Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers’ Option Exercise Strategies

In this study we incorporate sticky rents into a real options model to rationalize the widely documented overbuilding puzzle in real estate markets. Given the assumption that developers’ objective function is to maximize total revenue by selecting an optimal occupancy level, our model provides a better explanation of the phenomena we observed in the real world than the traditional market-clearance based real options models. We also show that developers’ exercise strategies can be affected by the size and the type of property markets. In other words, developers’ exercise strategies could differ among markets and under different conditions. Submitted to Cambridge—Maastricht 2005 Symposium.     

Index-option pricing with stochastic volatility and the value of accurate variance forecasts

In pricing primary-market options and in making secondary markets, financial intermediaries depend on the quality of forecasts of the variance of the underlying assets. Hence, pricing of options provides the appropriate test of forecasts of asset volatility. NYSE index returns over the period of 1968–1991 suggest that pricing index options of up to 90-days maturity would be more accurate when: (1) using ARCH specifications in place of a moving average of squared returns; (2) using Hull and White's (1987) adjustment for stochastic variance in the Black and Scholes formula; (3) accounting explicitly for weekends and the slowdown of variance whenever the market is closed. (JEL C22, C53, C10, G11, G12)     

Banking fragility and liquidity creation: options as a substitute for deposits

Diamond and Rajan (J Finance 55:2431–2465, 2000; Am Econ Rev Papers Proc 91:422–425, 2001a; Carnegie–Rochester Conf Series Public Policy 54:37–71, 2001b; J Pol Econ 109:287–327, 2001c) have shown in a series of papers that it is precisely the fragility of their capital structure which allows banks to create liquidity. This is because the threat of runs by depositors forces bankers to extract full repayment on otherwise illiquid assets. This result has important implications for financial regulation, such as for capital requirements and deposit insurance. This note shows that put options held by bank owners dominate deposit financing in that they also discipline bankers but do not give rise to inefficient runs. Fragility is thus not necessary for liquidity creation in the Diamond–Rajan framework. This paper has substantially benefitted from the comments and suggestions of an anonymous referee.     

American and European options in multi-factor jump-diffusion models,near expiry

We derive a general formula for the time decay θ for out-of-the-money European options on stocks and bonds at expiry, in terms of the density of jumps F(x,dy) and the payoff g ₊: −θ(x)=∫ g(x+y)₊ F(x,dy). Explicit formulas are derived for the standard put and call options, exchange options in stochastic volatility and local volatility models, and options on bonds in ATSMs. Using these formulas, we show that in the presence of jumps, the limit of the no-exercise region for the American option with the payoff (−g)₊ as time to expiry τ tends to 0 may be larger than in the pure Gaussian case. In particular, for many families of non-Gaussian processes used in empirical studies of financial markets, the early exercise boundary for the American put without dividends is separated from the strike price by a nonvanishing margin on the interval [0,T), where T is the maturity date.      

Distress Risk,Growth and Earnings Quality

We extend and complement prior work by investigating the earnings quality of firms with different financial health characteristics and growth prospects. By using three alternative measures of default likelihood and two alternative measures of growth options, without being limited to a specific event, we provide a more comprehensive setup for analysing the earnings characteristics of the universe of firms than examining distressed firms with persistent losses, dividend reductions or bankruptcy‐filings. Our dataset consists of 15,049 healthy U.S. firms over the period 1990–2004. Results show that the relation between earnings quality and financial health is not monotonic. Distressed firms have a low level of earnings timeliness for bad news and a high level for good news, and manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than healthy firms. On the other hand, healthy firms have a high level of earnings timeliness for bad news. Growth aspects play an important role in a firm's ability to manage earnings. In contrast to the findings of prior studies, growth firms have greater earnings timeliness for bad news, whereas value firms manage earnings toward a positive target more frequently than growth firms.     

The analysis and valuation of interest rate options

This paper provides a simple, alternative model for the valuation of European-style interest rate options. The assumption that drives the hedging argument in the model is that the forward prices of bonds follow an arbitrary two-state process. Later, this assumption is made more specific by postulating that the discount on a zero-coupon bond follows a multiplicative binomial process. In contrast to the Black-Scholes assumption applied to zero-coupon bonds, the limiting distribution of this process has the attractive features that the zero-bond price has a natural barrier at unity (thus precluding negative interest rates), and that the bond price is negatively skewed. The model is used to price interest rate options in general, and interest rate caps and floors in particular. The model is then generalized and applied to European-style options on bonds. A relationship is established between options on swaps and options on coupon bonds. The generalized model then provides a computationally simple formula, closely related to the Black-Scholes formula, for the valuation of European-style options on swaps.     

