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1.
Dal Didia Mihai Nica Geungu Yu 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2013,22(8):1130-1151
The United States of America enacted the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000 to grant sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) a preferential treatment in their exports to the USA. With this Act, most of the exports from SSA can now enter the USA duty-free, and this is expected to boost the exporting and manufacturing sectors in SSA. Hopefully, this singular act of assistance from the USA will spur entrepreneurship in SSA, thereby creating jobs and jump starting meaningful economic growth in the region. Since trade is a major catalyst in economic development, AGOA is arguably the most meaningful intervention from a developed country to an under-developed region such as SSA in recent times. Has AGOA had any impact on US trade with SSA? This paper sheds some light on this issue by examining the flow and composition of trade between the USA and AGOA countries. The analysis uses trade data (US imports) for 36 countries over 12 years. Empirical estimations based on the gravity model show that receiving AGOA status has a strong positive and significant impact on overall trade with the US. Interestingly, however, the analysis also shows a disproportionate impact of crude oil imports from the oil-producing countries of Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, which is clearly not the intent of the Act. 相似文献
2.
Olayinka Idowu Kareem 《International Trade Journal》2013,27(3):237-259
ABSTRACTThe stringency in standards usage, especially in developed markets, has trade effects, particularly for Africa. Thus, this study investigated the export effects of the EU standards for Africa in a two-step, Helpman et al. (2008) model for two high-value commodities. In all, 52 African countries were considered from 1995 to 2012. This study finds that fish standards are trade enhancing at the extensive margins, but not at the intensive margins. However, vegetable standards are trade inhibiting at both the extensive and intensive margins. Thus, these findings suggest that the impacts of standards on exports are commodity-specific. 相似文献
3.
《Journal Of African Business》2013,14(2):37-54
Abstract Studies on regional economic integration in West Africa have concentrated on conventional accounts, which focused primarily on the activities of states and their agencies. The role and activities of actors who play a key function in the political economy of the integrating states and in the integration process are largely ignored or given limited attention. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the integration process in West Africa by exploring the role and the activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the development and growth of the Economic Community of West African States (ECO-WAS). Further, this paper contends that MNEs are never passive in market integration. And through their membership in business associations, they participate in the creation, development and growth of the regional scheme. As the winds of economic liberalization and political reforms sweep across the West African subregion, it will become ever more crucial to forge partnerships between multinational enterprises and the host countries with the desire of fostering regional economic 相似文献
4.
5.
Marie M. Stack;Emmanuel B. Amissah;Martin Bliss; 《The World Economy》2024,47(5):2122-2146
Economic integration ranks as one of the leading development strategies in Africa. The newly created African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) linking three major regional blocks offer a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using a structural gravity model of bilateral manufacturing trade between the African Union member states and all countries in the world, the trade effects of African economic integration agreements (EIAs) are assessed. The findings suggest that economic integration, in aggregate, enhances total African exports. Disaggregating the effects by type of agreement and by subgroups of countries, free trade agreements (FTAs) and partial scope agreements (PSAs) are found to increase extra-African exports, but have no effects on intra-African exports. A positive and significant effect on intra-African exports is introduced when the FTA dummy is combined with AfCFTA in contrast to a neutral effect stemming from the joint FTA-TFTA dummy. The findings suggest that a continent-wide FTA yields greater benefits when compared with integrating the subregions. 相似文献
6.
Fernando Martin-Mayoral Gabriela Morán Carofilis John Cajas Guijarro 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2016,25(5):724-756
The paper analyzes the effects of four regional integration agreements (Common Market of the South [MERCOSUR], Andean Community [ANCOM], Central American Common Market [CACM] and North America Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]) on bilateral trade in 19 countries from the Western Hemisphere for the period 1970–2014. For this purpose we estimate different gravity models to control for trade creation and diversion, export diversification and intra-industry trade using OLS log-linearized gravity model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood panel data estimators that allow controlling for zero-value trade flows. We find trade creation for ANCOM, MERCOSUR and CACM and trade diversion for NAFTA and MERCOSUR countries. Export diversification negatively affects bilateral trade in all American agreements, while intra-industry trade has contributed to trade expansion in ANCOM and the opposite for NAFTA, MERCOSUR and CACM. Global supply chains may help us explain these results. Finally, we find anticipatory effects on trade several years before the signing of the agreements, but only NAFTA countries seem to be natural trading partners in the region while the rest of Latin American regional agreements have not resulted in a comprehensive, profound and consolidated common market. 相似文献
7.
Since the mid-1980s, there was the rise of a new wave of economic regionalism in the world economy with the spread of free trade agreements (FTAs). A key objective of free trade involves developing commercial exchanges between member countries. The gravity model is a vital tool to explain the bilateral trade data against the variables of the relative size of the pair of countries implicated in the trade: distance, common border, and language and models for each of the FTAs. This article focuses on studying the influence of FTAs in the Mediterranean countries in which we integrate the role of regional dummy EU (15), EMU (euro zone), the AMU and AGADIR agreement in trade flows. The use of regional variables are designed to determine whether its FTAs contribute to the creation of trade diversion. This study examines a cross-section and panel of 27 countries for 1980–2011. The results show the existence of a strong relationship between the factors of FTAs and trade flows. 相似文献
8.
在贸易理论中能够定量应用于两个经济之间贸易额计算的,目前只有引力模型。但引力模型在实践中的应用效果并不令人满意。注意到贸易的本质就是交换,贸易额与产出之间应该存在着某种特定的数量关系,本文认为引力模型的基本形式应该能够普遍适用于国内贸易和国际贸易,并称之为“贸易定律”。模型中的距离应该理解为“经济距离”,代表运输成本。据此思路以中国对外贸易数据进行验证,贸易定律是有效的。 相似文献
9.
