Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy

Two impediments to effective monetary policy operation include illiquidity in bond markets and the zero bound of interest rates. Under these conditions alternative means of enacting monetary policy may be required. This paper empirically explores policy options implemented through equity and currency markets that will generate similar inflation responses at different time horizons. In terms of GDP loss the least costly means of achieving a particular long run inflation outcome is via the current monetary policy arrangements. Currency market alternatives are volatile but less expensive than the equity market in terms of output loss for short term inflation horizons.

发展中国家积累外汇储备对全球失衡的影响

相比发达国家而言,发展中国家官方资本流动的净规模相对较大,并且这一流动往往发生在与发达国家的交往中。但是,学者们关于经常账户失衡的研究中,却常常忽视这一特征。根据本文对于官方资本流动的净规模与经常账户余额之间的关系研究,亚太地区、撒哈拉以南非洲地区、中东和北非地区的国家的官方资本流动规模与经常     

Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets

We compare the relationship between net capital inflows, real exchange rate movements and growth for twenty emerging markets and twelve developed countries over the period 1985–2004. In developed countries low real exchange rates are associated with faster growth, but in emerging markets depreciations depress growth, even outside crisis periods, and are closely correlated with declines or reversals in net capital inflows. To investigate valuation effects of currency movements, we construct debt-weighted real exchange rate indices for emerging markets, which are more closely correlated with growth than trade-weighted indices.     

竞业禁止、员工流动与新兴市场国家的创新生态系统

中国、印度和巴西这些新兴市场国家正着力吸引和大力促进跨国公司在其境内设立研发机构开展研发创新活动,提升国内创新能力。实施竞业禁止制度有利于保护跨国公司离岸研发过程中形成的无形资产,却不利于雇员流动。雇员流动有利于公司衍生和知识外溢,进而促进创新生态系统的形成与发展。在竞业禁止制度的设计上需要一种大智慧。     

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

中国宏观经济走势及其对策

当前国际经济形势不容乐观，国际金融动荡加剧之势尚未缓和，全球经济增速已经明显放缓，经济发展的不确定性、不稳定性因素还在增加；世界经济格局正在发生变化，中国在世界经济中的地位更显重要并将发挥更大的作用。受国际经济影响，中国经济也出现很多难以解决的问题，主要表现为出口明显萎缩、增长势头减弱、企业尤其是中小企业资金周转困难、企业经营成本上升。促进国家的整体经济发展，救急的措施是：减轻税收，投资拉动，降低贷款利率和实行金融创新，加大出口退税力度，扩大就业和增加居民尤其是农村居民收入：长远的考虑是：宏观经济应由“出口导向型”转为“内需主导型”，调整产业结构以促进产业结构的优化和升级，以技术创新和节能环保为重点推进经济发展方式的转变，进一步推进体制创新为发展提供体制保障。     

Rural Land,Emerging Rental Land Markets and Public Policy in Ethiopia

Abstract: While farmers today access land mainly through administrative‐based land distribution, transactions in rental markets are on the rise. Different rental contracts are informally arranged with varied land use and transfer rights and degree of enforcement. These contracts are often interlocked to overcome the problem of incomplete or missing non‐land factor markets. The empirical evidence is thin but shows mixed records on performance of rental markets. Transactions in rental markets provide an additional venue to access land, reduce disparity in distribution of area of land operated, correct imbalances in factor proportions at farm level, and partly substitute for missing or incomplete factor markets. However, rights to rental land are restricted and poorly enforced, and markets are localized and thinly traded. While participation in rental markets is potentially welfare improving, increasing scarcity of land and demands for higher rent, a fee for right to rent land, payment in cash, farming skills and experience, and proof of no‐default are tightening conditions to access to land, particularly to the young poor farmers. Public policy has an important role in formalizing and enhancing the development of rental markets through strengthening enforceable long‐term security of tenure, providing legal cover to rental contracts, allowing tradability of long‐term use rights through rental markets, and providing the institutional mechanism to enforce contracts and reduce the burden of self‐enforcement. These policy measures need to be nested within a broad framework of market development, and informed by policy research and experimentation.     

2001年新疆经济运行回顾与2002年宏观环境分析

2001年,新疆各地各部门紧紧围绕发展主题和调整主线,认真贯彻落实国家扩大内需的一系列政策措施,加快推进西部大开发战略,努力克服世界经济增长明显减缓、结构性矛盾突出、市场需求不旺以及局部地区农作物遭受严重自然灾害等不利因素的影响,加强调控,狠抓落实,整体经济呈现出增长相对稳定,结构有所改善,收入继续提高的良好局面,为"十五"计划和新世纪开了个好头.     

商业银行监管与腐败关系研究

政府是商业银行监管的重要力量。本文讨论了监管权力与监管效率的关系,通过模型和数据的分析,指出监管部门的权力必须得到约束,并应进一步完善监管部门的行政架构和激励制度。另外,加强市场监管和促进信息披露对于完善监管体系具有重要意义。     

新兴市场体的出口结构与汇率稳定

本文介绍了汇率对出口价格传递机制的模型。该模型中描述了汇率对出口价格的传递机制与出口结构有关:在进口的投入品比例高时,或出口产品与外国产品相似、竞争激烈时,出口变化对汇率的变动不敏感。由于以东亚为代表的新兴市场体普遍采取了出口导向型战略,因此出口结构决定了该地区对汇率稳定的钉住汇率制度有着偏爱本质。而对于不可避免地增加汇率弹性的中国而言,只有使出口结构高级化,才是人民币升值坚实的基础。     

宏观经济失衡条件下区域经济体的新制度经济学分析：一个框架、四个案例

宏观经济失衡中的经济发展节奏和经济发展程度是两个不可回避的问题，以往在研究宏观经济失衡时常常把注意力集中在经济发展节奏上，而不是从制度的内在需求入手分析宏观经济失衡的原因。制度变迁具有模仿性，只有制度达到相对均衡才会使宏观经济实现均衡。文章以新制度经济学有关制度的原理为框架，以天津、北京、上海、成渝四个“新特区”为案例，来分析实现中国宏观经济均衡发展的制度内生性。     

2003年宏观经济形势比较分析

2003年我国宏观经济形势与1998年有着不少相似之处，但2003年的经济中还存在着很多矛盾的表现，诸如产品过剩与短缺并存，投资过热与过冷并存，物价膨胀与紧缩并存，人民币升值与贬值并存，消费亮点与冰点并存，中国经济“威胁论”与“崩溃”论并存。鉴于此复杂情况，笔者认为2004年的财政政策与货币政策应作出相应调整，实行相机抉择。     

The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive.