Modelling long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Botswana

The paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Botswana. It also reviews the country’s exchange rate regimes. Botswana operated a fixed exchange – without adjustable pegs from 1966 to 1976; with adjustable pegs from 1976 to 1980; and with a currency basket from 1980 to date. Using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure, the paper found terms of trade and trade openness to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate. The actual real exchange rate has deviated significantly from the equilibrium exchange rate. The estimated speed of adjustment is very slow, which calls for policies that could raise it in order to avoid excess misalignments.     

Exchange rate dynamics under alternative optimal interest rate rules

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results — exchange rate changes “calibrated” from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.     

DO FOREIGN INVESTORS PRICE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK DIFFERENTLY?

We test whether foreign investors price foreign exchange risk differently from local investors. Drawing from the closed‐end country fund literature, we argue that both differential access to information by foreign versus local investors and different sources of exchange risk that investors face (economic or translation exposure) will lead to different pricing of the exchange risk associated with American Depositary Receipt (ADR) investments. We apply a two‐step method to country portfolios of ADRs of Australia, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Our results show that foreign investors generally price exchange risk differently from local investors, and that the source and magnitude of differences in exchange risk pricing vary significantly across countries. Although significant differences in pricing exchange risk between foreign and local investors are observed for Australia, France, and Japan, no such pricing difference is noticed for the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the pricing differences observed for Australian and French ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk of underlying share returns (economic exposure), whereas the pricing differences for Japanese ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk associated with currency translation (translation exposure). We offer some explanations for our findings.     

Exchange rate dynamics under alternative optimal interest rate rules

We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results — exchange rate changes “calibrated” from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.     

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence

We investigate interdependencies between stock returns and exchange rate changes for six industrialised countries, namely the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France and Canada, by testing for volatility spillovers using a bivariate EGARCH model. Volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes are found for all countries except Germany. These spillovers are symmetric in nature. No evidence is found of volatility spillovers from exchange rate changes to stock returns for any country. Spillovers from stock returns to exchange rate changes have increased since October 1987. This finding is consistent with the notion that international financial markets have become increasingly integrated.     

Three‐Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized floating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility leads economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper, we propose more general STAR transition functions that encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric effects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another and considers threshold effects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three different exchange rate data sets: one for developing countries and official nominal exchange rates, the second for emerging market economies using black market exchange rates, and the third for OECD economies.     

Monetary disequilibria and the euro/dollar exchange rate

Although stable money demand functions are crucial for the monetary model of the exchange rate, empirical research on exchange rates and money demand is more or less disconnected. This paper tries to fill the gap for the euro/dollar exchange rate. We investigate whether monetary disequilibria provided by the empirical literature on US and European money demand functions contain useful information about exchange rate movements. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model improves when insights from the money demand literature are explicitly taken into account.     

从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩

从汇率制度角度透视我国当前的商业银行流动性过剩现象,目的在于为经济金融的进一步开放提供理论依据和决策参考。本文通过对“三元悖论”理论的解读和1998～2006年各季度数据的实证检验,揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性,即在我国现行的汇率制度下,外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了商业银行存差的扩大,造成金融系统乃至整个社会的流动性过剩。基于上述研究,作者提出了如下相关建议:完善我国汇率形成的市场机制,培育相对均衡汇率;深化我国外汇管理体制改革,有序开放资本市场;汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革协调配合。     

The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements

This paper investigates the impact of US monetary policy on the level and volatility of exchange rates using an event study with intraday data for five currencies (the US dollar exchange rate versus the euro, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen). I construct two indicators of news about monetary policy stemming separately from policy decisions and from balance of risk statements. Estimation results show that both policy decisions and communication have economically large and highly significant effects on the exchange rates, with the surprise component of statements accounting for most of the explainable variation in exchange rate returns in response to monetary policy. This paper also shows that exchange rates tend to absorb FOMC monetary surprises within 30-40 min from the announcement release.     

汇率风险对冲如何影响企业并购行为——基于自由现金流的视角

本文基于2001—2019年上市公司年报中关于外汇衍生品的使用信息,研究发现,使用外汇衍生品的上市公司相比未使用的公司发起并购的概率更低,但并购的市场和经营绩效有所提高。主要原因在于,中国上市公司进行并购通常以企业自有资金进行现金支付,外汇衍生品的使用大幅降低了公司出于预防性动机而持有的现金,从而降低了公司发起并购的概率。此外,进行汇率风险对冲可避免公司因持有大量自由现金流而发生的过度投资行为,从而提高了公司的投资效率。总体而言,使用外汇衍生品进行汇率风险对冲可使上市公司更注重并购质量而非并购数量,从而实现“少而精”的投资策略。本文研究对进一步厘清企业使用外汇衍生品的相关影响提供了一定参考。     

