Cyclical Dynamics of the Turkish Economy and the Stock Market

Abstract

We analyze the cyclical dynamics of the Turkish economy and the stock market as well as their interactions. We use hidden Markov models that are robust to parameter instability arising from major shifts in economic policy, which have been typically observed in the Turkish economy. These models provide estimates of turning points for the growth, business, and stock market cycles. We identify three states of growth cycles and two states of business cycles in Turkey characterized by different mean estimates. We find that the economy went through five recessions since 1987. Crises are characterized by sharp drops in economic activity and are preceded by slowdowns. These crises are typically followed by strong recoveries during which the economy grows above its long-run average rate. We show that the Turkish stock market goes through three regimes having distinct risk-return dynamics. Bear markets associated with negative returns precede every recession with an average lead time of three quarters, suggesting that the stock market may be a useful forward-looking indicator of the Turkish economy.     

Pricing Geometric Asian Options under the CEV Process

Abstract

This paper discusses the pricing of geometric Asian options when the underlying stock follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. We build a binomial tree method to estimate the CEV process and use it to price geometric Asian options. We find that the binomial tree method for the lognormal case can effectively solve the computational problems arising from the inherent complexities of geometric Asian options when the stock price follows the CEV process. We present numerical results to demonstrate the validity and the convergence of the approach for the different parameter values set in the CEV process.     

Compensation Convexity without Utility Restriction

We develop an optimal contract model on the use of stock options for chief executive officer compensation under the Mirrlees–Rogerson moral hazard framework. We find that convexity, as know as, the use of stock options, can arise with a broader range of agent utility functions than allowed by Hemmer et al. ( 2000 ). We characterise the necessary conditions regarding the behaviour of the agent's marginal risk tolerance for both the concavity and convexity cases of the likelihood‐ratio function. We find stock options need to be used more intensively, when the agent displays a higher marginal risk tolerance and when the realised task output is higher.     

Unexpected Share Repurchase Announcements

Abstract

Open-market stock repurchase announcements are generally perceived by the stock market as a signal of firm undervaluation. Our study shows that repurchase announcements that were preceded by SEOs of other firms in the same industry within the prior six months (namely SEO-RPs) are more likely the result of lacking investment opportunities than signaling undervaluation, especially in concentrated industries. Specifically, we find investors response negatively to SEO-RP announcements while react positively to regular repurchase announcements. The higher the intensity of SEO activities in the industry, the more negative market reaction to SEO-RP announcements. We argue that the market doesn’t expect a repurchase announcement when other rival firms are raising more capital via SEOs. These SEO-RPs represent a negative surprise to the market and lead to a downward adjustment in value of the repurchasing firms in the announcement window. In the three-year post-announcement periods, the SEO-RP firms underperform regular repurchasing firms in both stock return and operating performance. Moreover, while regular repurchasing firms gradually increase their capital expenditures, SEO-RP firms significantly reduce their capital expenditures. These findings support our arguments that repurchase announcements that immediately follow SEOs of rival firms (SEO-RPs) more likely indicate the announcing firms entering a slower growth rate with fewer investment opportunities than signal the undervaluation problem. The underperformance in stock return and operation combined with a significant reduction in capital expenditures in the post-announcement periods are consistent with this logic and also explain why the market reacts negatively to SEO-RP announcements.     

Impact of initial seeds on the growth of biotechnology startups: evidence from the U.S. and Japan

ABSTRACT

We assess the impact of initial seeds on the long-run growth of biotechnology startups, including the response of the capital market, in the U.S. and Japan. For this purpose, we collected a comprehensive dataset of the matched sample of listed firms from their foundations to the post-IPO period. We find that the quality of initial seeds predicts significantly both the level and the growth rate of the patent stock as well as those of the asset size of the U.S. startups, even controlling for their alliances and acquisitions, while it predicts only the level of the patent stock for the Japanese startups. Furthermore, the asset growth and the patent stock growth in turn account for the market value performances of the U.S. firms much more significantly than those of the Japanese firms. On the other hand, there are only small differences with respect to the time to IPO and the asset growth through the IPO. These results suggest that higher quality of initial seeds significantly enhanced long-run growth of biotechnology startups in the U.S. but not in Japan, and that the differences in fertility of the initial seeds and in efficiency of the capital market could significantly explain the difference.     

