Does China have Inflationary Effects on the USA and Japan？

With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan.     

Explaining inflation in the period of quantitative easing in Japan: Relative-price changes,aggregate demand,and monetary policy

Concentrating on the period of quantitative easing in Japan, this paper reexamines the correlation between the asymmetry of sectoral relative-price changes and the aggregate inflation rate. This correlation is widely interpreted as evidence that short-run inflation is determined by supply-side factors; however, we study whether, in addition to the inflation rate, monetary policy and aggregate demand explain it. Using producer price index data, we show, first, that the positive and significant effect of relative-price change asymmetries on inflation is not robust with respect to various indicators of asymmetry. Second, using a VAR framework, we find that aggregate demand robustly affects the measures of asymmetries, which raises doubt about whether they can be interpreted as pure supply-side indicators. Third, in addition to the indirect effect via measures of asymmetries, demand directly affects inflation. Thus, we reject the claim that the recent disinflation/deflation period in Japan can be understood as primarily a supply-side phenomenon and suggest that the main driving force was demand, whereas supply and monetary policy were of lesser importance.     

International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the “Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors” to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to 0% in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1% in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2% in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8% by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for a small portion, i.e., 5–10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchases, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore a vital Japanese economy.     

Efficiency Wages,Interfirm Comparison,and Unemployment

The paper presents an efficiency wage model where worker effort depends on own wages relative both to wages of other workers in the firm and to similar workers in other firms. First, we show how the Solow conditions are modified if internal comparison effects are at work. Second, we discuss the effect of internal wage comparison on wage inequality within firms. Third, we study unemployment and relative wage determination within a general equilibrium model, and analyze the effect of technological change and various tax policies on equilibrium unemployment and relative wages. Finally, the short-run effects of aggregate demand shocks are analyzed.     

US pressure on China: Silver flows, deflation, and the 1934 Shanghai credit crunch

US pressure for Chinese currency appreciation in the face of a weakening dollar was initially resisted in the post-2003 period. No such option was available in the 1930s, however, when dollar weakness was accompanied by silver purchases that automatically drove up the value of China's old silver-based currency. New empirical evidence suggests a significant link between the policy-induced driving up of US silver prices and Chinese exchange rate appreciation and price deflation. Moreover, the reversal of the silver flow into Shanghai as large-scale US purchases began in 1934 appears to have been met by a credit crunch in that city—as evidenced by bank failures, and real estate and stock market declines. The silver flow from the interior to Shanghai had previously insulated the financial center from the credit shortages faced elsewhere in China after deflation first emerged in 1932–1933.     

Productivity, efficiency, scale economies and technical change: A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures

This paper aims to examine the productivity change of the Japanese economy using the data pertaining to the 47 prefectures during the period 1981–2000. The decomposition analysis of the Hicks–Moorsteen–Bjurek productivity index is conducted to explore the sources of the productivity change. In summary, technical change and efficiency change are two of the most important components driving procyclical productivity. We find that relative their importance varies over periods. Supply shocks captured by technical change component caused upturns in productivity in the mid and late 1980s and in 1999 and 2000. Supply shocks also caused downturns in the early and mid 1990s. On the other hand, demand shocks captured by efficiency change component drove upturns of productivity in 1984, 1990 and 1996, when supply shocks were not detected. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 617–634.     

Inflation in developing Asia

Inflation emerged as the single biggest macroeconomic challenge confronting developing Asia during 2007–2008, although inflationary pressures have abated since the second half of 2008 due to the global crisis. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of different sources of inflation in developing Asia. In particular, it tests the widely held view that the region's inflationary surge during 2007–2008 was primarily the result of external price factors such as oil and food shocks. Our central empirical result is that, contrary to popular misconception, Asia's inflation is largely homegrown and has arisen due to excess aggregate demand and inflationary expectations, rather than external price shocks. This suggests monetary policy will remain a powerful tool in fighting inflation in Asia, as well as in defusing the risks of deflation.     

What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan’s output? A structural factor analysis of Japan’s industrial production

By applying the structural factor analysis developed by Foerster et al. (2011), we decompose the fluctuations of Japan’s industrial production (IP) into sectoral shocks and aggregate shocks, taking input–output relationships between sectors into account. Our results show that, except for the global financial crisis period, sectoral shocks explain, on an average, nearly half of the quarterly variations in Japan’s IP. Although the relative importance of sectoral shocks declined during the global financial crisis period, it increased again in the recent post-crisis period and, at this time, it contributes to the increased volatility of Japan’s IP. Specifically, our analysis suggests that the intersectoral spillovers brought about by disruptions of supply chain networks in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the declines in domestic production (or production capacity) in some sectors, as a result of a deterioration in global competitiveness, and a shift to overseas production have contributed to the recent increase in fluctuations of Japan’s IP.     

