Can Fraudulent Cues Be Transmitted by Innocent Participants?

The authors explore whether and how linguistic indicators of fraud make their way into the Management Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section of financial reports. Although research has shown that word choice and tone can help identify fraudulent financial reports, it is as yet unclear how this occurs when these reports are written by many individuals, some of whom are unaware that financial misrepresentation is occurring. Through an examination of industry recommendations and interviews with individuals experienced in writing the MD&A section, the authors confirm that many hands are involved in drafting this portion of financial reports. The authors then structure an experiment, using a real fraud case, that asks participants to write an MD&A from truthful prior U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings and a memo from the CFO with suggestions of what to say in the current period MD&A. Unbeknownst to participants the CFO memo was created using phrases from financial statements subsequently identified to be fraudulent. The authors find that individuals do unwittingly write MD&A associated with fraudulent financial statements with relatively little suspicion and that linguistic cues contained in the CFO memo are transmitted to the ultimate MD&A through naive and innocent participants.     

Financial constraints,short selling and corporate fraud: Evidence from China

This study investigates the relationship between financial constraints and corporate fraud commission and its detection and the moderating role of short selling using a partial observable bivariate probit model. First, financially constrained corporations are more likely to commit fraud and their fraudulent behaviours are less likely to be detected. Second, short selling has an interesting effect on corporate fraud. On the one hand, short selling has a direct restraining effect on corporate fraud commission and increases the likelihood of corporate fraud detection. On the other hand, short selling plays a moderating role in the relationship between financial constraints and corporate fraud. This study contributes to the corporate fraud literature by analysing the factors influencing corporate fraud and provides theoretical support for regulators and managers in monitoring fraudulent behaviour.     

Binary choice models for rare events data: a crop insurance fraud application

This study implements a recently proposed score test that could help guide insurance fraud researchers in deciding whether to use a logit or a probit model in predicting insurance fraud probabilities, especially when the occurrence of ones in the dependent variable is much less than zeros. The test is easily implemented in a crop insurance fraud context and seems to be a promising method that could be applicable to analysing and detecting potentially fraudulent claims in various lines of insurance.     

Insurance Taxation and Insurance Fraud

It is common practice in the United States to impose a sales tax on insurance premiums. Insurance benefits are not taxed, and it is typically argued that they should not be taxed because they compensate for a loss. In this paper I present a case where the taxation of insurance benefits is preferable to the taxation of premiums. When insurance fraud is present—in the form of ex post moral hazard—a tax on insurance premiums increases the number of fraudulent claims in the economy, whereas a tax on insurance benefits may reduce fraud. More importantly, however, policyholders are made better off with a benefit tax than with a premium tax.     

Fraudulent collection of unemployment benefits : A theoretical analysis with reference to income tax evasion

The harshest abusers of the unemployment insurance program are those employed who collect benefits while working. This paper analyzes fraudulent claiming behavior and optimal deterrence policy under two alternative penalty schemes, commonly used in tax evasion analyses: one relates punishment to the magnitude of the dishonesty, whereas the other relates punishment to the amount of illegal returns. Two exclusive features of fraudulent benefit claiming are given special attention: the requirement to report at a labor exchange to demonstrate availability for work, and the need to serve a waiting period before benefits can be collected.     

Investment Professionals' Ability to Detect Deception: Accuracy,Bias and Metacognitive Realism

In the first empirical study on the topic, the authors examined the ability of investment professionals to distinguish between truthful and deceptive statements. A random sample of 154 investment professionals made judgments about a series of truthful and deceptive statements, some of which involved financial fraud. Investment professionals' lie detection accuracy was poor; participants performed no better than would be expected by chance. Accuracy in identifying lies about financial fraud was especially poor. Further, participants displayed poor metacognitive realism when assessing their own performance. The theoretical and practical implications for lie detection in the financial industry are discussed.     

Benford's Law as an Indicator of Fraud in Economics

Abstract. Contrary to intuition, first digits of randomly selected data are not uniformly distributed but follow a logarithmically declining pattern, known as Benford's law. This law is increasingly used as a 'doping check' for detecting fraudulent data in business and administration. Benford's law also applies to regression coefficients and standard errors in empirical economics. This article reviews Benford's law and examines its potential as an indicator of fraud in economic research. Evidence from a sample of recently published articles shows that a surprisingly large proportion of first digits, but not of second digits, contradicts Benford's law.     

