转型中的日本对华直接投资

近10年来日本对华直接投资出现过两次高潮,中国已经成为日本最重要的投资对象国之一。制造业占到了日本对华投资的80%以上,运输机械、电机、机械、铁和有色金属、化学工业等5大产业是日本对华直接投资的主体。在中国经济周期变动、中日关系、日本国内经济形势和中国经济政策调整等因素的影响下,日本对华直接投资正处在新转折之中。今后一段时间内,日本对华直接投资额难以出现急剧的增长,但其结构将会进一步改善。     

The political economy of exchange rates: The case of the Japanese yen

This paper sets out a political economy model of strategic exchange rates, focusing on the importance of external pressures. In our approach, an exchange rate depreciation is shown to be analytically equivalent to an export subsidy and an import tax. Thus lobbying for exchange rate policy is akin to lobbying for trade policies. Applying our model to the recent history of the Japanese yen, we show that pressures from the US government can theoretically contribute to an appreciation of the Japanese yen. In addition, the yen will still appreciate even if we assume that the Japanese international firms are Aoki-type J-firms.     

日本企业管理变革与经济伦理承接背景分析

日本企业管理体现浓重的经济伦理特点,原因是多方面的。儒家思想与西方功利价值观的东西文化合壁奠定了日本企业管理的经济伦理基础;民族利益价值观为其经济伦理提供了政治保障：较深的本体论认识提供了日本企业经济伦理本质定位;Z理论是注重经济伦理范式的实践执行;历史经验是经济伦理对国民经济整体素质的价值体现。从经济伦理视角探研日本式企业管理,对中国企业管理水平的提升具有重要的理论及现实意义。     

The marginalist approach and the making of fuel policy in France and Britain, 1945–721

Focusing on the shift from coal to oil in the French and British economies between 1945 and 1972, this article analyses the influence of economists and economic concepts on fuel‐policy making in each economy. The framing of French fuel policy around marginalist principles from 1958 is examined, and the unusually direct influence of economists on policy making is ascribed to a mix of national security, industrial modernization, and political considerations.     

Cosmology and economics

Abstract

Economics has become the political magic of the twentieth century, and contention over economic policy is the political lifeblood of the modern state. The glare of publicity highlights the equilibrism of economic policy, leaving in the shade diplomacy and statecraft of former days. There is a consensus in modern society and in the modern state that political debate and economic discussion are two sides of the same coin, and that “economics”, like a second law of nature, sets the limits of the political options. Economic reform, economic adjustment, economic “rescue plans” and so on are synonyms for political strategies. Politics is the management of the “economy”, and at the same time “economics” is the authority to which all appeal as the “necessity”, as the authority that governs and legitimises policy.     

The Performance of Development Banks: The Case of the Reconstruction Finance Bank

This paper analyzes the performance of the Reconstruction Finance Bank (RFB) in order to shed light on the role of development banks in fostering economic growth. The RFB played a large role in Japan′s transition from war-time command economy to a market economy in the early post-war period. We use individual firm level data on sales, profits, and loans from the RFB, and find that, initially, the RFB was making loans to firms with below-average performance. We then find that this was partly a result of political interventions into the loan policy of the RFB. In fact, we also find evidence of improvements in the performance of the RFB after its loan policy became more independent. Implications for developing economies are also discussed. J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1995, 9(4), pp. 486-504. Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 13, Japan.     

2001～2006年日本量化宽松货币政策下汇率传递效应分析

日本经济长期陷入通货紧缩和日元升值而停滞不前,2001～2006年日本开创性地实施量化宽松货币政策以实现经济复苏。研究日本量化宽松货币政策下汇率传递效应问题,对于当前实践量化宽松货币政策的国家如何完善政策协调及提高政策效果有着重要的现实意义。本文基于日本月度数据展开实证,首先运用协整技术和VEC模型分非量化宽松货币政策和量化宽松货币政策两阶段来研究日元汇率传递效应的程度和变化趋势,再运用EG两步法和OLS来估算量化货币政策与国内物价之间的相关性。结果表明,量化宽松货币政策下日元汇率传递效应大大降低,这与货币当局致力于稳定通货膨胀水平密切相关。     

