中国对一带一路沿线国家纺织服装品出口贸易影响因素实证分析

一带一路背景下,我国经济得到了很好的发展。本文通过分析我国纺织服装品出口至一带一路沿线国家的现状以及在国际市场上的竞争力,并运用2000—2016年中国对一带一路沿线65个样本国家的面板数据建立引力模型,引入竞争优势指数作为变量进行分析并对我国相关企业提出建议。     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.     

A comparative study of innovation behaviour in Singapore's KIBS and manufacturing firms

While most services innovation studies are concentrated on the OECD or EU countries, research on services innovation in the non-OECD context is still rare. This study investigates innovation behaviour of a certain group of services – knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS), compared with the manufacturing sector in Singapore. The main findings of this study are: (1) KIBS firms have higher innovating ratio than manufacturing firms, but innovating manufacturing firms are more likely to do R&D than innovating KIBS firms; (2) KIBS firms have higher human capital intensity, training spending intensity, innovation spending intensity, and R&D spending intensity than manufacturing firms; (3) KIBS firms and manufacturing firms have similar innovation objectives, although some delicate nuances do exist; (4) KIBS firms are less likely to have overseas partners for innovation collaboration than manufacturing firms; (5) there is a U pattern of innovation collaboration with geographic distance for both KIBS and manufacturing firms; (6) social capitals are important for KIBS firms' successful provision of innovation support to manufacturing clients; (7) the importance of spatial proximity varies over different phases of innovation support.     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

中国和美国服务业出口竞争力比较分析

本文在界定服务业出口竞争力评价体系的基础上,对中、美两国服务业出口竞争力进行了4个方面的比较分析。通过比较两国服务业净出口额、服务业出口国际市场占有率、服务业贸易竞争优势指数和服务贸易显性比较优势指数4个指标得出:美国在技术密集型的服务业上有极强的出口竞争力,而中国在技术密集型服务业上具有显性比较劣势,并且中国在传统服务业运输和旅游业上的出口竞争力在逐渐减弱,但是中国技术密集型服务业的出口竞争力在增强。最后,本文借助波特的"钻石模型"对中国和美国服务业出口竞争力进行了进一步分析并提出了相应的对策建议。     

The International Competitiveness of CEEC Agriculture

The paper surveys the price competitiveness of agricultural production in Central and East European Countries (CEECs). It draws together empirical work conducted by tje authors and other studies that have estimated domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios for agriculture in various CEECs. The paper identifies that in general CEEC crop production is more internationally competitive than livestock farming. During the mid‐1990s, wheat production in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia was internationally competitive. In contrast, during the same period, milk production was not internationally competitive. However, there is also a considerable degree of variation from country to country; very little of Slovenia's agricultural production is internationally competitive. In the livestock sector the greatest problems lie where large herds have been broken up resulting in fragmented production. This has particularly affected beef and milk production. Considering variations in DRCs by farm type, larger private farms in Hungary and the Czech Republic are more internationally competitive than smaller private farms in crop production. If CEEC producers faced average EU prices for their traded inputs and output, most could be price competitive. However, conclusions should be treated with caution due to sensitivity of DRC ratios to changes in international prices and the choice of the shadow prices for non‐tradeable inputs     

Are Exports of China,Japan and Korea Diverted in the Major Regional Trading Blocs?

In recent years China, Japan and Korea, the three major economies in East Asia, have been gearing up their efforts to sign free trade agreements with many different regions and countries. One of the main reasons for this is that they fear that with a regionalism movement rising in every corner of the world, their exports are discriminated against and diverted in the trading blocs of other nations. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is a real fear. We utilise the gravity equation augmented with dummy variables for regional trading blocs in three different specifications. One is the static, standard gravity model to examine the effect of regional blocs on the ‘level’ of exports from these three countries in 2003; the second is the fixed effects and random effects panel models for the period 1993–2003; and the third is the dynamic, partial‐adjustment model to examine the effect of blocs on the ‘changes’ in exports between 1993 and 2003. The results show that trade diversion is observed only for China's exports in EU, EFTA and EAEC, but no diversion effect is observed for Japan's and Korea's exports in any of the major trading blocs. On the other hand, trade creation is observed for exports from China in ASEAN, for exports from Japan in ASEAN, CACM, CARICOM, EAEC, EU and NAFTA, and for exports from Korea in ASEAN, CACM, EAEC and MERCOSUR. Thus, Japan's and Korea's fear of discrimination and trade diversion is ungrounded, while China's fear is grounded only to a limited extent.     

