The effect of a rating change announcement on bond price

This paper examines the behavior of corporate bond prices during the period surrounding the announcement of a rating change. We find some evidence of price change during the period from 18 to 7 months before the rating change is announced. We find no evidence of any reaction during the 6 months prior to the rating change. We also find little reaction, if any, during the month of the change or for 6 months after the change. This evidence contradicts the recent findings of Katz and Grier and Katz.     

SHORT-TERM BONUS PLAN ADOPTION AND STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE—PROXY AND INDUSTRY EFFECTS: A NOTE

This note extends previous studies and further examines the market reaction to short-term executive compensation plan introduction by using a larger sample and controling for proxy and industry effects. Results indicate significantly positive abnormal returns not due to proxy or industry effects in the four months before adoption and the month of adoption. The price adjustment is not instantaneous. Firms adopting short-term compensation plans also experience significantly positive abnormal returns ten months after announcement, associated with positive unexpected earnings in that month.     

Short sales, price pressure, and the stock price response to convertible bond calls

The announcement of a convertible bond call is associated with an average contemporaneous abnormal stock price decline of 1.75% and an ensuing price recovery in the conversion period. A price fall and the subsequent recovery suggest price pressure as the explanation for the announcement effect. However, in general the option to convert is not exercised early and hence, the increase in the number of shares outstanding does not occur at the announcement date. Instead, this paper argues and provides evidence that hedging-induced short selling causes at least part of the short-run price pressure.     

PRICE AND VOLUME EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CREATION OF STANDARD & POOR'S MIDCAP INDEX

In this paper we explore price and volume effects associated with the 1991 creation of Standard & Poor's MidCap 400 index. Prior work on changes in the composition of existing indices finds a significant price response to the announcement. Various authors link the effect to price pressure, information, an outwardly shifting demand curve for securities, and the increased attention that comes with inclusion in an index. Using event study methodology, we find significant price and volume effects during the two weeks leading up to the Standard & Poor's announcement, but no significant effect in the two-day interval around the event. Apparently, information leakage and/or anticipation preceded the creation of the index. The price run-up is permanent since the positive abnormal returns leading up through the announcement are not associated with significantly negative abnormal returns after the announcement. In addition, MidCap stocks significantly outperform the market during the fifty-two weeks following the announcement. Using cross-sectional regressions, we show that these prior-period abnormal returns are positively related to abnormal volume and institutional holdings. We also find that firms trading over-the-counter had larger price run-ups than NYSE or AMEX firms.     

An Investigation of the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Stock Returns Surrounding Insurer Rating Changes

We find that stock returns move in the direction of insurer rating changes in the 12‐month period prior to the announcement. There is an additional stock price response following the announcement of a downgrade, but no response to upgrade announcements. The reaction to a downgrade is more pronounced when it involves a smaller insurer, when it spans multiple levels, or when it is a threshold downgrade. Returns are significantly more negative during the 12 months leading up to a downgrade announcement during the financial crisis (2008 and 2009) compared to other sample years.     

In-the-Money Warrant Extensions

This paper examines the warrant price and stock price reactions to the extension of the expiration date of in-the-money warrants. The warrant prices increase significantly in response to the announcement, consistent with option pricing theory. Shareholders experience no significant abnormal returns at the announcement, contrary to the conjecture that an extension will transfer wealth from shareholders. There is support for the idea that firms extend warrant life because the existing assets' cash flow obviates the need for additional financing. The data show that both the stocks and the warrants perform poorly in the month following the extension announcement.     

Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation

While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of −1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000–2008 are more than twice as negative (−4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond investor base from long-only investors towards convertible arbitrage funds. These funds buy convertibles and short the underlying stocks, causing downward price pressure. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the differences in announcement returns between the Traditional Investor period (1984–1999) and the Arbitrage period (2000–September 2008) disappear when controlling for arbitrage-induced short selling associated with a range of hedging strategies. Post-issuance stock returns are also in line with the arbitrage explanation. Average announcement effects of convertibles issued during the Global Financial Crisis are even more negative (−9.12%), due to a combination of short-selling price pressure and issuer, issue, and macroeconomic characteristics associated with these offerings.     

