时代呼唤生态建筑

如今 ,灵山绿水间 ,年事已高却依然矍烁的老者 ,悠然于茅屋草舍前 ,颇得山野之乐的动人画面已渐渐远离我们的生活。取代它的是高楼林立、汽车飞驰的繁华都市。生活在现代都市中 ,尽享快速交通、中央空调、自控照明等现代科技文明的都市人 ,在终日与数字信息、网络等尖端技术繁忙应战之后 ,他们在做些什么 ?有人选择了酒吧舞厅 ,有人选择蹦极、飞翔……他们用这些方式或来宣泄精神的压力与焦虑 ,或来最近距离地接近自然 ,我们不禁要问 ,现代工业文明除了给现代人带来财富之外 ,还带来了什么 ?当我们虔敬地仰望古希腊的太阳城时 ,我们不能不为…     

Decision making in the multiproduct firm: Adaptability and firm organization

This study presents an explicit model of the choice process by which decision makers within a multiproduct firm would optimally allocate their firm-specific inputs. The first-order conditions of the model indicate the kind of information required for efficient transfer of these inputs. Transfer within the firm can be more efficiently accomplished than contracting over markets. Consequently, one may demonstrate the superior efficiency of the multiproduct firm over a comparable group of single-product firms independent of any production externalities. Further, this superior efficiency results only if the central administration of the firm controls the exchange of these inputs.     

工程项目经理选聘决策数学模型研究

项目经理是工程承包公司总部派驻工地的全权代理人,如何选聘项目经理本质上是公司总部与项目经理之间的一个博弈问题。本文在Wilson(1969)、Spence和Zeckhauser(1971)以及Poss（1973）共同提出的博弈模型基础上,根据项目经理对风险的喜好程度及其主观效用函数的不同,建立了相应的数学模型,即风险中性者模型、风险厌恶型模型和风险喜好型模型,并对模型参数的选取与选定作了说明。     

Decision making in mergers: An application of the analytic hierarchy process

A critical element in the success or failure of an acquisition outcome is the ability to identify compatible acquisitions. This study focuses on the operational problem of effectively ranking a set of potential acquisition candidates against a multivariate set of attributes. The paper illustrates the usefulness of the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology in this regard. The model is fairly easy to use and is flexible enough to permit the decision maker to consider multiple viewpoints and multiple attributes that may be qualitative or quantitative in nature. The suitability of the model is illustrated by applying it to a hypothetical example.     

Decision making in the beer game and supply chain performance

The beer game has been used to emphasize, investigate, and analyze supply chain inefficiencies as well as the effect of decision makers’ biases. This paper investigates the short- and long-run performance in the beer distribution game by analyzing Sterman’s (Manag Sci 35(3): 321–339, 1989) model that simulates decision-making. In this model, the system may have chaotic behavior depending on the heuristics used by decision makers. We investigate how quickly the system reaches a steady state (if at all). It is known that ignoring supply line (outstanding orders) leads to the bullwhip effect in experimental research. Among other results, we show that the short-term performance of a supply chain is not a predictor of the long-term performance even when decision makers fully recognize outstanding orders. Results of the simulation and practical implications are discussed.     

加工车间设计方案决策

介绍了湖南某拖拉机厂技术改造项目,加工车间设计。通过对加工车间工艺平面布置的设计与决策,打破了常规,提出了适合我国汽车、拖拉机的箱体加工等零件的加工车间设计方案和一个新的概念──变型制造方案。该方案可以重组,应变快,能进能退,几乎没有投资风险。     

Decision making under risk in Deal or No Deal

We analyse the choices of 399 contestants in the Australian version of the television game show Deal or No Deal. We calculate risk aversion bounds for each contestant, revealing considerable heterogeneity. We then estimate a structural stochastic choice model that captures the dynamic decision problem faced by contestants. To address individual heterogeneity, we nest the dynamic problem within the settings of both a random effects and a random coefficients probit model. Our structural model produces plausible estimates of risk aversion, confirms the role of individual heterogeneity and suggests that a model of stochastic choice is indeed appropriate. We find mixed evidence of greater risk aversion by females. We also examine generalizations to expected utility theory, finding that the rank‐dependent utility model adds non‐negligible explanatory power and indicates optimism in probability weighting. Finally, we test, but are unable to confirm, the existence of an endowment effect for lotteries. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method

In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.     

谈基于事实的决策方法

结合ISO9000族标准,阐述基于事实的决策方法,对企业质量管理者的科学决策提出了具体的措施.     