技术贸易壁垒下中美纺织品贸易竞争力及影响因素研究

采用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数及贸易互补性指数分析了中美两国纺织品在国际市场中的竞争地位及各纺织品类贸易互补性强度,并将美国发布的纺织行业技术通报(TBT)作为技术变量纳入随机前沿引力模型,进一步实证分析中美纺织品贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国纺织品国际竞争优势强于美国,尤其表现在纺织制成品类;出口角度看,两国在纺织制成品类上呈现显著贸易互补性,进口角度看,两国在纺织原料上具有较强互补性。在影响因素中,技术壁垒、进口国经济、出口国人口及两国距离负向抑制中美纺织品贸易,出口国经济、进口国人口及人均收入之差正向促进中美纺织贸易发展。     

Uganda's policy reforms,industry competitiveness and regional integration: a comparison with Kenya

The paper reviews, first, Uganda's economic policies affecting the industrial sector and analyses the international competitiveness of Uganda's manufacturing industries, using a sample of 21 firms in 12 industries. It computes indices of comparative advantage, export and domestic competitiveness and compares the Ugandan indicators with those of Kenyan firms. It also identifies the main sources and obstacles to competitiveness using a decomposition method, which breaks the unit cost indices down into their main components. The study is timely as Uganda is re-establishing a free trade zone with Kenya and Tanzania, and also faces liberalized trade with the rest of the world. The numerical results of the study suggest that Ugandan firms, although not generally cost-competitive with Kenyan and other international firms, due to the country's land-locked geography and its de-industrialization under the preceding political regimes, have benefited from a recently established business-friendly environment and are more competitive in several industries than is generally assumed. This means that they may not be able to export internationally, but they are likely to hold their ground against Kenyan imports under regional free trade.     

Assessing Export Competitiveness through the Lens of Value Added

Extensive changes in the organization of world trade over the last two decades have renewed concerns about countries’ ability to compete in export markets. The impact could be especially large in industries that participate in global value chains (GVCs). This study assesses the recent export performance of 56 countries in five industries associated with GVCs using an index of normalised revealed comparative advantage (RCA) that can be compared across industries and countries and new data on the domestic value added in exports from the OECD's Trade in Value‐added database. For a number of the GVC industries, countries identified as the most competitive based on gross exports are often found to be less competitive when evaluated in terms of domestic value added. Business services are an important exception; several countries appear more competitive on a value‐added basis than based on conventional measures of gross exports. Despite concerns about hollowing out, a number of major industrial countries remain highly competitive in one or more GVC industries, even from the perspective of domestic value added. A value‐added approach to RCA provides insights that are not apparent from an exclusive focus on gross exports.     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Exports? Evidence from African Countries

This paper empirically examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on exports in Africa. Using the system‐generalised method of moments estimator for linear dynamic panel data on a sample of 53 African countries and five‐year periods from 1970 to 2009, the paper finds that higher FDI inflows are positively and significantly linked with higher exports of goods and services. A large part of the FDI effect is driven by its spillover effects on exports. The paper also finds the lagged value of exports, a competitive currency, as well as increases in domestic investment and physical infrastructure, to be factors stimulating African exports.     

Country Resources,Country Image,and Exports: Country Branding and International Marketing Implications

ABSTRACT

A country's economic, political, and socio-cultural institutions have always been regarded as important determinants of a company's exports and international marketing strategies. With the recent thinking about countries becoming more like a brand, these factors should impact a country's marketing and branding strategies. There has been a call for more research on how countries can use their institutions and resources to enhance their globalization efforts. This study intends to fill this gap by examining the relationships between country institutions and resources, country image, and exports based on institution theory and resource advantage theory. Both archival and primary data for 24 countries over 12 years (1995–2006) were used to assess a random-effects panel data model. The results reveal the significance of economic development and communication infrastructure on exports. In addition, country image was found to indirectly affect exports. The theoretical and practical implications on country branding and international marketing conclude the article.     

How Do US Economic Sanctions Affect EU's Trade with Target Countries?

We investigate the impact of US economic sanctions on EU's trade using a panel data approach expressed in a two‐level framework. Both multilateral and unilateral sanctions involving the US and the EU have a negative impact on EU trade (total, imports and exports). We argue that unilateral sanctions, if extensive in nature, would have a depressing impact on target countries’ trade, especially in the stage after sanctions have been imposed. Over time, both multilateral and unilateral sanctions lead to an increase in a target country's exports to the EU, lending support to the third‐country effect of sanctions.     

