东亚金融一体化程度与福利收益的实证研究

本文利用1970-2004年东亚国家和地区的相关数据,分析了以消费风险分担来衡量的东亚地区金融一体化的程度,以及东亚地区在实现完全风险分担后带来的潜在的福利收益.相比OECD国家和欧盟国家,东亚国家和地区风险分担的福利收益是比较高的,因此可以得出东亚国家和地区金融市场一体化应进一步深化,但在开放金融的同时应加强银行和金融市场监管的合作,以促进人民福利水平的提高的结论.     

金融发展与中国跨省消费风险分担

本文利用中国1978—2008年间的省级数据,考察金融发展对消费风险分担程度的影响,结果发现风险分担程度随时间显著变化。在1978-1992年时间段上,金融深化提高了消费的风险分担程度,而信贷市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显。在1993-2002年时间段上,信贷市场发展提高了消费的风险分担程度,而金融深化降低了消费的风险分担程度。在2003-2008年时间段上,金融深化对消费的风险分担程度的影响并不明显,只有微弱的证据表明,信贷市场发展在该阶段提高了各省人均居民消费的风险分担程度。而证券市场发展对消费的风险分担程度的影响一直不明显。     

中国消费风险分担偏低之谜

居民部门福利水平,不仅决定于收入与消费的绝对水平,也取决于其波动水平即风险程度。通过金融市场和财政转移支付而实现的收入的交换流通,以降低本地消费与本地产出的相关性分担本地产出波动导致的居民消费的风险。本文计算了1985—2011年中国消费风险分担的趋势,发现中国省级消费风险分担水平偏低而且增加趋势不明显。进一步的研究结果表明,政府为了增加财政收入而采取的地方保护行为,严重抑制了财政转移支付和银行信贷市场在分担消费风险中的作用,直接造成了中国较低的消费风险分担水平。而金融业的国有化,则没有呈现出类似的影响。本文的结论对中国未来统筹区域经济发展和金融业市场化改革有重要的启示意义。     

基于消费风险分担模型的中国——东盟金融合作程度的实证分析

自中国-东盟自由贸易区建成以来,中国与东盟的经贸联系日益加强,金融合作也取得了实质性的进展。本文运用衡量金融合作程度的主要方法——消费风险分担模型,对中国与东盟国家1999年-2010年的相关数据进行实证分析,得出中国与东盟金融合作程度较低,尤其是资本市场一体化程度尚处于初级阶段的结论,并对其成因进行解析,以期能够为进一步加强彼此合作提供参考。     

对福利消费倾向的思考

福利这一物质刺激的代名词,曾有一段使人心有余悸的历史。它在经受了20几年的冷落之后,却伴随着改革开放,重新在中国“走红”,而且逐步形成了一股难以遏止的“福利热”。“福利热”究竟给改革注入了什么?很值得我们认真思考。 思考之一:由于长期左的失误,福利消费几乎沦为“禁区”,改革开放的春风恢复了福利在经济生活中的地位,使其在调动企业和劳动者积极性,推进四化建设中,发挥了积极作用。但是,福利消费作为对劳动成果的分     

风险投资中的企业家能力分析和风险分担

我国政府提出发展风险投资的“一号提案”以后 ,已经为发展自己的风险投资事业从产业、法规和经济金融环境上作了各种准备 ,以迎接新世纪高科技产业的迅猛发展。国内的学者从理论上讨论了我国经济大环境的缺陷 ,吸收了国外多年来发展该项事业的经验教训 ,但上述研究大多数集中于体制方面和技术方面 ,各类研究大都忽视了很重要的问题 ,即风险投资中风险企业家 (事业开拓者 )的个人能力对促成风险投资家对企业成功投资起到什么作用 ,以及企业家和投资家在合作过程中的风险应该如何减小和避免。本文将借鉴前人的研究结果对这两个问题进行深入的…     

风险投资的风险结构及分担机制研究

系统化分析了风险投资的风险构成,指出风险投资的风险系由环境风险、投资风险、主体风险三个维度构成。进而探讨了风险投资的分担机制,认为通过引进政府部门、保险机构、风险投资互助协会、孵化器等不同主体,有助于充分分担风险投资风险,减少风险投资主体因为项目投资失败所带来的经济损失,进而充分发挥风险投资对于高新技术产业的重要推动作用。     

分税制、转移支付与地区风险分担

本文分析了中国地区间风险分担的程度以及财政制度如何影响地区间的风险分担水平.根据消费平滑和风险分担的实证模型,本研究得到如下结论:各地区间的风险分担程度尚显不足,各地区仅能把消费变动的一小部分进行平滑;分税制以及中央-地方间的转移支付制度使地区间的风险分担程度有所下降,这意味着目前的财税体系在实际上没有能够很好的平滑地区的收入变动.     

