Price Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property

This article studies the relative volatility of commercial and residential property prices. Empirical evidence of commercial property prices being more volatile than the prices of residential property is presented. Models are built following that of Lucas. Theoretical statements are derived to show the exact conditions under which the observations arise. The cases of fixed supply and flexible supply are considered separately.     

房价下跌对我国商业银行个人住房信贷带来的冲击——基于银行压力测试房价敏感性分析方法

本文首先描述了当前房地产市场的现状和未来房地产市场的发展动向,随后介绍了个人住房贷款客户理性违约发生成本,最后着重论述了银行压力测试中针对房价因素的敏感性分析方法,并利用该方法对某股份制商业银行一级分行数据进行测试,判断了该分行在房价下跌的不同情景假设下承受风险的能力。     

商业银行服务产品定价探讨

本文联系银行实际,探讨银行在迅速变化的环境中,特别是《商业银行服务价格管理暂行办法》出台后,银行在产品和服务定价方面存在的问题及其对策。本文对银行产品和服务定价中的问题、定价的一般性原则进行了分析、阐述,并结合商业银行的实际,提出了转变观念、改革机构和机制、创新产品和服务、科学核算成本、加快信息化建设和人才培养等应对措施。     

蔬菜价格指数保险的有效性研究--金乡大蒜价格指数保险案例

近年来大蒜价格大幅波动,蒜农面临种植风险,政府面临调控难题。在此困局下,山东省金乡县出台的大蒜价格指数保险,具备了突出的产业规模基础、价格信息透明度高、政府补贴以及政保农合作共赢的要素,实现了有效运作,为稳定价格、保证供给、化解价格风险和保障蒜农收益发挥了一定的作用,具有较为广阔的推广前景。     

蔬菜价格指数保险的有效性研究——金乡大蒜价格指数保险案例

近年来大蒜价格大幅波动,蒜农面临种植风险,政府面临调控难题。在此困局下,山东省金乡县出台的大蒜价格指数保险,具备了突出的产业规模基础、价格信息透明度高、政府补贴以及政保农合作共赢的要素,实现了有效运作,为稳定价格、保证供给、化解价格风险和保障蒜农收益发挥了一定的作用,具有较为广阔的推广前景。     

Transaction Frequency and Commercial Property

Metrics using repeat sale data assume that frequently and infrequently sold properties are similar in capital expenditures, maintenance and other characteristics. Value-added investors concentrate on repositioning properties which requires capital investment and managerial skills. Returns using repeat sales likely overstate appreciation by misattributing this investment. Present results show that frequently and infrequently traded properties represent different property populations. The first sale of a repeat transaction sells at a significant discount compared to single sale properties while the second sale transacts at a premium. The results suggest that repeat sale indices may overstate price appreciation and represent returns for a different, relatively small cohort of properties when compared to the large number of properties that transact only once during a specific time period.     

Two Decades of Commercial Property Returns: A Repeated-Measures Regression-Based Version of the NCREIF Index

This article documents 20 years of performance of commercial real estate in the United States using a portfolio of properties that comprise the widely followed NCREIF Property Index (NPI). We develop an extension of the repeated-measures regression (RMR) to produce an improved version of the NCREIF Index that eliminates the stale appraisal and seasonality problems. We use this RMR version of the index to examine the magnitude and duration of the of the crash in property values in the early 1990s. The RMR Index is also compared with the NAREIT Index, and property-type subindices are developed using a Bayesian estimator. Finally, it is also shown how the RMR can be used to estimate the average magnitude of random valuation error in commercial property valuation.     

CRB对我国CPI价格指数的关系引导性研究

本文基于1996-2009年的时间序列数据,对国际商品期货价格指数(CRB)与我国消费者价格指数(CPI)的引导关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:国际商品期货价格指数(CRB)对我国消费者价格指数(CPI)在8个月内存在着因果关系,国际商品期货价格指数(CRB)可以对我国消费者价格指数(CPI)进行预测.随着我国开放程度增加,国际商品期货价格指数(CRB)对我国消费者价格指数(CPI)引导关系的范围逐渐扩大.     

The Price of UK Commercial Credit Lines: A Research Note

Abstract:  The UK Cruickshank Report (2000) highlighted the potential for market power issues where bank concentration could lead to more expensive credit. Because of the many risk factors influencing the cost of credit, it is difficult to establish whether differences in pricing is a consequence of risk or is due to differential pricing practices among lenders. In this study, we find that even when risk factors are taken into account, considerable variation in pricing among UK lenders remains. Moreover, the lenders with the largest market share in SME finance over the 8 years surveyed, charged significantly higher interest premia.     

