THE FUTURE OF EEC DAIRY EXPORTS TO THE LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF LONG-RANGE PROJECTIONS AND MODEL STUDIES

From recent projection studies it can be concluded that future dairy exports by the EEC to the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase. The self-sufficiency ratio for dairy products in the EEC will increase because of strong, technologically induced, growth of production potential. On the one hand, surplus production in the EEC will be difficult to curtail as the unfavourable conditions of the general economy will impede outmigration of inputs. Import demand, on the other hand, is projected to increase as many populations will be moving into stages of higher growth of income. Thus, input restrictions of agriculture in industrialised countries may be unnecessary. In this paper some agricultural economic aspects of the implied trade relationships are discussed. It is concluded that LDCs are not likely to benefit from gains of trade as predicted by theory of free trade and international specialisation. From projections by model studies, however, no consensus emerged. Projection and model studies seem hardly suited to provide insight in the effects of international trade under conditions of imperfect competition.     

THE EEC SHEEPMEAT MARKET AND VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINT AGREEMENTS

Voluntary export restraint agreements are an increasingly common measure used to restrict international trade in particular commodities. They have been applied to the EEC sheepmeat market since 1980 as part of the Common Agricultural Policy. In this paper, theoretical implications of voluntary export restraints are analysed and compared with alternative trade barriers, such as variable levies. The effects of the various trade barriers which the EEC could impose on sheepmeat imports are quantified using an econometric model of the world sheepmeat market. From the exporters' viewpoint, voluntary export restraints are shown to be the least harmful form of providing protection against imports into the EEC.     

The dynamics of household beef consumption in Cameroon

Recent changes in economic conditions have introduced notable changes in household beef consumption patterns in Cameroon. While consumers are concerned about the short- and long-run effects of these factors on beef consumption habits, policy makers are more worried about the appropriate period necessary for households to make complete adjustments in consumption since this information is vital for planning production. Static and dynamic demand frameworks involving the Nerlovian partial adjustment (PA) model are used to capture the dynamic nature of beef consumption parameters. Maximum likelihood estimates of the PA model reveal that the conditioning variables explain 79% of the variation in beef consumption. Income, previous consumption, own-price and prices of fish and pork are jointly important in explaining beef consumption habits. Beef is a normal good with pork and fish as substitutes and chicken as a complement. Long-run price and income elasticities are greater than but not significantly different from their short-run values, suggesting that adjustment in consumption is fast with about 80% of the difference between actual and ‘desired’ consumption being completed in about 2 years. Projections show that demand for beef will reach 109620 t by the year 2000. giving an incremental total and per capita demand of 31 730 tons and 1.84 kg, respectively.     

European land use and resources: An analysis of future EEC demands

This article examines the role of grassland and arable enterprises in Europe and evaluates the land base of the EEC-10 region for these enterprises. Land evaluation is especially important in the context of future land use developments and helps also in focusing on comparative advantage in agriculture. The article examines land use development in Europe with special reference to land use change, fertilizer use trends and crop and animal productivity. In addition prospective demands for land for the major uses are examined through an assessment of commodity demand projections. Based on these projections a land use scenario for 2000 is postulated for the EEC area.     

A VOLUNTARY POLICY FOR REDUCING EEC MILK PRODUCTION

This paper describes and demonstrates a policy for reducing EEC milk production. The policy is a combination of (real) price pressure for all milk producers coupled with optional direct income support aimed at producers with small to medium herds. The method of calculating and paying the income aid encourages producers with small/medium-sized herds to reduce the size of their herds. If the majority of small-scale producers participate it is estimated that the policy would rapidly improve the balance between Community milk production and demand and lead to considerable budgetary savings.     

Some neglected issues in food demand analysis: retail-level demand, health information and product quality

Food demand analysis is dominated by the econometric estimation of demand systems based on aggregate market data and steady progress has been made in analytical techniques. Yet some issues have been neglected in food demand analysis which are crucial for understanding recent consumption trends in industrialised countries. Three of these issues are dealt with here: analysis of food demand at the retail level; influence of health information on food demand; and importance of product quality for food demand. It is shown that answers to important questions in these areas can be given when large and unconventional data sets are used.     

