Interventions and Japanese economic recovery

This paper attempts to explain possible reasons and objectives behind the 35 trillion yen (7% of GDP) interventions conducted by the Japanese monetary authorities from January 2003 to March 2004, and to discuss whether the interventions achieved the presumed objectives: making the movement of the yen flexible but orderly, and helping economic recovery. The motivation of starting intervention in January 2003 was to keep the yen from appreciating in the midst of financial and macroeconomic weakness. The economy started to show some strength in the second half of 2003, but interventions continued, with a brief pause in September. Reasons for interventions after September are twofold. First, the interventions provided opportunities for unsterilized interventions. Second, the monetary authorities were extremely sensitive to speculative activities in the market.     

好消息和坏消息

新年伊始,从铁道部传来了一个好消息和一个坏消息。好消息是今年春运铁路客票价格不上浮。坏消息是铁道部新闻发言人称:铁路要因此多承担近3亿元成本。好消息好在哪里不必多说,“铁老大”终于开始参与构建和谐社会了,虽然或许是被迫的;所谓坏消息,并非是同情铁路要因春运赔大本,而是“铁老大”仍未端正姿态,做了件分内的好事之后,却非要以“哭穷”的方式获取怜悯。     

Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data

The Japanese economy has experienced price deflation since the mid-1990s. Despite the importance of overcoming deflation, there has been little recent research on price expectations in Japan. This paper takes advantage of an original and rich quarterly household-level data set from the “Kokumin Seikatsu Monitors” to estimate average price expectations, examine the factors that affect price expectations, and examine how changes in price expectations have affected household consumption. Our estimates indicate that average price expectations ranged from minus 0.2 to 0% in 2001 and 2002. However, there was an increase to 1% in the first quarter of 2003, followed by a decline to 0.2% in the second quarter, and a steady increase toward 0.8% by the first quarter of 2004. Price expectations depend on current price movements and lagged expectations. A series of quantitative easing monetary policies were not very effective in changing the price expectations, since the policy announcements caused revision of price expectations only for a small portion, i.e., 5–10% of people surveyed. The jump observed in the first quarter of 2003 was a reaction to the outbreak of the Iraq war. Our study also confirms that deflationary expectations discourage household consumption, mainly durable consumption, by delaying the timing of purchases, suggesting that the deflationary expectations should be upwardly revised to restore a vital Japanese economy.     

美国经济复苏强劲

美国总统奥巴马自信满满地告诉民众,在过去的46个月中,私营企业已经增加820万个就业机会,2014年将是美国经济实现突破进展的一年。从2008年的哀鸿遍野,到2013年的经济增速明显,此轮美国经济复苏的时间显得非常漫长,已经超过50个月,     

抵制日货问题的政治经济学思考

从抵制日货的原因、利弊和困境方面看,抵制日货不能走形而上学“非此即彼”的极端,只能是“有理、有利、有节和有度”的有限抵制,而且要刚柔相济有张有弛,并突出对日交流和中日友好的善意。就事论事抵制“问题日货”,合情合理合法,但要光明磊落理直气壮且减少其负效应,则需倡导“民意”嬗变:支持国货,抵制劣货。     

日资企业内沟通不畅的问题及对策分析

某知名的日资电子企业由于不重视本土人才的培养,中日双方员工在背景和工作理念上的巨大差异,以及语言不通等原因造成了沟通中的障碍.解决这一问题的对策是:高层领导要意识到内部沟通的重要性;重视对本土人才的培养;认清中日两国员工在文化和工作理念上的差异;加强语言学习.     

Japanese episodic long swings in economic growth

Prior to World War II Japanese economic growth was characterised by episodic ‘long swings,’ low frequency fluctuations in economic growth averaging about 20-25 years in duration. At the aggregate level, these inter-period growth variations dominated both shorter-term fluctuations and longer-term trend acceleration. The paper describes the long swings of the Japanese economy and re-evaluates conventional explanations.     

The industry origins of Japanese economic growth

This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the Japanese economy over the period 1960–2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of computers, communications equipment, and electronic components as information technology equipment. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments and productivity growth in information technology, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that the revival of total factor productivity growth accounts for the modest resurgence of the Japanese economy since 1995. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 482–542.     

Housing sector as an important factor of economic recovery and formation of medium-term economic dynamics

Motives of reduction of credit financing sources for housing construction under conditions of financial and economic crisis are analyzed in the paper, and a set of centralized measures for attracting investments to this sphere for restoration of volumes of housing starts is proposed.     

The Indonesian economic crisis and the long road to recovery

This article provides a concise overview of the origins and impact of the 1997–1998 crisis on the Indonesian economy and the tardy process of recovery since. It is pessimistic about the current prospects for speedy recovery due to the inability of the politically weak governments, which succeeded the highly authoritarian Soeharto regime, to take the necessary steps needed to achieve full economic recovery. The article briefly compares this crisis with the economic crises that hit Indonesia during the early 1930s and mid-1960s, and points to similarities as well as differences.     

Measuring economic localization: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data

This paper examines location patterns of Japan’s manufacturing industries using a unique firm-level dataset on the geographic location of firms. Following the point-pattern approach proposed by Duranton and Overman (2005), we find the following. First, about half of Japan’s manufacturing industries can be classified as localized and the number of localized industries is largest for a distance level of 40 km or less. Second, several industries in the textile mill products sector are among the most localized, which is similar to findings for the UK, suggesting that there exist common factors across countries determining the concentration of industrial activities. Third, the distribution of distances between entrant (exiting) firms and remaining firms is, in most industries, not significantly different from a random distribution. These results suggest that most industries in Japan neither become more localized nor more dispersed over time and are in line with similar findings by Duranton and Overman (2008) for the UK. Fourth, a comparison with the service sector indicates that the share of localized industries is higher in manufacturing than in services, although the extent of localization among the most localized manufacturing industries is smaller than that among the most localized service industries, including financial service industries.     

调动学生积极性上好日语笔译课

日语笔译课是日语教学中一门重要课程。一部分学生只重视精读课,认为笔译课只是一种补充,不很看重。改进这种状况可以通过向学生讲解笔译重要意义,引入认知心理学方法等手段。可以采用分组课堂讨论,以小组为单位完成作业、支持学生学习、提高教师教学水平等达到目的。     

Estimate of the demand for financial resources for the economic growth recovery

The paper considers the quantitative scope of the monetary policy that provides the demand of the economy for working capital during the return to economic growth. Directions of monetary and fiscal policies in times of crisis have been substantiated.     

对我国政府应对通货紧缩政策的分析与建议

通货紧缩已对我国经济造成了十分严重的影响，虽然我国已度过了通货紧缩最严重的时期，但随着中国经济亮点增多和加人WTO对中国经济的影响，相信对此做一个回顾是有必要且有意义的。宏观调控的两个重要手段是财政政策和货币政策，当经济运行处于物价下跌、失业增加、经济衰退的状态下，使用何种政策手段或两种才能取得更大的效果，是我们探讨的目的。