SUPPLY RESPONSES IN CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

This paper is concerned with regression models of time series data, where the data relate to market level aggregates not to individual farms or groups of farms. It presents ideas and preliminary explorations rather than final results. Some aspects of Nerlove's agricultural supply response model are examined, and some conceptual and practical problems discussed. Two general models are then proposed, one for annual crops and one for livestock products. In the time available little empirical work could be undertaken, so that the usefulness, or otherwise, of the thoughts and models presented rests on rather little evidence.     

TIME AND RECURSIVENESS IN LIVESTOCK FEEDING TRIALS*

In livestock feeding experiments the problem of recursiveness arises because the quantity of feed consumed by an animal is a function of its past history of feeding. The problem is most acute where experiments are designed to analyse sub ad lib feeding. The analysis of such experiments encounters two important problems. The first is that the actual quantity of feed consumed is an endogenous variable and is not directly under the control of the experimenter or the livestock producer. The second problem is the mathematical complexity of the relationships involved. A solution is suggested as a quasi reduced-form model.     

DROUGHT ASSISTANCE POLICY*

Droughts are a feature of the Australian agricultural scene. Most farmers develop successful strategies to grapple with drought. The purchased fodder and interest rate subsidies used in the 1982-83 drought are analysed. As partial input subsidies, they had serious flaws in meeting goals of efficiency, equity and welfare support. Alternative policies to provide incentives for rational private decision making and to provide direct welfare support are discussed and advocated as a preferable approach to future droughts.     

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION POLICIES AND MEAT PROCESSING MARGINS: THE CASE OF NEW ZEALAND, 1967-1988*

The New Zealand export meat industry has been through a considerable number of changes in the 1980s. The deregulation of export slaughter facilities, Supplementary Minimum Prices, Producer Board intervention, declining livestock numbers and domestic cost pressures have all affected the performance of the domestically based processing sector. Major changes in market access and demand have influenced off-shore marketing operations, particularly for sheepmeats. Additionally, there has been a change in the type of meat exported with a greater proportion of further processed product shipped in recent years. As an example of the impact of these developments on livestock producers, the producer share of the United Kingdom wholesale market return for a representative prime lamb carcase has fallen from 40 per cent in 1978 to 25 per cent in 1988. In this article the pattern of intervention in the New Zealand pastoral meat industries from the mid-1960s is detailed, emphasising the different environments of the beef and sheepmeat enterprises. Then the principal factors influencing domestic processing margins for these products are empirically examined. Alternative model specifications and alternative estimation techniques are compared and contrasted. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of the historical patterns of assistance and structural change, and in terms of current rationalisation pressures on the meat processing sector.     

河南省畜禽养殖量的区域差异规律分析

[目的]河南省是我国重要的畜禽养殖产品生产基地,畜禽养殖业的管理与治理在河南尤为重要。为了掌握河南省畜禽养殖业现状,并有针对性地探索河南畜禽养殖业健康发展的政策方略,文章开展了河南省畜禽养殖量的区域差异研究工作。[方法]依据2000—2015年河南统计年鉴的分市数据,采用锡尔指数方法,对豫北、豫西、豫中、豫东和豫南五大区的畜禽养殖量的区域差异进行了研究。[结果]研究发现1999—2014年河南省畜禽养殖量总体呈现上升的趋势,且可以2007年为界分为1999—2006年的快速增长阶段和2007—2014年的稳定增长阶段。与此同时,1999—2014年河南省畜禽养殖量的总体差异呈现下降的趋势,且区间差异影响较大,区内差异影响较小。同样,也可以2007年为分界,分为1999—2006年的高差异阶段和2007—2014年的低差异阶段。从总体上看,河南省五大区畜禽养殖量的区间、区内差异对总体差异的贡献相对稳定,贡献率从高到低依次为豫南、豫东、豫北、豫中和豫西。[结论]据此,河南省畜禽养殖业整体呈现出"在平稳中调整,在调整中优化"的发展趋势,建议河南省因地制宜地制定畜禽养殖业区域政策,建立体现各区特点的管理体系。     

我国畜牧业比重区域格局变化及对策

以省和县为单元对我国畜牧业产值比重区域分布规律和区域变化进行了分析,对“十五”期间我国畜牧业产值的区域变化作了预测,并据此提出了发展区域畜牧业生产的对策。     

WEATHER AND PRAIRIE WHEAT PRODUCTION*

Estimates of Canadian prairie wheat production during the 1952 and 1967 period using regression equations based on precipitation, and on both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PE), were analysed. Inclusion of PE is the equations considerably improved the results. The estimation procedures outlined can be used to make pre-harvest assessments of the weather contribution to wheat production, and to evaluate the effects in past years of non-weather factors such as rust epidemics. The weather variations themselves can also be evaluated. For example, it is estimated that two thirds of the billion dollar difference between the 1961 and 1966 wheat crops was due to weather differences.
LES CONDITIONS CLIMATIQUES ET LE RENDEMENT DU BLÉ — Obtenues à l'aide d'équations de régression basées soit sur les précipitations et l'évapotranspiration potentielle (EPT), soit sur les précipitations seulement, des estimations de rendement du blé sur les prairies Canadiennes pour la période de 1952 à 1967 ont été analysées. L'introduction du facteur ETP dans les équations améliora les résultats considérablement. Ces méthodes d'évaluation peuvent être utilisées pour determiner à l'avance la contribution des conditions climatiques à la récolte de l'année courante. Elles peuvent servir aussi à évaluer les effets de facteurs autres que le climat, comme les épidémies de rouille, sur les rendements des années passées. On peut également évaluer les variations climatiques elles-mêmes. Par exemple, on a estimé que les deux tiers du milliard de dollars entre les valeurs des récoltes de 1961 et 1966 étaient attribuables aux différences climatiques.     

陕西渭北旱塬粮畜产业区域布局与发展战略

通过生产典型调研、统计数据与农业资源条件分析,总结了渭北旱塬粮食、畜牧产业发展现状与存在问题,提出了适合渭北旱塬粮食、畜牧发展的区划与“十二五”期间的产业发展战略.结果表明,渭北旱塬粮食种植区可分为中西部残塬沟壑粮食主产区、中北部山地沟壑粮食自给区、北部高原沟壑粮食发展区和东部台塬沟壑粮食主产区4个区域;畜牧生产区可分为西部畜牧产业优势区、中部畜牧产业发展区、北部畜牧产业新兴区和东部畜牧产业优势区4个区域.“十二五”期间渭北旱塬粮食产业发展重点是优化种植区域布局,推进优质小麦和专用玉米产业化发展;畜牧产业发展重点是突出渭北养殖业的地方特色优势,提高养殖户组织化程度.     

试论农牧结合与中国农业的可持续发展

通过对农牧结合在中国农业可持续发展中的作用的分析,认为农牧结合是实现农业可持续发展目标的可靠保证：①有利于保障食物安全;②有利于提高资源利用率;③有利于稳定并提高地力;④有利于增加农民收入,促进农村经验综合发展。提出农牧结合的中心问题就是要围绕饲料供需矛盾,探讨解决饲料问题的途径,主要对策是：①将饲料作物纳入种植制度实行三元种植结构;②利用农业副产品开发饲料资源;③对畜群结构进行适应调整,发展草食     

中国粮食生产与消费的区域格局演变

[目的]当前中国各地区资源禀赋、社会经济、政策等因素存在较大差异,粮食供求区域性和品种性矛盾将成为未来一个时期内中国粮食必须面临的现实情况,必须进一步了解中国粮食生产和粮食消费的格局演变状态,探索在新形势下保障国家粮食安全的新思路。[方法]以省级行政区为单位,选择不同样本数据(省级粮食产量、消费量),通过空间经济学重心模型对2000~2014年全国稻谷、玉米和小麦的生产和消费的重心进行测算,同时运用地理信息系统(GIS)对3种作物的生产和消费重心运行轨迹进行描绘并对其生产重心和消费重心的耦合性进行测算。[结果]粮食生产和粮食消费的空间匹配性在不断下降,空间布局和粮食利益矛盾进一步加深,区域利益矛盾激化,给新时期粮食储备、粮食调配、粮食多样化供给等方面带来挑战。[结论]需要各区域主体明确责任,完善粮食流通体系,实现省际合作,建立区域粮食利益协调机制,实现区域粮食的合理配置,有效保障粮食安全。     

广东省荔枝生产气候生态分析与区划

介绍了广东省荔枝生产概况,论述了广东省荔枝生产与气候生态条件关系,采用模糊聚类方法,将广东省划分为４个荔枝气候生态区。     

PRODUCTION STRUCTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN SAWMILLING INDUSTRY*

This paper examines the production structure of the Australian sawmilling sector over the period 1950-51 to 1984-85 using a translog cost function. The results show that the sawmilling industry is best represented by a production function which does not have any restrictions on functional form. Inputs, including capital, labour, materials and energy, are generally found to substitutable for one another, although the degree of substitutability is small. There have been economies of scale in the Australian sawmilling industry, and technological change has been capital and energy-using, and labour and materials-saving.     

