A MICROCONSISTENT DATA SET FOR CANADA FOR USE IN REGIONAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POLICY ANALYSIS1

This paper describes the sources and methods used in assembling a microconsistent regional data set for Canada for 1981 for use in counterfactual general equilibrium policy analyses focussing on regional impacts of government policies. A microconsistent data set at the regional level requires assembling detailed consistent accounts of production and demand by region, of interregional and international trade flows, and of transactions involving multiple levels of government. For many or most countries, the data requirements associated with regional general equilibrium analysis preclude this form of work. But because of the substantial progress made in recent years in developing provincial data sources in Canada, such as the provincial input-output tables and the provincial economic accounts, the situation in Canada is different. Using these data, it is possible to construct an interregional microconsistent benchmark data set at a suitable level of commodity detail for subsequent model use. This data set has already been used in an initial evaluation of a number of Canadian regional issues (see Trela and Whalley (1985)). The methodology used follows that presented in an earlier paper of ours (St-Hilaire and Whalley (1983)) which described the construction of a 1972 national data set for Canada developed for tax policy analysis.     

TAX DATA FOR WEALTH CONCENTRATION ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO SPANISH WEALTH TAX

As recent studies in different countries show, tax data offer the opportunity to estimate income or wealth shares for the upper income groups. However, several critical points must be considered in order to avoid misleading conclusions: the interpolation technique used, legal amendments, and tax fraud. In this note we take Spanish wealth tax as a case study to assess the importance of these factors, and compare our results with those obtained by Alvaredo and Saez (2009 ). Although the results of the two analyses are very similar, our approach complements theirs by offering a more precise treatment of the correction of fiscal underassessment and tax fraud in real estate, which is the main asset in Spaniards' portfolios.     

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR POLICY REFORMS IN BEHAVIOURAL TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING

This paper addresses the need for a measure of the uncertainty that is associated with the results calculated using tax policy behavioural microsimulation models. Deriving the analytical measure would be extremely complicated. Therefore, a simulated approach is proposed, which approximates the sampling distribution of aggregate measures based on the sampling distribution of the estimated labour supply parameters. This approach, which is very computer intensive, is compared with a more time‐efficient approach where the functional form of the sampling distribution is assumed to be normal. The results show that in many instances the results from the two approaches are quite similar. The exception is when aggregate measures for minor types of payments, involving relatively small groups of the population, are examined.     

宏观税负实证分析与税收政策取向

在当前国内外形势下,税收长期过快增长,会加重企业和居民的负担,对刺激投资和消费、扩大内需、提高企业国际竞争力不利。从有利于经济持续发展来看,当前中国应采取适度减税政策。     

OPTIMAL TAX POLICY IN A STOCHASTICALLY GROWING ECONOMY

This paper analyses the optimal taxation of capital in a stochastically growing small open economy in which there is a perfect market for a traded bond. The analysis emphasizes the dependence of the optimal tax structure upon the policy rule guiding the growth of government expenditure, and its impact on the behaviour of private agents. In general three taxes, reflecting three required conditions, are necessary to attain the first-best optimum. The first is to correct for any externality caused by government expenditure; the second is to attain the optimal portfolio share; the third is to ensure that the government budget constraint is met.     

THE DECISION TO USE BENEFIT TRANSFER OR CONDUCT ORIGINAL VALUATION RESEARCH FOR BENEFIT-COST AND POLICY ANALYSIS

We develop a method for determining the economic returns to using original valuation research rather than benefit transfer to estimate nonmarket values for policy analysis purposes. We provide a method to guide policymakers in determining the project sizes for which original research can be expected to yield positive returns in terms of reduced decision errors. We then provide an empirical example of how our method can be applied to the estimation of recreation benefits and provide simple guidance to policymakers regarding the relationship between project size and expected returns to original valuation research to estimate recreation benefits. ( JEL H43, Q51, Q26)     

ON THE INEFFICACY OF TEMPORARY POLICY IN A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH MONEY*

We construct a dynamic economy with many consumers with money in their utilities. Two main results—a turnpike theorem and inefficacy of temporary policy—are established in a dynamic general equilibrium framework in which price effects generated through markets are explicitly factored in. Turnpike, which is perfectly independent from wealth distribution among the heterogeneous consumers, will be globally attractive. Temporary policy is not effective not only for the future but for the current economy if the long‐run interest rate level is low. The inefficacy result coincides with an intuitive explanation by the standard permanent income hypothesis.     

