Unemployment and Economic Integration for Developing Countries

While financial or trade integration between countries may increase the size of the market and aid the adoption of more advanced technologies, will it also increase the level of urban unemployment for a developing country? In this model, there is unemployment in the urban sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Financial firms provide capital to manufacturing firms and they also engage in oligopolistic competition. We show that an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector changes neither the level of technology nor the level of employment in the manufacturing sector. While financial or trade integration between developing countries leads manufacturing firms to adopt more advanced technologies, the level and rate of employment in the manufacturing sector will not deteriorate.     

Inflation‐Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

There is growing evidence from multi‐country studies indicating that there is a turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth beyond which the detrimental effects of high inflation offset the stimulating effects of mild inflation on growth. However, it is not clear whether it is appropriate to assume an identical turning point in the inflation and growth relation across countries at various stages of development. Using a non‐linear specification and the data from four groups of countries at various stages of development, this paper examines the possibility for a family rather than a single inverted U relation across countries at various stages of development. The estimated turning points are found to vary widely from as high as 15% per year for the lower‐middle‐income countries to 11% for the low‐income countries, and 5% for the upper‐middle‐income countries. No statistically detectable, long‐run relationship between inflation and growth is evident for the OECD countries. The results indicate the potential bias in the estimation of inflation–growth nexus that may result from combining various countries at different levels of development. The existence of such a degree of heterogeneity across countries at various stages of development also suggests the inappropriateness of setting a single, uniform numerical policy target applicable to all (developing) countries.     

现行国际货币体系的不公正性与发展中国家的策略

现行国际货币体系的基本特征是储备货币多元化和以浮动汇率制为主流的汇率制度选择自由化，发展中国家似乎摆脱了原有的布雷顿森林体系和纪律和约束。但实际上，在现行国际货币体系下，发展中国家在储备货币依赖、江率制度选择、国际收支调节和抑制国际投资本冲击等方面均受到不利的影响（甚至是伤害）。本文首先论述了现行国际货币体系对发展中国家不公正性的表现，然后深入分析了其根源，最后提出了发展中国家应采取的若干策略。     

发展中国家经济安全问题的制度分析

在市场经济全球化迅速发展的背景下,制度因素已成为影响发展中国家经济安全的最大瓶颈.因此,拟从新制度主义的视角,从制度结构和制度供求两个维度对发展中国家经济安全的影响机制进行深入系统的阐释,在此基础之上,提出应对经济安全问题的具体对策和措施.     

论环境与国际贸易一体化

通过分析国际贸易对环境的影响,探讨如何促进国际贸易对环境的正面效应和减少或消除其潜在的负面效应。论述了环境与贸易决策一体化的客观必然性。     

经济全球化对发展中国家经济发展的影响与对策

随着经济全球化的发展,经济全球化自身存在的诸多不足与局限也日益显现.这些不足和局限对发展中国家的经济发展也带来了多方面的消极影响.对此,发展中国家需要在国内和国际两个层面建立起有效的发展机制,才能实现自己的经济发展目标.     

外贸与我国经济增长关系的计量分析

文章论述了传统的对外贸与经济增长关系的测算方法存在的缺陷,建立了新的模型,测算了我国出口对经济增长的直接效应和间接效应,从而对我国外贸在我国经济发展中的地位、作用和贡献做出一个较客观的测量和评价。     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

国际贸易、技术转移与经济增长——基于中国工业产业面板数据的实证研究

基于中国工业产业面板数据,实证研究了国际贸易的技术转移及其技术外溢效应对中国技术水平提升和经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：通过国际贸易渠道来自OECD成员国的技术转移对中国工业产业的技术进步产生了积极影响;美国和日本通过国际贸易对中国工业产业技术进步的拉动作用明显高于其他发达国家。     

中国对发展中国家出口的地区结构与影响因素分析

中国与发展中国家的贸易联系越来越密切.在当前金融危机下,促进中国对发展中国家的出口具有重要的意义.通过对中国与164个发展中国家贸易关系的考察,揭示了中国对不同地区和不同发展程度发展中国家出口的地区结构和贸易潜力以及决定因素.从政策上分析,中国可以利用区域性的优惠贸易安排和"走出去"战略,进一步促进与发展中国家特别是非洲和美洲中低收入国家的贸易联系.     

税收与收入分配:基于发展中国家个人所得税的思考

对于税收分配作用的不同理解和看法导致了税制设计方案的差异。发达国家普遍采用的累进综合个人所得税在发展中国家里面临着更高的管理成本、遵从成本、经济效率成本和政治成本,因而可能不是发展中国家实现收入分配职能的最优策略。对于中国而言,未来个人所得税的改革方向应当是在合理确定劳动所得和资本所得税负水平的基础上,根据纳税人家庭人口数量及就业状况对费用减除标准加以细分。在商品税方面,对日常生活必需品和农业生产资料免征增值税,将更多奢侈品纳入消费税的征收范围,并对与低收入群体日常生活密切相关的服务项目免征营业税。     

Governance Reforms and Growth: Some Ideas from Economic Theory

Ideas from the theory of incentives and organization are deployed to examine how some aspects of economic governance—primarily protection of property rights, enforcement of contracts, and oversight regulation—can be improved for achieving better economic growth and development. Some suggestions for reform of governance institutions in developing countries are offered.     

