Trading Costs in Early Securities Markets: The Case of the Berlin Stock Exchange 1880-1910

Based on daily prices (amtliche Kurse) we estimate effective spreads of securities traded at the Berlin Stock Exchange in 1880, 1890, 1900 and 1910. Several extensions of the Roll measure are applied. We find surprisingly tight effective spreads for the historical data, comparable with similar measures of the MDAX and DAX at the end of the 20th century.     

Do managers listen to the market?

There are competing theories as to whether managers learn from stock prices. Dye and Sridhar (2002), for example, argue that capital markets can be better informed than the firm itself, while Roll [Roll, R., 1986, “The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers,” Journal of Business 59, 97–216.] argues managers may ignore market signals due to hubris. In this paper, we examine whether managers listen to the market in making major corporate investments, and whether agency costs and corporate governance mechanisms help explain managers' propensity to listen. We find that, on average, managers listen to the market: they are more likely to cancel investments when the market reacts unfavorably to the related announcement. Further, we find mixed evidence consistent with the notion that managers' propensity to listen is related to agency costs. We find that firms tend to listen to the market more when more of their shares are held by large blockholders, and when their CEOs have higher pay-performance sensitivities.     

Does Greater Firm‐Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?

Roll [1988] observes low R² statistics for common asset pricing models due to vigorous firm‐specific return variation not associated with public information. He concludes that this implies “either private information or else occasional frenzy unrelated to concrete information”[p. 56]. We show that firms and industries with lower market model R² statistics exhibit higher association between current returns and future earnings, indicating more information about future earnings in current stock returns. This supports Roll's first interpretation: higher firm‐specific return variation as a fraction of total variation signals more information‐laden stock prices and, therefore, more efficient stock markets.     

Event studies with a contaminated estimation period

Event studies are an important tool for empirical research in Finance. Since the seminal contribution of Fama et al. [Fama, E., Fisher, L., Jensen, M., Roll, R., 1969. The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review 10, 1–21], there have been many enhancements to the classical test methodology. Somewhat surprisingly, the estimation period has attracted less interest. It is usually routinely determined as a fixed window prior to the event announcement day. In this study, we propose a test that reduces the impact of potentially unrelated events during the estimation period. Our proposition is based on a two-state version of the classical market model as a return-generating process. We present standard specification and power analyses. The results highlight the importance of explicitly controlling for unrelated events occurring during the estimation window, especially in the presence of event-induced increase in return volatility.     

Statistical Properties of the Roll Serial Covariance Bid/Ask Spread Estimator

Exact small sample population moments of the standard serial covariance and variance estimators are derived under the assumptions of the Roll bid/ask spread model. Noise explains why serial covariance estimates are often positive in annual samples of daily and weekly returns. Small sample estimator bias partially explains why weekly estimates are more negative than daily estimates. Noise causes the Roll spread estimator to be severely biased by Jensen's inequality. The French-Roll adjusted variance estimator is unbiased but noisy. Empirical tests confirm the major implications.     

Speed of convergence to market efficiency: The role of ECNs

Chordia, Roll and Subrahmanyam (2005, CRS) estimate the speed of convergence to market efficiency based on short-horizon return predictability of the 150 largest NYSE firms. We extend CRS to a broad panel of NYSE stocks and are the first to examine the relation between electronic communication networks (ECNs) and the corresponding informational efficiency of prices. Overall, we confirm CRS's result that price adjustments to new information occur on average within 5–15 min for large NYSE stocks. We further show that it takes about 20 min longer for smaller firms to incorporate information into prices. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the speed of convergence to market efficiency is significantly related to the type of trading platform where orders are executed, even after controlling for relative order flows, trading costs, volatility, informational effects, trading conditions, market quality, institutional trading activity, and other firm-specific characteristics. Our findings provide direct answers and insights to issues raised in a recent SEC concept release document.     

A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations Among Stock Returns,Real Output,and Nominal Interest Rates

Previous research has documented a negative relation between common stock returns and inflation. Recently, Fama 3 and Geske and Roll 6 have argued that this relation results from a more fundamental one between real activity and expected inflation. Stock returns, they argue, signal changes in real activity, which in turn affect expected inflation. However, unlike Fama, Geske and Roll argue that changes in real activity result in changes in money supply growth, which in turn affect expected inflation. Empirical tests have analyzed separately each link in the proposed causal chain. In this article, we investigate simultaneously the relations among stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money supply changes using a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model. Our empirical results strongly support Geske and Roll's reversed causality model.     

MULTI-PERIOD CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODELS - A REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT

This paper considers the single-period Capital Asset Pricing Model and its shortcomings for corporate investment decisions. The conditions under which a multi-period version of the model can be developed are discussed. Previous notable attempts at developing such a model by a number of writers including Stapleton, Brennan, Bogue and Roll, Myers and Turnbull, and Fama are reviewed.     

Volatility,information, and double versus walrasian auction pricing in US and Japanese futures markets

This study empirically examines volatility in US and Japanese commodity futures markets. The US futures market, COMEX, is double auction with continuous trading, whereas the Japanese futures market, TOCOM, was Walrasian with discrete trading until April 1991. We find intraday volatility for gold futures contracts to be significantly higher on COMEX than TOCOM throughout the sample period and is attributable to differences in information flows and market micro-structures. Evidence is also provided that exchange volume conveys information both within and across markets, which is consistent with the French and Roll, 1986 (French, K.R., Roll, R., 1986. Stock return variances: The arrival of information and the reaction of traders. Journal of Financial Economics 17, 5–26) private-information based rational trading model. Finally, daily variance and autocorrelation estimates within COMEX are consistent with the extant literature on equity markets.     