国有商业银行产权制度变迁的理论分析

国有商业银行在产权制度上存在着两项缺陷:一是外部产权主体行为失当;二是内部产权关系行政化因此,必须推动国有商业银行的双元变迁,即强制性变迁和诱致性变迁,才能不断完善其产权制度。     

物权法新司法解释与商业银行应对之策

为正确审理物权纠纷案件,最高人民法院于2016年2月22日发布了《关于适用〈中华人民共和国物权法〉若干问题的解释（一）》,自2016年3月1日施行。《新司法解释》将对商业银行经营产生重大影响。本文试对《新司法解释》的主要内容进行诠释,并就商业银行应对之策提出几点建议,以期对商业银行正确适用《新司法解释》能有所裨益。     

开征物业税对房价的影响

以往讨论房价过高的原因时,一般都将其归结为土地拍卖制度不合理、炒房客太多、开发商利润太高等等.其实,另外还有一种力量在推动房价的上涨--名目繁多的房地产税费,因为高房价总是和高税费相对应,而目前税费至少占房价初始价格的40%左右,依照我国现行的土地审批制度,老百姓在买楼时,房价中就已包含了几乎全部的税收.     

The Hierarchical Trend Model for Property Valuation and Local Price Indices

This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends, and specific characteristics play a role. Every cluster, a combination of district and house type, has its own price development. The HTM is used for property valuation and for determining local price indices. Two applications are provided, one for the Breda region, and one for the Amsterdam region, lying respectively south and north in The Netherlands. For houses in these regions the accuracy of the valuation results are presented together with the price index results. Price indices based on the HTM are compared to a standard hedonic index and an index based on weighted median selling prices published by national brokerage organization. It is shown that, especially for small housing market segments the HTM produces price indices which are more accurate, detailed, and up-to-date.     

Arbitrage Free Price Bounds for Property Derivatives

Market frictions inhibit the perfect replication of property derivatives, and define the property spread as a price measure in the incomplete real estate market. We identify transaction costs, transaction time, and short sale constraints as the main frictions in this market. Based on these frictions, we set up a framework of arbitrage free price bounds for property derivatives. In turn, we use observed derivative prices to determine the implied cost of the frictions. Lastly, we verify these values by using other research, which confirms the accuracy of our framework.     

商业银行票据业务利率定价模式研究

随着利率市场化改革的推进,商业银行产品定价问题变得越来越重要.本文系统研究了我国商业银行票据业务定价方法和模型及策略,有较强的针对性和实用性,并有一定的前瞻性,对我国中小商业银行的票据产品定价具有一定的指导作用.     

美国商业地产融资情况及对经济的影响

无论是参与主体、融资结构、证券化率,还是银行贷款质量,美国商业地产融资状况与住房市场相比均存在较大差异,从而对房地产市场本身以及宏观经济产生不同的影响。次贷危机以来,美国商业地产也经历了上世纪90年代以来最大的波动,一度有观点认为商业地产可能是令美国经济受损的第二只鞋,监管当局也对商业地产市场衰退拖累银行体系和整体经济存在担忧,而新近发生的迪拜事件再次使商业地产问题引起公众的关注。本文从市场基本面和融资的角度,分析了美国商业地产运行现状及对经济的影响。     

The Impact of Capital Expenditures on Property Performance in Commercial Real Estate

Using a sample of 47,260 annual and 12,276 unique property observations during 2000–2011 we analyze the relationship between capital expenditures and performance by employing 2SLS models, in which capital expenditures are modeled as a function of property characteristics (age, square footage, occupancy rate, leverage, leasing commissions, lagged returns and property type), market conditions (interest rates, credit spread and standard deviation of cap rates) and property fixed effects. Our results reveal that while capital expenditures are mostly idiosyncratic and related to unique property characteristics, they are a significant determinant of property returns. We find persistently strong positive relationship between capital expenditures and excess NPI returns when controlling for the endogeneity of capital expenditures for industrial, office and retail properties. A further analysis reveals that this relationship is driven by the positive impact of building improvements and building expansions, while returns in all property types do not fully adjust to account for tenant improvements.     

论汇金模式与商业银行国有金融资产管理

国有控股是国有商业银行产权改革的基本方向.在改革目标明确的情况下,如何合理设计政府持有国有股权的方式,是国有商业银行产权结构改革必须解决的主要问题.国有出资人代表的公司化运作,对于有效解决出资人自身的激励约束问题、减少委托代理风险具有积极的作用.中央汇金公司就是这种模式思路下的产物.