人本资本形成与内生经济增长

在生产力与生产关系之间关系上分析了技术进步与制度创新的匹配关系。在知识经济时代资本泛化趋势下,以技术要素、制度要素为核心黏合其他要素形成具有多元产权主体的人力资本、治理资本在经济组织内有机整合为人本资本。以制度要素为核心的治理资本边际收益递减假设、技术要素为核心的人力资本边际收益递增假设、制度创新和技术进步匹配假设的基础上导出人本资本形成与其内生经济增长关系,并分析了我国某些国有企业存在的一些弊端。     

中国工业的技术选择与技术进步:1985-2003

本文对1985—2003年来中国工业行业的技术选择做了评估,用DEA法计算期间工业行业的技术进步(TFP)及其分解项技术变化与技术效率,对技术选择与技术进步的关系进行理论梳理和实证检验。我们发现和论证了:(1)中国工业部门在1991—1995和1999—2003年间两度有重化工业化趋势,在1993—1998年间发生了加速资本深化,1999年后,资本深化逐年趋缓。不同产权类型的资本产出比、劳动生产率和资本生产率存在很大差异;(2)工业行业在1990—1993年和1999—2003年有明显的技术进步,两个期间的技术进步主要分别归因于技术效率和技术变化;(3)国企比例或垄断程度高的行业在技术变化方面表现突出,但技术效率的退化程度令人堪忧,而竞争性强的行业技术效率改善明显,但技术变化方面表现不佳;(4)中国工业行业的技术选择(资本深化)对技术变化具有Granger促进作用(反之不成立),但技术变化不是期间技术进步的主要方面,以至于资本深化与技术进步间并不存在统计上的稳定关系。     

土地价格市场化对中国工业部门要素投入与技术选择的影响

土地价格市场化是中国要素价格改革的重要组成部分。文章基于2007-2013年中国工业部门面板数据,实证检验了工业用地相对价格变动对中国工业部门要素投入调整和技术进步偏向的影响。研究发现：短期内,东部地区工业用地相对价格上升抑制了工业用地需求,并诱致了非土地要素对工业用地的替代,但在全国层面和中西部地区并没有显著观察到土地要素相对价格变动的短期诱致替代效应;长期内,工业用地价格上升诱致了能源与物质资本节约型和知识资本使用型技术的使用,土地节约型技术进步特征仅在东部地区得到了显著支持,在全国层面和中西部地区都不显著,这与中国政府主导型的工业用地价格市场化改革特征密切相关。未来中国应以土地价格市场化改革为契机,重视土地价格杠杆对工业部门要素结构优化和技术创新的激励效应,推动工业转型升级。     

中国工业资本收益率和配置效率测算及分解

本文利用1999-2007年的工业企业数据库测算了中国工业资本收益率,在此基础上基于资本边际收益均一化理论测算了工业资本配置效率,并利用份额转换分析方法对工业资本收益率进行行业间分解,结果显示:(1)中国的工业资本收益率在近十年内大幅提高,而资本在行业间的配置效率虽然有所提高,但是变化很小。(2)中国工业部门资本收益率的增长是由于资本收益率自身的增长效应带来的。工业资本效率的改善更多体现在总量效率上,而投资结构缺乏效率。本文的发现对反思和探讨产业调控政策措施选择问题具有借鉴意义。     

技术进步偏向对要素收入份额的影响——基于中国工业行业数据的研究

本文利用CES生产函数考察了技术进步偏向与资本一劳动收入份额比值之间的关系,并利用中国工业1979—2011年的数据进行了实证分析。估计结果表明：中国工业的要素替代弹性大于0小于1;资本增强型技术进步变化率小于劳动增强型技术进步变化率,1987年后工业技术进步为劳动节约型的,资本一劳动收入份额比值提高;资本深化、技术进步偏向、外商直接投资以及国际贸易是我国工业资本收入份额持续上升、劳动收入份额持续下降的主要原因,其中劳动节约型技术进步对要素收入份额失衡的影响最大。工业要素分配份额的演变直接体现了国民收入分配格局的失衡,也间接拉大了我国居民之间的收入差距。     

要素价格扭曲、技术创新模式与中国工业技术进步偏向——基于中介效应模型的分析

技术进步是长期经济增长的源泉,技术进步偏向是资源要素配置特征的一种表现,考察中国工业技术进步偏向特征及其成因,对于优化技术创新模式、加快产业转型升级具有重要意义.本文通过引入要素价格扭曲和技术创新模式这两类指标,利用中介效应模型构建了中国工业技术进步偏向的影响因素体系.结果显示:现阶段中国工业的技术进步方向为资本偏向型,这将对收入分配和产业升级造成不利影响;近年来中国工业的要素价格存在负向扭曲,且扭曲程度并未得到有效遏制;技术进步偏向和要素价格扭曲程度均受到行业要素密集度的影响;要素价格扭曲通过直接效应和间接效应导致技术进步偏向资本,其中技术创新模式发挥的中介效应占总效应的比重为23％,可见引进型技术创新模式会加重技术进步的资本偏向.因而,积极推进要素市场化改革、提升自主创新能力是优化中国工业技术进步方向的必由之举.     

