Portfolio Optimization under Lower Partial Risk Measures

Portfolio management using lower partial risk (downside risk) measures is attracting more attention of practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to review important characteristics of these riskmeasures and conduct simulation using four alternative measures, lower semi-variance, lower semi-absolute deviation, first order below targetrisk and conditional value-at-risk.We will show that these risk measures are useful to control downside risk whenthe distribution of assets is non-symmetric. Further, we will propose a computational scheme to resolve the difficultyassociated with solving a large dense linear programming problems resulting from these models. We will demonstrate that this method can in fact solve problems consisting of10⁴ assets and 10⁵ scenarios within a practical amount of CPU time.     

Systematic Risk and Empirical Research

We show here that risky asset returns generating processes stated in terms of factors which include both accounting and non-accounting based measures of risk (e.g. book to market ratios) imply, under fairly standard regularity conditions, that the Sharpe-Lintner-Black asset pricing model beta is a 'sufficient' statistic in the sense that it captures all important attributes of the returns generating process in a single number. We then derive the parametric relationship between betas based on inefficient index portfolios and betas based on the market or tangency portfolio. We demonstrate that the relationship between risky asset expected returns and betas computed on the basis of inefficient index portfolios is both consistent with the predictions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the multi-factor asset pricing models of Fama and French (1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996). The 'trick' is to realise that inefficient index portfolios are composed of the market portfolio and a collection of inefficient but self financing 'kernel' or 'arbitrage' portfolios. It then follows that there is a perfect linear cross sectional relationship between risky asset expected returns, betas based on inefficient index portfolios and the arbitrage portfolios. Hence, if we happen to stumble across variables that span the same subspace as the vectors representing the arbitrage portfolios, it is easy to create the illusion that risky asset expected returns depend on variables other than 'beta'.     

系统性金融风险测度方法及对中国的启示

学术界在反思已有测度方法为何没能对危机提出及时预警的同时,还在努力尝试发展更为有效的新测度方法.尽管此类研究在实践应用中往往不尽如人意,但由此拓展对系统性金融风险的更新和更深刻的认识,对于构建牢固金融体系仍具有重要的启示作用.     

现代金融体系下系统性风险的演变与防范

金融市场流动性的逆转以及金融机构所具有的高杠杆率、高关联度特征,共同催生了新的系统性金融风险隐患,使得现代金融体系的风险产生和传递完全呈现出新的特征。监管当局需要研究现代金融体系中更为广泛的、复杂的系统性风险的触发点,加强对金融市场中系统性风险的认识和防范,协调宏观审慎管理和微观审慎管理,加强货币政策的金融稳定职能。     

'Smoothing' Manifestations in Fourth Quarter Results of Operations: Some Empirical Evidence

'Smoothing' Manifestations in Fourth Quarter Results of Operations: Some Empirical Evidence
The subject of smoothing of annual income numbers has occupied a good deal of the accounting literature. The finding of most studies was that managers of firms did behave as if they intended to impart a smoother trend to accounting earnings. The availability of quarterly reports provides us with an opportunity to gain insights into the timing of smoothing decisions. The paper tests the hypothesis that the observed first three quarters' results trigger actions by management during the fourth quarter that appear as smoothing behaviour. The findings indicate that the manifestations of end-of-year actions by managers are consistent with the possible attempt on their part to alter fourth quarter reported results so as to offset extreme deviations of the first three quarters' reported numbers from a given, predefined, 'normal' trend presumably deemed by managers to be desirable to report.     

Intuitive Choice of Cooperative Sharing Mechanisms for Joint Cost Savings: Some Empirical Results

Cooperative sharing arrangements are common phenomena in modern business. Joint ventures are used in a variety of industries, where participants are provided the advantages inter alia of risk sharing, pooling of economic and managerial resources, and synergy. An important issue in any cooperative venture is the mechanism for sharing the common rewards of participation. While some studies have looked at actual ventures, the issue has not been explored empirically when alternative sharing arrangements were also under consideration and the practical considerations of 'fairness', 'reasonableness', and 'understandability' were also present. This study examines sharing arrangements proposed by neutral observers under experimental conditions to a potential cooperative sharing arrangement where these practical considerations are important. The results indicate that the more complex literature solutions were approximated by some neutral observers intuitively, but the more pragmatic literature solutions were chosen by most observers.     

会计信息与系统风险的相关性研究——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

本文应用沪深A股制造业2001~2009年度相关数据,基于PARKS面板数据模型实证检验了会计信息与系统风险的相关性,剖析了我国资本市场反常流动比率、不良杠杆组合及股利政策"异象"的实质所在,据此提出了基于系统风险影响因子构建会计风险报告框架、完善企业会计准则及强化资本市场监管等政策建议。     

Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates

This paper investigates the risk structure of interest rates using pure discount bonds. The most striking feature of our estimates of default-risk premia is the resemblance of their time profile to the theoretical time profile obtained by Merton (1974) .     

公司治理与上市公司系统风险关系实证研究——基于中国上市公司的证据

利用面板数据模型,选择合理的公司治理和系统风险代表指标,以我国上市公司为案例实证研究公司治理与上市公司系统风险的关系,结果表明,上市公司的公司治理水平与其系统风险具有显著关系。     

Spectral Risk Measures: Properties and Limitations

Spectral risk measures (SRMs) are risk measures that take account of user risk-aversion, but to date there has been little guidance on the choice of utility function underlying them. This paper addresses this issue by examining alternative approaches based on exponential and power utility functions. A number of problems are identified with both types of spectral risk measure. The general lesson is that users of spectral risk measures must be careful to select utility functions that fit the features of the particular problems they are dealing with, and should be especially careful when using power SRMs.

The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans

We verify the existence of a relation between loss given default rate (LGDR) and macroeconomic conditions by examining 11,649 bank loans concerning the Italian market. Using both the univariate and multivariate analyses, we pinpoint diverse macroeconomic explanatory variables for LGDR on loans to households and SMEs. For households, LGDR is more sensitive to the default-to-loan ratio, the unemployment rate, and household consumption. For SMEs, LGDR is influenced by the total number of employed people and the GDP growth rate. These findings corroborate the Basel Committee’s provision that LGDR quantification process must identify distinct downturn conditions for each supervisory asset class.