Household Food Consumption in a Developing Economy:

The primary objective of this paper is to describe household rice consumption patterns in Nigeria with evidence from Imo State, determine the nature, magnitude and direction of income, price and cross price elasticities of demand, and examine the factors influencing household rice consumption. A budget survey of 50 randomly selected rural and urban households in Imo State, Nigeria, interviewed. The survey was repeated for 14 months between November 1984 and January 1986, providing the data used for analysis. There were significant differences between urban and rural household per capita daily rice consumption. Income (expenditure) elasticity of demand was greater than unity, and decreased, as expected, from low to high income groups. Household income was the most important determinant of food consumption. The implications of these findings for food and international trade policy are discussed.     

Testing for pre‐committed quantities of Australian meat demand

Pre‐committed consumption represents the portion of demand that is determined by non‐price and non‐income factors. This study uses quarterly data to estimate a Generalised Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS) to test for the existence of pre‐committed meat consumption in Australia. Two specifications are estimated to evaluate the impact of seasonal and time trend factors on pre‐committed demand. Evidence is found for the existence of pre‐committed chicken consumption when jointly estimated with seasonal and time trend factors. Results support improved demand modelling of Australian meat consumption using the GAIDS and provide insights into how Australian meat demand is affected by price, expenditures, pre‐committed consumption, seasonality, and trends.     

Food Consumption Patterns and Nutrition in Urban Java Households: The Discriminatory Power of some Socioeconomic Variables

Food consumption patterns are undergoing substantial change in many countries as economic development proceeds. The trend is a move away from traditional cereals towards higher-value and higher-protein foods. Explaining such changes only in terms of traditional economic variables can lead to biased estimates of income effects and perhaps biased projections of food demand. Household survey data from Indonesia are used to measure the importance of several socioeconomic variables in explaining differences in household food consumption patterns and nutrition. Household expenditure and the level of women's education are shown to be the most influential in this explanation.     

Advertising Expenditures and the Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages

The theory of consumer behavior is applied to the estimation of a demand svstem. Monthly data on alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, liquor, soft dhnks) from the province of Ontario in Canada are analyzed. Before estimating the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS), unit root and cointegration tests are implemented. Budget shares, per capita advertising expenditures, real total expenditure, prices and per capita consumption are found to be non-stationary. The budget share, the advertising expenditures, the prices and the real total expenditure are cointegrated for each beverage. Own and cross-price elasticities, income elasticities and own and cross-advertising elasticities are calculated from the estimated or the demand system. Based on own-price elasticities and income elasticities, alcohol consumption is consistent with the law of demand and the products analyzed are normal goods. The estimation of income and advertising effects is important for analyzing the need for, and the effectiveness of, potential control policies. The advertising elasticities are small but statistically significant. This suggests that advertising may promote alcoholic beverage consumption. The estimated inelastic demands for beer and wine suggest that the primary purpose of high excise taxes levied by the Federal and Provincial governments is to raise government revenues and not to discourage consumption.     

The demand for meat and fish in Spain: Urban and rural areas

The aim of the paper is to explain to what extent meat consumption patterns in Spain are different in rural and urban areas and which are the factors explaining differences and similarities. A demand system using cross-section data from the latest Spanish National Survey has been estimated. Unit values have been used instead of market prices and price and quality effects have been obtained. The main conclusion is that meat consumption patterns in urban and rural areas are not really different as regards economic factors. Some small income and price effect differences have been found, specially for fresh pork and fish, Responses to changes in income and price are higher for fresh pork consumption in rural areas and for fish in urban areas.     

结构方程模型森林康养消费需求因素分析

以计划行为理论为基础进行设计问卷,结合实地调研与在线问卷调查数据,运用结构方程模型研究现阶段中国居民森林康养消费需求的影响机制。结果表明:中国森林康养产业普及程度较浅,深度的森林康养内容认知与发展进展很浅薄;森林康养消费需求会促使居民的消费行为,而态度、知觉控制会显著正向影响居民的消费需求,态度、规范与知觉控制之间影响显著。因此,应设计多层次森林康养产品,鼓励森林康养养老,助力脱贫攻坚;提升居民参与森林康养的客观能力,奠定消费战略的基础;研究康养理论,推行康养理念,设计康养服务产品;政企协力推进,构建政-企-森-居-社会协调发展新模式,以便促进森林康养良好发展。     

Seasonal Patterns and Regional Preferences in Japanese Household Demand for Seafood

This study addresses the little analyzed Japanese consumer demand for seafood. A demand system approach is used to analyze demand for a group of seafood products that make up the representative household's total expenditures on seafood for at-home consumption. The linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (U/AIDS) is applied to monthly data from 1980 through 1989 on the demand for seafood for three representative households: the average Japanese household, northern Japanese household, and southern Japanese household. Estimation results highlight effects of seasonality on demand for various seafood products; how seasonality effects defer by region; and differences in demand elasticities for seafood products both during the marketing year and across regions. Results from the analysis of the nationally representative household are contrasted with results from regionally representative house-holds to determine implications of viewing Japan as a single, homogeneous market.     