Oil shocks and stock volatility: new evidence via a Bayesian,graph-based VAR approach

ABSTRACT

This article examines the temporal dependence between three oil shocks and realized volatility in the stock markets of G20 countries between 1994 and 2019. By applying a novel, graphical, Bayesian VAR (BGVAR) model, we calculate unidirectional linkages of oil and stock volatility with a full and segmented sample. The results suggest an overall causality from stock volatility to oil shocks. For certain short, specific periods, the causal direction reverses. Depending on the country and the source of an oil shock, the magnitude and type of the effect can vary considerably. Specific oil-market shocks occur most often in our full sample. In a time-varying structure, oil supply shocks’ impact on stock volatility is more prominent, and net oil-importing countries’ responses to these shocks are greater than for oil-exporting countries. In addition, we find that relationship dynamics can capture market information, such as global economic growth during the 2008–2009 financial crisis.     

Exogeneity of Money and its Policy Implications for Price Control: Evidence from South Asia

Abstract. We investigate the policy role that could be assigned to money stock in controlling the price level in four South Asian countries, namely, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The problem of policy assignment associated with the Granger non‐causality tests is pointed out. Various forms of exogeneity are tested. Money stocks (M₁ and M₂), consumer price index (CPI) and real GDP are cointegrated and causally related but we find overwhelming evidence of endogeneity of money. The endogeneity of money does not support the authorities’ policy stance of controlling price level through the control of money stock.     

Modeling Jumps and Volatility of the Indian Stock Market Using High-Frequency Data

Recent advancements in technology have led to wide availability of high-frequency financial data. The aim of this paper is to study the behavior of the Indian stock market. In particular, we analyze the returns at 5 min interval from NSE using the index NIFTY and the stocks State Bank of India and Infosys. A non-parametric approach is taken to detect jumps in the return process. The analysis shows that index jumps relate very closely with the general market news and announcements while individual stock jumps are associated with company specific news. We find that volatility of the market is best captured by asymmetric power ARCH models.

     

On the Effects of Asset Purchase Programs on Emerging Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

It is well documented that there has been a relationship between stock markets and unconventional monetary policies. However, most research concentrates on developed economies and analyzes the effects of shocks from such polices on stock prices. This paper is different from this research in that we investigate the impact of surprises from the Fed’s and the ECB’s announcements on the stock returns and volatility in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using GARCH models. We find that a positive surprise associated with a fall in the U.S. Treasury yield causes an increase in ADX returns. We show significant effects of the ECB’s shocks on price returns. In particular, announcement that induces a decline in yield spreads in Italian sovereign bonds leads to higher stock prices. We also document a significant impact of surprises both by the Fed and ECB on volatility. However, the estimates are mixed. We note that volatility went down in response to the ECB’s policies, while they increased after the Fed’s asset purchases. Finally, when we distinguish surprises by their sign, the GJR-GARCH model estimates indicate that the effect on the volatility which is, perhaps surprisingly, symmetric for both types of news.     

Trade Marks and Performance in Services and Manufacturing Firms: Evidence of Schumpeterian Competition through Innovation

We develop Lancaster's model of consumer behaviour under product differentiation to analyse Schumpeterian creative destruction. Launching new products with novel characteristics enables firms to temporarily steal market share from rivals. Product launch is monitored by using trade marks, patents and research and development. The dataset covers a large sample of UK service and manufacturing firms. We find that stock market value is positively associated with own trade mark activity and trade mark‐active firms achieve significantly higher value‐added. Greater trade mark activity by competitors reduces net output of firms, but raises their stock market value. This is consistent with the Schumpeterian process of competition through innovation.     

Short sale constraints and the information content of trading

We examine changes in the information content of trading when short sale constraints between prohibition and restriction exist on a stock exchange. This is made possible by a unique institutional arrangement at the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. It maintains a list of stocks which can be sold short under regulations. Stocks not on the list are prohibited from short selling. The list is revised on a quarterly basis based on predetermined criteria. We find that the probability of information-based trading (PIN) significantly increases when a stock is added to the list. Further analysis shows that this is mainly because uninformed traders are driven out of the market. Elimination of uninformed traders also causes the aggregate trading volume to decrease rather than increase. In comparison, the PIN does not change when a stock is dropped from the list. We also find that market liquidity, measured by volatility and bid–ask spreads, slightly decreases when a stock is added to the list and significantly increases when a stock is dropped from the list. Possible explanations are discussed.     