Valuation before and after tax in the discrete time, finite state no arbitrage model

We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear taxation system to be neutral—within the multi-period discrete time “no arbitrage” model—in the sense that valuation is invariant to the exact sequence of tax rates, realization dates as well as immune to timing options attempting to twist the time profile of taxable income through wash sale transactions.

“In the study of investments, taxes are largely a source of embarrassment to financial economists.” (Introduction to Dybvig and Ross 1986) “Accordingly, my approach in this chapter is to examine the restrictions on the income measurement rules applicable to financial instruments implied by the requirement that the rules be linear. . . . Linearity is a desideratum of a tidy tax system.” (Bradford 2000, p. 373–374)

     

Empirical evidence on the use, size and cost of executive options schemes in Australia

In this paper we provide an overview of empirical data relating to the use, scale and cost of executive options schemes in Australia. Our data is based on a sample of 100 large listed Australian corporations. Our data suggests that approximately 80% of large listed corporations in Australia presently employ executive options schemes, but that the size and cost of these schemes reduced significantly after 2000. We argue that this reflects the impact of increased public scrutiny over options schemes and the impending move in Australia towards a financial reporting regime in which treating the cost of options as an expense for the purposes of calculating annual profit and loss is mandatory.     

Overconfidence among option traders

The investor overconfidence theory predicts a direct relationship between market‐wide turnover and lagged market return. However, previous research has examined this prediction in the equity market, we focus on trading in the options market. Controlling for stock market cross‐sectional volatility, stock idiosyncratic risk, and option market volatility, we find that option trading turnover is positively related to past stock market return. In addition, call option turnover and call to put ratio are also positively associated with the past stock market return. These findings are consistent with the overconfidence theory. We also find that overconfident investors trade more in the options market than in the equity market. We rule out explanations other than investor overconfidence, such as momentum trading and varying risk preferences, for our findings.     

Pricing European-type,early-exercise and discrete barrier options using an algorithm for the convolution of Legendre series

This paper applies an algorithm for the convolution of compactly supported Legendre series (the CONLeg method) (cf. Hale and Townsend, An algorithm for the convolution of Legendre series. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 2014, 36, A1207–A1220), to pricing European-type, early-exercise and discrete-monitored barrier options under a Lévy process. The paper employs Chebfun (cf. Trefethen et al., Chebfun Guide, 2014 (Pafnuty Publications: Oxford), Available online at: http://www.chebfun.org/) in computational finance and provides a quadrature-free approach by applying the Chebyshev series in financial modelling. A significant advantage of using the CONLeg method is to formulate option pricing and option Greek curves rather than individual prices/values. Moreover, the CONLeg method can yield high accuracy in option pricing when the risk-free smooth probability density function (PDF) is smooth/non-smooth. Finally, we show that our method can accurately price options deep in/out of the money and with very long/short maturities. Compared with existing techniques, the CONLeg method performs either favourably or comparably in numerical experiments.     

Financial contagion and asset pricing

Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns, including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises, including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008, the Great Recession beginning 2008 and the European debt crisis from 2010. Using an exchange options model, the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises. The results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises, there is significant mispricing of options, while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises.     

Incorporating financial literacy into the accounting curriculum

Financial literacy education, or the lack thereof, has received much attention in recent years. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed the dot com bubble, corporate scandals that stirred the market, and a large recession. Because many individuals turn to accountants for financial advice, it is now more important than ever for professionals to possess a strong foundation in basic financial literacy to better serve their clients. While the responsibility of financial literacy education does not lie with one institution or one individual, multiple efforts have been put in place to provide financial literacy education to the public. The purpose of this paper is to describe how financial literacy education was successfully incorporated into the accounting classroom to provide tomorrow’s professionals with a strong foundation in financial literacy.     

Can real options explain financing behavior?

Trade-off models commonly invoke financial transaction costs in order to explain observed leverage fluctuations. This paper offers an alternative explanation based on real options. The model is frictionless on the financing side but incorporates irreversibility and fixed costs of investment. Results obtained from simulating the model are broadly consistent with observed financing patterns. Market leverage ratios are negatively related to profitability, mean-reverting, and depend on past stock returns. The gradual and lumpy leverage adjustments can occur in the absence of financial transaction costs. This evidence shows that incorporating real frictions into structural models increases their explanatory power.     