The adequacy of investment choices offered by 401(k) plans

The choices made by 401(k) participants are the product of two different decisions: what is offered and what is chosen. While there have been a number of studies of the decisions made by participants in 401(k) plans, there have been no studies of the adequacy of the full set of choices offered to 401(k) participants. This paper analyzes the adequacy and characteristics of the choices offered to 401(k)-plan participants for over 400 plans. We find that only 53% of the plans offer an adequate set of options and that over a 20-year period offering inadequate options makes a difference in terminal wealth of over 53%. We find that funds included in the plans are riskier, but have a slightly higher return, than the general population of funds in the same categories. However, we find that the return difference is roughly equal to the difference in expenses between funds selected by plans and randomly selected funds. We study the characteristics of plans that are associated with adequate investment choices, including an analysis of the use of company stock, plan size, and the use of sophisticated strategies.     

网络团购欺诈成因分析与应对——基于消费者羊群行为视角

针对目前兴起的网络团购中所出现的欺诈问题,笔者从消费者羊群行为的角度,使用数学推导和数值仿真的方法,分析了欺诈形成的原因。指出单一提供已参与人数将造成信息不完全,并进而诱发消费者对团购的盲目信任和跟从,导致欺诈有机可乘。进一步地,提出应要求团购发起方提供已浏览人数作为参照指标,避免消费者过多受到他人参与行为的影响。同时,还提出了要求团购发起方申明消费者保障措施、增加消费者评价系统和缓解消费者时间压力等建议,为我国网络团购市场的健康发展提供参考。     

The labor market return to academic fraud

Academic fraud by undergraduate students is pervasive, but should it be taken seriously as an economic problem? Our research suggests so. Using a unique data set from the Caucasus, we estimate a large positive effect of academic fraud on the probability of employment. Econometrically, we deal with endogenous selection into academic fraud and possible measurement error in the reporting of academic fraud using partial identification techniques. The findings demonstrate that incentives to commit academic fraud are strong and point towards the potentially damaging consequences of academic fraud in broader settings.     

Does self-regulation work? Experimental evidence of the reputational incentives of Self-Regulatory Organizations

Self-regulation (SR) is a common way of enforcing quality in markets (such as banking, financial services and several professions) and in a variety of public and private organizations. We provide experimental evidence of the reputational incentives of self-regulatory organizations (SROs) to publicly disclose versus cover-up fraud in an incomplete information environment. We find that observed behaviour is generally consistent with Bayesian equilibrium when subjects are informed about the relative likelihood of fraud detection by a ‘vigilant’ versus a ‘lax’ SRO type. In particular, a fraud disclosure equilibrium is supported when subjects are informed that the ‘vigilant’ SRO is more likely to detect fraud; otherwise, a cover-up equilibrium is supported. However, when subjects are not informed about the relative likelihood of fraud detection by the SRO types (as expected in real SR situations), no equilibrium is strongly supported. Our results suggest that in practice, the reputation-based incentives for effective SR may be inherently ambiguous and weak.     

Potential effects of scaling-up infrastructure in Peru: a general equilibrium model-based analysis

ABSTRACT

This study assesses and compares the potential economic impacts of different investment plans dedicated to filling infrastructure gaps in Peru. Using a national database at the firm level, we start by estimating empirically the positive externalities of Peruvian infrastructure, such as energy, telecommunications, and transportation facilities, on the output of private activities. In the second step, these estimates are introduced in a dynamic computable general equilibrium model used to conduct counterfactual simulations of various investment plans in infrastructure over a 15-year period. These simulations show first to what extent scaling-up infrastructure could be a worthwhile strategy to achieve economic growth in Peru; however, they also show that these benefits depend on the choice of funding schemes related to such public spending.     

Fiduciary responsibility and potential liabilities in health care cost management

This article addresses the key legal issues facing ERISA welfare plan fiduciaries in health care cost management and explores the current status of a number of fiduciary obligations particularly relevant to welfare plan trustees. The authors discuss the fiduciary issues raised by the selection of a health care delivery system, plan design decision making and provider discount arrangements with health plans, and provide suggestion for administering reimbursements for health care costs from third party recoveries and addressing provider fraud.     