技术差距与中国工业技术进步方向的变迁

本文通过对中国工业行业1998—2016年技术进步的方向进行测度,发现2011年以前中国工业行业技术进步相对提高了资本的技术效率以及边际产出,而在2011年以后技术进步由资本偏向转变为劳动偏向,这也是导致中国劳动收入份额U型演变的关键因素之一。理论研究表明:与发达国家间技术差距的缩小是导致中国工业行业技术进步方向发生改变的重要因素。当与发达国家间技术差距较大时,中国工业行业技术进步以引进吸收国外先进技术为主,更加偏向资本。随着技术差距的缩小,中国逐步走向自主创新道路,技术进步会更偏向相对发达国家而言更为丰裕的劳动要素。基于省级面板数据的实证研究也表明,当技术差距较大时,经济开放程度是决定工业行业技术进步方向的关键因素,会通过促进资本增强型技术并抑制劳动增强型技术的方式,使技术进步偏向资本。而当技术差距缩小后,研发投入成为技术进步的主要来源,并且会使技术进步偏向劳动。因此,为进一步提高工业行业劳动收入份额,需要更加鼓励自主创新,注重引进人才和提高劳动者技能,促进劳动偏向性和技能偏向性技术进步。     

财政分权、投资失衡与工业资本深化——基于中国区域特征的经验研究

本文通过对1985—2009年的省际面板数据分析发现,与中国东高西低的经济梯度相反,相对落后的西部地区反而具有东、中、西部三大区域中更高的工业资本深化程度,基于这一反常现象,我们对中国工业资本深化发生机制进行了探讨。研究结果表明,在中国式分权体制所引致的财政压力与竞争激励下,地方政府对本地工业化进程的积极干预导致了区域投资结构的失衡,这种失衡表现为金融信贷的扩张以及针对国有工业部门的投资倾斜,两者的共同作用显著推动了中国区域层面的资本深化过程;西部地区相对最高工业资本深化程度也与其金融信贷的高度扩张以及国有工业部门资本的超量积累存在很大关联。从这一角度来看,中国工业的资本深化更多地是一种体制现象,相关对策也应更多地从体制层面着手。     

论人才资源开发积累战略

人才资源具有收益递增的特点,在技术系数不变的条件下,生产中的某一要素投入到一定程度后,会出现收益递减的趋势。而作为人力资本的人才资源是一种能动性很强的资本,其使用过程是泮随着知识增长和更新、经验积累、能力开发和个性完善等发展过程,因此,人才资源的积累,对于国家进步、国民经济的发展,具有举足轻     

技术进步偏向与中国工业行业全要素生产率增长

文章利用CES生产函数分析了技术进步偏向与全要素生产率增长之间的关系,运用1978—2011年中国工业行业数据核算全要素生产率增长和度量技术进步偏向情况。结果显示:1987年后我国工业及大多数行业技术进步明显偏向资本。工业全要素生产率的整体增长率比较低且1990年后主要呈下降趋势,其主要原因是劳动生产效率的上升速度小于技术进步偏向资本的速度,且资本生产效率下降的速度大于技术进步偏向资本的速度。同时,大多数行业资本偏向型技术进步越突出,则行业全要素生产率增长下降越明显。这说明我国工业及行业技术偏向的选择并非是适宜技术。     

Labor Market Reform and the Changing Structure of Wage Determination in China's State Sector during the 1980s

China's market-oriented labor market reform has been in place for about one and a half decades. This study uses individual data for 1981 and 1987 to examine the success of the first half of the reform program. Success is evaluated by examining changes in the wage setting structure in the state-owned sector over the reform period. Have the market reforms stimulated worker incentives by increasing the returns to human capital acquisition? Has the wage structure altered to more closely mimic that of a market economy? In 1987, there is evidence of a structural change in the system of wage determination, with slightly increased rates of return to human capital. However, changes in industrial wage differentials appear to play the dominant role. It is argued that this may be due to labor market reforms, in particular the introduction of the profit related bonus scheme.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 403–421. Australian National University, Canberra, ACT0200, Australia and University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, and University of Aberdeen, Old Aberdeen, Scotland AB24 3QY.     

外资与我国劳动收入份额--基于工业行业的经验研究

本文分析了1998-2003年我国工业行业劳动者报酬份额变化的原因,重点探讨了外资的作用.结果表明,1998-2003年我国工业行业劳动者报酬份额平均降低了约5个百分点,其中外资进入对该降幅具有相当的解释力,而这种负向作用主要来源于其负向的工资溢出效应.导致我国工业行业劳动者报酬份额下降的主要因素还包括行业资本密集度及资本回报率的提高,而国有企业改制、地方政府间经济绩效竞争的弱化和贸易开放则会促进行业劳动者报酬份额的提高.     

