Technological paradigms,patterns of learning and development: An introductory roadmap

This paper presents an evolutionary microeconomic theory of innovation and production and discusses its implications for development theory. Using the notions of technological paradigm and trajectory, it develops an alternative view of firm behavior and learning. It is shown then how these are embedded in broader national systems of innovation which account for persistent differences in technological cappacities between countries. Finally, this bottom-up evolutionary analysis is linked with an institutional top-down approach, and the potential fruitfulness of this dialogue is demonstrated.We thank the discussants and participants at the workshop on Technology and Competitiveness in Developing Countries, Venice, 26/11/93, for their useful comments.The research leading to this work has benefited at various stages from the support of the Italian National Research Council (CNR, Progetto Strategico Combiamento Technologico e Crescita Economica) and of the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA, Austria).     

Policy Diffusion of the Emission Trading Scheme in China:Progress and Prospects

Chinese national emissions trading scheme(ETS)of greenhouse gas(GHG)was scheduled to start simulation trading in the power sector in 2020.Now it is good timing ...     

Control of SO2 emissions from power plants: A case of induced technological innovation in the U.S.

This paper investigates how the details of government actions induce innovation—the overlapping activities of invention, adoption and diffusion, and learning by doing—in “environmental technology,” products and processes that either control pollutant emissions or prevent emissions altogether. It applies multiple quantitative and qualitative measures of innovation to a case subject to several “technology-push” and “demand-pull” instruments: sulfur dioxide control technology for power plants. The study employs analyses of public R&D funding, patents, expert interviews, learning curves, conference proceedings, and experience curves. Results indicate that: regulation and the anticipation of regulation stimulate invention; technology-push instruments appear to be less effective at prompting invention than demand-pull instruments; and regulatory stringency focuses inventive activity along certain technology pathways. Increased diffusion of the technology results in significant and predictable operating cost reductions in existing systems, as well as notable efficiency improvements and capital cost reductions in new systems. Government plays an important role in fostering knowledge transfer via technical conferences, as well as affecting the pattern of collaborative relationships within the technical research community via regulatory changes that affect the market for the technology. Finally, the case provides little evidence for the claim that cap-and-trade instruments induce innovation more effectively than other instruments.     

企业技术创新能力成熟度模型研究

本本文借鉴软件行业评估软件开发能力的成熟度模型研究企业的技术创新能力,构建了技术创新能力成熟度等级和等级特征以及每一个等级的关键过程域和关键实践,为企业技术创新能力的发展提供了清晰的目标和路径。其次,根据技术创新过程和关键过程域,基于全面性、客观性、可操作性原则,设计了一套技术创新能力成熟度评价指标体系,并且运用模糊数学理论评价技术创新能力成熟度等级。最后,企业技术创新能力的提高要落实在具体的创新活动中,选择合适的创新模式,在一个个具体的创新活动中提高企业技术创新能力是技术创新能力成熟度模型应用研究的最终目的。所以,需要根据评价出来的成熟度等级进行创新模式的选择,企业的技术创新能力成熟度等级不同,可以选择的创新模式和创新模式组合是不一样的。     

Technological Profiles And Economic Performance In The Italian Manufacturing Sector ∗

This paper applies multivariate analysis to a rich data set on technological innovation, in order to identify typical patterns of technological change. To single out the dominant forms of technological behaviour, twelve variables have been selected approximating firms' technological sources and innovation results. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify six main clusters or dominant technological profiles. Each cluster was then interpreted on the basis of a larger set of variables concerning firms' technological and economic performance. The results confirm recent emphasis placed by scholars of technical change on variety of bchaviour in technical change and industrial organization and, more specifically, Pavitt's seminal attempt at a classification of this variety. However, our clusters are somewhat more numerous than Pavitt's, thus showing a more complex combination of technological input and output. Moreover, representative industries of each cluster are less easily recognized as a less marked sectoral characterization of clusters emerges. The latter result seems to imply that variety in technological change is also shown by the existence of different technological trajectories and strategies within the same sector. We suggest that the diffuse nature of recent technical change has given firms greater freedom of strategic choice among different technological strategies.     

