An evolutionary explanation of the value premium puzzle

As early as 1934 Graham and Dodd conjectured that excess returns from value investment originate from a tendency of stock prices to converge towards a fundamental value. This paper confirms their insights within the evolutionary finance model of Evstigneev et al. (Econ Theory 27:449–468, (Evstigneev et al. 2006)). Our empirical results show the predictive power of the evolutionary benchmark valuation for the relative market capitalization and its dynamics in the sample of firms listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index in 1981–2009.     

A lottery-preference-based explanation of realized kurtosis puzzle in Chinese stock market

High kurtosis corresponds to fat tails on both sides and under risk-aversion assumption investors’ dislike of left-tail loss outweighs their preference for right-tail gain. Therefore, high kurtosis characteristic of stock should predict high expected returns. However, the high-frequency-data-based empirical results on Chinese stock market are just the opposite, which we refer to as the ‘realized kurtosis puzzle’. Using the double sorts and firm-level cross-sectional regression methods, we further demonstrate investors’ preference for lottery-like stocks or lottery preference is key to solve the puzzle. Our further empirical research verifies stocks with higher retail investors’ shareholding proportion and unavailable for short show stronger ‘realized kurtosis puzzle’. In addition, the puzzle is particularly significant in high lottery preference periods while less apparent in low lottery preference times.     

The rise in UK unemployment: the search for an explanation

This paper suggests that the model used by Layard and Nickell to account for changes in unemployment is highly restrictive in that it imposes cross-equation constraints and neglects labour supply as a source of the increase in unemployment. A less restrictive model, which circumvents some of the problems encountered in the Layard-Nickell approach, is suggested as a tool to account for an unemployment path. Dynamic simulations with the model suggest that labour supply persistence, increased mark-up of prices over wages and low GDP growth have, in particular, contributed to the UK unemployment increase from 1967 to 1983.     

Marx on Ricardo: an explanation of some important misunderstandings

Ricardo's theory of value and distribution is reconstructed by proceeding along the lines of Marx's critique of Ricardo. It is thus an anti-critique of Marx's reading of Ricardo. The chapter ‘On Value’ in Ricardo's Principles is shown to be a consistent and rigorous treatment of the determinants of prices of production. According to Ricardo labor-values merely serve to approximate more elaborate standards of value. Marx's criticism is shown to rest crucially on his own misinterpretation of Ricardo's definitions and presupposes his own – faulty – theory of surplus value. Therefore Ricardo's theory can – contrary to Marx's theory of surplus value – still be regarded as a fruitful complement to Sraffa's model.     

The role of warnings in regulation: keeping control with less punishment

Regulatory agencies frequently present violators with warnings, not pursuing prosecution if the violation ceases upon receipt of the warning. We show how such warnings may help regulators to keep control: Prosecution is costly for the regulator, and insufficient prosecution efforts yield low penalties. Thus, with a limited regulatory budget, threats of harsh sanctions are credible only if the number of violators is low. This produces multiple Nash equilibria. If firms may make mistakes, the economy can accidentally switch from one equilibrium to another. Warnings reduce substantially the probability of such accidental switches from the full-compliance to the no-compliance equilibrium.     

