Capital mobility and EU enlargement

Capital Mobility and EU Enlargement. — The membership of the Eastern European transition economies in the EU would require inter alia the full liberalization of their capital flows. Using the correlation between domestic saving and investment, this paper provides empirical evidence of the openness with respect to foreign capital that the accession states have attained so far. A comparison with the southern members of the EU shows that the countries under review have reached a similar degree of integration in quantitative terms. Yet, further adjustment in qualitative terms, i.e., in the structure of capital flows, can be expected as the process of accession proceeds.     

Home-product bias, capital mobility, and macroeconomic volatility

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium two-country optimizingmodel to analyse the consequences of international capital mobilityfor macroeconomic volatility. To this end, the dynamic macroeconomiceffects of a monetary policy, a fiscal policy, and a labor supplyshock are analysed. Simulations are used to analyse the implicationsof changes in the degree of capital mobility for the propagationof shocks. The simulation results obtained for a bond economyare compared with the simulation results obtained for a complete-marketeconomy. It is shown that allowing for a home-product bias inpreferences has a number of interesting implications for theway changes in international capital mobility and in the structureof international financial markets affect how shocks propagatethrough an open economy.     

China''s land arrangements and rural labor mobility

Chinese farm families under the Household Responsibility System have the land use-rights but not the rights of alienation. If permanently leaving agriculture, they have to return the land to local authorities and consequently give up a stream of future land earnings. This paper analyzes the deterrent effect of this land arrangement on labor mobility by constructing a household model which considers both part-time farming and permanent migration decisions. The implications of the model are consistent with the recent Chinese experience of rural floating population in cities and the rapid growth of rural nonagricultural employment.     

Real financial market exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows

This paper studies the relationship between real financial market exchange rate volatility and US cross-border equity flows. We found strong evidence that causality goes from real financial market exchange rate volatility to equity flows. According to our results, real financial market exchange rate volatility negatively influences purchases of foreign equity. This finding is in line with the portfolio optimization theory. The impact of real financial market exchange rate volatility on sales of foreign equity is also negative. This result can be explained by the theory of behavioral finance which states that investors are reluctant to realize losses of their portfolios. This is why investors decrease sales of assets when riskiness of the assets increases. The impact of real financial market exchange rate on net purchases of foreign equity is positive. It follows from these results that sales of foreign equity decrease more strongly than purchases of foreign equity when riskiness of foreign assets increases.     

The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market

This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and it presents estimates of its basic parameters.     

Marriage and labor market discrimination in Japan

"Many Japanese firms have engaged in the practice of compulsory retirement upon a female employee's marriage. In 1966, this practice was ruled as being contrary to provisions in Japan's Civil Code. [The authors] have specified and estimated a model of the economic determinants of age at marriage in order to analyze the effect that this discrimination has had on nuptiality in Japan. [The] results indicate that on average, after accounting for an upward trend, women who married after the 1966 court decision married about one year younger than women who married before 1966." It is also found that age at marriage is influenced by several socioeconomic variables, including wife's wage and educational level, husband's income and educational level, and wife's family background. Data are from a 1975 survey of women aged 20-59 who were living in the Tokyo metropolitan area.     

Capital mobility in a dynastic framework

This paper studies the pattern of capital mobility within atwo-country dynastic model in which each country is exogenouslycharacterized by its degree of altruism toward children. Thesteady-state welfare implications of restricted as well as unrestrictedcapital mobility are established. It is shown that world integrationincreases the steady-state welfare of the more altruistic capitalexporting country and can either increase or reduce the steady-statewelfare of the less altruistic capital importing country.     

