Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Ecological Inference: The R×C Case

In this paper we propose Bayesian and frequentist approaches to ecological inference, based on R × C contingency tables, including a covariate. The proposed Bayesian model extends the binomial-beta hierarchical model developed by K ing , R osen and T anner (1999) from the 2×2 case to the R × C case. As in the 2×2 case, the inferential procedure employs Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. As such, the resulting MCMC analysis is rich but computationally intensive. The frequentist approach, based on first moments rather than on the entire likelihood, provides quick inference via nonlinear least-squares, while retaining good frequentist properties. The two approaches are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data on voting patterns in Weimar Germany. In the final section of the paper we provide an overview of a range of alternative inferential approaches which trade-off computational intensity for statistical efficiency.     

Is Red or Blue More Likely to Narrow the Gap? The Effect of CEO Political Ideology on CEO-Employee Pay Disparity

How does CEO political ideology influence the pay disparity between a CEO and typical firm employees? Drawing on the upper echelons theory, we postulate that politically liberal CEOs are more inclined to address within-firm vertical pay disparity versus conservative or neutral CEOs, because liberals attend more closely to potential inequality issues and are more open to social changes. We furthermore contend that the effect of CEO political ideology varies across certain contextual factors. Results based on a sample of United States public firms support our arguments. Our study contributes to the literature on income inequality by highlighting CEO political ideology as a crucial determinant and investigating the boundary conditions.     

The Estimable Functions of Age, Period and Generation Effects: A Political Application

In traditional social research, it is customary to assume that the birth cohort, period and age are scaled as follows: cohort = period – age. Starting from this constraint, the joint analysis of the three effects is not estimable, as one phenomenon is completely determined by the remaining two. In this study we will see how, in given situations, the use of the concept of political generation, to replace the cohort concept normally used, allows us to overcome this obstacle and how in this case estimable models may easily be created.     

浅谈政工干部的“内功”锻炼

文章从思想观念的转变、思想政治工作科学性的理解、良好的学习环境等3个方面探讨了如何加强政工干部的“内功”锻炼。     

Union security rights at the polls: A call for modeling right-to-work voting

From 1944 to 1986, 19 states held 27 referendums on right-to-work legislation, with 22.5 million people voting on the proposals. Despite its prominence as a public issue, most research on right-to-work laws focuses on their industrial relations impacts, and not on employees’ individual rights to refrain from joining unions or those same employees’ responsibilities to support their bargaining unit representative. Nor has there been any research on what citizen groups determine those rights and responsibilities in a right-to-work referendum. This study explores a potential operational model of anti-right-to-work voting with a multiple regression analysis of Missouri’s 1978 right-to-work election results, and hopes to serve as a stimulus to additional research on these particular dimensions of the right-to-work issue.     

大学管理中辅导员思想政治工作能力的需求分析

高校学生辅导员思想政治工作能力培养的构成。从政治理论的理解能力、国情和世情敏锐的判断能力、学生的思想状态的洞察能力、学生的心理问题的辅导能力、思想政治工作方法的选择能力这五个方面对当前高校学生辅导员的思想政治工作能力提出要求。     

A political ideology lens on social entrepreneurship motivations

ABSTRACT

The traditional literature regarding social entrepreneurship does not question the political dimension. On the contrary, it tends to de-politicize societal issues. A growing number of researchers underline how this perspective cannot address the complexity and the dialogical nature of social entrepreneurship. However, while there may be a case for incorporating a political perspective, there is currently no conceptual framework to systematically inform an empirical exploration of the role played by the political vision of entrepreneurs. In this paper, we use the concept of political ideology to offer a solid framework to show how politics can shape social entrepreneurs’ motivations. More precisely we identify three political profiles – anti-statist, reformist and neoliberal – which shape the motives to engage in social entrepreneurship. We take an embedded case study approach of 17 social entrepreneurs involved in a social innovation boot camp and reveal the existence of both, left and right-wing approaches in social entrepreneurship.     

我国内部控制强制披露政策的干预效应研究——来自断点回归的经验证据

聚焦我国非国有控股主板上市公司,严格筛选样本,构造精确断点回归模型,专注研究我国全面内部控制评价和披露政策本身的因果干预效应。研究发现,我国的内部控制强制披露政策有正的干预效应,内部控制政策的实施使得公司对资源的利用效率和效果得以提高,合规本身对企业来讲意义重大。建议进一步推进我国上市公司全面内部控制建设和披露工作,将强制实施范围扩展到非主板上市公司,在全部上市公司范围内实施内部控制强制披露和审计。     

新形势下“以德铸魂”加强职工思想道德建设的探讨

在市场经济改革不断深入的新形势下,针对职工思想道德建设方面出现的新问题、新情况和新矛盾,认真研究和把握职工思想状况及其变化规律,提高职工思想政治工作的针对性和有效性,增强思想政治工作的凝聚力、向心力、公信力、影响力,是每一位思想政治工作者应该探索的课题。     

新形势下单位思想政治工作创新的研究

"思想政治工作是经济工作和其他一切工作的生命线,是我们党和社会主义国家的重要政治优势。"在我国改革开放和社会主义建设事业迅猛发展,尤其是在科技体制改革日益深入的形势下,如何加强和改进单位的思想政治工作,是摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。本文按照提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的思路,从做好思想政治工作的重要性,探索思想政治工作新思路,做好单位思想政治工作的对策和方法三方面做了细致的分析。     

Millsian causation

The Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) theory of causation is based on the assumption that randomly sampling the variables of a causal system will yield a joint probability distribution that satisfies the Markovian condition. It is shown here that this condition can be split into two parts, one of which is named the Millsian condition. It is further shown that the Millsian condition alone implies that causally unrelated sets of variables are conditionally independent given their common causes, very likely a key requirement stated by John Stuart Mill 150 years ago. In Millsian causation, unlike Markovian causation, it is possible for an indirect cause to be associated with its effect even when controlling for the intermediate direct causes. This phenomenon is explained by taking into account the existence of potential causal modulation.     

PRE-TEST ESTIMATION AND TESTING IN ECONOMETRICS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Abstract. This paper surveys a range of important developments in the area of preliminary-test inference in the context of econometric modelling. Both pre-test estimation and pre-test testing are discussed. Special attention is given to recent contributions and results. These include analyses of pre-test strategies under model mis-specification and generalised regression errors; exact sampling distribution results; and pre-testing inequality constraints on the model's parameters. In many cases, practical advice is given to assist applied econometricians in appraising the relative merits of pre-testing. It is shown that there are situations where pre-testing can be advantageous in practice     

因果分析图在供应链管理绩效评估中的应用研究

首先简述了现有的常用供应链管理方法与绩效评估方法及其存在的不足，然后详细介绍了因果分析法及其在供应链管理绩效评估中的具体应用与优越性。