从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩

从汇率制度角度透视我国当前的商业银行流动性过剩现象，目的在于为经济金融的进一步开放提供理论依据和决策参考。本文通过对“三元悖论”理论的解读和1998～2006年各季度数据的实证检验，揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性，即在我国现行的；汇率制度下，外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了商业银行存差的扩大，造成金融系统乃至整个社会的流动性过剩。基于上述研究，作者提出了如下相关建议：完善我国汇率形成的市场机制，培育相对均衡汇率；深化我国外汇管理体制改革，有序开放资本市场；汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革协调配合。     

Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets

This paper examines the importance of exchange rate exposure in the return generating process for a large sample of non-financial firms from 37 countries. We argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns is conditional and show evidence of a significant return impact to firm-level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change. We further show that the realized return to exposure is directly related to the size and sign of the exchange rate change, suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates as a source of time-variation in currency return premia. For the entire sample the return impact ranges from 1.2 to 3.3% per unit of currency exposure, and it is larger for firms in emerging markets compared to developed markets. Overall, the results indicate that foreign exchange rate exposure estimates are economically meaningful, despite the fact that individual time-series results are noisy and many exposures are not statistically significant, and that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross-sectional return variation. Moreover, we show that the relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns is more consistent with a cash flow effect than a discount rate effect.     

Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets

The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.     

Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange rates

This paper investigates whether the behavior of real and nominal foreign exchange rates as well as interest rates are governed by nonlinear dynamics; it also explores whether observed deviations from parity conditions exhibit nonlinear dependence. Standard statistical tests for randomness, such as autocorrelation tests, have low power against a large class of deterministic, nonlinear processes. Discerning nonrandomness of innovations in exchange rates is important for a variety of reasons. For example, many models of international asset pricing assume exchange rates to follow a random walk. Furthermore, nonlinear patterns in deviations from various exchange rate parities have implications for the existence of a time-varying foreign exchange risk premium. With the use of the BDS statistic and a correlation dimension analysis, this paper's primary findings are that (1) foreign exchange markets have become increasingly complex and therefore less amenable to forecasting over time; (2) although forward exchange risk premia are statistically significant and display a deterministic structure, this structure is complex and therefore not easily discernible; and (3) innovations in real exchange rates are consistent with a Purchasing Power Parity equilibrium.     

The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk

Departures from purchasing power parity imply that different countries have different prices for goods when a common numeraire is used. Stochastic changes in exchange rates are associated with changes in these prices and constitute additional sources of risk in asset pricing models. This article investigates whether exchange rate risks are priced in international asset markets using a conditional approach that allows for time variation in the rewards for exchange rate risk. The results for equities and currencies of the world's four largest equity markets support the existence of foreign exchange risk premia.     

Nominal exchange rate volatility,relative price volatility,and the real exchange rate

We model real exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, and relative price volatility using real and nominal factors. We analyze these volatility measures across developing and industrialized countries. We find that the inclusion of nominal factors achieves a sizable reduction in the real exchange rate volatility spread between developing and industrialized countries. In addition, we find that nominal factors matter to real exchange rate volatility in the short run and the long run, and that for developing countries, a higher share of real exchange rate volatility stems from relative price volatility.     

Emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk: An empirical investigation using a value-at-risk decomposition technique

The correlation between a portfolio's equity and foreign exchange components plays a role in reducing foreign exchange exposure. Investors must account for this correlation when determining the extent of foreign exchange risk in emerging market equity portfolio investments. This study employs a VaR risk factor mapping technique, under the variance–covariance VaR approach, to decompose portfolio risk in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia. For comparison purposes, the same technique is used to decompose portfolio risk in the US. The study is conducted from the perspective of a European equity investor with a portfolio of equities in each country. By employing the VaR decomposition technique, the correlation between a portfolio's equity and foreign exchange components is taken into account and portfolio foreign exchange risk is extracted from portfolio systematic risk. Our results uniquely demonstrate significant variation in foreign exchange risk in emerging markets.     

Exchange rate determination and inter-market order flow effects

The dependence of foreign exchange rates on order flow is investigated for four major exchange rate pairs, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, across sampling frequencies ranging from 5 min to 1 week. Strong explanatory power is discovered for all sampling frequencies. We also uncover cross-market order flow effects, e.g. GBP exchange rates are very strongly influenced by EUR/USD order flow. We proceed to investigate the predictive power of order flow for exchange rate changes, and it is shown that the order flow specifications reduce RMSEs relative to a random walk for all exchange rates at high-frequencies and for EUR/USD and USD/JPY at lower sampling frequencies.     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.