区域经济发展与粮食生产耦合分析——以榆林市为例

为更好地协调经济发展与粮食生产二者之间的关系,文章以榆林市各县级单元为评价对象,在构建经济发展与粮食生产综合评价指标体系的基础上,探究二者之间的耦合度及耦合协调度,并根据结果对研究区进行了耦合协调型分区。结果表明:榆林市各县级单元的经济发展与粮食生产耦合度值均大于0.52,表明各县级单元的经济发展与粮食生产二者关系密切。耦合度为0.64~0.72的评价单元数量最多,其次为0.72~0.84,分布面积最少的为耦合度0.84的区域;耦合协调度空间分布整体呈现中南部与东北部较高,西部较低的规律。根据计算结果,将研究区划分为4种类型,其中,低水平耦合区面积最为广泛,其次为拮抗区与磨合区,协调区面积最小,表明榆林市为实现可持续发展需进一步协调经济发展与粮食生产二者之间的关系,促进其和谐统一发展。     

辽宁省农业绿色生产水平评价及区域差异

目的 推动农业绿色生产对于加快农业现代化进程,促进农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。方法 文章从经济效益、资源利用、生态优化和基本保障4个层面选取了18个代表性指标构建评价指标体系,采用熵值法客观评价了2005—2018年辽宁省的农业绿色生产水平及各市之间的差异。结果 （1）2005—2018年全省农业绿色生产水平的评价分值基本呈现直线式上升的趋势,由2005年的0.233提高到2018年的0.806,年均增长18.9%。其中,经济效益、资源利用、生态优化和基本保障水平整体呈良好的发展态势,但目前资源利用和生态优化对整体发展水平的贡献较低。（2）从各市的农业绿色生产水平来看,大连、盘锦等5个市相对处于较高水平,本溪、营口等6个市处于中等水平,抚顺、铁岭和鞍山3个市处于相对较低水平。结论 辽宁省农业绿色生产水平整体呈现良好的发展态势,但区域差异较大。其中,辽宁东北部及中部地区农业绿色生产有待加强。     

北京市瓜蔬类作物生产风险区划研究

北京市瓜蔬类作物的规模相对其他作物日渐扩大,并形成了明显的优势生产区域,但是仍面临着较高的生产风险。对此,该文选择单产变异系数、旱涝指数、温度距平值、规模指数和效益指数等多个指标,构建了风险测度模型,在分析北京市瓜蔬类作物生产现状及其演变趋势的基础上,对蔬菜、西瓜的生产风险进行了测度和评估,提出了通过运用农业保险工具、开展不同作物保险组合来分散风险的政策建议。     

中国西瓜甜瓜生产区域布局变迁及驱动因素研究

目的 中国是西瓜甜瓜生产和消费大国,其产业发展对于保障城乡居民鲜果消费和带动农户增收非常重要。方法 文章系统梳理了1961年以后中国西瓜和甜瓜产业变迁史,运用重心模型分析中国西瓜和甜瓜生产重心演变轨迹及优势主产区变化,解析其区域布局变迁背后的影响因素。结果 （1）1961年以来中国西瓜甜瓜产业发展划分为缓慢发展期、快速发展期、全面增长期和结构调整期4个阶段。（2）20世纪90年代以来,中国西瓜生产重心整体比较稳定,向西南移动了196.82 km,中国甜瓜生产重心变化剧烈,整体向西移动了545.64 km。（3）进入21世纪以来,中国西瓜和甜瓜东北优势区地位逐渐下降,西北优势区发展快、潜力大。（4）自然禀赋、科技创新、产业政策及消费需求升级是中国西瓜和甜瓜产业区域布局变化的主要影响因素。结论 针对中国西瓜甜瓜产业发展面临的现实需求与制约瓶颈,提出未来要提升农业生产“三品一标”能力,加大产业科研资金投入,创新绿色技术,提高机械化水平,加快产销模式变革和业态功能创新,推动西瓜甜瓜产业高质量发展。     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND LIVESTOCK FEEDING

Much has been written about feeding eficiency as a major influence on projits in livestock production. Feed costs are shown to be the largest single item of cost and feeding eficiency to hinge on the twin problems of ascertaining the best level of yield for which to feed and of selecting those, feedstufs that produce the yield at least cost. Having demonstrated the incontrovertible logic of marginal analysis in the solution of these problems, agricultural economists tend to abandon the farmer to the task of putting theory into practice. While it is not disputed that a knowledge of principles may assist producers by delineating the information that is ideally required, the gul/ that exists betmeen theoretical principles and their practical application is a very real one, and is the concern of this paper in respect of the determination of optimal levels of output. After reviewing the manner in which the relevant theory applies to diferent types of livestock production practical problems are considered and possible solutions discussed.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK AND CROPPING INDUSTRIES: A STUDY OF INTENTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS*

Most of the supply elasticity estimates reported for Australian agriculture are derived from equations estimated using time series data and incorporating ad hoc assumptions about price expectations. The authors' aim is to compare previously obtained supply elasticity estimates with those derived using theoretically more acceptable survey data on both producers' intentions and price expectations. Surveys were conducted in three regions in N.S.W., namely, the Southern Tablelands, the South-West Slopes and a portion of the Western Division centred on Cobar. The results of the research show that there are no major differences between the supply elasticities derived using the traditional time series approach and those obtained using the survey data. This finding is reassuring, given the cost of collecting survey data.     

浅析农业区划在农业生产和区域系统中的作用

论文从农业区划的自然属性与社会属性出发,探讨了农业区划在农业生产和农业区域创新系统中的地位与作用。