A MICROCONSISTENT DATA SET FOR CANADA FOR USE IN REGIONAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM POLICY ANALYSIS1

This paper describes the sources and methods used in assembling a microconsistent regional data set for Canada for 1981 for use in counterfactual general equilibrium policy analyses focussing on regional impacts of government policies. A microconsistent data set at the regional level requires assembling detailed consistent accounts of production and demand by region, of interregional and international trade flows, and of transactions involving multiple levels of government. For many or most countries, the data requirements associated with regional general equilibrium analysis preclude this form of work. But because of the substantial progress made in recent years in developing provincial data sources in Canada, such as the provincial input-output tables and the provincial economic accounts, the situation in Canada is different. Using these data, it is possible to construct an interregional microconsistent benchmark data set at a suitable level of commodity detail for subsequent model use. This data set has already been used in an initial evaluation of a number of Canadian regional issues (see Trela and Whalley (1985)). The methodology used follows that presented in an earlier paper of ours (St-Hilaire and Whalley (1983)) which described the construction of a 1972 national data set for Canada developed for tax policy analysis.     

A voting model for the allocation of public goods: Existence of an equilibrium

It is well known that equilibria may not exist for majority voting over multidimensional policy spaces. This paper shows that certain institutional constraints can be imposed upon the voting process to ensure existence of a restricted equilibrium. A restricted equilibrium point must defeat only those points connected to it by one of an exogenously given set of linearly independent voting vectors. Using this procedure in a general equilibrium model to determine demands for public goods, existence of a general political equilibrium is proven. The equilibrium need not be Pareto optimal and may be manipulated by changing the vectors.     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

A PROTOTYPE MICRO-MACRO LINK FOR THE CANADIAN HOUSEHOLD SECTOR

This paper seeks to forge a link between Canadian macro and micro data relating to the household sector. The analysis is in three parts. The first part begins with National Accounts data on the personal sector. These data are adjusted to remove transactions relating to non-biological persons, so that the result is income and expenditure for the household sub-sector. The second part starts with the annual household survey used to collect income distribution data. These survey data are augmented in various ways to account for under-reporting and to add information from other micro data sets particularly the periodic survey of household expenditure patterns and a sample of individual income tax returns. The result is a comprehensive, albeit partially synthetic, household micro data set. In the final part of the paper these two largely independent data sets are compared, and the general quality of the results is discussed.     

Preliminary results from a five-sector flow of funds model of the United Kingdom, 1972–77

This paper provides a preliminary report on a five sector twelve asset flow of funds model estimated on monthly data for the period 1972–77. The model follows the general equilibrium approach in including a complete set of asset demands and supplies. It distinguishes between long-run and short-run demands and in some cases between short-run national and effective demands. It allows for variable adjustment speeds and, apart from the five forcing variables which are the sector's net surpluses, it does not contain any shift variables to serve as proxies for private or public behaviour. This report outlines the structure of the model and summarizes the initial parameter estimates. Some simulations are reported for comparison with related models.     

MICRO-MACRO LINK FOR GOVERNMENT

In the Dutch statistics on government finance a micro/macro link is established. The paper describes why and how this has been done. It appears to be of relevance to the users of the statistics to present two different data sets: one according to an accounting/administrative point of view and one fitting in the National Accounts. The main features of the way in which these data sets are derived from the underlying bookkeeping documents are given and it is shown how they relate to the accounting and juridical structures of the various government agencies. It appears that in order to arrive at homogeneous data sets, adaptations are in order, mainly bearing on the entries; for the National Account data further transformations, relating to transactions as well as transactors, will appear necessary. It will be enunciated how the relation between these data sets is shown in the statistics on government finance and how, in the same course a micro/macro link is provided for.     

WORKING WITH WHAT WE HAVE: HOW CAN EXISTING DATA BE USED IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC MATRICES?1

This paper outlines a general strategy for constructing socio-demographic matrices, starting with a set of initial estimates based on available data and ending with a set of final estimates adjusted to meet the constraints connecting their true values. The method is described and illustrated by a numerical example taken from the author's current work on marital transition matrices. The figures relate to the male population of England and Wales in 1978 and are based on British official statistics of population numbers, births, deaths, migrations, marriages, widowhoods and divorces.     

