外保险企业风险预警的理论和实践,希望能对...     

Human Rights Performance Disclosure by Companies with Operations in High Risk Countries: Evidence from the Australian Minerals Sector

The aim of this study is to explore whether Australian mineral companies operating in high human rights risk countries provide more human rights disclosures than companies operating in low risk countries. A content analysis instrument containing 88 specific human rights performance items derived from a number of international human rights guidelines has been developed to investigate the annual reports, social responsibility reports and corporate websites of the top 50 Australian mineral companies (2010/2011). The findings show that human rights performance disclosures by companies with operations in high human rights risk countries are significantly higher than companies with operations in low risk countries. By disclosing extended human rights performance information, companies operating in high risk countries appear to ease community concerns about human rights violations. The finding is consistent with legitimacy theory, which posits that organisations respond to community concerns in relation to particular social issues.     

产融型企业集团利率市场风险实证研究

以Flannery部分调整模型以及Granger因果检验为实证研究法对产融型企业集团的利率市场风险进行了实证研究,结果表明:产融型企业集团在运营期间面临的风险为利率上升以及利率波动率上升的风险,且参股商业银行、证券公司以及保险公司的产融型企业集团的利率市场风险表现出了一定的差异性,这为产融型企业集团的利率市场风险的控制提供了一定的借鉴意义。     

Single vs. Multiple Discount Rates: How to Limit “Influence Costs” in the Capital Allocation Process*

Most finance textbooks suggest that companies evaluate investment projects using discount rates that reflect both the debt capacity and the unique risks of the project. In practice, however, companies often use their company‐wide WACC to evaluate such investments because of the difficulty of (and subjectivity involved in) estimating the risk of individual projects, and the potential for managerial bias and influence to distort the estimates. This article proposes a practicable method for calculating the cost of capital that produces different discount rates for investment projects with different risks while minimizing the “influence costs” that arise when managers have discretion in the choice of discount rates. The proposed approach makes use of market information (in the form of the firm‐wide costs of debt and equity), thereby limiting managerial discretion, while typically still providing a good approximation of theoretically correct, project‐specific discount rates. The key to the method's effectiveness is its use of a project's debt capacity to define the capital structure weights, where debt capacity is defined by the amount of debt financing the project will support without lowering the firm's credit rating.     

Global environmental risks: between political hazards and policy decisions

Environmental risks are both decision forcing situations and action forcing events. Rethinking the nature, scientific soundness and democratic character of environmental policy decisions have become critical political issues. And, although the environmental policy approach to address environmental risks enjoys ample support, the newly acquired custody has not been assumed without a degree of political hazard. It is this subject matter which circumvents the analysis of the risk political model, which Munch characterizes as a contingency of double political risks. Since environmental policy inaction is not an option, my interest here is simultaneously with a workable and legitimate model of reaching decisions driven by demands that set explicit goals, acceptable to concerned parties, implementable by policies, with positive impact on the protection against environmental risks. Filtered through the medium of deliberation, environmental risk protection is likely to gain public support and grow into a collective project, thus possibly offsetting the contingency of political hazards. A democratic model of deliberation, however, must be tested not simply by its formal procedural attributes, but also by its ability to deliver. Hence a deliberate model without explicit time frameworks will not do. Any deliberative process preoccupied with environmental risks must seriously consider the pragmatics of time . This implies stipulations of time limits per decision units. After all, time frameworks are embedded within the structuring of rules and decision-making processes, and as such, time has been transformed into both a scarce and a non-renewable resource. This is the more relevant in the context of environmental policy as the intensification of decision-making has been exacerbated in the process of globalization where scientific, technological and economic developments have generated a host of global environmental problems increasingly difficult to address in any decisive form.     

Mitigating Interest Rate Risk in Variable Annuities: An Analysis of Hedging Effectiveness under Model Risk

Variable annuities are investment vehicles offered by insurance companies that combine a life insurance policy with long-term financial guarantees. These guarantees expose the insurer to market risks, such as volatility and interest rate risks, which can be managed only with a hedging strategy. The objective of this article is to study the effectiveness of dynamic delta-rho hedging strategies for mitigating interest rate risk in variable annuities with either a guaranteed minimum death benefit or guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit rider. Our analysis centers on three important practical issues: (1) the robustness of delta-rho hedging strategies to model uncertainty, (2) the impact of guarantee features (maturity versus withdrawal benefits) on the performance of the hedging strategy, and (3) the importance of hedging interest rate risk in either a low and stable or rising interest rate environment. Overall, we find that the impact of interest rate risk is equally felt for the two types of products considered, and that interest rate hedges do lead to a significant risk reduction for the insurer, even when the ongoing low interest rate environment is factored in.     

Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures

A dynamic model of a multistage investment project that capturesmany features of research and development (R&D) venturesand start-up companies is developed. An important feature theseproblems share is that firms learn about the potential profitabilityof the project throughout its life, but that technical uncertaintyabout the R&D effort is only resolved through additionalinvestment. Consequently the risks associated with the ultimatecash flows have a systematic component even while the purelytechnical risks are idiosyncratic. Our model captures thesedifferent sources of risk and allows us to study their interactionin determining the value and risk premium of the venture.     

Political–security risk in the oil and gas industry: the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation

Oil and gas companies are experiencing an increase in terrorist attacks. The industry became a legitimate target for terrorist groups in the 1990s and the number of attacks have increased yearly, with a spike after the 9/11 attacks. In today’s interconnected world, political risk is not only about the relationship between the host government and the company. Oil and gas companies may experience risks on a transnational, national and human security level. The success of new investments often depends on the successful utilization of risk management strategies. This study focuses on the importance of political–security risk in the oil and gas industry. In January 2013, the oil and gas industry experienced one of its deadliest attacks at the In Amenas gas facility in Algeria, forcing firms to reconsider its focus on security management. Statoil undertook a thorough analysis of security at the site as well as of the company′s corporate security risk management. The report revealed a lack of focus on political–security risk. This study argues that political–security risk has not been used to its full potential in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has always focused on site security, but a broader more holistic approach to risk management has been lacking. As a result of the In Amenas incident, the industry has become more willing to have a new discussion on security and this has resulted in changes in the way companies operate.     

Countering the biggest risk of all

Corporate treasurers and chief financial officers have become adept at quantifying and managing a wide variety of risks: financial (for example, currency fluctuations), hazard (chemical spills), and operational (computer system failures). To defend themselves, they use tried-and-true tools such as hedging, insurance, and backup systems. Some companies have even adopted the concept of enterprise risk management, integrating available risk management techniques in a comprehensive, organization-wide approach. But most managers have not addressed in a systematic way the greatest threat of all--strategic risks, the array of external events and trends that can devastate a company's growth trajectory and shareholder value. Strategic risks go beyond such familiar challenges as the possible failure of an acquisition or a product launch. A new technology may overtake your product. Gradual shifts in the market may slowly erode one of your brands beyond the point of viability. Or rapidly shifting customer priorities may suddenly change your industry. The key to surviving these strategic risks, the authors say, is knowing how to assess and respond to them. In this article, they lay out a method for identifying and responding to strategic threats. They categorize the risks into seven major classes (industry, technology, brand, competitor, customer, project, and stagnation) and describe a particularly dangerous example within each category. The authors also offer countermeasures to take against these risks and describe how individual companies (American Express, Coach, and Air Liquide, among them) have deployed them to neutralize a threat and, in many cases, capitalize on it. Besides limiting the downside of risk, strategic-risk management forces executives to think more systematically about the future, thus helping them identify opportunities for growth.     

Explaining variation in risk across insurance companies

The purpose of this study is to determine what firm-specific factors affect the risk of insurance companies. Traditional methods used to identify potential failures have been severely criticized. Thus, alternative approaches to risk assessment should be of interest to investors and managers of these companies. Models for measuring the impact of factors on risk are developed and empirically tested. The models employed explain a high proportion of variation in risk levels across companies. The sensitivity of insurance company risk to financial characteristics vary with the variable used as a proxy for risk and the type of insurance company assessed. Given the strong relationships between firm-specific characteristics and company risk, it appears that the risk of insurance companies can be effectively controlled with proper management.     