Static versus dynamic hedges: an empirical comparison for barrier options

We conduct an empirical comparison of static versus dynamic hedges of barrier options. Using more than five years of data, we compare a number of static hedges from the literature with dynamic hedges based on the local volatility model. The main result is that the variability of profit-and-loss distributions from certain static hedges is significantly smaller than that of dynamic hedges and robust to changing market scenarios. Furthermore, these static hedges are able to provide a robust tracking of barrier options’ sensitivities. This article reflects the authors’ personal opinion and not necessarily the opinion of their employers.     

Competition in the Financial Sector: Overview of Competition Policies

Competition in the financial sector, as in other sectors, mattersfor allocative, productive, and dynamic efficiency. Theory suggests,however, that unfettered competition is not necessarily bestgiven the special features of financial services. The authordiscusses these analytical complications before reviewing howto assess competition in the financial sector and its determinants.It is shown that competitiveness varies greatly across countries,in perhaps surprising ways, and that it is not driven by financialsystem concentration. Rather, systems with greater foreign entryand fewer entry and activity restrictions tend to be more competitive,confirming that contestability—the lack of barriers toentry and exit—determines effective competition. The authorthen analyzes how competition policy in the financial sectorhas generally been conducted and how changes in competitionin the financial services industries should affect competitionpolicy going forward. In part based on comparison with otherindustries, the author provides some suggestions on how competitionpolicy in the financial sector could be better approached aswell as what institutional arrangements best fit a modern viewof competition policy in the sector. The specific competitionchallenges for developing countries is also highlighted. Theauthor concludes that practices today fall far short of theneed for better competition policy in the financial sector. JEL codes: G10, G18, G28, L1, L5     

寿险公司负债价值计量研究

有效的资产负债管理以寿险公司资产和负债价值的正确计量为基础。寿险负债的长期性和多种嵌入期权的特性使寿险公司资产负债管理更具复杂性。寿险负债价值计量的精算方法注重于它的死亡率风险测定的技术秘诀和期限的长期性,但该方法使期权的效应无从体现,也使在利率和被保险人行为的静态假设不成立的前提下,负债价值被低估的情况发生。因此,必须辅之于财务方法来测量期权在寿险合约中的价值。本文对寿险合约中期权价值的测量及其对ALM的作用也做了探讨。     

Financial architecture, systemic risk, and universal banking

Consolidation has been a fact of life in the wholesale financial services sector, resulting in fundamental change in the financial architecture and public exposure to systemic risk. The underlying drivers include advances in transactions and information technologies, regulatory changes, geographic shifts in growth opportunities, and the rapid evolution of client requirements, which in combination have obliged financial firms to rethink their roles as intermediaries. Moreover, financial sector reconfiguration has accelerated as a result of the global market turbulence that began in 2007, with governments either forcing or encouraging combinations of stronger and weaker financial firms in an effort to stem the crisis and improve systemic robustness. In the process, financial firms that are “systemic” in nature and had a major role in creating the crisis have come out of it with even larger market shares and greater systemic importance. Given the episodic socialization of risk in the form of widespread use of public guarantees to firms judged too big or too interconnected to be allowed to fail, the role of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) is central to the financial architecture and the public interest going forward. This survey paper considers the sources of systemic gains, losses and risks associated with SIFIs in historical context, in the theoretical and empirical literature, and in public policy discussions—i.e., what is gained and what is lost as a result of the available policy options to deal the dominant role of SIFIs in the financial architecture?     

Valuation of complex financial instruments via basic components

This article presents a graphical approach to measuring financial instruments. It observes that the payoff contingencies of a large number of single-payoff financial instruments can be reduced to a piecewise-linear cash flow, which can be replicated with a handful of basic building blocks. Four such building blocks are identified, and they all relate to the concept of options. To demonstrate, this method is used to value several financial instruments: truncated standard call options, truncated standard put options, truncated binary call options, and hybrid foreign-currency put options.     

What do dividends tell us about earnings quality?

Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in the distribution of earnings—cross-sectional variation has increased, with increasing left skewness—as well as in corporate payout policy, with many fewer firms paying dividends and the emergence of stock repurchases. We investigate whether the informativeness of payout policy with respect to earnings quality changes over this period. We find that the reported earnings of dividend-paying firms are more persistent than those of other firms and that this relation is remarkably stable over time. We also find that dividend payers are less likely to report losses and those losses that they do report tend to be transitory losses driven by special items. These results do not hold as strongly for stock repurchases, consistent with them representing less of a commitment than dividends.