Intergenerational transmission of education: The case of rural China

The intergenerational transmission of education has received considerable attention in recent empirical research in many countries. However, the research on intergenerational transmission of education in China is still relatively rare. This paper investigates the impact of parental schooling on their children's schooling in rural China using the data collected by the authors themselves. Our results show that (i) the intergenerational transmission of education in rural China is not as high as those have been reported in the literature for several other countries;(ii) There exists significant transmission effect of education in the subgroup born after the 1980s, but not for those who were born in the year of 1980 onward. The results also stand up to several different tests and robustness checks. Our findings suggest that promoting the equal education opportunity and investing in children of disadvantaged group will have long-term effects for the accumulation of human capital. China can promote increasing gains for its acquisition of human capital, and tap into this foundation for sustainable growth and development in the future.     

Investment reaction patterns — The case of American and West German manufacturing industry

Zusammenfassung Investitionsreaktionsmodelle — der Fall der amerikanischen und westdeutschen verarbeitenden Industrie. — Theoretische Ausgangsbasis der Studie ist eine Akzeleratorvariante mit ?nderungen des Verh?ltnisses zwischen Auftragseingang und verfügbarer Kapazit?t als erkl?rende Variable. Sowohl für die westdeutsche als auch für die amerikanische verarbeitende Industrie gaben Korrelationstests Anla\ zu vermuten, da\ der zeitliche Ablauf der Investitionsreaktion ein — gipflig ist und abweicht von einer einfachen geometrischen Degression. Deshalb wurden verschiedene ?konometrische Modelle, die entsprechende Verteilungen der zeitlich verz?gerten Investitionsreaktion implizieren, auf ihre Anwendbarkeit überprüft. Das erste der schlie\lich ausgew?hlten Modelle beinhaltet eine Gewichtung der zeitlichen Verz?gerungen der erkl?renden Variablen, die mit Verteilungen vom Pascal Typ beschrieben werden kann. Das zweite Modell basiert auf der Gamma-Verteilung, die der Pascal-Verteilung gleicht, aber unter anderem ein spezielles (nicht-lineares) Sch?tzverfahren erfordert. Punktsch?tzungen des ersten Modells führten für beide L?nder zu wenig überzeugenden Reaktionsverl?ufen. Deshalb wurden bedingte Sch?tzungen vorgenommen, die die verfügbaren a priori Informationen über die Voraussetzungen nutzen, welchen die kritischen Parameter entsprechen müssen, um plausible Reaktionsverl?ufe zu gew?hrleisten. Die so modifizierten Sch?tzergebnisse wurden mit denen verglichen, die eine Gamma-Verteilung implizieren. Es kann festgehalten werden, da\ sogar unter den vorherrschenden, nicht-idealen ?konometrischen Bedingungen (insbesondere Multikollinearit?t und autokorrelierte Residuen) ein ausreichendes Ma\ an übereinstimmung beim Vergleich der beiden Modelle zu registrieren war und da\ der Zweil?ndervergleich signifikante Unterschiede in der Reaktion der Investitionen auf die Akzeleratorvariable nahelegt.

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Résumé Modèles de la réaction de l’investissement — le cas des industries secondaires des Etats-Unis et de la République Fédérale Allemande. — Dans cette étude l’explication théorique est basée sur un accélérateur variable qui résulte d’une relation variable entre commandes re?ues et capacité disponible. Pour l’industrie secondaire allemande, aussi bien que pour celle des Etats-Unis, les tests de corrélation ont donné lieu à supposer que la réaction de l’investissement ne forme, dans son mouvement, qu’un seul sommet, et qu’elle diffère d’une simple degression géométrique. On a donc examiné l’applicabilité de différents modèles économétriques qui impliquent diverses distributions de la réaction retardée de l’investissement. Le premier des modèles qu’on a finalement choisis contient une pondération des retardements des variables explicatrices, pondération qu’on peut décrire par des distributions du type Pascal. Le second modèle est basé sur la distribution gamma, qui ressemble à la distribution Pascal tout en exigeant, entre autres, un genre spécial (non-linéaire) d’estimation. Les estimations simples du premier modèle ayant donné, pour les deux pays, des mouvements de réaction peu convaincants, on a introduit des estimations conditionnelles qui utilisent les informations a priori disponibles en ce qui concerne les conditions auxquelles doivent correspondre les paramètres critiques afin de garantir des mouvements de réaction plausibles. Les résultats de ces estimations modifiées furent comparés avec ceux qui impliquent une distribution gamma. On peut dire que, même sous les conditions économétriques actuelles, qui ne sont pas idéales, on a pu constater une mesure suffisante de conformité entre les deux modèles, et que la comparaison des deux pays fait ressortir des différences significatives en ce qui concerne la réaction de l’investissement à l’accélérateur variable.

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Resumen Modelos de reactión de inversiones. El caso de la industria manufacturera estadounidense y alemana. — La base teórica del présente trabajo es una variante del proceso de aceleración en la que entra como variable explicativa el cambio de la relatión entre la corriente de pedidos y la capacidad productiva disponible. Diversos análisis de regresión efectuados con datos de la industria manufacturera de la Alemania Occidental y los Estados Unidos hacen suponer, que la reacción en cadena de las inversiones es unimodal y diferente a una simple degresión geométrica. Por eso, el autor ensayó varios modelos econométricos con diferentes distribuciones de los desfases en las reacciones de inversion. El primero de los dos modelos finalmente elejidos presenta una ponderación de los desfases de las variables explicativas que se ajusta a una distribución del tipo Pascal. En el segundo modelo la estructura de desplazamiento de las variables se acomoda a una distribución del tipo gama, que se parece a la de Pascal, pero que requiere un método de estimación especial (no-lineal). Las estimaciones incondicionados por medio del primer modelo no llegaron a arrojar resultados satisfactorios para ninguno de los dos palses. Debido a ello se llevaron a cabo estimaciones condicionadas, habida cuenta de las informaciones disponibles a priori que deben de corresponder con los parámetros crfticos si se quieren garantizar módulos de reacción plausibles. Los resultados así modificados fueron comparados con los que se obtienen por medio del segundo modelo. Se puede constatar que a pesar de reinar condiciones econométricas poco ideales (sobre todo debido a multicolinearidades y autocorrelaciones en los residuos) los resultados encontrados a través de los dos modelos muestran una semejanza satisfactoria, y que los módulos de reacción de las inversiones ante variaciones del acelerador difieren significativamente de un país a otro.

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Riassunto Modelli di reazione d’investimento — il caso dell’industria di trasformazione americana e tedesco occidentale. — Base di partenza teorica dello studio è una variante di acceleratore con mutamenti della relazione tra afflusso di ordinazioni e capacità disponibile come variabile esplicativa. Tanto per l’industria di trasformazione tedesco occidentale quanto per quella americana, test di correlazione diedero motivo di supporre che il decorso temporale della reazione d’investimento ha un vertice e si allontana da una seplice digressione geometrica. Per questo furono verificati nella loro applicabilité diversi modelli econometrici che implicano relative ripartizioni della reazione d’investimento temporalmente ritardata. Il primo dei modelli alla fine scelti contiene una ponderazione dei ritardi temporali della variabile esplicativa ehe puó essere descritta con ripartizioni del tipo Pascal. II secondo modello si basa sulla ripartizione gamma ehe è simile alla ripartizione Pascal, ma ehe richiede tra l’altro uno spéciale (non lineare) procedimento di stima. Valutazioni di punti del primo modello condussero per ambedue i Paesi a decorsi di reazione poco convincenti. Perciò furono intraprese valutazioni condizionate che utilizzano le informazioni disponibili a priori sui presupposti, a cui devono corrispondere i parametri critici per garantire plausibili decorsi di reazione. I risultati di stima così modificati furono confrontati con quelli che implicano una ripartizione gamma. Può essere tenuto come punto fermo che perfino tra le non ideali condizioni econometriche predominanti (specialmente multicollinearità e residui autocorrelativi) si registrò una misura sufficiente di concordanze nel confronto dei due modelli e che il confronto tra due Paesi propone differenze significanti nella reazione degli investimenti sulla variabile di acceleratore.

     

对设立职工基本医疗保险个人帐户的质疑

本文介绍了认股权证与普通买入期权的差异 ,分析认股权证的主要功能 ;通过对影响认股权证价格的六个因素进行讨论 ,最后对认股权证的几种定价方法进行讨论和比较。     

房地产市场中的土地价格问题——土地价格刚性探讨

一、地价越高越好吗?——一个价值判断问题主流(目前政府部门所采纳)的观点认为:随着我国城市建设的飞速发展,城市基础设施、配套服务及周边环境的改善使土地价值日益凸显,地价作为土地价值的反映,理应有所提升。地价的上涨反映了市场供求状况,有利于土地这种稀缺资源的优化配置。另外,较高的地价有利于筹集更多的城市建设资金,城市的发展与地价之间会形成一种良性互动。反对者(主要是房地产企业)从宏观经济发展的角度出发,认为:地价的不断上涨催升了房价上涨,一方面形成了房地产泡沫,另一方面提高了城市居住和土地资源利用的成本,不利于吸…     

The Price of Electricity in Indonesia

Persistent shortages of electric power and of capital to fund power system expansion have recently prompted the Indonesian government to allow the private sector to supply electricity. Price has become a controversial issue—both the retail price private producers would charge the public, and the wholesale price at which they would seil in bulk to the state utility, PLN The government has traditionally kept the retail price below cost to support economic development objectives, and subsidies have covered PLN's losses. Opponents of private power argue that without subsidies private suppliers would have to raise the retail price to unacceptable levels—according to PLN, almost 50% more per kilowatt-hour than its own price. The paper assesses PLN's claim by quantifying hidden subsidies, and demonstrates that, if these were properly taken into account, the average retail price per kilowatt-hour for 1980–93 should have been 46% higher than it was.     

