城镇有效就业影响因素研究——基于广东省1978—2005年的实证

广东省城镇就业量决定模型的定量估计结果表明,资本投入和实际工资是引起广东省城镇有效就业人数增加的两大主要因素。资本投入有利于就业人数的增加,而实际工资上涨对就业人数增加有抑制作用;市场化程度提高对广东省城镇有效就业影响不显著,但会有正作用;保持工资的适当增长幅度是促进就业的有效手段。     

An Equilibrium Theory of Wage and Employment Cyclicality by Gender and by Industry

This paper presents an equilibrium theory that accounts for how cyclical patterns of employment and real wages vary between genders and across industries. Workers' self-selection of industrial sectors, gender differences in comparative advantage among sectors, sector-nonneutral shocks, and resulting mobility of workers across sectors play the key roles in explaining wage and employment cyclicality by gender and by industry. Numerical simulations demonstrate that reasonable parameter values exist under which the current model accords with several stylized facts. These parameter values are characterized most importantly by men's comparative advantage in the sector subject to larger cyclical demand shocks.     

影响中国就业弹性的因素分析

文章由修改后的柯布道格拉斯生产函数推导出劳动力需求方程,找到影响就业弹性的因素:资本存量、实际工资、技术因素和市场化程度;并将这些因素与就业量进行了实证分析.结果表明:劳动需求量、资本存量、职工工资、技术因素和市场化程度之间具有协整关系;资本投入的增加对就业量的带动作用不显著;技术因素虽然短期对就业有挤出效应,但其增长效应大于挤出效应;非国有经济和第三产业具有较高吸收就业的能力,非国有经济和第三产业的发展是缓解我国当前就业形势的重要途径.     

Monetary and fiscal policy in interdependent two-sector economies

Summary This paper considers a two-country-two-sector world with tradables and non-tradables, floating exchange rates, perfect capital mobility and sluggish labour markets. The model assumes either nominal or real wage rigidity and either perfect or imperfect substitution between home and foreign-produced tradables. The effects and spillover effects of fiscal and monetary shocks are compared with the standard results from well-known macroeconomic two-country counterparts of the model. The purpose is to establish the degree of robustness of the latter with respect to disaggregation and to gain insight into the sectoral transmissions of the shocks.The authors wish to thank Lans Bovenberg, Theo van de Klundert, Christian Mulder, Frederick van der Ploeg, Martin van Tuijl, Leo van Veldhuizen and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

The link between output and contracts under hyperinflation

In the conventional Keynesian model, nominal wage contracts (acting as a friction) transmit monetary shocks to real variables. In contrast, the new classical or real business cycle theory claims that firms and workers ignore the behavior of the actual real wage and instead generate an efficient level of employment (hence, output) based on a shadow real wage. Using Brazilian data covering a period during which the economy suffered hyperinflation and wage contracts were indexed by the government, results show that these fixed nominal wage contracts did not generate a nonneutrality of money as proposed by the Keynesian model. Instead, results support the view that contracts cannot propagate nominal shocks.     

Nominal Wage Contracts, Adjustment Costs and Real Persistence of Monetary Shocks

This paper describes a model in which monetary shocks have persistent real effects. Starting from the limited participation model of Christiano (1991) with capital adjustment costs as suggested by Dow (1995) it is confirmed that costs of equipment installation and restrictions on consumer portfolio choices alone cannot account for the observed effects of monetary policy. However, after introducing nominal wage contracts as a third friction, the model generates real effects of monetary shocks. It is shown that these real effects are highly persistent for a realistic size of adjustment costs and strongly autocorrelated money growth shocks which are typical for Europe.     

Trade, capital mobility, and the German labour market

Trade, Capital Mobility, and the German Labour Market. — This paper sets up three structural variants of a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with three sectors (exportables, importables, non-tradables) and three factors (internationally mobile capital and immobile skilled and unskilled labour) in order to analyse the employment and wage effects of globalisation shocks. The model is numerically implemented for West Germany in 1980 on the base of input-output tables and employment data from a random sample of social security accounts. Overall this study indicates that the globalisation process does not have strong effects on unemployment and/or the wage differential in West Germany.     