The politics of urban climate risks: theoretical and empirical lessons from Ulrich Beck’s methodological cosmopolitanism

Abstract

In the face of global climate risks, world cities increasingly figure in academic and policy discourse as strategic spaces for harnessing the expertise and governance capacity needed to steer societies toward more sustainable and low-carbon futures. This article reviews existing approaches to the study of urban climate politics, by way of asking what contribution Ulrich Beck’s theory of world risk society – and principles of methodological cosmopolitanism – make to such epochal conversations? Three main analytical frameworks stand out: low-carbon transition literature highlight generic processes of socio-technical ‘greening’ of urban infrastructures; urban policy mobility work documents growing intercity networks around climate and sustainability; and actor–network theory-informed takes on urban controversies engage the localized politics of specific city-based ‘riskscapes’. While each framework makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices, the article ends by pointing to the need for reworking methods of (multi-sited) ethnography and comparison as central parts of realizing Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology in the domain of urban climate risks.     

Understanding expressed low concern and latent concern near a hazardous waste treatment facility

This paper discusses local small town residents’ concerns about risk and safety near a hazardous waste facility at Swan Hills, Alberta, Canada. The majority of the residents studied outwardly express that they have low concern about the facility. The purposes are to both elaborate existing theory that potentially explains low concern and to explore new explanations of low concern in everyday life. Theories or concepts which potentially explain expressed low concern are start-points for this qualitative case study. These include: economic risk theory, psychometric risk theory, cultural risk theory, cognitive dissonance (threat denial), community identity and stigma, and risk attenuation. Thirtyeight in-depth resident interviews involving views of facility risks, as well as community life, are used to better understand the social construction of risk. It is found that despite the fact that 31 residents outwardly insist they have no or low concern about facility risks when first prompted, 11 actually do show latent concerns when probed further, expressed as uncertainty, reservations and doubt. It is argued that juxtaposing the views of insiders against those perceived to be held by outsiders furthers understanding of why facility concern is rarely expressed in such a community. There is a heightened sense of pride and positive community identity manifest as a defensive reaction by insider residents to outsiders who are perceived to hold negative, stigmatizing views of the facility as well as the town. Implications relating to community and industry vigilance as well as the impacts of outsiders sensationalising risk are discussed.     

Private Equity 4.0: Using ESG to Create More Value with Less Risk

A growing number of private equity firms have responded to the increased focus on climate change, social issues, and technology disruption by broadening their corporate mission to encompass all important stakeholders, as well as their limited partners. And in the process, the management of ESG risks and pursuit of ESG opportunities have become increasingly fundamental to the staying power and value creation potential of PE firms by reducing the risk of their investments, discovering new sources of growth, and increasing their resilience to changes in the political and regulatory environment. This article tells the story of how the Nordic PE firm, Summa Equity, has turned its ESG approach into a core competence and a source of competitive advantage that has enabled the firm to distinguish itself from its competitors and bring about significant improvements in the financial performance of its portfolio companies while providing benefits for their stakeholders. Using the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals to guide them, the firm invests in companies they perceive to be addressing major environmental or social challenges in an innovative and commercially successful way. This has led to investments in significant growth opportunities in areas such as health care, education, waste management, and acqua‐culture. And the firm's returns to its investors have been high enough—and the perceived social benefits large enough—that the firm recently closed its second fund (which was significantly oversubscribed) for 650 million euros, and received the ESG award at the 2019 Private Equity Awards in London.     

Accountability and risk governance: a scenario-informed reflection on European regulation of GMOs

Regulating risks in the face of scientific uncertainty poses a particular challenge to policy-makers. Such problems are amplified when decisions are taken in a multi-level framework of supranational governance. The genetically modified organism (GMO) regulation in the European Union constitutes an especially salient issue of risk governance in a multi-lateral arena, as the topic is politically highly visible and decision-making is slow and contested. Furthermore, as authority is dispersed among multiple actors, European risk governance is in need of adequate mechanisms ensuring that decision-makers justify and account for their behavior. While legitimacy aspects of GMO governance have widely been examined, accountability relations within the field of GMO risk governance have hitherto only weakly been explored. Hence, this paper analyzes the question of who can be held accountable under the complex system of supranational risk governance. This paper claims that mere adherence by actors to the regulatory procedures during the decision-making process does not necessarily imply that overall accountability can be secured, resulting in ‘organized irresponsibility’. Although certain piecemeal accountability may exist, establishing overall accountability is complicated, precisely as a result of the complex system of interwoven rules.