ON TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION: A FORMAL ANALYSIS OF THE ‘SAILING-SHIP EFFECT’

One of the key features of our economies consists of the coexistence of different technologies supplying similar products and services. We often observe that an old technology is improved when a new one appears; behind this process of improvement often lies an intentional research activity. There thus begins a competition between the two technologies whose performances are improved via R&D. We focus our attention on this competition process and supply a formal model, based on the optimization of R&D expenditure of both technologies, which can describe the dynamics of the delayed overtaking of the new technology over the old one.     

On using relative prices to measure capital-specific technological progress

Recently, Greenwood, Hercowitz and Krusell (GHK) have identified the relative price of (new) capital with capital-specific technological progress. In a two-sector growth model, however, the relative price of capital equals the ratio of the productivity processes in the two sectors. Restrictions from this model are used with data on wages and prices to construct measures of productivity growth and test the GHK identification, which is easily rejected by the data. This raises questions about various measures of the contribution that capital-specific technological progress might make to the economy. This identification also induces a negative correlation between the resulting measures of capital-specific and economy-wide technological change, which potentially explains why papers employing this identification find that capital-specific technological change accelerated in the mid-1970s. We impose structure on the productivity measures based on their long-run behavior and find evidence of a slowdown in productivity in the 1970s that is common to both sectors and an acceleration in the mid-1990s that is exclusive to the capital sector.     

我国区域技术创新能力评价指标体系及模型构建

技术创新是区域经济持续发展的主要动力,已成为提高区域竞争力的关键因素。本文在文献调研和专家筛选的基础上,根据评价指标体系设计的原则,从技术创新投入能力、技术创新支撑能力、技术扩散能力、技术创新产出能力和可持续创新能力5个方面选取了22个要素作为评价指标,构建了一套系统、量化、适用的区域技术创新能力评价指标体系。结合改进的模糊积分评价方法提出了基于模糊积分的区域技术创新能力综合评价方法。     

Technology roadmaps: Infrastructure for innovation

The value of technology roadmaps for technology planning, technology selection, and technological innovation has become widely recognized. In this article, we explore how technology roadmaps can support virtual innovation and innovation factories. We also consider how technology landscapes can provide metrics for technology roadmaps. We explore how knowledge of patterns of technological evolution can be incorporated into technology roadmaps to detect opportunities for innovation and possible market limitations. Finally, we discuss how agent models can provide the basis for simulation and possibly for self-organization.     

An introduction to evolutionary theories in economics

This paper presents the basic ideas and methodologies of a set of contemporary contributions which are grouped under the general heading of evolutionary economics. Some achievements-especially with regard to the analysis of technological change and economic dynamics-are illustrated, some unresolved issues are discussed and a few promising topics of research are flagged.This article draws on a chapter prepared for the book Market and Organization: The Competitive Firm and its Environment, edited within an EEC/Tempus Programme by LATAPSES, Nice, France, and Iside, Rome.     

后发经济体技术赶超中的转型陷阱

文章通过将中间产品生产厂商的异质性结构引入罗默三部门内生增长模型中,构建了一个基于垂直创新的技术进步模型。运用该模型对后发经济体技术赶超中不同阶段间过渡时存在的技术进步模式转型陷阱的问题进行理论性分析。通过研究发现,技术赶超过程中要依次经历专注模仿、模仿并且创新、专注创新三个阶段。后发经济体技术进步会从一个阶段进入下一个阶段,然而各个阶段间技术进步模式转型不是自然发生的,而是存在着转型陷阱。第一次转型会经历创新停滞陷阱,第二次转型可能会出现模仿陷阱,而陷入模仿陷阱的经济体在技术水平达到一定程度时会出现技术进步减缓甚至是倒退。后发经济体一旦陷入模仿陷阱将很难接近世界技术前沿,技术赶超也就无法实现。     

所有权安排与技术创新绩效

技术创新合约是一个不完全合约,创新所有权配置影响各方的专用性投资激励.本文采用不完全合约理论分析显示:技术创新的所有权应该配置给对投资激励和产出贡献重要的一方;建立多元化技术创新融资体系和在创新资源分配中引入竞标体制,会增加创新的社会总盈余;技术创新资源的平均分配和资源配置中的寻租行为会降低技术创新的社会总盈余,中国工业技术创新绩效的持续改善要求建立效率导向的创新所有权安排.     