Wage setting and tax progressivity in dynamic general equilibrium

This paper concerns the implications of progressive labor incometaxation for wage determination in dynamic general equilibrium.The main purpose is to analyze the general equilibrium effectsof increased tax progressivity in terms of the responses inthe real wage rate, employment, the capital stock, output andconsumption. Among the results, we find that increased tax progressivityincreases the real wage rate and decreases employment underboth union and competitive wage formation.     

Macroeconomics of Agricultural Trade Liberalization

Abstract

In this article a macroeconomic model is built to examine interactions between the agricultural sector and the industrial sector in an emerging market economy. This article examines how monetary shock and real shocks produce agricultural price fluctuations and change in employment through multiple cross effects. Monetary shocks result in overshooting of primary commodity price while real shock in terms of rise in the production of primary commodity mitigates the volatility of primary price.     

The saving–investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks

This paper shows how savings and investment can be positively correlated despite capital being perfectly mobile across countries. The saving-investment (SI) correlation depends on the origin and the volatility of macroeconomic (productivity) shocks, the persistence of these shocks and country-size. Simulating a two-country Real Business Cycle (RBC) model we show that as the variance of common shocks increases (relative to country-specific shocks), as the persistence of these shocks decreases and as country-size increases, the SI correlation increases. Using annual data from 1960 to 2002, productivity changes in 11 OECD countries are decomposed into common and country-specific shocks (from which foreign shocks are also constructed). The empirical findings show that the 11 countries share a statistically significant common component in productivity changes and common shocks generally account for at least half of the variations in the countries’ productivity changes. We then use the estimated variances of the shocks, in addition to each country's size, in the RBC model to compute the predicted SI correlation for each country, under the assumption that capital is perfectly mobile. The predicted SI correlation is then compared to the actual correlation to assess the relative degree of capital mobility in the 11 countries. The findings indicate that Norway, the Netherlands and the US have the highest degree of capital mobility whereas in Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Japan capital mobility has been the lowest.     

贸易自由化对中国工业就业与工资波动性的影响

本文从贸易自由化与中国就业与工资波动性的关系这一新的视角分析了贸易自由化对我国劳动力市场的影响。研究首先在弹性分析框架之下,对贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响进行了模拟分析。然后采用我国细分工业行业的数据,在估算全要素生产率的基础上,使用回归分析方法进一步考察了贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响。研究的基本结论是,贸易自由化很可能增强了给定外生劳动需求冲击之下工业劳动者工资和就业的波动性。     

Home-product bias, capital mobility, and macroeconomic volatility

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizingmodel to analyse the consequences of international capital mobilityfor macroeconomic volatility. To this end, the dynamic macroeconomiceffects of a monetary policy, a fiscal policy, and a labor supplyshock are analysed. Simulations are used to analyse the implicationsof changes in the degree of capital mobility for the propagationof shocks. The simulation results obtained for a bond economyare compared with the simulation results obtained for a complete-marketeconomy. It is shown that allowing for a home-product bias inpreferences has a number of interesting implications for theway changes in international capital mobility and in the structureof international financial markets affect how shocks propagatethrough an open economy.     

Openness, Technological Change and Labour Demand in Pre-Crisis Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of export orientation, import competition, foreign ownership and the rate of capital accumulation on the relative demand for skilled and unskilled labour in pre-crisis Indonesia. Estimates from an interrelated factor demand analysis indicate that openness and foreign ownership, by themselves, acted to raise the relative demand for unskilled workers in the pre-crisis period, while the newness of capital was associated with increased relative demand for skilled workers. Overall, the relative demand for unskilled workers increased yet their relative wage position weakened. These contrasting relative employment and wage changes are consistent with the examined demand shocks and the greater elasticity of supply of Indonesian unskilled relative to skilled labour.     