Endogenously determined price rigidities

Summary There exists an extensive literature about economies with price rigidities, where some constraints on the set of admissible price systems are exogenously given. In this paper a general equilibrium model extended by a political system is described where the price rigidities are endogenously chosen by political candidates. Sufficient conditions for the existence of a mixed strategy and a pure strategy equilibrium are given. Finally an example is discussed, where in equilibrium both political candidates propose price rigidities excluding the Walrasian equilibrium price system.The author would like to thank Dolf Talman, Pieter Ruys, Jan van Geldrop, and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments on previous drafts of this paper. The author is financially supported by the Cooperation Centre Tilburg and Eindhoven Universities, The Netherlands. This research is part of the VF-program Competition and Cooperation.     

Empirical Inference with Equilibrium Search Models of the Labour Market

This paper examines the use of equilibrium search models in the empirical analysis of labour markets. We survey the literature on structural estimation of these models with micro data on wages and durations, and we discuss the advantages of this approach for policy analysis and for obtaining a better understanding of the labour market. During the past ten years, substantial progress has been made in terms of the explanatory power of these models. We finish with a critical examination of the extent to which the approach can be fruitfully applied to (matched worker-) firm data.     

Utilitarianism and horizontal equity: The case for random taxation

This paper reports on the use of an algorithm to compute optimal policies in the areas of commodity taxation, international trade and public shadow pricing for a government which is interested in redistributing income but has limited powers of taxation. The algorithm is applied to selected LDC data using a highly simplified general equilibrium model. Some insight into the relationships between constraints on taxation and other areas of government policy is provided by analyzing models where domestic tax restrictions can make inefficient public production or tariffs on international trade desirable.     

Estimation errors in input–output tables and prediction errors in computable general equilibrium analysis

We used 1995–2000–2005 linked input–output (IO) tables for Japan to examine estimation errors of updated IO tables and the resulting prediction errors in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis developed with updated IO tables. As we usually have no true IO tables for the target year and therefore need to estimate them, we cannot evaluate estimation errors of updated IO tables without comparing the updated ones with the true ones. However, using the linked IO tables covering three different years enables us to make this comparison. Our experiments showed that IO tables estimated with more detailed and recent data contained smaller estimation errors and led to smaller quantitative prediction errors in CGE analysis. Despite the quantitative prediction errors, prediction was found to be qualitatively correct. As for the performance of updating techniques of IO tables, a cross-entropy method often outperformed a least-squares method in IO estimation with only aggregate data for the target year but did not necessarily outperform the least-squares method in CGE prediction.     

Computable general equilibrium with financial markets

Summary. There are a wide variety of theoretical general equilibrium models with incomplete security markets. In this paper we give a general recipe for using homotopy algorithm to compute equilibria in these models. In many models, taxes, transaction-costs or other market frictions introduce the additional difficulty that equilibrium prices or choices (but not equilibrium allocations) may be undetermined. In order to demonstrate how these difficulties can be dealt with, we develop a globally convergent algorithm to compute equilibria in a model with cash-in-advance constraints, several goods and incomplete financial markets. Furthermore we describe how to implement the algorithm using a publicly available suite of subroutines for homotopy-pathfollowing. Received: October 1, 1999; revised version: December 16, 2000     

RESTRICTING EMPLOYMENT OF LOW‐PAID IMMIGRANTS: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIAL WELFARE IMPLICATIONS FOR LEGAL U.S. WAGE‐EARNERS

This paper builds on earlier work that used a general‐equilibrium model to show that reducing employment of unauthorized immigrants in the United States through a tighter border‐security policy lowers the average income of legal residents. Here we exploit further the detail available in the general‐equilibrium model to look at distributional effects, recognizing that the policy increases wage rates for low‐paid legal workers. We assess the social welfare effect on legal workers using a constant elasticity of substitution social welfare function. We contrast our general‐equilibrium approach to immigration analysis with the more commonly used partial‐equilibrium, econometric approach. (JEL D63, J61, C68)     

Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper seeks to identify evidence of regime-switching behaviour in the monetary policy response function and the variance of the shocks. It makes use of various specifications of a small open-economy Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is applied to South African data from 1989 to 2014. While the in-sample statistics suggest that some of the regime-switching models may provide superior results, the out-of-sample statistics suggest that the inclusion of various forms of regime-switching does not significantly improve upon the forecasting performance of the model. The results also suggest that the central bank response function has been consistently applied over the sample period.     