国际分工对产业结构演进的影响及其对我国的启示——基于新兴工业化国家跨国面板数据的经验分析

从需求角度探讨了国际分工与产业结构演变的关系,提出国际分工主要通过直接效应和间接效应,以及由此衍生的收入效应、关联效应和替代效应来影响一国产业结构变化的理论假说。采用20世纪80年代陆续进入工业化成熟期的15个新兴工业化国家的跨国面板数据进行了实证检验,发现这些新兴工业化国家在产业结构向服务经济转型的同时,制造业的比较优势和外贸依存度却出现了下降趋势,国内最终消费占比呈现上升趋势。其经济含义表明:新兴工业化国家如果过度强化在国际分工中的制造国地位,长期依靠商品贸易来拉动经济增长,可能阻碍产业结构由工业经济向服务经济的转型;而随着制造业比较优势的下降,如果减少对商品贸易的依赖,更多地依靠国内需求来发展经济,对于产业结构的转型将有正面的促进作用。以上结论对于我国经济结构的调整具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Trade and migration flows between some CEE countries and the UK

The recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) has enhanced interest in the causes and also the consequences of migration between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. This paper considers the possibility that some of these consequences make themselves felt in the trade flows between migrants' countries of origin and destination. Using a panel of data covering a number of CEE countries between 1996 and 2003, we employ an augmented gravity model to examine the effects of immigration from these transition countries on their bilateral trade flows with the UK. We pay attention to a number of issues that have been raised within the literature on gravity models. We find evidence that migration positively enhances the bilateral exports of the migrants' home country; however, there is less (but some) evidence that the imports from their destination country are also enhanced.     

欧盟各国税收制度竞争与协调现状分析

伴随着欧洲经济一体化的不断扩大,欧盟各国普遍采用税收竞争的手段来吸引外来投资,改善本国企业竞争力,对于这种税收竞争所带来的后果,各国评价不一.文章试图通过对欧盟各国税收既有竞争又希望协调的现状进行分析,来探讨如何在欧盟内部消除有害税收竞争,实现税收协调的目标.     

The influence of competition on international sourcing strategies in the service sector

Rising importance of service industries and international trade in services led to increased competition in the service sector. The aim of this study is to analyze the international sourcing behavior of service firms as a strategic means to contend with competition. Our theoretical predictions suggest that there is a U-shaped relationship between a service firm’s domestic competitive position and its pursuit of international sourcing: the relationship is first negative and at later stages positive. The international sourcing behavior of domestic competitors and inward investments of foreign rivals are expected to positively affect a service firm’s international sourcing magnitude. A large-scale empirical analysis using a panel of 579 German service firms supports our hypotheses.     

KIBS 嵌入对中国制造业贸易竞争优势的促动效应

随着产业的不断分化和价值链的延长,知识密集型服务业(KIBS)嵌入对制造业的贸易竞争优势产生了至关重要的作用。本文通过面板矫正标准误差(PCSE)模型实证中国KIBS对制造业贸易竞争优势带来的复杂效应。从整体KIBS对中国制造业贸易竞争优势的促动效应看,KIBS只对技术密集型制造业具有较大的正面促动效应,对资本密集型制造业几乎没有影响,而对于劳动密集型制造业反而具有明显的负作用。从具体KIBS看,科学研究服务和信息通讯服务业对制造业贸易竞争优势具有明显的正向带动作用,金融服务业的发展对不同要素密集度制造业的贸易竞争优势具有非对称性的影响,而商务服务则对各种要素密集度制造业的贸易竞争优势都具有明显的负面影响。     

Economic performance over time: Does porter's diamond hold at the national level?

This research examines the conditions that contribute to the performance of countries and their industries in international markets. Building on Porter's dynamic diamond, 1960 and 1985 data on 49 countries are used to develop country-level factors related to national economic performance. Three factors were identified: infrastructure/demand, competitive investment, and education. The analysis considers how these factors are related to gross domestic product, net exports, and foreign direct investment. It also assesses changes over time and differences between industrialized and developing countries. The relationships between the three factors and GDP were substantially the same for both industrialized and developing countries, but not for net exports and foreign direct investment. These findings suggest that the relationships between the factors and national performance have changed over time and that there are important differences between developing and industrialized countries.