国际直接投资对发展中国家的经济影响

20世纪90年代以来,经济全球化的迅猛发展使国际直接投资产生了很多重要变化。在这种新的环境和条件下,这些变化使得国际直接投资对发展中国家产生了新的经济影响。认识到这种变化,对于发展中国家吸引外资,以及最大程度地利用外资,同时限制其不利影响,都是有积极意义的。     

Modern sector development: The role of exports and institutions in developing countries

A prospering modern sector is crucial for the successful long‐term development in developing countries as it provides income and job growth for large shares of society. While this idea is widely accepted, there is, perhaps surprisingly, far less analysis about the exact determinants of this economic modernization process. In this article we empirically investigate whether international trade and institutions, both much discussed in the debates on general growth and development, are particularly important for the diffusion of production in the modern sector within developing societies. In a large cross section time‐series sample, we provide robust estimation results that point to an important role of institutions and to a nonlinear impact of manufacturing exports. Our results, which are derived using a range of estimators and are ultimately less susceptible to endogeneity concerns, also provide interesting insights into the role of natural resources and official development aid.     

金融稳定性与经济增长的机制分析——基于新兴市场国家和发达国家的两组数据

文章通过比较新兴市场国家和发达国家1994-2008年间金融稳定性对经济增长的作用机制发现,对于新兴市场国家而言,外债占GNP的比重和国际储备与外债比例的上升不利于金融稳定状态的保持,导致经济增长率下降,但总储蓄占GDP比例的上升和贸易额占GDP比重的提高会促进金融稳定,带动经济增长;而对于发达国家而言,海外证券投资与债券投资的增加以及实际利率的上升会维护金融稳定性,促进经济增长。由于一国金融稳定还受国际宏观因素的影响,因此国际金融体系的重建是保证各成员国金融稳定的重要内容。     

对外贸易对经济增长的贡献：理论与现实

通过梳理各种理论观点和国内外实证研究的结果,结合东亚发展的经验,认为在中国目前的经济发展阶段,对外贸易对经济增长的长期影响通过影响国内资本的存量、劳动力质量以及技术进步而发生作用,在短期内则主要通过出口扩大有效需求而发生作用。     

Product Market Integration and Wages in Unionized Countries

This paper addresses the effects of product market integration on wages. We develop a two–country general equilibrium model of international trade with imperfectly competitive product markets and unionized labor markets. Integration is modelled as either a fall in fixed or variable trade costs. A reduction in fixed trade costs leads to an unambiguous decrease in wages, whereas a reduction in variable trade costs has an ambiguous effect on wages.
JEL classification : F 15; J 5; L 13     

国际资本流动对经济增长的影响分析——基于国际数据的实证研究

基于1994～2009年68个国家的年度数据构建Panel Data变截距固定效应模型,通过对资本流向和流动方式的进一步细分,来考察资本流动对不同发展水平国家经济增长的影响。结果显示:境外国际资本流入对转型国家经济增长的促进作用明显强于发达国家,对发展中国家经济效应不显著;国际资本流出仅对发达国家经济增长有显著的促进作用,对发展中国家和转型国家的经济效应均不显著。     

Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Integration: Developments and Challenges

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was formed in 1967 for geopolitical reasons, but faced with the competitive threat from the North American Free Trade Agreement and the European Single Market, it embarked in 1992 on the ASEAN Free Trade Area in goods, followed by liberalization of services trade and investment flows. A subsequent competitive threat from the rise of China and India led to the ASEAN Economic Community in 2003, targeted at creating a single market and production base and a competitive region with equitable economic development and integrated with the global economy. The ASEAN Economic Community is not quite a common market as it allows for only freer flows of capital and free flows of skilled labor. ASEAN's economic diversity led to difficulties with implementation and the need to narrow the development gap. ASEAN's dependence on global markets and investors led to the emphasis on open regionalism, support of the World Trade Organization, and free trade agreements with its major trade and investment partners.     

Taxation of International Private Capital Flows and Securities Transactions in Developing Countries: Do Public Finance Considerations Augment the Macroeconomic Dividends?

This paper examines policies to tax international private capital flows and securities transactions in developing countries. Many recent studies focus on the macroeconomic dividends associated with these policies (namely, their contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability and lengthened investor time horizons). In this paper I explore whether the potential of these policies to raise much‐needed tax revenues in developing countries augments their well‐known macroeconomic benefits. To my knowledge, there has been no effort to examine systematically the public finance issues related to the taxation of international private capital flows or securities transactions in the developing country context. I conclude that the public finance implications of these policies in middle‐income developing countries offers additional support to the macroeconomic case for them. To different degrees, taxation of international private capital flows and securities transactions has the potential to raise modest revenues in middle‐income countries. However, far more important is the potential of these policies to offer valuable macroeconomic dividends on the national level. These national macroeconomic dividends have the potential to bear fruit globally. This is because experiences with financial contagion over the last decade suggest that global financial stability can be enhanced via the promotion of domestic financial stability in developing countries.