Anomalies in Security Returns and the Specification of the Market Model

We examine the hypothesis originally advanced by Roll 12 that observed anomalies in excess returns can be explained by misspecification of the market model used to estimate systematic risk. We find substantial misspecifications in the model systematically related to size and period of listing of the securities in question. There is some evidence that these misspecifications are associated with systemic biases in measured betas used to construct excess returns.     

A dynamic model of active portfolio management with benchmark orientation

This paper studies optimal dynamic portfolios for investors concerned with the performance of their portfolios relative to a benchmark. Assuming that asset returns follow a multi-linear factor model similar to the structure of Ross (1976) [Ross, S., 1976. The arbitrage theory of the capital asset pricing model. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 342–360] and that portfolio managers adopt a mean tracking error analysis similar to that of Roll (1992) [Roll, R., 1992. A mean/variance analysis of tracking error. Journal of Portfolio Management, 18, 13–22], we develop a dynamic model of active portfolio management maximizing risk adjusted excess return over a selected benchmark. Unlike the case of constant proportional portfolios for standard utility maximization, our optimal portfolio policy is state dependent, being a function of time to investment horizon, the return on the benchmark portfolio, and the return on the investment portfolio. We define a dynamic performance measure which relates portfolio’s return to its risk sensitivity. Abnormal returns at each point in time are quantified as the difference between the realized and the model-fitted returns. Risk sensitivity is estimated through a dynamic matching that minimizes the total fitted error of portfolio returns. For illustration, we analyze eight representative mutual funds in the U.S. market and show how this model can be used in practice.     

CONVERTIBLE BOND VALUATION: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This research applies the options pricing model to the valuation of convertible bonds. A numeric algorithm is used to obtain theoretical values for a sample of 103 convertible bond issues. When market prices are compared with model valuations, the means are not significantly different, and 90 percent of model predictions are within 10 percent of market values. As a further test, the sample is divided on the basis of whether the model prices are (1) greater or (2) less than market prices. Returns are compared over a subsequent three-year holding period. The results indicate that without risk adjustment, the returns for the subsample identified by the model as “undervalued” (model prices exceed market prices) are significantly greater than returns for the subsample identified by the model as “overvalued” (market prices exceed model prices).     

Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole

We examine whether macroeconomic risk can explain momentum profits internationally. Neither an unconditional model based on the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) factors nor a conditional forecasting model based on lagged instruments provides any evidence that macroeconomic risk variables can explain momentum. In addition, momentum profits around the world are economically large and statistically reliable in both good and bad economic states. Further, these momentum profits reverse over 1‐ to 5‐year horizons, an action inconsistent with existing risk‐based explanations of momentum.     

Stock Splits,Volatility Increases,and Implied Volatilities

A test of the efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, relative to post-split increases in the volatility of common stocks, is presented. The Black-Scholes and Roll option pricing formulas are used to examine the behavior of implied standard deviations (ISDs) around split announcement and ex-dates. Comparisons with a control group of stocks find no relative increase in ISDs of stocks announcing splits. However, a relative increase is detected at the ex-date. Therefore, the joint hypothesis that 1) the Black-Scholes and Roll formulas are true and 2) the CBOE is efficient can be rejected.     

LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM CAUSAL RELATIONS BETWEEN DIVIDENDS AND STOCK PRICES: A TEST OF LINTNER'S DIVIDEND MODEL AND THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF STOCK PRICES

In this paper we test the joint implications for the intertemporal behavior of stock prices and dividends expressed in the Lintner dividend model and the present value model of stock prices. We use macro data corresponding to quarterly S&P 500 index prices and dividends for January 1930–December 1990. The methodology used is the error correction model (ECM), which allows testing for long-term and short-term relations between the two variables. Results from the ECM indicate that a long-term equilibrium relation exists between dividends and stock prices, and that an error correction mechanism is at work when a disequilibrium exits between the two variables. Stock prices and dividends also influence each other in the short term. Finally, the results show that dividends and stock prices exhibit a contemporaneous causal relation.     

Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices

The Black-Scholes option pricing model, modified for dividend payments, is used to calculate jointly implied stock prices and implied standard deviations. A comparison of the implied stock prices with observed stock prices reveals that the implied prices contain information regarding equilibrium stock prices that is not fully reflected in observed stock prices. The implications of this finding are discussed.     

Measuring portfolio performance and the empirical content of asset pricing models

Recent work by Richard Roll has challenged the worth of portfolio performance measures based on the capital asset pricing model. This paper demonstrates that Roll's conclusions are due to his focusing on a ‘truly’ ex-ante efficient index. Using a choice and information theoretic framework, we show that an appropriate index is efficient relative to the probabilities assessed by the ‘market’. Residual analyses and portfolio performance tests, using such an index, yield meaningful results for a wide class of information structures. Roll's primary criticisms, however, relate to tests of the asset pricing model itself. We argue that these criticisms are vastly overstated.     

Valuation of American options on foreign currency

Pricing models for American call and put options on foreign currency are derived herein. These models are used to investigate the efficiency of the market for foreign currency options. The evidence presented here indicates that market prices for these options deviate substantially from their corresponding model prices. In addition, it is shown that a hedging strategy executed at transaction prices can be used to translate an observed deviation of market from model prices into positive excess profits. However, these profits are eliminated if the strategy is executed at bid and offer prices.     

The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971–80. The Fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world. Using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation, our data provide consistent support for the Geske and Roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal (negative) revisions in inflationary expectations. Finally, a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries.     

Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics

We model liquidity in housing markets. The model provides a simple characterization for the joint process of prices, sales, and inventory. We compare the implications of the model to certain properties of housing markets. The model can generate the large price changes and the positive correlation between prices and sales that we see in the data. Unlike the data, prices are negatively autocorrelated and high inventory predicts price appreciation. We investigate several amendments to the model. Informational frictions show promise.