Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

Since Friedman [Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1953) 157-203] an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of 75 developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way that supports Friedman’s hypothesis. The paper also examines the importance of terms-of-trade shocks in explaining the overall variance of output and prices in developing countries.     

金融开放度与宏观经济波动——基于发达国家与发展中国家和地区的实证研究

本文搜集了1990年—2009年52个不同发展程度国家和地区的数据,对金融开放影响宏观经济波动的驱动机制进行了实证研究。金融开放程度虽然降低了产出波动的幅度,却增加了总消费、收入和相对消费的波动幅度,但是在引入人力资本存量、本国金融发展水平和公共治理环境制度因素与金融开放度的交叉项后,金融开放明显降低了一国的宏观经济波动程度。因此,只有在本国良好的制度水平和健康的金融体系环境下,金融开放才可以降低对宏观经济波动造成的风险。     

危机冲击与中国贸易“超调式”震荡的经验分析

从总量层面、贸易国别层面以及BEC产品类别层面,对本轮全球金融危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的波动情况进行了分析。结果表明,中国进、出口贸易不仅在总量层面上表现出十分显著的"超调式"震荡特征,而且"超调式"震荡特征有着显著的贸易国别差异性和产品类别差异性。综合分析后发现,本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的"超调式"震荡与当代国际分工的演进以及中国在全球分工中的定位有关。据此得到启示:一方面,不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发的风险进而转向所谓"内需主导型"发展模式,另一方面,缓解危机冲击下贸易大幅震荡应从构建国家价值链入手。     

Boosting Int＇l SMEs Cooperation——Interview with Zhu Shuhai,Director,Department for SMEs,Trade Development Bureau,Ministry of Commerce

Either in the developed countries or developing countries,the small and medium enterprises（SMEs）have been playing a significant role in promoting the technological progress,employment,export, etc.Especially in the modern society with efficient development of knowledge and information,which is making the production and business operation smaller and more dispersed,and with more family participation as well,SMEs are becoming a more and more important force of the social and economic development. Although the SMEs have made very important contributions to the national economic development and the increase of employment,they are thirsty of more government and social supports,especially for the overseas development.In order to meet the mission of promoting the SMEs development,the Ministry of Commerce has established Department for SMEs. In July,China＇s Foreign Trade inte viewed Zhu Shuhai,Director of Department for SMEs,Trade Development Bureau,Ministry,of Commerce.     

发达国家和发展中国家企业对外直接投资动机--基于文献综述的比较研究

在全球经济一体化背景下,企业对外直接投资行为的兴起激发了国内外学术界对其动机的研究。发展中国家和发达国家由于市场发展程度存在较大的差别,企业对外直接投资动机也大相径庭。通过对比归纳发现,发达国家企业对外直接投资动机较为集中,受东道国因素影响较多并大多有市场推动;而发展中国家企业对外直接投资动机较复杂多样,主要受母国因素影响且政府政策推动具有较大作用。这一比较研究也表明,在我国针对企业对外直接投资经济影响的研究中,应先考虑并区分不同动机企业对外直接投资产生的差异化结果。     

中国与发展中国家贸易摩擦特点与原因分析

发展中国家对我国贸易摩擦迅速增多已经成为中国近年来对外经济贸易遏到的一个突出问题。本文较为全面地剖析了发展中国家对华贸易摩擦的特点与原因,并针对性地提出了我国应对发展中国家贸易摩擦的具体对策。     

发展中国家对华反倾销的深层次分析

经济全球化使得国际贸易竞争态势更加激烈,中国加入WTO后发展中国家对华反倾销趋势有增无减,这种严峻形势要求我国企业必须对发展中国家反倾销的形势、特点有清醒的认识,结合发展中国家的国际贸易地位,产业结构,及反倾销法律环境制定有针对性的应对策略,这样才能提高我国产品在发展中国家的市场占有率,拓展发展中国家市场。     

FDI的新特点对发展中国家金融稳定的影响

20世纪90年代以来,发展中国家吸收的FDI呈现出一些新特点.这些新特点的出现,使FDI对发展中国家金融稳定的影响更为复杂.发展中国家政府有必要更加关注FDI对其金融稳定的影响,采取有效措施,加强对FDI的监管.     

Information and Export Performance

Exporters’ performance in a given market may affect their exports to the rest of the world. Importers base their future transaction decisions upon the information revealed by exporter’s performance in other countries. This paper estimates significant effects from these information spillovers on the export patterns of fourteen developing countries, and somewhat smaller effects for a sample of exporters from six developed countries. On the other hand, it is in developed countries’ markets that the largest information spillovers are generated. Indeed, increases in market share in the United States allows for significant increases in exports to the rest-of-the world associated with information spillovers. But developing country markets could also generate important amounts of information for regional exporters. Hong Kong is the top market in terms of generating information for other East Asian exporters, and the Argentinean and Chilean markets play an important role for exporters from other Latin American countries.