The paradox of gender voting: An exploratory analysis

Voting studies have documented that white collar workers tend to vote for conservative parties and blue collar workers for parties that advance working class interests. In the United States during the era (1980–1992) of Republican Presidents Reagan and Bush, women who worked in white collar jobs tended to vote for the Democratic party and men for the more conservative Republican party. This shift created the paradox of gender voting, which this article explains. The effect of gender on vote is small but attains statistical significance due to the suppressor effect of occupation. Two interpretations of the gender effect are tested: thematerialist holds that women's occupation and class identification affect this gap; thepost-materialist suggests that affluence is pivotal. The materialist interpretation fits the data from the survey of the national election of 1984 — the middle-most election of the three won by the Republicans— but the post-materialist interpretation may explain the vote of the very affluent.To Morris Rosenberg and Roberta Simmons, fine sociologists who clarified the suppressor effect and causes of self-esteem.     

What is the role of perceived leadership capacity in presidential politics?

The relevance of leadership models in presidential leadership, and principally the role of perceived leadership in presidential election years, is an area of study with limited development but increasing importance. This study explores the relationship between young voters' leadership assessment of presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain, and their reports of voting behavior during the 2008 presidential election. Leadership perceptions were collected from 812 respondents prior to the election. Results indicate that candidate leadership assessments have a significant effect on candidate preference after controlling for the impact of party identification and self‐perceived political efficacy. Further, political efficacy significantly impacted respondents' intent to vote in the election after controlling for these same variables. Party affiliation produced significant differences across the political ideology, leadership ratings, political efficacy, and likelihood of voting variables. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications as they pertain to political leadership.     

Action embedded in social structure: A systematic theory Part II,explanations

This research develops a systematic theory, which premises a responsible and reasonable actor, of how social structure can affect rational social action, applies this general theory to explain 29 specific empirical findings about voting, and illustrates how deductive theories can synthesize prior empirical findings and provide a focus for subsequent empirical research. Part II, Explanations applies the systematic theory to account for specific empirical propositions that relate social statuses to the decisions voters make. Voters are classified by such graduated social statuses as socioeconomic class, age, and education; and by such nominal social statuses as religion, urban or rural residence, region, gender, race, and ethnicity. Positions on two key issues affect voting choice, the desire for economic equity and the desire for social equality. The members of the various social groups interpret these issues as they affect their own self-interest, and align with the party they perceive as furthering their interests. To corroborate aspects of the theory and to quantify the effects of the variables, survey data are analyzed.     

Action embedded in social structure: A systematic theory Part I,theory and evidence

This research develops a systematic theory, which premises a responsible and reasonable actor, of how social structure can affect rational social action, applies this general theory to explain 29 specific empirical findings about voting, and illustrates how deductive theories can synthesize prior empirical findings and provide a focus for subsequent empirical research. Part II, Explanations applies the systematic theory to account for specific empirical propositions that relate social statuses to the decisions voters make. Voters are classified by such graduated social statuses as socioeconomic class, age, and education; and by such nominal social statuses as religion, urban or rural residence, region, gender, race, and ethnicity. Positions on two key issues affect voting choice, the desire for economic equity and the desire for social equality. The members of the various social groups interpret these issues as they affect their own self-interest, and align with the party they perceive as furthering their interests. To corroborate aspects of the theory and to quantify the effects of the variables, survey data are analyzed.     

Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls

Pre‐election polls can suffer from survey effects, causing biases in forecasted election outcomes. We advocate a simple methodology to estimate the magnitude of survey effects, by collecting data both before and after the election. This method is illustrated by means of a field study with data concerning the 2009 European Parliament elections in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, especially for individuals with low intention to vote. For our data, the overall survey effect on party shares is small. This effect can be more substantial, for example, if political orientation and voting intention are correlated in the sample.     

The greening of British politics?