The effects of the Paris climate agreement on stock markets: evidence from the German stock market

We investigate the effects of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement on the German stock market by considering the impact of 20 announcements pertaining to the Agreement on 17 industries. The event study methodology is used for this purpose, together with several robustness tests, such as the nonparametric rank test and non-parametric conditional distribution approach. The change in systematic risk following the announcements is captured by using various risk models. In general, we find that the Paris Climate Agreement is achieving its objectives in the short run. Our results show that the announcements affected polluting industries in terms of risk and return. Furthermore, we observe two distinct diamond risk structures when (1) Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 took place, and (2) the Agreement came into force.     

中国科技创新与低碳经济的协调发展研究

世界上各国的发展经验表明,科技创新和低碳经济协调发展才能更好地实现可持续发展。文章在建立科技创新和低碳经济系统的指标体系的基础上,利用熵值法确定了各指标的权重并通过构建的协调度模型测度了中国1995-2010年间科技创新系统和低碳经济系统的协调度。实证结果表明,在研究的样本期间,我国科技创新系统和低碳经济系统协调度正在不断提高,两个系统呈现出互相推动和共同协调发展的局面。最后,根据研究结果,文章提出了相应的政策建议。通过对科技创新和低碳经济两个系统间协调发展的研究,可以为发展我国低碳经济提供一个新的视角。     

技术创新活动中政府和企业作用的实证分析

文章利用2003-2011年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,采用面板协整方法捕捉政府行为和企业自主行为对技术创新的动态影响。研究发现,企业行为是推动中国技术创新发展的重要动力,但企业技术创新的主体地位还没有完全确立;政府行为对促进技术创新发展有着重要意义：政府对人力资本的投入和技术市场的完善对技术创新有明显的积极作用,政府的技术创新投入对技术创新有促进作用,政府采购对技术创新有正向的作用,但显著度不够高。因此,建议加快确立企业技术创新核心主体地位,同时政府应加大教育投入力度,进一步完善技术市场,调整政府采购结构并加大政府采购对技术创新倾斜的力度。     

Evolutionary von Neumann models

The Schumpeter theory of the role of money in a technologically developing economy can be formalised in terms of an evolutive von Neumann model. The present paper first, incorporates credit money into the von Neumann framework and second, permits additions to the input and output matrices to incorporate improvements in technology in the simplest Lonergan Schumpeter production model. This model shows a strong form of creative destruction in the transition between Schumpeter's initial and final stationary states. The dual model suggests a comparison of Lonergan's income concepts with a macro generalisation of the financial concepts advocated by Littleton, Chambers and Hendrikson for adaptive firms.     

企业技术创新过程模型研究——基于供应商和用户共同参与的模式

创新是一个民族的素质体现,也是企业发展不变的主题.随着科学技术日益复杂化,技术创新在企业中的重要作用也日益凸显.时于企业来说,技术创新是帮助其在激烈竞争中保持优势的基础,只有进行技术创新,提升自身竞争力,才能让新技术及新产品赶上市场需求潮流,让企业在竞争中立于不败之地.企业创新过程能够为企业的创新指明一条道路,但是现如今企业不能仅仅依靠企业自身采进行创新,而应该借助各方面的力量,让用户和供应商一起参与到技术创新过程中来.有研究表明,供应商和用户参与到新产品开发过程中,能为企业提高新产品开发效率提供有效帮助.但是用户和供应商参与到创新中,技术创新过程又会是怎样一种情况?本文将从这个角度出发,在分别修正已有的供应商和用户单独参与汽车企业技术创新过程模型的基础上,模拟归纳出二者共同参与的技术创新过程模型,为企业新形势下的创新提供帮助.     

On SD-oriented mechanism of technological innovation

If one enterprise just takes technological innovation as the way for economic profit but not the combinationalprofit of economy, society and ecology, it will never survive in this fierce competition market. Based on the relationshipbetween technological innovation and sustainable development, this paper brings forward that technological innovationmust take the sustainable1 development of society as the fundamental goal. Technological innovation should be the realimpulse for the development of society, economy and ecology. On the basis of the analysis on previous technologicalinnovation impetus mechanism, combined with the influential factors, this paper puts forward SD-oriented mechanism oftechnological innovation.