STATUS QUO IN THE WELFARE ANALYSIS OF TAX REFORMS

The welfare analysis of tax reforms most often consists of comparing the post‐reform distribution of individual welfare with the pre‐reform distribution or possibly that obtained from another reform as if they were completely independent. Such an “anonymous” approach does not take into account “changes” in individual situations, generally the main source of contention in any tax reform debate. This paper proposes a welfare criterion that allows comparison of reforms while taking into account individual status quo—i.e. pre‐reform—situations. This is done by extending standard utilitarian social welfare criteria to the case where individual utilities depend on initial income and income change.     

我国城市土地市场均衡与土地集约利用

采用情景分析法和市场供求均衡分析法,基于对土地市场不同发育程度、不同市场结构下市场均衡与土地利用集约度的分析,探讨促进土地集约利用的途径与措施,以期为提高我国城市土地资源配置和利用效率提供一个新的研究视角.研究表明,随着土地市场由完全竞争向垄断竞争、完全垄断的市场结构转变,市场化程度在降低,市场机制配置资源的效率在下降;市场发育越不完善,政府对土地市场的干预越过度.越导致土地资源的配置和利用效率的进一步降低.因此,应转变土地管理机制,推进土地市场创新,使市场成为土地资源配置的主要机制.构建以市场配置建设用地为主的机制,充分发挥市场的供求机制、价格机制和竞争机制的作用,尽量消除土地资源配置中的政府失灵,全面提高建设用地的配置效率,缓解经济发展对耕地资源的压力,促进经济社会可持续发展.     

A SURVEY ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF TAX REFORMS FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This study reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex‐post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex ante. Based on these criteria, we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex‐post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the short‐run and long‐run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty, but there is disagreement with respect to the magnitude. Our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade‐offs between short‐run stabilization and long‐run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed. (JEL E62, H20, O20)     

INCOME REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE TAX SYSTEM: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF TAX REFORM

In this paper, we consider reforming the tax system to a comprehensive income tax model in order to amend the differential treatment of income sources. Our simulation analysis shows that the tax reform improves the effectiveness of the tax system on the redistribution of all sources of income including earned income, financial wealth income, and imputed rent. The analysis of incidence of the tax reform suggests that the tax burden for young renters decreases the most and that for young loan-free land owners increases the most through this tax reform.     

FISCAL POLICY AND OPTIMAL TAXATION: EVIDENCE FROM A TAX SMOOTHING EXERCISE

Testing the tax smoothing hypothesis for the EU‐15, we hypothesise that the introduction of the 3%‐deficit rule of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 may have inhibited tax smoothing as European Union (EU)‐member states are no longer capable of letting the deficit grow as much as implied by expected decreases in government expenditure. Our results show that for some countries this fiscal rule may have indeed changed the validity of the tax smoothing hypothesis, thus implying that EU accession has caused welfare losses.     

THE USE OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS AND INNOVATION BY MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN CANADA

The objective of the paper is to determine how the utilisation of intellectual property rights (IPRs) by Canadian manufacturing firms is related to their characteristics, activities, competitive strategies and industry sector in which they operate. The principal source of information used in this endeavour is the Statistics Canada Survey of Innovation 1999.

The paper starts with an overview of other studies that looked at the use of intellectual property rights in Canada. Follows a conceptual framework presenting variables likely to explain the use specific IPRs by Canadian manufacturing firms.

The use of IPRs is to a great extent correlated with basic economic characteristics of firms, their activities and industry environment. A series of estimated logit regressions predict the probability that a firm will use a specific IPR instrument. Also estimated is the contribution of the use of IPRs to the probability that a firm innovates.

The decision of a firm to use IPRs is often not independent of the decision to innovate. To eliminate the potential endogeneity bias I estimate a two-stage logit model. A comparison of the single- and two-stage logit models shows that the nexus from the protection of intellectual property (patents) to innovation may be weaker than indicated by the single equation model.     

GENERAL AND PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM THEORY IN BORK'S ANTITRUST ANALYSIS

In applying economic theory to evaluate antitrust laws, Judge Robert Bork explicitly favors a partial equilibrium over a general equilibrium approach. He believes the general model assumes away too many real-world aspects to be usefully employed as a criterion by which to judge real-world laws.
However, Bork's partial equilibrium replacement, the Oliver Williamson trade-off model, implicitly contains many of the same assumptions as general equilibrium theory. Equilibrium prices in all industries, an absence of external effects, and well-defined demand curves are assumptions of both general equilibrium theory and the Williamson trade-off model. If one theory is judged inadequate because of these assumptions, so should the other.
Bork's analysis is more consistent with market process theory than with his own partial equilibrium approach. Market process theory assumes neither the absence of externalities, nor the presence of well-defined demand and equilibrium prices in all industries.