Debt, Growth and Budgetary Regimes

Within the Barro (1990) model of productive public services, but with the inclusion of public debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path, a set of welfare‐maximizing fiscal rules under two budgetary regimes – one with only the standard dynamic government budget constraint, and the other involving the golden rule of public finance. We demonstrate analytically that the optimal fiscal policy differs in the two budgetary regimes considered. We also analyse two cases within the second regime: one, where the ratio of current spending to tax revenues is parametrically given, and another, where this ratio is optimally chosen by the government.     

Endogenous growth, welfare and budgetary regimes

Within an optimizing endogenous growth model with productive public capital and government debt, we derive and characterize on the balanced growth path a set of welfare-maximizing fiscal rules under different budgetary regimes. It is shown that optimal fiscal policy depends on the specific budgetary stance considered.     

Selection of public servants into politics

Countries differ substantially in how they deal with politicians that come from the public sector. Most constitutions include incompatibility and ineligibility rules due to concerns about conflicts of interest and the politicization of the public service. We study how these rules affect the attractiveness of parliamentary mandates for public servants and thus the selection into politics. We compile a novel dataset that captures the fraction of public servants in 76 national legislatures as well as the respective (in)compatibility regimes. On average, there are seven percentage points fewer public servants in parliaments where a strict regime is in force. Supplementary evidence based on IV estimations shows that the fraction of public servants in parliament is positively correlated with government consumption, but not correlated with government effectiveness.     

The Congressional budget process,aggregate spending,and statutory budget rules

This paper compares the Congressional budget process (instituted in 1974) and the piecemeal appropriations process that preceded it. Previous theoretical analysis using spatial models of legislator preferences finds no systematic difference in relative spending levels under the two regimes. This paper instead uses a model of interest group lobbying. A legislature determines spending on a national public good and on subsidies to sector-specific interest groups. In the “appropriations process,” the Appropriations Committee proposes a budget that, because of interest group influence, involves overspending on subsidies. In the “budget process,” the Budget Committee proposes an aggregate level of spending (the budget resolution); then, the Appropriations Committee proposes a budget. A free rider problem among the interest groups inhibits the lobbying of the Budget Committee to increase the aggregate budget. If each group is sufficiently small, it takes the budget resolution as given, and lobbies the Appropriations Committee. Aggregate spending is lower and social welfare is higher under the budget process; however, provision of the national public good is suboptimal. The paper also analyzes statutory budget rules that limit spending levels, but can be revised by a simple majority vote. Here, the free rider problem prevents the groups from securing the required changes to budget rules.     

Ethnic identities,public spending and political regimes

Do democracies discriminate less against minorities as compared to non-democracies? How does the dominance of an ethnic group affect discrimination under various political regimes? We build a theory to analyse such questions. In our model, political leaders (democratically elected or not) decide on the allocation of spending on different types of public goods: a general public good and an ethnically-targetable public good which benefits the majority ethnic group while imposing a cost on the other minorities. We show that, under democracy, lower ethnic dominance leads to greater provision of the general public good while higher dominance implies higher provision of the ethnically-targetable good. Interestingly, the opposite relation obtains under dictatorship. This implies that political regime changes can favour or disfavour minorities based on the ambient level of ethnic dominance. Several historical events involving regime changes can be analysed within our framework and are consistent with our results.     

Boundedness and nonlinearities in public debt dynamics: A TAR assessment

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of public debts over more than four decades for two of the main developed countries: the USA and the UK. To do this, we apply nonlinearity tests and threshold models. While the first tests enable us to check for further changes in the data, threshold models are required to assess the switching-regime hypothesis and to apprehend the main changes in public debts through different regimes. Our results provide several interesting findings. First, for both countries, we noted several structural breaks associated with well-known economic downturns, oil shocks, debt crises and financial crashes. Second, public debt dynamics seem to be characterized by various threshold effects that can improve the modeling and forecasting of public debt evolution. It is important to note that public debts vary significantly according to the regime and that a regime can be induced by specific macroeconomic factors. Keeping a close eye on such factors may help economists and policymakers to better control future public debt evolutions.     

Central bank instruments, fiscal policy regimes, and the requirements for equilibrium determinacy

This paper examines the role of the monetary instrument choice for local equilibrium determinacy under sticky prices and different fiscal policy regimes. Corresponding to Benhabib et al.'s results for interest rate feedback rules [Benhabib, J., Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., 2001. Monetary policy and multiple equilibria. American Economic Review 91, 167–185], the money growth rate should not rise by more than one for one with inflation when the primary surplus is raised with public debt. Under an exogenous primary surplus, money supply should be accommodating—such that real balances grow with inflation—to ensure local equilibrium determinacy. When the central bank links the supply of money to government bonds by controlling the bond-to-money ratio, an inflation stabilizing policy can be implemented for both fiscal policy regimes. Local determinacy is then ensured when the bond-to-money ratio is not extremely sensitive to inflation, or when interest payments on public debt are entirely tax financed, i.e., the budget is balanced.     