Have health claims affected demand for fats and meats in Canada?

Chronic illness is a global epidemic and places significant economic and social burdens on societies. Research has shown that a healthy diet can be used to mitigate or significantly reduce the risk of many chronic illnesses. Health authorities around the world have begun regulating health claims on foods to encourage the consumption of healthy foods. However, the “ex post” efficacy of health claims regulations on consumers demand for healthy foods has not been assessed. The demand for fats and meats in Canada is estimated using a linear-approximate almost ideal demand system. The results indicate health claims decreased unhealthy food demand between 1.41% and 7.10% and increased healthy food demand between 1.95% and 8.50%.     

Separability in farm-household economics: an experiment with linear programming

The assumption of separability between farm-household production and consumption facilitates analysis, but entails several important restrictions. The implications of assuming separability are discussed here in relation to the modelling of a representative Tongan farm-household. Econometric estimation of household demand is coupled with a linear programming (LP) model of farm-household production. When analysing consumer demand, separable farm-household economics is undoubtedly preferable to ignoring the production/consumption linkages entirely. However, the restrictions which must be imposed on the production side of the separable model are such that a realistic LP solution is unlikely to be obtained. This is likely to be a major deterrent to adopting the separable approach for studies in which the main focus is on production rather than consumption.     

Does Food Safety Information Impact U.S. Meat Demand?

A theoretical model of consumer response to publicized food safety information on meat demand is developed with an empirical application to U.S. meat consumption. Evidence is found for the existence of pre-committed levels of consumption, seasonal factors, time trends, and contemporaneous own- and cross-commodity food safety concerns. The average demand response to food safety concerns is small, especially in comparison to price effects, and to previous estimates of health related issues. This small average effect masks periods of significantly larger responses corresponding with prominent food safety events, but these larger impacts are short-lived with no apparent food safety lagged effects on demand.     

我国城镇居民水产品消费影响因素分析

本文通过建立城镇居民水产品消费的双对数需求模型,考察了居民收入水平、水产品自身价格和相关商品价格对水产品需求量的影响.模型结果表明,影响城镇居民水产品消费的因素主要是居民人均收入水平和水产品价格,且前者与水产品人均消费量呈正相关,后者与水产品人均消费量呈负相关.     

A TRADE AND WELFARE ANALYSIS OF UK SHEEPMEAT EXPORTS WITHIN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY

A spatial equilibrium model with transfer and foreign exchange sectors is used to investigate certain aspects of the EEC sheepmeat regime. In particular, the effects on intra-Community trade and social welfare of the variable levy on UK exports and a green/spot rate differential for sterling are identified. Alternative policy measures aimed at increasing trade are examined and the conclusions are then applied to the regime as it operates in practice.     

Household food consumption in Turkey

This paper analyses Turkish household food consumption, usingdata from the 2003 Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. A completedemand system is estimated taking into account demographic differencesand zero consumption. The highest expenditure elasticity isfound for the meat and meat products group, suggesting thatits demand will grow faster than the demand for other productsas the economy develops and income increases. Demand is moreprice-responsive for fats and oils and non-alcoholic beveragesthan all other food products. Regional and seasonal differencesand socio-demographic factors are as important as the conventionaleconomic variables in explaining observed differences in thehousehold's food consumption patterns in Turkey.     

The Dynamics of Individuals' Fat Consumption

Consumers are increasingly aware of the link between their lifestyle choices and the risk of noncommunicable diseases. A dynamic approach incorporating this linkage in food demand is developed, where consumers maximize utility over time by choosing fat intake to control their cumulative fat level. The resulting dynamic indirect utility function and household data on meat, fish, and dairy consumption are used to estimate a censored demand system. Results show that consumers consciously adjust, but not instantaneously, their cumulative fat level. Highly educated households have a faster rate of adjustment of cumulative fat. When cumulative fat level increases, consumers shift to dairy or white meat from red meat products.