我国债券市场流动性分析及对策探讨

流动性是债券市场其生命力所在,本文首先从债券市场流动性内涵入手,然后对我国债券市场流动性的现状,尤其是对2000～2009年整体债券市场、国债以及企业债券流动性进行了具体的分析,最后在对影响我国债券市场流动性的投资结构、券种结构以及做市商制度进行了分析,并从这三个方面提供了相对于的提高债券市场流动性的措施。     

Symmetric and asymmetric persistence of labor market shocks

Within the insider-outsider paradigm, this paper examines persistence of shocks in the labor market. We distinguish “symmetric persistence” where the extent of persistence is independent of the initial direction of the shock, and “asymmetric persistence” where beneficial and adverse shocks of equal magnitude have effects of different size. The paper offers a theoretical rationale for how the symmetry or asymmetry may depend on the extent to which the shock was anticipated in wage setting and then develops a framework in which the possibility of asymmetric persistence can be tested empirically. Using annual UK data, we obtain empirical evidence of significant asymmetry in the response of employment (and wages) to shocks. Small beneficial shocks are reflected entirely in wage increases, although sufficiently large favorable shocks also elicit increases in employment. In contrast, adverse shocks lead to reductions in both wages and employment. Evidence from Japan and West Germany provides some evidence of the presence of asymmetry, although this is less marked than in the United Kingdom. The policy implications are discussed.     

Income inequality,volatility, and mobility risk in China and the US

A unified index of income inequality, volatility, and mobility risk is presented, and measurements based on US and Chinese panel data calculated. China is found to have higher-income volatility than the US in recent data, so that long-run inequality is comparable in the two countries, and short-run inequality overstates long-run inequality more in China than in the US. In both countries volatility and income inequality are increasing over time.     

Stock market rationality and price volatility: Tests using Japanese data

This paper tests the stock market rationality hypothesis, which implies that a stock price is determined as the discounted sum of optimally forecasted future dividends. Mankiw-Romer-Shapiro volatility tests and new volatility tests which do not use the unobservable “ex post rational price” are applied to the data from a stock market in Japan. A Hausman type specification test of the market rationality hypothesis is also developed and applied to the data. The results suggest that we cannot reject the hypothesis that the Japanese stock market is rational. A couple of variance inequalities are violated by the data but the violation does not seem to be significant. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1987, 1(4), pp. 441–462. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.     

中国劳动力市场的变化

日前,中国人民大学劳动人事学院院长曾湘泉教授回顾了2009年至今中国劳动力市场的四起重大事件,在此基础上分析了“中目劳动力市场供求关系”、“低工资时代的结束”、“劳资关系的力量对比”以及“政策的取向”等四个问题。最后给出八项政策建议。     

The dynamics of regional labor markets and active labor market policy: Swedish evidence

This paper analyses the repercussions of region-specific shocksto labor demand. Active labor market programs have been targetedat high unemployment regions in Sweden, a fact that should influencethe regional adjustment process. Fears have been expressed thatsome of the programs may have adverse effects on adjustmentby, for instance, locking-in displaced workers in depressedregions. The empirical results indicate that Swedish regionaladjustment has been comparatively rapid; labor mobility in responseto shocks, for instance, appears to be high by European standards.On the whole, labor market programs do not seem to have impededregional adjustment substantially.     

Characteristics of labor market in Serbia - View on the labor demand on Belgrade and Banat labor markets

The labor market in Serbia is characterized by one of the highest unemployment rates of the working population （aged 15 to 64）. Also, it is notified that the unemployed level of the qualification is very low and that there isn＇t enough space in the existing formal educational system for any new introductions （such as prequalification courses, or lifelong educational concepts）. The research on the labor demand was aimed at assessing the state of the labor markets in the selected regions and at analyzing short-term demand for labor force. The analysis establishes： Which sectors of local/regional economy are being developed and are likely to require additional labor force in the next six months; which types of jobs are likely to be in demand in the aforementioned sectors; which additional knowledge and skills are needed for such occupations. The applied methodology also enabled to analyze information on vulnerable groups of unemployed, namely persons with disturbing factors in employment and the young unemployed of up to 24 years of age. In order to gather reliable data at regional level, a research was conducted on a stratified sample covering 1400 enterprises and some of the statistical labor market indicators were established indicating particularities of the labor markets in the surveyed regions -- Belgrade and Banat.     

A labor force competition model of racial discrimination in the labor market

Conclusion This paper has developed a model of discrimination based on the standard maximization hypotheses. This model assumes an imperfectly competitive labor market. In particular, net differences in the benefits of jobs are not competed away, and labor market coalitions of workers exist. As we have indicated, the model is able to explain the major phenomena associated with labor market discrimination.     