Preliminary Evidence on Takeover Target Returns in Spain: A Note

This paper measures the share price returns to Spanish takeover targets over the period 1990 to 1994. Using several estimation and testing methods, we show that target shareholders gain significant abnormal returns in the announcement period. In the first part of the year before the announcement period, firms that become targets do not show significant abnormal returns, though there is some significant upturn in the two months before the bid.     

An analysis of gains and losses to shareholders of foreign bidding companies engaged in cross-border acquisitions into the United Kingdom, 1986–1991

In this paper the gains and losses to shareholders of 71 foreign companies which made takeover bids for companies listed in the United Kingdom during the 1986–1991 period are analysed. The average abnormal return during the month of the bid announcement was positive, although not statistically significant. However, both prior to and sub-sequent to the bid announcement month, the overseas bidders earned highly significant negative abnormal returns. The cumulative abnormal returns over the five month period following the bid announcement were-4.77% with the index model and -9.79% with the market model. Further analysis established that Continental European companies performed significantly worse than American bidders. In addition, large companies and companies bidding for large targets, performed significantly better than the other bidders.     

How do financial analysts interpret industrial firms' corporate refocusing announcements?

This study investigates how analysts perceive the effect of corporate refocusing announcements on UK industrial firms' future earnings by examining current-year and one-year-ahead earnings forecast revisions, current-year target price revisions and earnings forecast errors in the five years surrounding a refocusing announcement year. The results reveal that analysts adjust their earnings forecasts downward in a refocusing announcement year and the following two years, predicting that operating performance in the post-refocusing period is likely to decline relative to their former earnings forecasts. Secondly, there is no evidence that analysts issue biased earnings forecasts after refocusing announcements or that their forecasts appear less accurate. Thirdly, they adjust their earnings forecasts downward in a refocusing announcement year with downward market movement. However, they do not similarly adjust their earnings forecast upward with upward market movement. The magnitude of downward adjustments exceeds that of upward adjustments. They also adjust current-year target price forecasts downward with downward market movement in the year prior to a refocusing announcement.     

Informed Trading in Corporate Bonds Prior to Earnings Announcements

This paper examines the information content of corporate bond trading prior to earnings announcements using data from both NAIC and TRACE. We find that the direction of pre‐announcement bond trading is closely related to earnings surprises. This link is most evident prior to negative news and in high‐yield bonds. Further, abnormal bond trading during the pre‐announcement period can help predict both earnings surprises and post‐announcement bond returns. Such predictive ability of bond trading largely originates from institutional‐sized trades and is concentrated in the issuer's most actively traded bond. Finally, even after accounting for transactions costs, informed bond trading can generate significant net profits, especially prior to the release of bad news.     

Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: Further empirical evidence

This study examines, month-by-month, the empirical relation between abnormal returns and market value of NYSE and AMEX common stocks. Evidence is provided that daily abnormal return distributions in January have large means relative to the remaining eleven months, and that the relation between abnormal returns and size is always negative and more pronounced in January than in any other month — even in years when, on average, large firms earn larger risk-adjusted returns than small firms. In particular, nearly fifty percent of the average magnitude of the ‘size effect’ over the period 1963–1979 is due to January abnormal returns. Further, more than fifty percent of the January premium is attributable to large abnormal returns during the first week of trading in the year, particularly on the first trading day.     

In- and out-of-the-money convertible bond calls: Signaling or price pressure?

Convertible bond calls typically cause significant reactions in equity prices. The empirical research largely finds negative and positive announcement effects for the in-the-money and the out-of-the-money calls respectively. However, this research has difficulty distinguishing between the two main theoretical explanations: the signaling effect and the price pressure effect. In this paper, we differentiate between these two effects by using a unique data set of the in- and the out-of-the-money calls in the United States during the period of 1993 to 2007. We find that the announcement effect for the in-the-money call is predominantly explained by the subsequent order imbalances; and the stock market's reaction is spread over an entire trading day, which is consistent with the price pressure effect. In contrast, the announcement effect for the out-of-the-money call is driven by the size of the called convertible bond; and the stock market's reaction is almost immediate, which is consistent with the signaling effect.     

Further Evidence on Insider Selling Prior to Seasoned Equity Offering Announcements: The Role of Growth Opportunities

Previous research documents significant abnormal net selling by insiders prior to seasoned equity offering announcements. This study documents that the abnormal net selling is significantly greater for growth firms than for mature firms. It also shows that growth firms experience poorer post-issue long-term price performance, which suggests greater overpricing for growth firms. Further analysis shows that greater insider selling prior to the offering announcement is associated with a greater price run-up prior to the announcement and is not associated with a more negative market reaction to the announcement. Overall, the results suggest that investors may be overly optimistic about future prospects of growth firms.     

