容灾建设给系统的监控管理带来新课题

目前金融、电信等行业企业对IT系统的可靠性要求越来越高。企业在加大对运维监测的投入力度的同时，也在进行容灾备份系统建设，但容灾系统的建设也给系统的监控管理带来了新课题。     

关注中小银行IT容灾系统建设

近年来，国内外企业的IT容灾系统建设成为热点，由于行业敏感性较强，对IT系统的依赖程度较高，以及监管部门的积极指引等诸多原因，使得金融企业将IT容灾系统建设作为当前的重点工作。     

中国农业银行省级分行实现双机同机房容灾备份

根据农行信息化建设的整体部署，近两年来，农行将建立全国大数据中心，实现全国业务的集中化处理。考虑到这一发展趋势以及省级IT架构的变化趋势，各省分行应采用有的放矢的原则建立省分行同机房存储设备的数据容灾备份方式，而无需投巨资建立业务连续性的容灾系统，即可确保省级客户数据的安全性，提高分行业务系统的整体可用性。     

业务连续 容灾必需

纵观今天的领先企业，共业务战略与IT战略无不紧密配合，并且共同发展，在中国国内，目前，容灾系统中的70%—80%都是在金融、银行领域，几乎所以的银行都上了容灾方案。随着中国信息化以及企业信息化的不断深入与发展，中国更多的行业与企业将从容灾解决方案中受益无穷，使自己的业务永远处于连续状态。     

城商行灾备趋向：共建与外包

虽说城市商业银行的信息化建设在近几年有了长足发展，然而，在系统灾难备份方面却几乎是空白。按照国际上的share 78容灾标准，大多数城市商业银行还处于很低的水平。国际标准share 78定义的容灾系统有七个层次，即Tier0(没有异地数据)至Tier6(零数据丢失，远程磁盘镜像与自动切换)。而目前大多数城市商业银行的灾备能力也就处在Tier0级，就是说数据仅在本地进行备份恢复，     

灾难备份系统的风险防范

数据是企业的血液，数据安全关系到企业的生死存亡。尤其是采用大集中模式建设核心业务系统的金融行业，对数据安全最为关切，因为系统越集中，数据遭受灾难而造成的损失越巨大。损失不仅直接影响企业的利润回报，甚至还会影响到客户忠诚度、企业品牌形象。数据容灾系统，能够在其他系统要素失效时，及时恢复企业系统的正常运行，为数据安全构筑起最后防线。     

浅析“云化”数据中心的容灾

随着金融信息化建设的不断深入,越来越多的金融数据中心使用虚拟化技术实现了数据中心的统一部署与集中管理。"云化"工程在整合服务器资源、简化资源管理、提高资源利用率的同时,使得数据中心的计算资源和数据变得高度集中。数据高度集中之后,数据中心的安全可靠变得更加重要。本文阐述了几种"云化"数据中心容灾的方法:基于数据库复制技术的容灾、基于高可用集群的容灾、基于存储复制技术的容灾和基于存储网关的容灾方法,旨在利用这些技术完善数据中心容灾体系,提升数据中心的容灾能力,保证业务的连续性。     

远程复制技术助力数据中心容灾建设

我国大型金融企业实施数据集中后,都在考虑或已经实施高等级容灾恢复能力的异地容灾解决方案来降低各种潜在的风险。其问,各种远程复制存储技术得到充分应用,METROMIRROR和GLOBALMIRROR是目前采用较多的数据同步和异步远程复制技术。运用与GDPS并行综合体技术紧密结合的METROMIRROR和GLOBALMIRROR技术,构建基于主机平台的近,远三地容灾架构,可为数据中心提供系统运行的负载均衡、业务不间断高可用性和快速容灾恢复的运行能力。     

城商行容灾系统建设蓝图

通过创新性建立灾备数据中心,积极采用绿色节能新技术,持续优化数据中心运营维护工作,做到高安全、低成本、高性能的建设目标,已成为当前信息化建设的重中之重。城商行数据中心的建设应坚持走符合自身特点的IT发展道路,通过“两地三中心”容灾数据中心架构的建设和发展,不断提升和优化信息平台的安全性和可靠性,降低整体运营成本,提高业务部署速度,     

演练，不仅仅是测试——保险行业应急管理体系建设窥探

随着国内各保险企业集约化的进行,大型综合运营中心步人建设高峰将是未来几年信息化投资规模持续增长的热点。这些集中的大型运营中心的建设也带来了保险企业容灾中心建设的高潮。目前已经明确提出要建或已建好容灾中心的保险机构有多家,如平安上海容灾中心投入运营并启动,太平人寿完成上海容灾中心建设,大地保险在张江建运营中心,太平洋保险在成都建立容灾中心,     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.