Knowledge spill-over from new to old industries: The case of German synthetic dyes and textiles (1878-1913)

We construct a data set of long-lived German patents of patent classes dyes (22) and dyeing (8) to measure the accumulation path of technological knowledge with respect to dyeing textiles. Using these data we show with a vector error correction model that in the German Empire inter-industry knowledge spill-over between the new chemical industry and the old textile industry created an upward circle of “endogenous growth.” The increasing demand for synthetic dyes of the prospering textile firms initiated further research and development projects of the chemical firms that led to new patents and via customer consulting and customer training to additional economic benefits of the textile industry.     

Residential Consumer Switching and Electricity Restructuring Policy: The Pennsylvania Power Market

Without significant price reduction, high consumer switching rates to competitive power suppliers have been criticized as a result of either the artificially high price to compare (PC) acting as the benchmark price that competitive generators must meet, or the critical mass effect from switching consumers. This paper builds a simple model to explore how the restructuring policy determines residential switching behavior. When the PC increases over time, whether it reflects the rising wholesale price adequately or not, a consistent price reduction policy will naturally induce an early-stage high switching rate. In contrast, a required switching rate policy that is associated with both an artificial price cut at the early stage and a longer period of stranded cost recovery can accelerate switching effectively. Two high-cost Pennsylvania utilities, which demonstrate opposite movements of residential switching rate under different restructuring policies, are examined to confirm that the high switching rate just results from the policy design, not from the subsidy in PC discussed in (Joskow, Paul L. “Why Do We Need Electricity Retailers? Or, Can You Get It Cheaper Wholesale?” Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, MIT, Revised discussion draft, 2000b), or the critical mass effect concluded in (Reitzes, James D., Lisa V. Wood, J. A. Quinn, and Kelli L. Sheran. “Designing Standard-Offer Service to Facilitate Electric Retail Restructuring.” The Electricity Journal 15, 9, 2003, pp. 34–51). Switching rates play no role in evaluating the success or failure of a restructuring.     

The Liberalized Dutch Green Electricity Market: Lessons from a Policy Experiment

In order to meet the Kyoto targets, in the Netherlands 9% of electricity consumption should be generated from renewable resources by 2010. In this paper, we discuss and comment on the green energy policy the Dutch government adopted in 2001 and 2002 in order to reach this goal, and the new subsidy system that will be in place as of 2003. On the one hand, the policies from the past were successful since they led to 10% of electricity consumption being green in 2001, with a further increase to 13% in 2002. On the other hand, the government argued that the policy was too costly and inefficient. We analyze whether the arguments the Dutch government used to get the new law accepted hold water and we show that mainly the Dutch supply companies benefited from the generous subsidies that the government provided.     

Spoils of War: The Political Legacy of the German hyperinflation

I study the link between monetary policy and electoral outcomes by linking new data on the 1923 German hyperinflation and the vote share of the main parties of Weimar Republic from 1924 to 1933. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in prices in over 280 cities, I find that inflation predicts the vote share of the Volksrechtspartei, an association-turned-party of inflation victims, and positively correlates with the Communists in the 1932 elections. Hyperinflation also leads to a decline in turnout, with a loss of confidence in the German institutions. However, contrary to received wisdom, areas more affected by inflation did not see a higher vote share for the Nazi party. Results are robust to a range of specifications, including models in differences, panel data with fixed effects, Coarsened Exact Matching estimation, Conley standard errors, and an instrumental variable strategy.     

德国长期经济增长的TFP启示:1875～2013年

文章介绍了德国经济增长数据的历史演变、主要学说以及评估结果。通过使用Hoffmann/Sommariva、Burhop、Ritschl、Maddison、Merkel和德国官方序列,用资本份额法和计量估计法测算了1875~2013年德国全要素生产率(TFP)增长趋势。结论认为,传统资本份额法由于使用了较小的资本产出弹性,可能会高估德国TFP增长。从长期来看,德国TFP增长呈明显的冲击-弱化特征,转折性提升出现在纳粹时期,而1973年后逐渐向一战以前的状态回归。德国经济增长方式转型并非是自然渐进的过程。