The recession of 1990: An Austrian explanation

Conclusion Deficit spending and money-supply expansion do not eliminate recessions. Theycause recessions. This fact will never be understood unless economists and government policymakers stop trying to micro-manage the economy, and start studying what their actions are doing to the structure of production. Heavy inflation of the money supply followed by sharp cutbacks change the rules right in the middle of the game for millions of businesses in the economy. For the last 40 years, government expansionary policies have stimulated industries to create false and untenable investments. These policies are followed by government corrective actions that destroy those same projects—waste the billions of dollars invested in them, and throw millions out of work. Business cycles are not an essential feature of market capitalism. They are the result of government interference with the market. In the misdirection of labor and the distortion of the structure of production during past business cycles, it was fairly easy to point to the places where the excessive expansion had occurred because it was, on the whole, confined to the capital goods industries... In contrast, the present expansion of money, which has been brought about partly by means of bank credit expansion and partly through budget deficits, has been the result of a deliberate policy, and has gone through somewhat different channels... I do not doubt that in a sense we have today the same kind of phenomenon, but the over-expansion, the undue increase of labor employed in particular occupations, is not confined to a single, clearly defined block such as the capital-goods industries. It is now spread much more widely, and the distribution is much more difficult to describe. It is a field I would wish some statistically minded economist would investigate in order to show how the process operated in particular countries. Friedrich A. Hayek     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the Feldstein-Horioka coefficients for 37 African countries using the recently developed Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) panel cointegration techniques. The empirical findings reported in this paper reveal that savings and investment are non-stationary and cointegrated series. The estimated coefficients using FMOLS, DOLS, and PMG are 0.38, 0.58, and 0.36, respectively, for the sample as a whole for the period from 1970 to 2006. These results confirm previous studies' findings that capital was relatively mobile in African countries compared to OECD countries. In addition, our study shows that there are marked differences in savings retention coefficients for different country groups in Africa (CFA franc zone and non-CFA franc zone countries, oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries, civil law and common law countries). These results have some policy implications.     

Licensing a quality-enhancing innovation to an upstream firm

This paper examines the case where a patent holder who is not a producer licenses its quality-enhancing innovation to an upstream firm, which sells its product through a downstream monopoly. It is found that the patent holder prefers a two-part tariff contract, which includes both a fixed-fee and per-unit output royalty. However, the royalty included in the licensing contract makes each firm price at a markup over marginal cost and therefore makes both consumers and the society worse off, if the innovation is small and the supplier is weak. From a welfare perspective, licensing by means of an ad valorem tax is more efficient, as it allows the upstream firm to be less aggressive when trading with the downstream firm.     

Still puzzling: evaluating the price puzzle in an empirically identified structural vector autoregression

The price puzzle, an increase in the price level associated with a contractionary monetary shock, is investigated in a rich, 12-variable SVAR in which various factors that have been mooted as solutions are considered jointly. SVARs for the pre-1980 and post-1990 periods are identified empirically using a graph-theoretic causal search algorithm combined with formal tests of the implied overidentifying restrictions. In this SVAR, the pre-1980 price puzzle depends on the characterization of monetary policy, and the post-1990 price puzzle is statistically insignificant. Commonly suggested theoretical resolutions to the price puzzle are shown to have causal implications inconsistent with the data.     

Anticipated regret as an explanation of uncertainty aversion

The paper provides a psychological explanation of uncertainty aversion based on the fear of regret. We capture an agent’s regret using a reference-dependent utility function in which the agent’s utility depends on the performance of his chosen option relative to the performance of the option that would have been best ex post. An uncertain option is represented as a compound lottery. The basic idea is that selecting a compound lottery reveals information, which alters the ex post assessment of what the best choice would have been, inducing regret. We provide sufficient conditions under which regret implies uncertainty aversion in the sense of quasi-concave preferences over compound lotteries.     

Linear contracts as incentives: a puzzle

This paper reexamines the linear schedule of compensation as a tool for providing incentives to managers when contractible output is a function of costly effort and a random shock. Two puzzling situations compatible with linear schemes of compensation are presented. First, if the model parameters are such that the optimal participation on output is below 50%, the variable compensation turns out to have a negative effect on manager’s utility. Second, if it is below 25%, linear incentives allow situations in which larger utilities are reached by means of smaller rewards.      

Solving the price puzzle with an alternative indicator of monetary policy

We identify the effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables in VARs using the Divisia M4 measure of money as the policy indicator variable. We obtain theoretically sensible responses—whether or not a commodity price index is included. Thus, we eliminate the well-known empirical puzzles from the VAR by a novel choice in a policy variable, rather than the usual attachment of an ad hoc variable.     

Back to basics: The key to the velocity puzzle is M1

The recent instability in M1 velocity can be explained by recognizing that M1 consists of two types of transactions balances: those that are used for GDP transactions and those that are used for non-GDP transactions (mainly financial transactions). A model is developed to adjust for instability in the non-GDP transactions balancesvia measurements of portfolio adjustments between M1, non-M1 deposits, and nonbank assets. The model is much better in explaining post-1980 velocity instability, implying that portfolio adjustments induced by the rapid institutional change of this period are decisive factors in determining velocity changes. Also, an explanation of recent changes in V2 and V3 can be derived from the explanation of V1 changes.     