技术创新对中国就业影响的实证研究

技术创新对就业来说有利有弊。文章阐述了技术创新对就业的破坏机制和创造机制,通过实证研究发现,30多年的技术创新对我国就业总量的综合影响为负。这主要是因为我国劳动力素质与高技术的不匹配以及劳动力流动性差而造成的结构性失业严重,且由于我国产品创新不足、工资刚性、劳动资本市场不完善等原因,使得技术创新的就业补偿机制发挥不充分。文章在此基础上提出了可行建议。     

Symmetric and asymmetric persistence of labor market shocks

Within the insider-outsider paradigm, this paper examines persistence of shocks in the labor market. We distinguish “symmetric persistence” where the extent of persistence is independent of the initial direction of the shock, and “asymmetric persistence” where beneficial and adverse shocks of equal magnitude have effects of different size. The paper offers a theoretical rationale for how the symmetry or asymmetry may depend on the extent to which the shock was anticipated in wage setting and then develops a framework in which the possibility of asymmetric persistence can be tested empirically. Using annual UK data, we obtain empirical evidence of significant asymmetry in the response of employment (and wages) to shocks. Small beneficial shocks are reflected entirely in wage increases, although sufficiently large favorable shocks also elicit increases in employment. In contrast, adverse shocks lead to reductions in both wages and employment. Evidence from Japan and West Germany provides some evidence of the presence of asymmetry, although this is less marked than in the United Kingdom. The policy implications are discussed.     

Variation in the Effects of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Evidence and Implications across Industrial Countries

Over a sample of nineteen industrial countries, more variable aggregate demand and/or higher mean inflation attenuates (augments) the effect of aggregate demand shocks on real output growth (wage and price inflation) while having no effect on the response of the real wage to such shocks. In all countries examined, aggregate demand shocks are positively (negatively) correlated with nominal variables (real output). Among explanations of the business cycle based on shocks to aggregate demand, this evidence favors the new Keynesian sticky wage explanation over the sticky price and the new classical imperfect information explanations.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Incomplete Asset Markets on the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate

I develop a two-country New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and incomplete international asset markets that provides novel insights on the effect that imperfect international risk-sharing has on international business cycles and RER dynamics. I find that business cycles appear similar whether international asset markets are complete or not when driven by a combination of non-persistent monetary shocks and persistent productivity (TFP) shocks. In turn, international asset market incompleteness has sizeable effects if (persistent) investment-specific technology (IST) shocks are a main driver of business cycles. I also show that the model with incomplete international asset markets can approximate the RER volatility and persistence observed in the data, for instance, if IST shocks are near-unit-root. Hence, I conclude that the nature of shocks, the extent of financial integration across countries and the existing limitations on asset trading are central to understand the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the endogenous international transmission over the business cycles.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange rate stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to asymmetric real shocks and increases the probability of speculative capital inflows and overheating. In contrast, exchange rate stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively as transactions costs for international trade decline, uncertainty for international capital flows is less and macroeconomic stability is enhanced. Cross country panel estimations provide evidence for a negative impact of the exchange rate volatility on growth in both Emerging Europe and East Asia. Parts of this negative growth effect can be associated with exchange rate volatility caused by macroeconomic instability.     

The effects of a tax and incomes policy on government finance,employment and capital formation

Summary A tax and incomes policy is proposed to alleviate the problem of unemployment. Income taxes and wages are simultaneously reduced to leave the post-tax real wage unaffected. This will stimulate employment, but may lead to a never-ending expansion of government debt unless there is a shift from bond-finance to money-finance. The main disadvantage of this scheme is that money-finance is more inflationary, but this may not matter as the net real wage is unchanged. However, when allowance is made for the role of capital formation, the inflationary consequences of money-finance will stimulate investment and contribute to a further expansion of activity and employment. The effects of two other reflationary packages are also investigated.The author thanks Rob Alessie and Lex Meydam for some helpful discussions, which suggested the topic of the paper. The author also thanks Professors Theo van de Klundert and S. K. Kuipers for their many constructive and helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

Unemployment and the real wage gap: A reappraisal of the German experience

Unemployment and the Real Wage Gap: A Reappraisal of the German Experience.- The major European economies experienced a rise in unemployment since the late 1970s. At the same time, the real wage gap, a widely used measure of wage pressure, declined. This paper develops an analytical framework that relates the two phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the interaction of capital accumulation, wage setting and labour demand. The model is applied to the particular case of Ger-many and found to be consistent with the observed behaviour of wages, investment, output and employment.