Monotone imitation

We analyze the social learning process of a group of individuals who have limited information about the payoff distributions of each action. We say that a behavioral rule is first-order monotone (FOM) if the number of individuals who play actions with first-order stochastic dominant payoff distributions is expected to increase in any environment. We provide a characterization of FOM rules. Both Imitate if Better and Schlag’s (J Econ Theory 78:130–156, 1998) Proportional Imitation rule are FOM. No FOM rule is dominant in the sense of having the best performance in every environment.     

The consequences of an unknown debt target

Several proposals to reduce U.S. debt reveal large differences in their targets. We examine how an unknown debt target affects economic activity using a real business cycle model in which Bayesian households learn about a state-dependent debt target in an endogenous tax rule. Recent papers use stochastic volatility shocks to study fiscal uncertainty. In our setup, the fiscal rule is time-varying due to unknown changes in the debt target. Households infer the current debt target from a noisy tax rule and jointly estimate the transition probabilities. Three key findings emerge from our analysis: (1) limited information about the debt target amplifies the effect of tax shocks through changes in expected tax rates; (2) the welfare losses are an order of magnitude larger when both the debt target state and transition matrix are unknown than when only the debt target state is unknown to households; (3) an unknown debt target likely reduced the stimulative effect of the ARRA and uncertainty about the sunset provision in the Bush tax cuts may have slowed the recovery and led to welfare losses.     

Sharing information in Web communities

The paper investigates the formation of information sharing communities. The environment is characterized by the anonymity of the contributors and users, as on the Web. Furthermore information exchange is limited to simple recommendations. When preferences differ, it is argued that a community may be worth forming because it facilitates the interpretation and understanding of the posted information. The admission rule within a community, the quality of information, and the stability of multiple communities are examined.     

A Note on Compensation Schemes

In general, an economic reform wins unanimous support only if it incorporates a scheme of compensation.
It is widely believed that
(a) all lump-sum compensations: (i) have impractical information requirements about the technology of firms and the preferences of households, or (ii) are not manipulation-proof.
(b) Non-lumpsum compensations constitute feasible alternatives.
Further to the dissenting views of Kemp and Wan, this note makes two points: The first is that in a realistic model with overlapping generations, there is a lump-sum compensation scheme which is manipulation-proof . The second is that the presence of multiple equilibria may create havoc for a non-lumpsum compensation scheme. In real life, we have no information to rule out multiplicity.     

权威分配和信息传递

在成员间有利益冲突的情况下,授权是激励组织中成员释放其私人信息的一个重要方式.该文考察了在对多人授权时,权威分配的方式对于信息释放的影响.该文考虑了两种分配方案的影响.其一是所有的成员在形式上有同等的权威(委员会);其二是,某一个成员有全部的决策权威(科层制).委员会的决策规则虽然在形式上是平等的,但在实质上却可能偏向于某个成员.科层制则在形式上就完全偏向于它的领导.该文表明,权威的集中分配放大了利益冲突的影响.并且,权威分配的形式上的偏向有支配性的作用:它压倒了利益冲突以及实质偏向的影响.     

Human capital and the time-profile of human fertility revisited

This paper examines a model of the intertemporal distribution of births recently proposed by Cigno that concludes 1) the optimal time profile will satisfy the Hotelling rule of natural resources depletion, and 2) women with high initial endowments of human capital will have all their children early in married life while those with low initial endowments will spread childbearing more evenly over the fertile period. This paper argues that Cigno's model is inconsistent with the empirical evidence. Specifically, it is claimed that: 1) the natural resource analogy has been misapplied; 2) the stated 1st order conditions are incorrect; 3) optimal birth profiles do not satsify the Hotelling rule; and 4) the optimal time profile is for all women, regardless of their human capital, to concentrate births at the end of the fertile period. Since the discounted opportunity cost of a birth declines over time, it always pays to postpone a birth as long as possible. However, again, the theoretical prediction of delayed childbirth is not consistent with available evidence, suggesting that important factors have been omitted from this model.     

Pigouvian pricing and stochastic evolutionary implementation

We study the implementation of efficient behavior in settings with externalities. A planner would like to ensure that a group of agents make socially optimal choices, but he only has limited information about the agents’ preferences, and can only distinguish individual agents through the actions they choose. We describe the agents’ behavior using a stochastic evolutionary model, assuming that their choice probabilities are given by the logit choice rule. We prove that there is a simple price scheme with the following property: regardless of the realization of preferences, a group of agents subjected to the price scheme will spend the vast majority of time in the long run behaving efficiently. The price scheme defines a game that may possess multiple equilibria, but we are able to obtain a unique and efficient selection from this set because of the stochastic nature of the agents’ choice rule. We conclude by comparing the performance of our price scheme with that of VCG mechanisms.     

