A Further Discussion of Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting, and a Response to Green

Using a revised model framework that views expected adjusted prices of corn-parables as random variables, Green (1994) demonstrates that Vandell's (1992) minimum variance estimator is preferred under the classical ordinary least squares (OLS) assumptions. As a result, the minimum coefficient of variation estimator proposed by Gau, et al. (1993) is preferred only when the classical OLS assumptions are relaxed. We demonstrate that, even under Green's revised framework, there is not sufficient evidence in the paper to justify this claim.     

Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation: An Extension

Vandell (1991) recently developed a rigorous minimum variance technique for selecting and weighting comparables in real estate appraisal. This article extends Vandell's methodology in three areas: (1) an alternative objective function; (2) an approach that explicitly recognizes the non-negativity constraint on comparable weights; and, (3) a more robust comparable inclusion process. Using Vandell's data, we show how our methodology modifies Vandell's results.     

The Analytical Foundations of Adjustment Grid Methods

Within the market data approach to real estate appraisal, two basic types of analysis generally are used: (1) regression analysis; and (2) adjustment grid methods. The focus of this paper is on the adjustment grid methods. Three such methods are identified in the appraisal literature, but their analytical foundations are not clearly presented. The primary objective of this paper is to clarify the analytical foundations of each method. In addition, various ways to estimate the adjustment factors needed to apply the grid methods and a weighting scheme for reconciliation of indicated values are presented. Also, the possible advantage of grid-based over purely regression-based predictions is identified.     

What kind of assumptions need to be realistic and how to test them: A response to Tsang (2006)

Tsang (2006) contends that certain core assumptions of a theory, which are typically about people's behaviors or thoughts, need be realistic, because they determine the viability of the mechanism that generates a hypothesized relationship. While Tsang's (2006) article rightly emphasizes the importance of realistic assumptions, it neglects the issue that certain kinds of assumptions are necessarily unrealistic for the roles that they play in theory development and testing. Therefore, researchers should not be criticized for making unrealistic assumptions of the latter kinds. Furthermore, by deliberating on the assumptions underpinning a theory, researchers can construct theories with better explanatory power and further develop existing theories. Tsang (2006) also suggests two approaches for testing assumptions, namely, a structural model and direct inquiry approaches. Although these approaches have certain merits, they also have limitations that may render the evidence gathered unreliable under certain situations. Two alternative approaches, namely, the experimental‐causal‐chain and the moderator‐of‐process designs, address these limitations. The researcher could consider adopting these designs as well in order to improve the rigor of assumption testing. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency outcomes of market concentration and managed care

The paper examines how hospital cost efficiency has reacted to extensive horizontal integrations of hospitals and rapid growth of managed care in the US health care industry. Cost efficiency is estimated by using panel data approaches to relax the assumptions for the hospital effects imposed in earlier studies. The paper shows that higher managed care penetration over time is associated with greater hospital efficiency, and higher market concentration is positively associated with efficiency when markets are highly competitive or highly concentrated.     

A Further Examination of Appraisal Data and the Potential Bias in Real Estate Return Indexes: Comment and Clarification

This comment points out a flaw in Gau and Wang's recent empirical analysis of appraisal return bias and clarifies a point in Geltner's previous article that may have misled Gau and Wang as well as others. In examining appraisal bias in returns it is important to distinguish between cross-sectional versus time-series moments. In dealing with time-series data, both the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean returns offer useful information and can complement each other in correcting for appraisal bias in the first moment of returns series.     

What $2.5 billion can buy: The effect of the Broadband Initiatives Program on farm productivity

This paper investigates whether the Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP), implemented as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) had a positive impact on farm productivity, defined as farm sales per farm employment, in the counties that received any BIP funding. The effect of BIP on the growth of farm sales was examined for the 2008–2010, 2008–2011, 2008–2012 and 2008–2013 periods. The selection bias (the probability that a county received BIP funding) was accounted for using the inverse probability weighting regression method (IPW). The findings suggest that BIP funding had a significant but short-term impact on per employment farm sales.     

Access Pricing and Network Expansion in Natural Gas Markets

In this paper, we discuss different indirect approaches to cope with local market power in natural gas markets, in particular the extension of pipeline capacity as an instrument to combat nodal market power. One perspective, as expressed in Cremer and Laffont (Eur. Econ. Rev. 46:928–935, 2002) is that a discriminatory access price can correct for market failure and induce an increase in output. We argue, on the contrary, that the opposite holds: non-discriminatory access to the pipeline system will lead to overcapacity, and is thus the preferable strategy.     

The utilization of individual capabilities in group approaches to strategic decision-making

Previous research has found that groups using dialectical inquiry (DI) or devil's advocacy (DA) make better strategic decisions than groups using a consensus (C) approach. This paper explains those findings by using new data to show that the DI and DA approaches make better use of the capabilities of individual group members. Specifically, the DI and DA groups yielded significantly higher quality recommendations and assumptions than the average of the individuals in the respective groups, whereas the C groups did not. Moreover, the recommendations and assumptions of the DI groups and the recommendations of the DA groups significantly exceeded those of the best individual in the respective groups. There were no significant differences for the C groups.     

On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending

This paper takes an initial step toward the development of an empirically-based model of default risk assessment in the commercial mortgage market. A review of existing empirical studies of residential mortgage and commercial loan default provides evidence for appropriate model specification and estimation. A simple default risk model for commercial mortgages is then developed based upon the generalized default risk models of Jackson and Kaserman [1980] and Vandell [1981]. The model is then examined for its ability to successfully handle a variety of situations and used to test the validity of traditional ratio analysis "rules-of-thumb" employed in commercial lending. Ratio tests are found generally to be inconsistent with an objective of constraining default risk below some maximum. Finally, a modified ratio analysis consistent with the model and with a constrained default risk strategy is introduced.     