Do Spin‐offs Expropriate Wealth from Bondholders?

A wealth transfer from bondholders to stockholders is one of several hypotheses used to explain stockholder gains on the announcement of a spin‐off. However, previous empirical research has not found systematic evidence supporting the wealth expropriation hypothesis. Using a larger sample with comprehensive bond data, we find evidence consistent with wealth expropriation. Bondholders, on average, suffer a significant negative abnormal return during the month of the spin‐off announcement. However, even accounting for the loss to the bondholders, the aggregate value of the publicly traded debt and equity increases on a spin‐off announcement, suggesting that the wealth expropriation hypothesis is not a complete explanation of the stockholder gains. In explaining the magnitude of the losses to bondholders, we find they are a function of the loss in collateral in the spun‐off subsidiary and the level of financial risk of the parent firm. Consistent with a loss to bondholders, firms are more likely to have their credit rating downgraded than upgraded after a spin‐off. Additionally, consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis, losses to bondholders tend to be more severe, the larger the gains to shareholders.     

The Chinese Stock Dividend Puzzle

In this paper, we examine the announcement effects of dividends with an emphasis on stock dividends in China's capital market. We find that dividend-paying stocks exhibit significantly positive abnormal returns while non-dividend-paying stocks show a negative announcement effect. Further, we document that the cumulative abnormal returns for pure stock dividends and combined dividends are the main drivers of this announcement effect. In contrast, pure cash dividend stocks experience no significant price run-up before announcement. The significant announcement effect of stock dividends is robust to controlling the earnings surprise effect. We offer some discussion of the possible explanations.     

Initial Evidence on the Role of Accounting Earnings in the Bond Market

We document that: (1) the incidence of bond trade increases during the days surrounding earnings announcements, (2) there is a bond‐price reaction to the announcement of earnings, and (3) there is a positive association between annual bond returns and both annual changes in earnings and annual analysts' forecast errors. All of these effects are larger when earnings convey bad news or when the underlying bond is more risky. Taken together, our results suggest that the nonlinear payoff structure of bond securities affects the role of accounting earnings in the bond market.     

The structure of information release and the factor structure of returns

We model how firms releasing information on different dates causes the CAPM to fail, requiring an additional factor based on the information structure to price assets. We exemplify this mechanism’s empirical relevance using quarterly earnings announcements, which cluster across months along size and book-to-market. Seventy percent of the alpha reduction from including SMB and HML occurs in the four main earnings announcement months. The information structure factor accounts for all of SMB and HML’s seasonal alpha reduction and one third of their overall alpha reduction. Controlling for size and book-to-market, exposures to SMB and HML vary with firms’ earnings announcement month.     

Equity Ownership and Firm Value: Evidence from Targeted Stock Repurchases

In contrast to the negative average abnormal return associated with the announcement of a control‐related targeted repurchase (greenmail transaction), we find that the announcement of a noncontrol‐related targeted repurchase is associated with a positive and significant average abnormal return. Cross‐sectional analysis indicates that the change in firm value at the announcement of a noncontrol‐related targeted repurchase is negatively related to the resulting changes in both insider ownership and outside blockholdings. We also find significant differences in announcement‐period stock price effects depending on the identity of the selling shareholder.     

Convertible calls and corporate taxes under asymmetric information

This paper develops a signalling model of call of convertible securities (bonds or preferred stock) in the presence of corporate taxes and asymmetric information about future earnings. In equilibrium, managers with relatively unfavorable information call to force convertible holders to convert to common stock (in spite of the loss of corporate tax benefits if the convertibles are bonds), while those with relatively favorable information do not call. The model predicts that the announcement period common stock returns are more negative at the call of convertible bond than at the call of convertible preferred stock. Furthermore, we predict that when the importance of the tax deductibility of interest differs among firms, so does the stock price reaction to the announcement of convertible debt call. Specifically, the loss of equity value at the announcement decreases with the amount of non-debt tax shield that the calling firm owns, decreases with the book value of convertible debt called, and increases with corporate taxes.