The spectacular success of the British Greens in winning 15% of the vote in the 1989 elections for the European parliament contrasts starkly with their previous failures. The turnaround in their fortunes is attributable in part to increasing awareness of environmental issues, both domestic and global, but especially to changes in the state of party competition: the collapse of the Liberal and Social Democratic Alliance, the unpopularity and negative campaign of the Conservative party, and the Labour party's abandonment of unilateral nuclear disarmament, all exacerbated by low turnout in an election for a parliament few Britons knew or cared much about. It is likely, however, that in a general election more usual conditions of political competition will obtain and that, because of the disciplines of the British electroal system, the Greens' success of 1989 will not be repeated in national elections.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneous Treatment Under Regression Discontinuity Design: Application to Female High School Enrolment

This paper undertakes a regression discontinuity (RD) framework with multiple cutoffs unlike typical RD setting where researchers normalize the score variable and pool all the observations. This paper explores this heterogeneity in the effect of Islamic mayor on female secular high schooling in Turkey using the multiple cutoff RD framework developed in Cattaneo et al. (2016). The presence of many parties in the 1994 municipality election in Turkey means that vote share of the strongest opponent party can vary substantially leading to different cutoffs. Meyersson (2014) finds that Islamic mayors of 1994 promoted female high schooling using a normalized and pooled RD framework, which averages the effect across all the different cutoffs. We extend his work by segregating the effect of Islamic mayor across different opponent party's vote shares. Our results suggest that the positive effect on female secular high school attainment was more pronounced in municipalities where the strongest opponent party was secular than where the opponent was conservative. This heterogeneity can be attributed to a policy change in 1999, which restricted religious high school graduates from entering universities.     

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists

Stochastic models of elections typically indicate that all parties, in equilibrium, will adopt positions at the electoral center. Empirical analyses discussed in this paper suggest that convergence of this kind is rarely observed. Here we examine a stochastic electoral model where parties differ in their valences – the electorally perceived, non-policy “quality” of the party leader. It is assumed that valence may either be exogenous, in the sense of being an intrinsic characteristic of the leader, or may be due to the contributions of party activists, who donate time and money and thus enhance electoral support for the party. Theorem 1 shows that vote maximization depends on balancing these two opposed effects. Theorem 2 provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to the electoral mean when activist valence is zero. The paper then examines empirical electoral models for the Netherlands circa 1980 and Britain in 1979, 1992 and 1997 and shows that party divergence from the electoral mean cannot be accounted for by exogenous valence alone. The balance condition suggests that the success of the Labour party in the election of 1997 can be attributed to a combination of high exogenous valence and pro-Europe activist support.     

新时期思想政治工作方法有机结合应用的探讨

党的十一届三中全会开启了改革开放的历史新时期，从此人们的思想观念实现了从束缚、封闭到解放、进步、务实，再到开放、科学、创新的历史性跨越，要求我党的思想政治工作方法要与时俱进。新时期的思想政治工作，是为党的中心工作服务的，政治工作者通过一定的方法，让工作对象在思想、观点、政治立场上保持先进，具有鲜明的党性、实践性和群众性。思想政治工作的方法有很多，如何将现有的方法与工作对象有机地结合起来，是提高思想工作效率的关键，也是值得思想政治工作者探讨的新课题。     

Measuring public opinion via digital footprints

Do digital traces accurately reflect individual preferences? Can signals from social media be used to measure public opinion? This paper provides evidence in favour of these hypotheses. We test a regression and post-stratification strategy that combines samples of digital traces with a stratification frame containing individual-level socio-economic data, in order to generate area forecasts of the outcome social phenomena of interest. In our example, we forecast the two-party vote of Democrats and Republicans in the 2018 Texas congressional district and Senate election. Our implementation assumes we can observe, and sample, individuals signaling their preference by favoring one virtual location over another; in our case, visiting Democrat versus Republican Facebook pages during the election campaign. Over the course of seven weeks preceding the mid-term elections we generate vote share forecasts which do not use any traditional survey data as input. Our results indicate that individuals leave digital traces that reflect their preferences.     

构建和谐企业 创新思想政治工作

思想政治工作是我们党的优良传统和政治优势，为中国共产党的长期斗争实践提供了强大的精神动力和政治保证。文章结合南宁市城市建设投资发展总公司的实际情况，从3个方面阐述了企业思想政治工作的创新方法。     

Perceived organizational support and organizational identification: joint moderating effects of employee exchange ideology and employee investment

Organizational identification (OID) can be developed out of social exchange practices within an organizational setting. Drawing on social exchange theory, we propose that the effect of perceived organizational support (POS) on OID is stronger for employees with stronger exchange ideology. We further argue that employee investment in an organization may also create a social exchange process that positively influences OID. We expect that employee investment moderates not only the effect of POS on OID, but also the enhancing effect of exchange ideology on the effect of POS on OID. Specifically, POS has a stronger positive effect on OID when exchange ideology is high and employee investment is low. When employee investment is high, POS has a weaker effect on OID regardless of employees' exchange ideology. These effects were empirically supported by a survey. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