The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of energy (oil) on the growth and welfare of a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of energy price shocks depend upon the economy’s internal production structure and its access to the world financial market. We find that the effect on the long-run growth rate depends heavily on the former and is independent of the latter. The effect of accessibility to the world financial market on long-run welfare depends heavily on the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the energy price to the elasticity of substitution.     

Deflation,Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period

In this paper we examine the sources and impact of deflation on the growth experiences of the four dominant countries on the gold standard in the period 1880–1913: the United States, The United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation, (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard/Quah model which decomposes the behaviour of prices, output and the money stock into the impact of shocks such as a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, and domestic demand shocks including a shock to the domestic gold stock. Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that output was mainly supply driven and that money was neutral even when country specific gold stocks are included. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation.     

日元升值对日本进出口贸易的影响及其对我国的启示

20世纪70年代以来日元升值与日本对外贸易的关系表明:从短期看日元剧烈升值对日本对外贸易造成一定的冲击,但日本政府和企业采取相应措施缓解了日元升值对其带来的负面影响,即通过调整产业结构、加强科技创新、发展对外直接投资等措施来化解矛盾;从长期看日元升值并没有给日本对外贸易的增长造成实质性影响。研究日元升值与日本对外贸易间的关系,对同样面临人民币升值压力的我国具有重要的借鉴意义。     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

An empirical analysis of the unit labor cost-product price relation in the U.S. economy

This article tests for cointegration between unit labor costs and the level of product prices in four sectors of the U.S. economy: the aggregate business sector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, durable manufacturing, and nondurable manufacturing. A finding of cointegration for most specifications supports the existence of long-run labor market equilibrium for producers and suggests estimation of error-correction models to examine the dynamic relationships. In every sector except nondurable manufacturing, error-correction model estimates indicate there is a mutual feedback relationship between unit labor costs and prices. Controlling for deviations from full employment, oil price shocks, and the Nixon wage and price controls, the results also provide evidence of significant nominal wage indexation in U.S. labor markets. Throughout the economy there appears to exist both effective neoclassical wage and price adjustment mechanisms to maintain labor market equilibrium and short-run rigidities which may contribute to deviations from full employment outcomes.     

中印石油消费的动态影响因素比较分析

利用中国与印度1970-2009年的实证数据,运用VAR模型,Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型等方法,首次对两国的石油价格、经济增长、人口等因素与石油消费的长期关系及短期动态影响进行了比较分析。结果显示:长期中,石油价格与石油消费的弹性关系,印度表现为负,而在中国为正;经济增长对石油消费的影响,中国大于印度;人口对石油消费的影响,印度大于中国。短期中,印度的经济增长和人口对石油消费的影响更显著,石油价格对两国石油消费的影响程度相似。     

The ETS in China and Europe: dynamics,policy options and global sustainability perspectives

The Emission Trading Schemes of China and Europe show that China’s envisaged national ETS could bring a major contribution in the international approach against global warming; new perspectives on the use of composite sustainability indicators are also highlighted. China’s regional pilot schemes will converge to a (more) uniform price of emission allowances. As China is a major economic and political actor in the world economy, China’s progress with ETS is important. At the same time, China’s progress in the field of green international competitiveness – standing for a positive revealed comparative advantage in environmentally friendly goods – in the period 2000–2015 is considerable and the improved positioning of China in the EIIW-vita sustainability indicator shows considerable technological dynamics in Asia. The European ETS is working, but it suffers from the rather low price of emission allowances. The long-term time horizon of 2050 in the EU climate policy is rather ambitious and it is unclear whether or not a consistent G20 approach can be achieved – with the EU, China, Japan and the US cooperating amongst each other. There is a lack of a specialized climate stabilization institution in the world economy, the traditional anchoring of climate policy in the UN weakens the practical pressure for efficient cooperation since the UN is very heterogeneous in terms of per capita income and GHG emissions per unit of GDP; G20 might be an institution that is suitable for effective policy cooperation. More initiatives in the field of recycling could be useful.     

Has Greater Competition Restrained U.S. Inflation?

This paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy. By raising the price elasticity of demand, increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks. We find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short-run Phillips curve models of core inflation. Evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short-run, expectations-augmented Phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).     

A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy

This study investigated whether global oil price changes, exchange rate, interest rate, and economic output exert symmetric or asymmetric pass-through effects on inflation in the Philippines. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was fitted to the observable data using quarterly observations from 1998 to 2019. Knowledge of these relationships is important in monetary policy setting in achieving targeted inflation; the Philippines adopted inflation targeting in 2002. The finding shows that world oil price shocks are still prominent and the most important determinants of inflation variations in the country. There is prima facie evidence on the short-run asymmetry of oil price changes to inflation. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation was very minimal in the short-run, and there is no long-run effect. Evidence that interest rate and demand shocks have a long-run asymmetric effect on inflation was found. These findings imply that monetary policy setting should account for the asymmetric effects of inflation determinants. Study results provide a deeper understanding of how positive and negative changes of inflation determinants affect actual inflation, which aids policymakers in achieving targeted inflation.