Regional productivity variation and the impact of public capital stock: an analysis with spatial interaction,with reference to Spain

In this article, we examine whether variations in the level of public capital across Spain's Provinces affected productivity levels over the period 1996 to 2005. The analysis is motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, involving a production function for the competitive sector of the economy (‘industry’) which includes the level of composite services derived from ‘service’ firms under monopolistic competition. The outcome is potentially increasing returns to scale resulting from pecuniary externalities deriving from internal increasing returns in the monopolistic competition sector. We extend the production function by also making (log) labour efficiency a function of (log) total public capital stock and (log) human capital stock, leading to a simple and empirically tractable reduced form linking productivity level to density of employment, human capital and public capital stock. The model is further extended to include technological externalities or spillovers across provinces. Using panel data methodology, we find significant elasticities for total capital stock and for human capital stock, and a significant impact for employment density. The finding that the effect of public capital is significantly different from zero, indicating that it has a direct effect even after controlling for employment density, is contrary to some of the earlier research findings which leave the question of the impact of public capital unresolved.     

Unionization and distribution of income under variable returns to scale

Variable returns to scale are introduced into the two-sector analysis of unionization and income distribution, and some new results are obtained. Specifically, with increasing returns to scale it is possible for both union and non-union workers to lose (gain) from unionization even when the unionized sector is relatively capital (labor) intensive.     

Capital substitution in an industrial revolution

A unified growth model is presented in which productivity growth is driven by learning‐by‐doing. We show that the growth rate of productivity is an increasing function of the share of capital. It is assumed that the industrial sector has a higher capital share than the agricultural sector and that the ability to substitute one output for the other in the construction of capital goods slowly rises over time. Two distinct regimes of constant growth emerge, connected by a rapid transition in which the growth rate of income increases by an order of magnitude, indicative of an industrial revolution.     

Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined

This paper examines the role of structural change in explaining aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of four Asian countries over the period 1963–1993. The conventional shift-share analysis is used to measure the impact of shifts in both labour and capital inputs. The results do not support the structural-bonus hypothesis, which states that during industrial development, factor inputs shift to more productive branches. This finding is robust, even when the conventional shift-share analysis is modified to take into account increasing returns to scale as described in Verdoorn's law. It is argued that improvements in productivity levels were widespread and depended negatively on the distance from the global technology frontier, confirming the Gerschenkronian notion of catch-up.     

Performance of Thailand banks after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis

The performance of commercial banks and government-owned specialized banks in Thailand is estimated after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. Commercial banks exhibit increasing returns to scale, whereas government-owned specialized banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale, implying further increases in bank size and market concentration in the commercial bank sector but not for government specialized banks. Cost inefficiency varies by bank and is a function of the ratio of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to total loans, equity to total assets and liquid assets to total assets, as well as the number of branches. On average, banks with fewer NPLs, that are well capitalized and with adequate liquidity are efficient. Thus, stricter rules to regulate credit risk management and ensure capital and liquidity adequacy would enhance efficiency in the banking sector. Although estimated input substitutability appears to be low, labour and loanable fund are substitutes. However, labour and physical capital as well as physical and loanable funds are complements in commercial banks. All the three inputs of labour, physical capital and loanable funds are substitutes for the government specialized banks.     

Two tales on human capital and knowledge spillovers: the case of the US and Brazil

This article uses a quasi-Mincerian approach to verify whether the concentration of college-educated individuals employed in the business support services sector and in the own sector contributes to increased productivity in other sectors of the economy. We estimate the returns to education using data from the 2008 US Current Population Survey (March supplement) and from the 2008 Brazilian household survey. This article finds evidence of a positive and significant human capital sectorial spillover effect, which is consistent with Acemoglu’s (1996) conjecture. The sectorial concentration of highly educated workers contributes to increase wages for all workers. This study also finds evidence of increasing returns to education in Brazil and diminishing returns to education in the United States. This finding may be explained by differences in supply of skilled workers in both economies. In addition, the short supply of highly skilled workers in Brazil likely explains the importance of the spillover effect from the business supporting sector.     

Wages, Experience and Seniority

In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match. To estimate the average returns to experience, sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context, we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures. Our data source is a new and unique administrative data-set for Germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics. We find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers. The returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience. Their returns to sector tenure are also zero. However, their returns to firm tenure are substantial.     

European Sector Returns and Capital Market Integration

The paper tests European capital market integration at the sector level. It examines the recent trend of sector‐level returns for four European countries, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK, using “return on assets” of a panel of listed firms of these countries for the period 1988–95. Initial findings suggest that sector returns have converged across countries over time. However, when integration is tested within a capital‐asset pricing model framework, the country effect remains strong. The overall results support the view that European capital market integration is under way, but is far from complete.