The flypaper effect and political strength

Simple models of local government behavior predict equal effects of private income and unconditional federal grants on local government expenditures. Numerous empirical analyses, however, find that the effect of grants is larger than the income effect. We argue that this flypaper effect may be a result of weak political leaderships in multi–issue and multi–party decision–making environments. In multi–issue institutions, a strong political leadership may reduce inefficiency due to interest group influence and inter–party bargaining in the local council. Utilizing data for Norwegian local governments in the 1930s, we find that political strength reduces the size of the flypaper effect. When the local council consists of only one political party, we cannot reject absence of a flypaper effect, while the flypaper effect is large in fragmented local councils. Received: June 2000 / accepted: February 2001     

Endogenous party structure

This paper proposes a model of two-party representative democracy on a single-dimensional political space, in which voters choose their parties in order to influence the parties’ choices of representative. After two candidates are selected as the median of each party’s support group, Nature determines the candidates’ relative likability (valence). Based on the candidates’ political positions and relative likability, voters vote for the preferable candidate without being tied to their party’s choice. We show that (1) there exists a nontrivial equilibrium under natural conditions, and (2) the equilibrium party border and the ex ante probabilities of the two-party candidates winning are sensitive to the distribution of voters. In particular, we show that if a party has a more concentrated subgroup, then the party tends to alienate its centrally located voters, and the party’s probability of winning the final election is reduced. Even if voter distribution is symmetric, an extremist party (from either side) can emerge as voters become more politically divided.     

从股权结构特征对控股股东掠夺问题的影响研究

控股股东对中小投资者的利益掠夺已经成为公司治理的突出问题。产权理论认为所有权与控制权的不对称是造成利益侵占问题的根本原因。包括控股股东持股比例,控制方式和股权制衡状况等内容的所有权结构特征,作为一种重要的公司治理机制,在很大程度上影响了控股股东的掠夺行为。据此提出了完善股权治理的对策。     

The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock,FX and VIX markets

The U.S. presidential election is one of the global political events that have the profound effects on the Global Financial Markets (GFMs). The aim of the study is to examine Stock, FX and VIX markets under the U.S. presidential election 2016. The findings strongly suggest that ‘U.S. presidential election effects’ hold in equity and FX markets across the GFMs. The empirical outcome signifies that markets are inefficient in the short-run (election year) and allows the opportunity to make abnormal gains from the market. The ‘Republican president elect’ has shown negative effects on the Nifty50, S&PASX200, and IPC equity markets while FTSE100, DJIA, Top40, EuroStoxx50 and Nikkei225 have reported positive returns. The Trumps’ proposal on international trade has caused major loss in the global currency market against the U.S. dollar. The investors’ sentiment to be measured extremely low on the poll announcement day but VXJ and AXVI based market participants have shown very high degree of concern. The Bearish-run election effects to be observed during the election period while post election period has shown Bull-run effects (Asia-pacific markets).     

Exploring the value of party political advertising for youth electoral engagement: an analysis of the 2001 British General Election advertising campaigns

One of the central, non‐party issues in the latter days of the 2001 British General Election campaign was encouraging the electorate to vote. With turnout at British elections in decline, particularly among young people, British democracy appears to be facing a crisis. This disengagement offered both opportunities and challenges for the election advertising campaigns, however, the campaigns employed have been accused of failing to engage a disinterested young electorate. The aim of this paper is to explore youth attitudes to electoral advertising and to explore its value for public servants tasked with increasing voter engagement and turnout among young people for future British general elections. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Political ideology,social capital,and government innovativeness: evidence from the US states

We use the number of finalists and winners recognized by the Innovations in American Government Awards (IAGA) programme to measure state government innovativeness from 1986 to 2013. The measure is moderately related to two existing state policy innovativeness indexes. The fifty states vary remarkably and persistently in government innovativeness, which is more driven by internal antecedents than external ones. We find that between-state effects outperform within-state effects in explaining government innovativeness. We also reveal that government ideology, citizen ideology, and social capital are positively related to government innovativeness. The index developed in this study can be used in pertinent studies, and the findings contribute to the literature on public sector innovation.