Managerial Advantages of using Payback as a Surrogate for NPV

Existing literature identifies specific situations in which payback methods (PB) can provide precise surrogates for NPV analyses of accept/reject decisions. This paper extends that literature to take explicit account of taxation and of ranking decisions using profitability indices. Nevertheless, NPV can be considered preferable to PB as a basis for maximising stockholder wealth (MSW), because it requires fewer assumptions and provides more information. Yet simple PB continues to be used extensively, which suggests that it has advantages for decision-makers. Some authors suggest that its use reflects managerial short-termism and is inconsistent with MSW. In contrast, this paper proves that (with standard patterns of cash flows, defined risk classes and asymmetrical information) the use of PB instead of NPV should motivate risk-averse subordinate managers to adopt more positive NPV projects. Consequently, the appropriate use of PB can result in more wealth for stockholders than would occur using NPV directly. Furthermore, the use of PB avoids a number of costs and in the appropriate circumstances may therefore be the most cost-effective basis for evaluating investment decisions.     

Research on Office Markets

The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association is pleased to acknowledge the support of the Homer Hoyt Institute for this special issue on office markets. I am particularly grateful to Maury Seldin, President of the Homer Hoyt Institute, for recognizing the importance of this emerging and timely research area. His support for office market research and his ability to bring together academics, practitioners, and crucial data constitute a valuable contribution to this research area. I also acknowledge the advice and assistance of the former editors of the AREUEA Journal, Donald Haurin and Patric Hendershott; and the current editors, Dennis Capozza, James Shilling, and Kerry Vandell.     

The Simple Meaning of Complex Rates of Return

Real options analysis (ROA) has been identified in the literature as a quantitative means to evaluate the flexibility inherent in the decision-making process. From an engineering economics perspective, this paper highlights applications, real-world users, modeling approaches, ROA assumptions, and future research directions. Through identifying and systematizing the current literature, a concise summary of modeling concerns and a road map for future modeling efforts and applications is discussed. More specifically, this paper supports research efforts to combine decision analysis tools with financial option pricing techniques to develop a real option framework that will be accepted in industry to make decisions in today's fast-paced and highly competitive business environment.     

A Review of: “STATISTICS OF EXTREMES” By Emil J. Gumbel Columbia University Press New York, 1958 375 pp. $15.00

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.     

Strategic decision analysis: Applied decision analysis and its role in the strategic management process

This paper examines a role for applied decision analysis in the strategic management process. It is argued that decision analysis should be regarded both as a heuristic and a ‘thinking’ algorithm for decision structuring and problem diagnosis and, in addition, as an input to the process of policy dialogue. A policy dialogue paradigm using decision analysis is outlined, in which various viewpoints are reconciled by the questioning of analyses and assumptions. This dialogue paradigm is viewed as being compatible with approaches such as strategic assumptions analysis, which have been suggested in the literature as an aid for the processes of problem finding, formulation and solution.     

Real options valuation: the new frontier in R&D project evaluation?

The real options approach has recently received growing attention in R&D and Technology Management research. Recent empirical findings by Ellis (1997) and Busby and Pitts (1997) also report growing attention and use in practical investment decisions. However, there is a certain concern about the applicability to a wide range of R&D related problems. The theoretical base behind options valuation is derived from the capital markets and thus assumes market conditions that are closer to the theoretical construct of 'perfect competition' than most other settings. Even under these conditions, several assumptions made and difficulties left are subject to controversial discussions. Of course these problems even gain importance when the R&D environment with its discontinuities and lack of regulation or institutionalized trade is assumed. This paper describes some basic properties of the real options approach and sheds light on existing problems for the application in R&D project evaluation. On the other hand, roads to application of the method are shown using the Geske model of option evaluation. One main goal of the paper is to broaden and deepen the discussion on real option models in R&D and Technology Management, which has in some cases been limited to stressing the advantages of the method rather than reflecting on applicability and concrete way of application of the method.     

Business relationships in the industrial network literature: Three approaches and their underlying assumptions

The industrial network literature contains underlying assumptions about the nature of business relationships. We use change as a vehicle to unearth these assumptions and conduct a systematic review of change in business relationships in the industrial network literature. We identify three approaches to business relationships: agency, structure and practice. Our research contributes to the industrial network literature by explicating how change in business relationships is derived implicitly from what people do, the surrounding structures, or the logic underlying their action. This research helps provide construct clarity by elaborating the key assumptions and key constructs of the three approaches as well their implications for business relationships research.     

基于组合赋权法的多谐波源责任综合评估

为区分多谐波源负荷对公共点的谐波责任,提出一种基于组合赋权法的多谐波源责任综合评估方法。将各次谐波电压含有率作为评估指标,采用优序图与熵权的组合赋权法得到的综合评价结果对谐波电压等级进行评估:定性分析了各负荷应负的谐波电压责任,定量比较了根据组合赋权法求得的加权谐波电压值。从主、客观方面采用组合赋权法对含有多谐波源系统进行责任综合评估,其评估结果客观、合理,具有一定的工程实际意义。     

ALTERNATING MONOPOLY AND TACIT COLLUSION*

This paper considers the use of the alternating monopoly strategy (AMS) as a (tacit) collusion device. We show that firms may choose this strategy in particular environments, when other collusive strategies are also feasible. In particular, we stress how the presence of an observable move (entry), distinct from the competitive stage (price setting), can serve as a coordination device, reducing monitoring costs in incomplete information environments. The paper thus shows that AMS may be preferable to the classic market sharing strategy (MSS) and in some cases it is the only collusive equilibrium.