A GENERAL METHOD FOR CREATING LORENZ CURVES

A general method to construct parametric Lorenz models of the weighted‐product form is offered in this paper. Initially, a general result to describe the conditions for the weighted‐product model to be a Lorenz curve, created by using several component parametric Lorenz models, is given. We show that the key property for an ideal component model is that the ratio between its second derivative and its first derivative is increasing. Then, a set of Lorenz models, consisting of a basic group of models, along with their convex combinations, is proposed, and it is shown that any model in the set possesses this key property. We introduce the concept of balanced fit, which provides a means of assigning weights, according to the preferences of the practitioner, to two alternative objectives for developing Lorenz curves in practice. These objectives are generating an acceptable Lorenz curve and improving the accuracy of the density estimation. We apply the balanced fit approach to income survey data from China to illustrate the performance of our models. We first show that our models outperform other popular traditional Lorenz models in the literature. Second, we compare the results generated by the balanced fit approach applied to one of the Lorenz models that we develop with those generated by the kernel method to show that the approach proposed in the paper generates plausible density estimates.     

Calibration in applied general equilibrium modelling: The case of rationed households

In this paper an adaptation of the general calibration method for applied equilibrium models is proposed which takes into account excess demands or supplies as result of rationing. This adaptation is applied to a multi-level CES-type household. It turns out that the computational burden of this example stays limited as compared with calibration without rationing.     

Incidence theory and the shifting of protection across sectors: the South Asian experience

Using the theoretical framework of a simple general equilibrium model, this paper examines whether strategies aimed at protecting or promoting manufacturing industries indirectly taxed the agricultural and service sectors. A panel data set consisting of five South Asian countries over a 26 year time period is employed in the analysis. Three different estimation procedures are used to account for factors that are country specific and those that are common to all countries. The results indicate that the agricultural sector indirectly felt the brunt of the net protection provided to manufactures due to the ‘shifting of protection’ across sectors. The service sector, on the other hand, indirectly benefited from the general equilibrium spillover effects.     

PROBLEMS IN THE COMPILATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES IN THE NETHERLANDS

This article deals with some aspects of the compilation of input-output tables (I.O. tables). A global view is given of the way in which I.O. tables are compiled in The Netherlands. It is indicated that in The Netherlands a number of developments are in progress that have led to an extension of the uses that are made of I.O. tables. The changing demands on I.O. tables that result from these developments can be met in future to an important degree. This has been made possible by extending and improving basic statistics and by increasing the uses made of automation facilities. Some problems remain, however, and one of these problems takes a central place in this article. This is the problem of accuracy and continuity: how can yearly I.O. tables be compiled that combine accuracy with consistency over time. Accuracy means here that the tables should be as complete as possible and in optimal accordance with all available information. Consistency over time means that estimates of details of I.O. tables compared with the same estimates for previous years reflect real economic developments. It is obvious that those two demands may conflict, particularly for years in which new information becomes available. It then must be decided whether accuracy or consistency in time deserves priority. What problems result from this decision and what are the consequences for the yearly I.O. tables? The problems arising from the conflicting demands of accuracy and continuity apply to the Netherlands in the last few years. This led to a revision of I.O. tables and national accounts for 1977. This revision resulted in an increase of estimated national income of more than 6 percent. For some components the adjustments have been much larger; this is particularly true for the services sector. More information on the 1977 revision is given in an annex.     

Employer payroll taxes and money wage behaviour

In the past ten years tax incidence theory has made a number of strides. Terminology has become standardized, assumptions have been made explicit, and a two sector, two factor, I static general equilibrium model to study incidence questions has been developed and elaborated. Rather than review these developments in any detail, it is sufficient here to note a sampling of these writings, namely the works of MUSGRAVE (1959, Ch. 10), HARBERGER (1962), MIESZKOWSKI (1967), MCLURE (1971) and MEISZKOWSKI'S (1969) summary of this litera-ture. ^{1 1} The models under consideration are essentially short run in nature. For present purposes the works of KRZYZANIAK (1968, 1970) on long run incidence are not being considered. View all notes

A central theme in this literature has been to emphasize the importance of relative price changes in the determination of tax incidence. At the same time it plays down the importance of the direction of shifting (forward or backward) which had been a prominent feature of earlier partial equilibrium incidence analysis. One purpose of the present paper is to argue that in actual empirical situations it is necessary to consider the behaviour of absolute prices in determining the incidence of a specific tax, the employer payroll tax.

There are four parts to the paper. Part I reviews the general equilibrium model and its conclusions on payroll tax incidence. The implications of forward shifting, backward shifting and payment of payroll taxes by employers are discussed in Part II. Results of a test for back-ward shifting of the tax in US manufacturing are reported in Part III. Part IV contains conclusions.

Two conclusions emerge from the analysis. (I) In the general equilibrium models under consideration the employer payroll tax is borne by labour. However, care must be taken in applying this conclusion to a real world situation where transfer payments are a component of family income. (2) Empirical tests in US manufacturing do not support the idea that the I employer tax is shifted totally backward onto money wages.