权威分配和信息传递

在成员间有利益冲突的情况下,授权是激励组织中成员释放其私人信息的一个重要方式。本文考察了在对多人授权时,权威分配的方式对于信息释放的影响。本文考虑了两种分配方案的影响。其一是所有的成员在形式上有同等的权威(委员会);其二是,某一个成员有全部的决策权威(科层制)。委员会的决策规则虽然在形式上是平等的,但在实质上却可能偏向于某个成员。科层制则在形式上就完全偏向于它的领导。本文表明,权威的集中分配放大了利益冲突的影响。并且,权威分配的形式上的偏向有支配性的作用:它压倒了利益冲突以及实质偏向的影响。     

Mechanism Design under Alternative Information Structures and Constrained Capacity

In applied models, the choice of a particular incomplete information structure appears to have been motivated primarily by technical convenience. The information structures used can be classified as either probabilistic or partitional. Information is probabilistic if no agent can rule out any type profile of the remaining agents and, for at least one type of one agent, the conditional and marginal probability distributions over the remaining agents' types are not equal. Information is partitional if the only information the agents have is that one or more agents (individually) can rule out type profiles of the remaining agents and, for at least one type of one agent, that agent has information about the remaining agents. Partitional information includes complete information as a special case. Existing results on complete information environments suggest that partitional information might simplify implementation problems. Within the context of an applied agency model in which capacity is constrained, we provide results that seem to challenge this intuition.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C72, D82.     

异质信念、投机均衡与农产品期货定价*

农产品期货市场套利并不充分,交易者也不是完全理性的。本文假设农产品期货市场有限套利、交易者异质信念并遵循“经验法则”预期,构建了农产品期货投机均衡定价模型,并认为集中竞价规则下产生的农产品期货价格是由交易者的预期决定的;前期期货价格水平、现货价格和前期期货价格的变动趋势、不同类型交易者的比例结构及其预期模式共同影响农产品期货价格的形成与波动;基本分析法交易者占主导地位的农产品期货市场具有更高的套期保值与价格发现效率。针对中国七种主要农产品期货的实证结果显示,农产品期货投机均衡定价模型对解释中国农产品期货价格的形成与波动是有效的。这意味着在期货行情系统中实时披露现货价格信息,培育和引导交易者运用基本分析法预测期货价格走势,有助于提升农产品期货市场的效率。     

A note on corporate taxation,limited liability,and asymmetric information

Becker and Fuest (this issue, p. 1–10) provides a new explanation for the link between limited liability and corporate taxation. The authors argue that a corporate tax on all entrepreneurs with limited liability is optimal when entrepreneurs can offset potential losses and when asymmetric information exists regarding projects’ qualities. This note considers a model with a slightly modified production technology. It confirms that entrepreneurs’ abilities to offset losses and the existence of asymmetric information may affect government policy. However, it also shows that the optimal taxation policy differs from that suggested by Becker and Fuest.      

On the convergence of reinforcement learning

This paper examines the convergence of payoffs and strategies in Erev and Roth's model of reinforcement learning. When all players use this rule it eliminates iteratively dominated strategies and in two-person constant-sum games average payoffs converge to the value of the game. Strategies converge in constant-sum games with unique equilibria if they are pure or if they are mixed and the game is 2×2. The long-run behaviour of the learning rule is governed by equations related to Maynard Smith's version of the replicator dynamic. Properties of the learning rule against general opponents are also studied.     

Oil market share dynamics: A Markov chain analysis of consumer and producer adjustments

We develop an “optimal market share rule” model of cartel behavior which when applied to the OPEC cartel appears capable of explaining its stability and responses to changed market events. In particular, by attaching importance to market shares based approximately on costs, OPEC members can by maintaining optimal shares deter deviant member attempts to break cartel rules. After a thorough discussion of the theory, the model is tested empirically using a Markov probability model. The estimated Markov transition matrix is further decomposed into what Theil has called the exchange matrix and the mean passage matrix. Dynamic adjustment processes in the market are revealed by the latter while an emerging pattern of OPEC member surveillance of consumers is revealed by the former which facilitates cartel stability. Inspection of these matrixes further suggests that after the formation of OPEC there is evidence of less potential for producer conflict while there appears more evidence for consumer conflict. While these results must be tentative in view of the fact that they have been estimated using a simplified two consumer — two producer model and limited data, it is argued that the results are highly suggestive and the approach in this study can be extended to cover all producer and consumers, and can be integrated into a complete model of the world oil market.     

Designing incentives for online question-and-answer forums

We provide a game-theoretic model of sequential information aggregation motivated by online question-and-answer forums. An asker posts a question and each user decides when to aggregate a unique piece of information with existing information. When the quality exceeds a certain threshold, the asker closes the question and allocates points to users. We consider the effect of different rules for allocating points on the equilibrium behavior. A best-answer rule provides a unique, efficient equilibrium in which all users respond in the first round, for substitutes valuations over information. However, the best-answer rule isolates the least efficient equilibrium for complements valuations. We demonstrate alternate scoring rules that provide an efficient equilibrium for distinct subclasses of complements valuations, and retain an efficient equilibrium for substitutes valuations. We introduce a reasonable set of axioms, and establish that no rule satisfying these axioms can achieve the efficient outcome in a unique equilibrium for all valuations.     