Banks,Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.     

论东亚地区社会信任与经济增长的正相关效应

越来越多的研究表明社会信任是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。不过一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度的社会。但WSV的调查数据证明不仅华人社会，而且整个东亚地区中那些在近40年经历了快速增长的经济体中都有非常高的信任度，这种信任也是这一地区经济增长的源泉。     

Impact of Regional Economic Integration in East Asia

The current study evaluates the economy wide impact of trade liberalization in the ASEAN region along with China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN + 3) by the year 2020 using the GTAP framework. The study also assesses the environmental impact of the trade liberalization in the region focusing on the seven environmental indicators (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, BOD, COD, Suspended Solid and Industrial Waste). The result shows that the countries under agreement (ASEAN + 3) will benefit with increased output, expansion of trade and welfare due to trade reforms. Further, the integration will increase the global welfare, although the regions not under agreement in the world will show a decline in output growth. Vietnam will be gaining with the highest output growth among the ASEAN region; however, the impact on the environment would not be favourable. The environmental impact reveals a mixed outcome for participating countries under the agreement. The paper provides useful insight in pursuing greater trade liberalization among the countries under the study.     

心理会计、公共福利保障与居民消费

消费需求不足是我国经济快速增长过程中的一个突出问题。考虑到经典理论的局限性,我们提出了基于心理会计的消费行为假说,并对假说的真实性进行了验证。研究发现,居民心理会计账户结构的变化是当前制约我国消费需求增长的根本原因,而改革进程中出现的一些制度结构的失衡是问题的根源。据此我们指出,通过提高公共福利和社会保障水平,降低经济发展过程中的不确定性进而调整居民心理会计账户的结构,与单纯增加居民收入相比能够更加有效地促进消费的增长。     

OCA Issue in East Asia under the Pressure of Chinese RMB Appreciation

As the rumor that RMB will appreciate in the near future, most Asian currencies had appreciated according to this matter since the appreciation of Chinese RMB will strengthen the exports of those Asian counties, thus appreciate the currencies of those countries. An OCA matter here comes again to the Asian countries. As we all know, Euro has been formally used among European areas since 1999, and this is the fir.st time that the optimum currency system was adopted in the international history. Asia, as another area that has most development potentiality in the world, should it adopt the monetary integration process as well？ In this paper the necessary conditions to form an OCA are analyzed; European experience are conjured with the own feature of East Asia areas; possibilities of forming the OCA in East Asia are concluded as well as the resistances; besides the potential process of forming an OCA is suggested.     

当前东亚国际体系转型的特点及趋势

东亚国际体系在冷战结束前曾经历过朝贡体系、殖民体系和两极体系三次大的转型过程．这个体系演进的历史轨迹为现今东亚国际体系转型留下了众多的历史遗产,并最终形成当前东亚国际体系转型的独特之点,表现为中国作为新兴国家与地区各种力量之间关系的持续调整．美国作为区域外国家在东亚地区影响力的持续存在,区域经济整合与权力结构调整对东亚国际体系的共同塑造,东亚在体系转型过程中稳定性与对抗性的持续并存等,在这些特征基础上,东亚国际体系转型的趋势可以概括为三个主要方面,即“两国关系的调整,两种体系的博弈,一个共识的构建”。也就是中关关系将是东亚国际体系转型的主线,以经济来塑造政治将是体系转型的重要方式．利益协调与共识的建立将是努力的主要方向。     

Role of government in trade and investment boom: lessons from East Asia

This paper extends the empirical analysis on Rodrik’s (1995a) domestic investment‐led export growth model for East Asia to nine East Asian countries for a longer time period, 1960 through 2004, and tests whether openness Granger‐caused investment or vice versa. Our results suggest that there can be no single conclusion about the role of investment in East Asia. Causality has also changed for some countries in different time periods. We question the exogeneity of the investment boom in East Asia, a key assumption made by Rodrik. Government’s incentives encouraged investment in export industries through different channels.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South‐East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies.     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?