Incorporating support vector machines with multiple criteria decision making for financial crisis analysis

Feature selection is an essential pre-processing technique in data mining that eliminates redundant or unrepresentative attributes and improves the performance of classifiers. However, a classifier with different feature selection approaches results in diverse outcomes. Thus, determining how to integrate feature selection methods and yield an appropriate feature set is an issue worth further study. Based on ensemble learning, this investigation develops a SVMMCDM (support vector machines with multiple criteria decision making) model that employs various feature selection techniques as data preprocessing schemes and then uses SVM for financial crisis prediction. The study uses MCDM to determine the most suitable feature selection mechanism when many performance criteria are considered. After the feature selection mechanism has been determined, the study decomposes the SVM to obtain support vectors and predicted labels which are then fed into a decision tree to generate rules. The numerical results for the ex-ante and ex-post periods relative to the financial tsunami show that the proposed SVMMCDM model is an effective way to predict a financial crisis and can provide useful rules for decision makers.     

Decision making framework for tender evaluation and contractor selection in public organizations with risk considerations

Selecting the best construction contractor plays a critical role in the success of any construction project. Moreover, in the public sector, the traditional lowest bid method is still broadly used and contracts are often awarded based on the lowest price. However, this method has been criticized by many researchers because even if it might guarantee the lowest cost for a project, it does not guarantee the maximum value in terms of time and quality. More particularly, the risk exposure during the tendering process is usually very high and the success of the construction project is strongly related to managing this risk in an appropriate way. Therefore, the selection of the most appropriate contractor should be based on a set of criteria such as technical capability, financial stability, risk, safety, etc., in addition to cost in order to avoid problems that may happen after the contract is awarded. This study aims therefore to develop a decision making framework (DMF) to assist the public organizations in selecting the most appropriate construction contractor(s). The proposed DMF uses a combination of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools and fuzzy logic theory and consists of three stages. In the first stage, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to reduce the number of contractors, based on multiple criteria, such that only efficient contractors are considered. In the second stage, the risk factors that are related to each efficient contractor are identified and assessed using a fuzzy logic based approach. Finally, in the third stage, a bi-objective mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed to select the best contractor(s) based on cost and risk and to determine the optimal quantity of work to be assigned to each selected contractor. Indeed, the proposed approach considers the multiple award contract case in which more than one contractor can be selected to share the amount of work to be performed. We assume that prior to using the proposed DMF, a pre-qualification study is conducted using multiple criteria chosen by the public organization, and only pre-qualified contractors are included in the first stage of the proposed DMF. Moreover, a case study inspired from the contractor selection process in a public organization in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Evaluation of the treatment options for COVID-19 patients using generalized hesitant fuzzy- multi criteria decision making techniques

The breakout of the pandemic COVID-19 has affected numerous countries and territories worldwide. As COVID-19 specific medicines yet to be invented, at present the treatment is case specific, hence identification and evaluation of different prevalent treatment options based on various criteria and attributes are very important not only from the point of view of present pandemic but also for futuristic pandemic preparedness. The present study focuses on identifying, evaluation and ranking of treatment options using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In this regard, the existing literature, doctors and scientist were interviewed to know the current treatment options in vogue and the scale of their importance with respect to the criteria. The criteria taken are side effect, regime cost, treatment duration, plasma stability, plasma turnover, time of suppression, ease of application, drug-drug interaction, compliance, fever, pneumonia, intensive care, organ failure, macrophage activation syndrome, hemophagocytic syndrome, pregnancy, kidney problem, age. This study extended Hesitant Fuzzy Set (HFS) to Generalized Hesitant Fuzzy Sets (GHFS). Generalized Hesitant Pentagonal Fuzzy Number (GHPFN) is developed. The properties of GHPFN are demonstrated. Two types of GHPFN has been described. The GHPFN (2nd type) along with MCDM tool Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) has been applied to rank the treatment options. The result of the study ranked ‘Hydroxychloroquine’ as the first alternative followed by, ‘Plasma Exchange’, ‘Tocilizumab’, ‘Remdesivir’ and ‘Favipravir’. To check the robustness and steadiness of the proposed methodology, comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis has been conducted.     

基于熵权分析的大型公共工程项目决策

文章分析了影响大型公共工程项目决策的各种因素,建立了用熵权的方法对诸因素进行综合评判的数学模型,给出了应用步骤,并通过实例分析,得出了影响大型公共工程项目最主要的因素可分为3个层次的结论。     

对第三方物流的决策因素及决策形式的探讨

高效的第三方物流活动在增强企业核心竞争力、提高增值服务水平、降低物流成本、优化内外资源等方面都起着不可替代的作用。但第三方物流这些作用能否得以充分发挥很大程度上取决于第三方物流供应商的水平和实力,而目前现有的评价选择方法又有一定局限,所以能否建造有效的第三方物流供应商的选择模型、能否选择合适的第三方物流供应商成为企业物流业务外包成败的关键,这也是很有现实意义又亟待解决的问题。     

Decision theory for continuous observations: Minimax solutions

This paper is concerned with the existence of minimax solutions in a decision theoretic model for continuous observations as described inIrle, Schmitz, [1914]. There is given a result on the existence of minimax solutions with constant time observation, followed by a discussion of the conditions which are used to prove the above statement.