Property rights revisited

Over the last 20 years, a large number of papers have tried to quantify the effect of property rights on a wide range of variables like growth, trade and to a lesser extent, inequality. However, these studies have been inherently limited by measures of the security of property rights that are currently available. These suffer from any of a number of shortcomings, ranging from a lack of availability, objectivity, or the fact that they measure a broader concept like the rule of law. This paper tries to address this gap by proposing a new index of property rights. Specifically, we use a state-space model to combine all available indicators tracking the security of property rights into an index that covers 191 countries over the period 1994–2014. We compare it to the existing indicators by revisiting the link between inequality, democracy and property rights, using a panel threshold regression model with fixed-effects. Depending on the measure of property rights that is used, there can be considerable differences in the size, significance and even the sign of the estimated parameters. Specifically, in contrast with existing measures, we find that a strengthening of the security of property rights reduces inequality in highly democratic countries only via the government's redistribution channel.     

Production and financial policies under asymmetric information

We propose an extension of the standard general equilibrium model with production and incomplete markets to situations in which (i) private investors have limited information on the returns of specific assets, (ii) managers of firms have limited information on the preferences of individual shareholders. The extension is obtained by the assumption that firms are not traded directly but grouped into ‘sectorial’ funds. In our model the financial policy of the firm is not irrelevant. We establish the existence of equilibria and discuss the nature of the inefficiencies introduced by the presence of asymmetric information. We also illustrate the properties of the model in three simple examples. We would like to thank Alberto Bisin, Armando Dominioni, Piero Gottardi, Tito Pietra, Paolo Siconolfi, and an anonymous referee for useful suggestions and comments.     

Bargaining in committees as an extension of Nash's bargaining theory

This paper addresses the following issue: if a set of agents bargain on a set of feasible alternatives ‘in the shadow’ of a voting rule, that is, any agreement can be enforced if a ‘winning coalition’ supports it, what general agreements are likely to arise? In other words: what influence can the voting rule used to settle (possibly nonunanimous) agreements have on the outcome of consensus? We model the situation as an extension of the Nash bargaining problem in which an arbitrary voting rule replaces unanimity. In this setting a natural extension of Nash's solution is characterized.     

Adapting auctions for the provision of ecosystem services at the landscape scale

Auctions, or competitive tenders, can overcome information asymmetries to efficiently allocate limited funding for ecosystem services. Most auctions focus on ecosystem services on individual properties to maximise the total amount provided. However, for many services it is not just the total quantity but their location in the landscape relative to other sites that matters. For example, biodiversity conservation may be much more effective if conserved sites are connected. Adapting auctions to address ecosystem services at the landscape scale requires an auction mechanism which can promote coordination while maintaining competition. Multi-round auctions, in which bidding is spread over a number of rounds with information provided between rounds on the location of other bids in the landscape, offer an approach to cost effectively deliver landscape-scale ecosystem services. Experimental economic testing shows these auctions deliver the most cost effective environmental outcomes when the number of rounds is unknown in advance, which minimises rent-seeking behaviour. It also shows that a form of bid-improvement rule facilitates coordination and reduces rent seeking. Where the biophysical science is well developed, such auctions should be relatively straightforward to implement and participate in, and have the potential to provide significantly better outcomes than standard ‘one-shot’ tenders.     

中国近代股市监管的兴起与演变:1873-1949年

直观可以推测近代股市监管能力和效果都比较差,但是当时的真实情形究竟是怎样的呢?本文从监管机构的出现、股市监管立法、实际执法、政府对交易所的控制,以及市场危机处理这五个方面考察了这一阶段股市监管的特征与变迁。我们发现:在这70多年间,(1)各个时期的政府都能比较及时地移植外国的法律,纸面上的法律还是非常丰富、全面的,但是实际执法效果非常差;(2)专门的、中央集权的监管机构很快诞生,行政管理的力量在多层次监管体系中处于最重要的地位;(3)政府从来没有建立起完整而严格的信息披露制度,政府的有限力量被投放到了如何控制股市上,而不是提供公平的游戏规则。这种监管结构的成因或许可从一个“以毒攻毒”的制度三角形进行解释:随时可以剥夺企业财产的强势政府促成了企业在上市时藏匿各种重要信息的后果;上市公司信息披露不足又严重制约了监管执法的有效性;有效法治的缺失反过来又强化了政府的权力和对企业的任意掠夺。     

A simultaneous disequilibrium model for Italian export goods

An econometric methodology is proposed for simultaneously estimating a disequilibrium macroeconomic model which takes into account the interactions occurring between variables or equations when aggregate quantities come from markets which do not clear. A specification of disequilibrium is considered which is substantially a simultaneous version of the well known partial adjustment model, instead of taking into account the conventional “short-side” rule. A simple model for italian manufactured export goods is estimated with limited and full information techniques subject to cross equation restrictions which permit the identification of the structural parameters of the model. By investigating the extent to which these restrictions are supported by evidence, this approach is shown to be useful for the comprehension of how the italian export market for manufactured goods operates. Tests on equilibrium versus disequilibrium hypothesis seem to support such a specification for macro-disequilibrium.