资本市场层次展开的理论路径和分层维度

本文从资本市场层次展开的理论依据出发,借鉴美国资本市场的发展模式,探讨现实中可操作的资本市场分层维度问题,最后结合我国资本市场的现状分析我国资本市场层次展开的路径选择。     

资本市场信息替代机制及风险根源

我国资本市场的起点和发展路径的扭曲导致其信息替代机制的扭曲,是导致我国资本市场低效率、高风险的根本原因。因此,本文通过研究资本市场信息对价格的影响机制,分析我国资本市场的风险根源,为我国资本市场建设提供理论依据。     

资本市场非线性理论研究发展及述评

本文总结分析了线性框架下的经典资本市场理论及其前提假设,指出其在解释现实资本市场中的缺陷,并归纳评述了资本市场非线性理论的研究发展情况。     

Time series representation of the austrian labor market

Zusammenfassung Beschreibung des ?sterreichischen Arbeitsmarktes mit Hilfe von Zeitreihen. - Der Aufsatz untersucht die Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen von L?hnen, Preisen, Besch?ftigung und Zinss?tzen in ?sterreich. Im ersten Teil werden uni- und multivariate autoregressive Gleichungen gesch?tzt, bei denen der Polynomgrad für die zeitliche Verz?gerung durch die Maximierung des Bayes’schen Informationskriteriums gegeben ist. Zwei “Fakten” ergeben sich aus der Analyse der kausalen Ordnungen der Zeitreihen:(i) Die Besch?ftigung wirkt sich auf die L?hne (Reall?hne) aus und nicht umgekehrt.(ii) Preise und Besch?ftigung beeinflussen sich wechselseitig, was darauf hindeutet, da\ es in ?sterreich eine Phillips-Kurve gibt. Diese Ergebnisse bleiben unver?ndert, auch wenn der Reallohn und die bivariaten Gleichungen unterschiedlich spezifiziert werden. Schlie\lich wird gezeigt, da\ im Gegensatz zu neueren Befunden aus den Vereinigten Staaten einige Folgerungen aus dem intertempor?ren Arbeitsangebotsmodell von Lucas und Rapping und aus dem Taylorschen Modell der zeitlich gestaffelten Lohnvereinbarungen mit den “Fakten” dieses Aufsatzes vereinbar sind.

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Résumé Représentation des séries chronologiques du marché du travail autrichien. — Cet article explore des séries chronologiques des salaires, des prix, d’emploi et des taux d’intérêt en Autriche. D’abord l’auteur estime uni- et multivariate représentations autoregressives où l’ordre des “lag” polyn?mials est donné en maximisant le critère d’information bayesien. Deux “faits” résultent de l’analyse du rangement causal des séries chronologiques:(i) L’emploi cause des salaires (salaires réels), mais pas vice versa,(ii) Prix et emploi se déterminent mutuellement l’un à l’autre indiquant l’existence d’une courbe de Phillips en Autriche. Ces résultats restent invariés s’il ya des spécifications différentes du salaire réel et en représentations bivariate. Finalement, l’auteur démontre que, en contraste des résultats récents pour les E. U., quelques implications du modèle intertemporal de l’offre de travail échelonné de Lucas et Rapping et du modèle de contrat de salaire de Taylor sont compatibles avec les “faits” établis dans cet article.

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Resumen La representación del mercado de trabajo austríaco en de series de tiempo. - En este trabajo se exploran las propiedades de las series de tiempo de salarios, precios, empleo y tasas de interés en Austria. En la primera parte se estiman especificaciones autorogrecivas univariadas y multivariadas, en las que el orden de los polinomios de desfasaje está dado por la maximización del criterio de información bayesiano. Dos “hechos” resultan del análisis del ordenamiento causal de las series de tiempo: primero, que el empleo determina el salario (real) y no al revés; segundo, que los precios y el empleo enteractúan entre ellos inicando la existencia de la curva de Phillips en Austria. Estos resultados no se alteran variando las especificaciones del salario real o en representaciones bivariadas. Finalmente, se muestra que, contrariamente a resultados recientes para los EEUU, una cierta implicación derivada del modelo de oferta de trabajo intertemporal de Lucas y Rapping y del de Taylor (staggered wage contract model) es compatible con los “hechos” establecidos en este trabajo.