The influence of Taiwan’s stock market on Bitcoin’s price under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold

ABSTRACT

This study uses a smooth transition autoregressive model with exogenous variables (STARX) to investigate whether there is a nonlinear relationship between Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market taking into account Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold during 2 February 2012 to 31 August 2019. The statistical results show there is a threshold effect and confirm a nonlinear relationship between Taiwan’s stock market and Bitcoin, with variations over time and across Bitcoin and Taiwan’s stock market. Specifically, we find that Bitcoin responds asymmetrically to Taiwan’s stock market according to the threshold value. Furthermore, the return on the closing price of TAIEX with a lag of two periods under Taiwan’s monetary policy threshold has a nonlinear impact on the return on the closing price of Bitcoin.     

Does Probability Weighting Drive Lottery Preferences?

Abstract

We propose a test of the theory of skewness preferences. The probability weighting feature that is the basis of their theory relies on investors overweighting the probability of extreme, positive returns. The resulting investor preferences for positive skewness in return distributions will lead to excess demand, contemporaneous price premiums, and negative expected returns. We use the well-documented 52-week high bias as a method to truncate investors’ weighted probability of expected right-tail events. We find evidence supporting the theoretical framework of Barberis and Huang as the negative return premiums associated with positive skewness is driven almost entirely by stocks that are farther away from the their 52-week high. No negative premiums related to skewness are detected when stock prices are close to the 52-week high.     

Dimensions and Determinants of Financialisation: Comparing OECD Countries since 1997

ABSTRACT

The financialisation literature has grown over the past decades. Despite a generally accepted definition, financialisation has been used to describe different phenomena. We distinguish between financialisation of non-financial companies, households and the financial sector and use activity and vulnerability measures. We identify seven financialisation hypotheses in the literature and empirically investigate them in a cross-country analysis for 17 OECD countries and two time periods, 1997–2007 as well as 2008–17. We find different financialisation measures are only weakly correlated, suggesting the existence of distinct financialisation processes. There is strong evidence that financialisation is linked to asset price inflation and correlated with a debt-driven demand regime. Financial deregulation encourages financialisation. There is limited evidence that market-based financial systems are more financialised. Foreign financial inflows do not seem a main driver. We do not find indication that an investment slowdown precedes financialisation. Our findings suggest financialisation should be understood as a variegated process, playing out differently across economic sectors and countries.     

Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003*

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.     

A tale of two unions: divergent platforms and their constituencies

ABSTRACT

The median voter theorem has regularly been used in economics to represent the behaviour of teachers unions. Little empirical work, however, tests whether this framework is a good fit for teachers unions. We examine voting behaviour in union representative elections between the National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers and find evidence of divergent constituencies. We investigate whether the median voter explains the outcomes of elections in 1977–1979. If both teachers unions select the platform desired by the median voter, there should be no systematic differences in voter preferences for unions. We find that these unions were fundamentally different and attracted distinct voting coalitions. The main implication of this study is that researchers should consider these two unions, and their effect on districts, as distinct.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns

Sentiment from more than 3.6 million Reuters news articles is tested in a vector autoregression model framework on its ability to forecast returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index. We show that Reuters sentiment can explain and predict changes in stock returns better than macroeconomic factors. We further find that negative Reuters sentiment has more predictive power than positive Reuters sentiment. Trading strategies with Reuters sentiment achieve significant outperformance with high success rates as well as high Sharpe ratios.     

Stock market reactions to environmental disclosures: new evidence from China

We study how the stock market in China responds to announcements by an environmental risk index and find that China’s stock market penalizes firms associated with unfavourable environmental news if the information is provided directly to investors in a manner that is easily understood. We also find that the negative impact on stock prices fades after multiple disclosures of the same information.     

Information acquisition in the ultimatum game: An experimental study

We experimentally investigate if free information disadvantages a player relative to when information is unavailable. We study an Ultimatum game where the Proposer, before making an offer, can obtain free information about the Responder's minimum acceptable offer. Theoretically, the Proposer should obtain the information and play a best reply to the Responder's minimum acceptable offer. Thus the Responder should get the largest share of the surplus. We find that an increasing number of Proposers become informed over time. Moreover, the proportion of Proposers who use the information to maximize money earnings increases over time. The majority of information-acquiring Proposers, however, refuse to offer more than one-half and play a best reply only to Responders who accept offers of one-half or less. This, together with a substantial proportion of Proposers who choose to remain uninformed, means that the availability of free information backfires for Proposers only by a little. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C70, D63, D80