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.     

Institutionalism and the New Classical Economics

Neoliberalism has transformed markets supplying public goods. Analysis of five real-world Australian markets reveals the eligibility rules for access and ongoing participation, interaction of participants, the role of intermediaries and government, the extent of competition, complex regulatory regimes shaping and controlling these markets, and key market outcomes. Contrary to neoliberalism's free market rhetoric and the view promulgated by mainstream economics, a spectrum of market configurations and governance regimes were found along with participation being highly dependent on technology access and skills, market outcomes inconsistent with policy rhetoric, market interrelationships posing adverse cumulative impacts, and government is strongly interventionist through multiple roles.     

Inequality and media capture

Popular support of redistributive policies depends on information they have about the tax system and efficiency of public projects. Mass media provides a convenient means for manipulating public opinion, even when voters understand that the media can be biased. I develop a theory of media capture in which the rich can influence information published in a media outlet at a cost. The model shows that higher inequality is associated with lower media freedom; this effect is stronger in democratic regimes. I find empirical support for the model in both panel data and cross-country analysis.     

Thresholds: A model of religious governance and evolution

Religious organizations set thresholds of belief and behavior required of their members. In a simple model of individual religious behavior, this paper shows that if a religion denies the benefits of membership to those who fall short of the threshold, it stands to gain an increase in compliance with its rules by forcing members to the edge of defection, hence the incentive to set the thresholds strategically. When members’ compliance costs are private information, the model yields several regimes: a pooling contract if costs are close enough to each other, a separating contract if costs are different enough, and an expulsion solution if the proportion of high-cost types in the total membership is too low. Changes in costs and in membership composition trigger changes in thresholds and switches between regimes, thus providing a model of religious governance and evolution. We then review the history of sectarianism in the three monotheistic religions and show that the model can help account for the basic differences between them as well as explain the historical evolution of dogmas and behavioral rules within each of them. A specialized case study focuses on the evolution of Catholic religious orders.     

Cyclical fiscal rules for oil-exporting countries

Budget-balance tax-gap rules are preferred to other fiscal policy rules to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility and welfare in oil-exporting countries. The output-inflation trade-off is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil commodity exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation which warrants fiscal reaction to crude oil revenue. This result is robust to several instruments satisfying the rule but with reduced efficiency for those instruments that impact potential output such as government investment and capital taxes. These rules are desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes but are unable to achieve the same degree of stability as when coordinated with inflation-targeting monetary policy. Even under optimal inflation-targeting regimes, the adoption of budget-balance tax-gap rules can produce reductions in macroeconomic volatility and welfare gains.     

Institutions,governance and incentives in common property regimes for African rangelands

The general distinctions between open access, state property, common property and private property are now well established in the academic literature. When applied to African rangelands, however, common property admits a wide variety of resource management regimes. To formulate effective policies it is necessary to understand the structure and operations of particular regimes. In this paper we discuss three examples of common property regimes, two from the southern African nation of Lesotho and one from the west African nation of Senegal, to illustrate some of the key characteristics of common property regimes. In particular, it is important to understand the structure of governance, the types of institutions that govern behavior, and the compatibility between governance, institutions and individual incentives. A common property regime can only be effective if its institutions are compatible with the structure of governance. The extent of its effectiveness also depends upon the incentives and expectations of individuals expected to enforce the rules of the institutions or comply with their terms. At present, most African governments lack the organizational capacity and political will necessary to implement state property regimes, official regulations on resource use, or individual property rights for rangelands resources. In many cases it is more appropriate for governments to define and enforce group rights to particular resources, then help to establish conditions in which internal group dynamics yield efficient resource management outcomes.     

Disinflation costs in China and monetary policy regimes

This paper investigates the real effects of a disinflationary policy in China, in which we conduct a disinflation experiment in a medium-scale New Keynesian model. We highlight two key features of China's economy: the relevance of money to monetary policy rules and household inequality. For the former, we consider two monetary policy regimes: an expanded Taylor rule with money and a money supply rule. For the latter, we take into account a share of the population that is limited in its ability to participate in assets markets. Our analysis suggests that a disinflation policy is more costly when the central bank controls the money supply than the case in which the nominal interest rate is the policy instrument. Our results are driven by the different impacts of disinflation on nominal and real interest rates under the two regimes.     

The economic effects of constitutions: do budget institutions make forms of government more alike?