Julian Frede Hakan Yetkiner 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2017,26(6):633-648
This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results. 相似文献
10.
后金融危机时期,中俄双方政治互信升级,两国建立了更为密切、全面的战略协作伙伴关系。文章基于较长时间跨度(1989～2010年)中俄双边贸易相关数据构建贸易引力扩展模型,研究两国贸易流量的影响因素以及发展潜力问题,并提出促进双边贸易发展的政策建议:进一步深化区域合作机制,完善贸易制度安排;强调各领域的务实合作;积极构建中俄自由贸易区;加强双边经贸结构调整,培育新兴贸易形态。 相似文献
11.
贸易引力模型研究新进展及其在中国的应用 总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23
贸易引力模型作为分析双边贸易量的工具已在国际贸易中得到广泛应用。本文首先介绍了贸易引力模型的内涵和形式,然后把贸易引力模型的实证研究新进展分为调整解释变量和解释边境效应两个阶段进行了梳理,从基于贸易理论基础和不基于贸易理论基础两个角度对贸易引力模型理论基础推导新进展进行了分析,对贸易引力模型在中国对外贸易中的应用进行了介绍。最后进行了评述和展望,并指出中国贸易引力模型的研究方向。 相似文献
12.
Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, \"Brexit\" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination). 相似文献
13.
对外贸易的激增一方面拉动了我国经济增长,一方面又产生了许多问题.其对经济增长的拉动固然重要,但由此所产生的问题也不容忽视,因此,深入分析产生问题的深层次原因并找出解决方案就变得尤其重要.文章认为增加国内贸易是解决对外贸易激增的最佳方案,而区域整合形成的区域市场一体化又可以促进国内贸易;区域整合和区域市场一体化是解决问题的有效途径. 相似文献
14.
文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。 相似文献
15.
技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响研究——基于中美贸易引力模型的实证分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
技术性贸易壁垒与出口之间的关系一直都是学术界关注的重点,但目前学术界对二者之间的具体影响机制尚未形成统一认知。利用2001年~2016年中国电子行业对美国出口额的时间序列数据,通过理论推导与拓展贸易引力模型,研究了美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响。结果表明:实行传统关税壁垒,美国会比中国损失更多的出口利益,从而使得美国放弃关税壁垒而选择技术性贸易壁垒;技术性贸易壁垒对出口呈现正"U"型影响。研究结果还显示:美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口呈倒"U"型影响,这是因为美国技术性贸易壁垒强度会因中国技术创新数量与出口的增加而产生"壁垒强度突变";同时,美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国技术创新数量呈正"U"型影响。根据研究结论,提出了相关政策建议。 相似文献
16.
Pascal L. Ghazalian Lota D. Tamini Bruno Larue Jean-Philippe Gervais 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2013,22(4):579-601
A gravity model is developed to explain bilateral trade flows in primary and processed commodities within the same agri-food supply chain. It accounts for vertical production linkages, trade and domestic policies, and supply rigidities at the farm level. Our application focuses on cattle/beef trade flows between 42 countries. The estimated parameters of the model are used to simulate trade flows. We found large differences in the impacts of the full and partial liberalization scenarios. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to generate confidence intervals around predicted trade liberalization outcomes. 相似文献
17.
加入WTO对中国双边贸易增长贡献的实证研究——兼论影响中国双边贸易增长的因素 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本文根据中国双边贸易的实际情况,对传统的贸易引力模型进行了改进,应用改进后的引力模型研究了加入WTO对中国双边贸易增长的贡献,并探讨了其它因素对中国双边贸易增长的影响。研究结果表明,加入WTO对中国与WTO成员之间的双边贸易增长贡献了19.6%,贸易伙伴GDP增长、中国GDP增长、贸易伙伴对中国的直接投资额、APEC的贸易制度安排、香港和新加坡的转口贸易等因素都对中国贸易增长有显著正面影响,而运输成本则是阻碍中国与贸易伙伴之间贸易增长的主要因素。 相似文献
18.
Sandra Seno‐Alday 《The World Economy》2019,42(9):2790-2815
This paper explores the relationship between regional integration models and trade network structures. The paper further investigates the implications of these trade relationship configurations on risk. The exploratory study models the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as networks: countries in each region are nodes connected by lines representing commodity trade flows. The study compares the evolution of the two regional networks over a 25‐year period (1990–2014). The results confirm that different regional integration models lead to differently structured economic relationships. The findings show that loosely coupled networks are vulnerable to the failure of a few connected nodes (concentrated vulnerability), but that tightly coupled regional networks are vulnerable to the failure of any of its nodes (random vulnerability). These unique differences in vulnerability have critical implications for managing economic risk. 相似文献
19.
Niru Yadav 《International Trade Journal》2013,27(4):287-310
This article utilizes data from seventy-seven countries over the period 2004–07 in a gravity trade model to examine the impact of four dimensions of trade facilitation—physical infrastructure, information and communication technology, business environment, and border efficiency—on parts and components and final goods trade for the machinery and transport equipment sector. The results show that the effect of importers’ overall trade facilitation measures is stronger for promoting parts and components than for final goods trade. Among the four dimensions, border efficiency has the largest impact on trade flows for this sector, and the effect of exporter and particularly importers’ border efficiency is important for parts and components, as compared to final goods trade. 相似文献
20.
通过运用贸易引力模型,对影响中国与东盟自由贸易区的双边贸易的因素,特别是自由贸易区的建设对双边贸易的影响进行实证分析。探讨中国与东盟各国之间的贸易关系以及中国-东盟自由贸易区的建设对中国与东盟各国之间的双边贸易所产生的影响具有十分重要的意义。 相似文献