人民币国际化的发展目标与策略分析

伴随着中国一系列政策的出台,人民币国际化已经悄然启动.在当今的国际政治经济背景下,人民币国际化只能依靠中国经济与金融的强大,而高端货币是人民币国际化的终极目标.目前,人民币国际化还缺乏两个最重要的微观基础:中国外贸的自主优势与中资银行的广泛国际存在.稳步推进人民币国际化,需要做好以下几件事:短期内尽快出台人民币国际化的官方蓝图,中长期内稳步构架微观基础、促进宏观经济尤其是人民币币值的国内稳定.     

Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP–VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The parameters are allowed to follow a random walk process and estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The empirical result reveals the time-varying structure of the Japanese economy and monetary policy during the period from 1981 to 2008. The marginal likelihoods of the TVP–VAR model and other fixed parameter VAR models are estimated for model comparison. The estimated marginal likelihoods indicate that the TVP–VAR model best fits the Japanese economic data.     

The Politics of Indonesian Textile Policy: The Interests of Government Agencies and the Private Sector

This paper uses case studies of policy making in the Indonesian textile industry to illustrate the roles of variables neglected by the two principle theories of economic policy making, the dependency and state-centric approaches. These include political-cultural variables, intra-bureaucratic politics, and interaction between the bureaucracy and the private sector, the press and political leaders.     

Special Interest Groups and Trade Policy in the EU

The aim of this work is to employ theoretical and empirical analysis on the role of special interest groups in the determination of the EU trade policy. We build a two-stage game model of trade policy formation in a multisector-multicountry framework. We obtain the level of protection as a function of industry characteristics, in addition to political and economic factors at member state and European levels. The model is then tested by 2SLS estimation using data for 15 countries and 41 sectors. The econometric output suggests empirical support to model’s predictions as it highlights an important role for both national and European groups in trade policy making.      

山西省实施“以煤补农”机制的分析

从经济发展与资源环境生态矛盾突出的实际出发,建立“以煤补农”的政策机制,鼓励煤炭企业支持和参与所在地区的新农村建设成为必然趋势。本文将新农村建设中的“以煤补农”机制和“环境经济”紧密结合,分析了山西省煤炭煤业发展和农业发展的不协调性,提出实施“以煤补农”机制的基本思路。对山西省寻求一种社会的公平发展;增强农业基本资源和生产条件的可持续性;遵循环境一经济系统发展规律具有现实的意义。     

The New Roles of Japan in the Global Political Economy

Now that Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, her economic responsibility is the biggest ever. By examining the nature of the three revolutions in Japanese society since the Meiji Restoration, it is apparent that while the speed of economic structural change has been remarkably high, other aspects of the Japanese social framework have remained archaic and premodern.
After discussing the structural changes in the Japanese, Asian, and U.S. economies, this paper makes a case for structural changes in the Japanese political, bureaucratic, and diplomatic world. The new perspective to be suggested is (1) to change the system to utilize more of individuals' initiatives, less of the regulated, restrained, and group-shackled way of management, and (2) for Japan to take positive leadership in a new global political economy based on the principle of independent and equal partnership in the world for world peace and stability.     

Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

This is the first paper of a planned ‘Indonesia 2049’ project, which asks how far Indonesia's economy will have developed 100 years after actual political independence in 1949. We compare dimensions of Indonesia's economy with those of two oil exporters (Mexico and Nigeria), three large populous developing economies (China, India and Brazil) and three Southeast Asian neighbours (Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines). Under Soeharto, Indonesia's economic performance was better than it had been under Soekarno, and above the average of the eight comparator countries, but below that of the East Asian economies. Our view is that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second administration must adopt a new economic policy framework to ensure successful transition to knowledge-based growth. This proposed new framework goes beyond the Washington Consensus of ‘getting prices right’ and ‘getting institutions right’ to include ‘getting the role of science right’ and ‘getting the conception of the reform process right’.     