According to an influential theoretical argument, presidential systems tend to present smaller governments relative to parliamentary countries because the separation between those who decide the size of the fiscal purse and those who allocate it creates incentives for lower public expenditures. In practice, however, presidential and parliamentary countries come in many forms. In particular, variation in procedural rules that assign budget prerogatives across the popular branches of government may affect the underlying incentives that differentiate these types of regimes in terms of fiscal outcomes. More specifically, we argue that more hierarchical rules that concentrate budgetary power in the executive relative to the legislature do not only reduce the extent of the common pool problem but also limit the degree of separation of powers, which may have a countervailing effect. Consequently, the effect of the form of government on public expenditures is conditional on specific procedural rules. We test this hypothesis on a broad cross-section of countries and find that presidentialism has a negative impact on government size only when executive discretion in the budget process is low (that is, in a context of separation of powers). However, the negative effect of presidentialism on expenditures vanishes when the executive’s discretion over the budget process is higher. This result, in addition to highlighting that not all budget institutions have the same effect on incentives and outcomes, points out how important it is to go beyond broad characterizations of political institutions for explaining policy outcomes, and more generally, for moving forward the research agenda in constitutional political economy.     

How Political Institutions Determine Corporate Governance Reforms: The Polity,Law and Corporate Practices in the Case of Switzerland

The aim of this article is to contribute to our understanding of the role that political institutions play in the reform processes of national corporate governance regimes. I argue that existing theories are limited in that they conceive of political institutions' impact on corporate governance largely in terms of a deterministic influence on the political coalitions that emerge and on the policy outcomes. Based on the analysis of the paradigmatic case of a consensual democracy – Switzerland – I show that the consensual polity does not directly determine the outcome of a reform process, but rather the direction of causality between legal changes and changes in practices as well as the nature of the changes. Consensual polities require large parliamentary majorities for legal change to happen. Therefore, corporate practices are likely to change before legal rules and less demanding forms of institutional change, such as ‘layering’, are favoured.     

Fiscal rules and extrinsic uncertainty

Summary This paper analyzes the effect of two fiscal policy regimes on the set of equilibria. A general equilibrium model with public goods is used to re-examine Friedman's [9] proposal for fiscal reform. The issue is whether a constraint upon fiscal policy requiring budget balance under all contingencies increases the stability of the economy. Stability is modelled in terms of neutralizing extrinsic uncertainty or sunspots. The government consists of bureaus providing public goods. The budgetary rules entail fixed shares of revenues and arrangements for budget balancing. Existence of equilibrium and properties of the equilibrium set are established. The Friedmanite rules permit extrinsic uncertainty to affect outcomes, while a policy that allows the bureaus greater discretion in the pursuit of their objectives neutralizes it.This paper is based on Goenka [11]. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Roger Guesnerie, Christophe Préchac, Bruce Smith, and Steve Spear for helpful comments. I would especially like to thank Karl Shell for many discussions and advice, and Michael Woodford whose detailed comments have sharpened the paper. This paper has benefitted from presentations at Buffalo, Cornell, VPI, CMU, LSE, and the 1991 European meetings of the Econometric Society. Research support from N.S.F. Grant SES-8606944 and the Center for Analytic Economics at Cornell University is gratefully acknowledged. All errors are mine.     

Voluntary Participation and Provision of Public Goods in Large Finite Economies

We consider a public good provision game with voluntary participation. Agents participating in the game provide a public good and pay the fees according to a mechanism (allocation rule), while nonparticipants can free‐ride on the participants. We examine how the equilibrium public good provision level is affected by enlarging the population of an economy. We introduce a condition for an allocation rule, the asymptotic uniform continuity in replication (AUCR), which requires that small changes in the population must yield only small changes in the public good provision and which is satisfied by many mechanisms. We show that under AUCR, the equilibrium level of the public good converges to zero as the economy is replicated in the sense of Milleron.     

和谐社会与我国公共预算资金利益博弈

无论何种政体,在公共预算中都有一定的资金分配方法,各种公共预算资金分配的不同方法的深层原因是不同利益主体在不同的政体要求下对公共预算资金合法博弈的结果,我国公共预算资金分配也不例外.本文从我国公共预算资金分配的现状出发,探讨了我国目前公共预算资金利益博弈的各种具体表现形式及今后需要改进的一些方面,以期在我国逐步建立和谐而文明的小康社会中,在公共预算资金的科学、合理、合法分配的制度化、民主化建设的过程中,提供一些参考依据.     

Competition and Public Service Obligations: Regulatory Rules and Industries Games

The introduction of competition in regulated industries may have positive or negative side-effects on the provision of collective goods or services. The paper shows that these effects are closely related to two associated elements: the industrial strategies developed by utilities and the regulatory environment within which they operate. Regulatory rules and corporate strategies influence the treatment of public service obligations. This raises a major issue regarding the regulation of public utilities. To reduce the drawbacks of the introduction of competition, it is necessary to set regulatory rules that allow the implementation of market configurations enabling public utilities to follow a public service orientation rather than a pure market-based approach.