Nonlinearity as an explanation of the forward exchange rate anomaly

This article shows that nonlinearity can provide an explanation for the forward exchange rate anomaly (Fama, 1984 Fama, E. 1984. Forward and spot exchange rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 14: 319–38. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Using sterling-Canadian dollar data and modelling nonlinearity of unspecified form by means of a random field, we find strong evidence of time-wise nonlinearity and, significantly, obtain parameter estimates that conform with theory to a high degree of precision.     

虚拟水战略的经济学解释——比较优势理论的一个分析框架

虚拟水战略是从水资源需求管理角度解决水短缺问题的重要创新,它的成功实施需要经济理论分新的支撑.本文针对两个地区,设计四种可能的情形,在这些情形中交错地假设两个地区在水资源供给、其他要素禀赋和生产技术水平方面的异同,运用比较优势理论分析两地区的生产和消费选择,从而论证虚拟水战略的实施环境,得出结论:即使缺水地区也应综合考虑水资源、其他限制性生产要素、生产技术水平以及生产的机会成本,正确运用虚拟水战略以增加自己的收益.     

The European distaste for US budget deficits: A regime shift explanation

It is the general consensus that the chief stimulus to the European recovery from the 1982 recession was exports to the United States. It is therefore paradoxical that European official circles were critical of the swingeing US budget deficits throughout the 1980–85 period even though the budget deficits were the driving force behind the high US import demands. This paper argues that the European government had become more concerned with price stability and hence was obliged to pursue contractionary macro policies in order to offset the supply-side price pressure caused by the strong dollar. The Europeans were unhappy with the US budget deficits because they would have benefited more if the US recovery had been maintained by looser monetary but tighter fiscal policies.

The contributions of this paper are: one, showing how a standard macro model can be modified to accomadate the endogenous European policy response; and two, testing the joint hypothesis of ‘new’ European concerns and of induced contraction by examining the policy reaction functions estimated over different time periods.     

The retirement consumption puzzle revisited: Evidence from the mandatory retirement policy in China

Using data from China's Urban Household Survey and exploiting China's mandatory retirement policy, we use the regression discontinuity approach to estimate the impact of retirement on household expenditures. Retirement reduces total non-durable expenditures by 19%. Among the categories of non-durable expenditures, retirement reduces work-related expenditures and expenditures on food consumed at home but has an insignificant effect on expenditures on entertainment. After excluding these three components, retirement does not have an effect on the remaining non-durable expenditures. It suggests that the retirement consumption puzzle might not be a puzzle if an extended life-cycle model with home production is considered.     

Banks' risk race: A signaling explanation

Many observers argue that one of the major causes of the 2007–2009 recession was the abnormal accumulation of risk by banks. This paper provides a signaling explanation for this race for risk. If banks' returns can be observed while risk cannot, the less efficient banks can hide their type by taking more risks and paying the same returns as the more efficient banks. The latter can signal themselves by taking even higher risks and delivering bigger returns. The game presents several equilibria that are all characterized by excessive risk taking as compared to the perfect information case.     

Countercyclical pricing: A consumer heterogeneity explanation

We show that a seasonal good could be priced countercyclically due to the heterogeneous seasonal shifts in consumer valuations. We provide empirical support for our explanation based on two product categories (canned soup and tuna) studied in the literature.     

The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think

The ‘‘purchasing power parity puzzle’’ is the difficulty of reconciling very high short-term volatility of real exchange rates with very slow rates of mean reversion. The strongest evidence of slow mean reversion comes from least squares estimates of first-order autoregressive models of the long-horizon dollar-sterling real exchange rate. Using median-unbiased estimation methods, we show that these methods underestimate the half-lives of PPP deviations, and thus overestimate the speed of mean reversion. When the specification is amended to allow for serial correlation, the speed of mean reversion falls even further. This makes resolution of the purchasing power parity puzzle more problematic.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: July 2004We thank Lutz Kilian, James Lothian, Mark Taylor, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.