LIABILITY AND ANTIFRAUD INVESTMENT IN FINTECH RETAIL PAYMENT SERVICES

Motivated by recently introduced retail payment schemes using information technology, often called “FinTech,” we examine the effect of fraud liability regime on antifraud investment in a FinTech payment scheme, where the front‐end and back‐end services are vertically separated. In an environment where a FinTech payment service provider (FPP) covers only the front‐end services, delegating the back‐end services to an integrated payment service provider (IPP) such as banks and credit card companies, we show that under the IPP liability regime, the IPP invests more in general, while the respective investment depends on the range of the access fee under the FPP liability regime. Specifically, given a sufficiently great loss from accident, if the access fee is in a certain range, the FPP liability regime is superior in terms of antifraud investment. When the FPP makes its indirect revenue from its user base in addition to the revenue from user fees, we can observe greater antifraud investment under both liability regimes, but the overall decrease in fraud probability is higher under the IPP liability regime. Our results suggest that it might be desirable to induce FPP liability regime, which might necessitate regulating the access fee to achieve such an outcome. (JEL G23, G28, D43, L22)     

Reforming occupational pension schemes: the case of the Netherlands

In many countries, occupational plans are being reformed away from defined-benefit (DB) to defined-contribution (DC) designs. This paper explores the case of the Netherlands, which features a particularly high ratio of occupational pension assets to GDP. Dutch occupational DB plans suffer from a number of serious weaknesses, including ambiguous ownership of assets, back-loading of benefits, and lack of tailor-made risk management. To address these weaknesses, we propose collective individual DC plans that are actuarially fair. These schemes maintain important strengths of collective schemes, such as mandatory saving, collective procurement, and pooling of biometric risks. At the same time, they eliminate intergenerational conflicts about risk management and distribution through transparent individual property rights on financial assets and tailor-made risk profiles in individual accounts. We show how the transitional burden due to phasing out the back-loading of pension benefits can be addressed without a substantial increase in contributions.     

会计造假的责任认定及其治理

会计造假在我国是一个久治难愈的顽疾,会计信息使用者、提供者、监管者一方面需要真实的会计信息,另一方面为了追求自身的利益,默认甚至纵容了那些对自己有利的会计造假,而指责那些对自己不利的会计造假。会计造假有着深刻复杂的社会背景,是社会上各种造假现象在会计工作领域的一种反映,还有不合理的行政管理体制的深层次原因。治理会计造假必须跳出就会计造假治理会计造假的怪圈,从导致会计造假的社会环境和体制因素入手,只有这样才能从根本上治理会计造假。     

The efficiency of sponsor and participant portfolio choices in 401(k) plans

To evaluate the extent of inefficient behavior in 401(k) pensions, now the dominant form of retirement saving in America, we attribute inefficiencies separately to the employer's menu design versus participant portfolio elections. Results from our analysis of over 1000 plans and a million participants demonstrate that most sponsors offer efficient investment menus, but participants undo this by constructing inefficient portfolios thus reducing their potential retirement wealth by one-fifth. Because participants are the main source of inefficient pension investment choices, strategies targeting their behavior may be useful — including improved default investment strategies or educational programs. We also show that the number of options offered is less important than the range of funds provided when designing 401(k) menus.     

Rehabilitation of disability benefit claimants other than dependency

Canadian sponsors of successful rehabilitation programs have found they offer impressive benefits for participants in long-term disability plans, as well as for employers and insurers. However, multiemployer plans frequently are not able to capitalize on these benefits.     

He Who Counts Elects: Economic Elites,Political Elites,and Electoral Fraud

What determines the extent of electoral fraud? This paper constructs a model of the tradeoff between fraud and policy concessions (public good provision) which also incorporates the strength of the state. In addition, we parameterize the extent to which economic elites (to whom fraud is costly) and political elites (to whom fraud is advantageous) “overlap.” The model predicts that fraud will be lower and public good provision higher when land inequality is higher, the overlap between elites lower, and the strength of the state higher. We test these predictions using a unique, municipal‐level dataset from Colombia's 1922 Presidential elections. We find empirical support for all the predictions of the model.     

The fable of the leeches,or: The single most unrealistic positive assumption of most economists

Most economists assume that markets depend on government to enforce contracts and rules against default or fraud. With small transactions, however, the cost to use the legal system far exceeds the value at stake in a contract, and even with large contracts, the legal system often cannot solve problems quickly enough to be helpful for companies. This article focuses on four real stories that illustrate how market participants solve problems privately rather than through law and then concludes with a fable to help illustrate that point.