The evolving role of the central government in economic planning and policy making in Indonesia

This paper examines the changing role of the central government in the final years of the Soeharto era and since 1998. It argues that although economic policy making is now conducted in a very different political climate from that of the Soeharto period, there remains a powerful institutional legacy. In addition many old problems persist. The paper examines the evolving role of the national planning process and looks at the implications of the new law on national planning, especially for the division of labour between the national planning agency (Bappenas) and the Ministry of Finance. It also looks at some ongoing problems that are central to the economic policy process: the need for civil service reform and for a stronger audit process at all levels of government, and the issue of relations between the centre and the regions.     

The economic causes and consequences of social instability in China

This paper provides a survey of the economic literature relevant to social instability in China and moulds it into an argument. The objective is to offer a fresh view of economic policy and performance through the lens of the threat posed by social instability. This is a concept that economists rarely analyse, and yet it can lurk behind much economic policy-making. China's leadership has often publicly expressed its concern to avoid ‘social instability’. It is viewed as a threat both to the political order and to the continued rapid growth of the economy. This threat to growth in turn endangers the maintenance of social stability. The paper examines the likely economic determinants of social instability, using both surveys and other evidence. After discussing the determinants of China's rapid growth, the paper goes on to examine the likely mechanisms by which social instability can affect the growth rate. There is a case for more research on the role of social instability in the economic development process.     

Labour policy in the plantation islands

This article studies the evolution of labour policy in the context of the political economy of plantation islands. In order to analyse the relationship between labour policy and various institutional factors (social, political and economic), the author discusses the development of the plantation system — its origins based on slavery and indentures, and subsequent changes resulting from problems of cultural pluralism, labour productivity, falling world market prices, and a general process of economic modernization. He concludes with a discussion of the changes in industrial relations and government labour policy which emerged after the Second World War as a result of the changed constitutional status of the islands as well as the population explosion.     

要素投入、技术外溢与信息化的生产率效应

基于增长理论的分析框架,从要素投入和技术溢出两个角度出发,本文把信息化对经济增长的作用界定为增长效应和效率效应,继而探讨了两种效应对经济作用的机制与联系。在利用2001～2005年的面板数据进行经验分析后,本文发现,中国信息化发展对经济增长的作用是积极的,但是对于经济增长技术效率的影响并不明显;无论是作为要素投入的因素,还是作为效率影响因素,区域信息化的差异都能解释不同地区之间经济差距;相对于信息化要素投入的增长效应,信息化的技术外溢更能反映信息化在经济中的重要作用。本文的政策含义在于,推进信息化建设不仅要加强信息产业的发展,发挥信息产业在国民经济中的带动作用,而且重在发挥信息化在经济中的技术溢出和资源配置作用,以此来提升经济发展的质量。     

M. Hadi Soesastro: Indonesian public intellectual,Asia Pacific visionary

This note commemorates and celebrates the life and contribution of M. Hadi Soesastro, a Bulletin board member who passed away on 4 May 2010. Hadi was arguably Indonesia's leading public intellectual in the fields of international economic policy and political economy, ASEAN economic cooperation, and East Asian economic integration. He made seminal contributions in these fields, and on the political economy of reform in Indonesia, the economic development of East Timor, and energy economics. He also played a major role in institutional development, most notably at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, and in many other official, academic and research endeavours in Indonesia and East Asia.     

Effectiveness of history-dependent monetary policy

In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of history-dependent monetary policy, focusing on the design of targeting regimes and simple policy rules. Our quantitative analysis is based on a small estimated forward-looking model of the Japanese economy with a hybrid Phillips curve. Our main findings are: (1) History-dependent targeting regimes, such as price level targeting and income growth targeting, outperform inflation targeting; (2) Committing to a simple history-dependent policy rule results in nearly the same social welfare as the optimal delegation of price level targeting and income growth targeting; (3) The central bank can achieve almost the same performance as the optimal commitment policy by adopting the first difference hybrid policy rule in which the change in interest rate responds to inflation, output gap, and real income growth rate. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (3) (2004) 330–361.