Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis

Previous studies have interpreted stock price reaction to dividend announcements as being consistent with the hypothesis that any changes are forecasts of future corporate profits. Recent studies seem to provide evidence to this effect. This study provides additional empirical evidence pertaining to the issue of whether quarterly cash dividend announcements convey useful information about a firm's future profitability, beyond that contained in contemporaneous quarterly earnings announcements. The association between unexpected changes in quarterly dividends and unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent quarters is examined, after controlling for information contained in past and current earnings series. The results, based on a large sample of regular quarterly cash dividend changes, indicate that firms that increased (decreased) their dividends realized, on average, greater (smaller) unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent periods than firms that did not change their dividends.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

THE IMPACT OF UNEXPECTED EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ON ABNORMAL RETURNS TO EQUITY

This paper contributes to the empirical literature which documents the existence of a positive association between unexpected earnings and/or dividend announcements and abnormal returns to equity. The paper addresses some of the methodological limitations evident in the literature. In particular, one methodological difficulty encountered by previous studies is that since earnings and dividend announcements are usually made contemporaneously it is difficult to assess the marginal effect of either announcement on security returns. This problem is dealt with by constructing portfolios of securities which are randomized with respect to unexpected earnings (dividends), but which are systematically ranked on unexpected dividends (earnings). The results indicate that unexpected earnings announcements have a significant marginal impact on abnormal returns. In addition, there is evidence of an impact of unexpected dividends on returns, but it is weaker than unexpected earnings.     

The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world

We examine the link between the accuracy of consensus analysts' dividend forecasts, earnings predictability and dividend policies of firms in 39 countries from 1995 to 2004. For firms that display stronger dividend smoothing, as modeled by Lintner [Lintner, J., 1956. Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review 46, 97–113], there is a lower correlation between dividend and earnings forecast errors, with less of the earnings uncertainty being passed into dividend uncertainty. The link between earnings and dividend forecast errors is weaker in common-law, capital market-based countries and in countries with well-developed financial (debt and equity) markets, where firm managers have greater incentives to smooth dividends and to use dividends for signaling.     

Earnings Response Coefficients and Dividend Policy Parameters

In a seminal paper. Ball and Brown (1968) documented a positive statistical association between earnings surprises and stock returns around an earnings announcement. They concluded that accounting earnings conveyed ‘useful’ information to the market. However, the question of how accounting earnings convey useful information is still being understood. Recent work on this topic has found that current accounting earnings aid investors and analysts in predicting future accounting earnings. Few studies, however, have examined the usefulness of current earnings for predicting other value-relevant attributes. A model by Ohlson (1989a) suggests that investors are also interested in the relationship between current earnings and future dividends. Ohlson's model is supported by empirical tests in this paper which show that the relationship between current earnings and future dividends is significant in explaining cross-sectional variation in earnings response coefficients (ERCs). A second result of interest is that information in dividends substitutes for that in accounting earnings. We find that dividend policy parameters reflect information contained in current earnings. These results add new insights on the information revealed through the analysis of ERCs. Consistent with logic presented here, a symmetrically opposite result is found with respect to dividend response coefficients. The informativeness of earnings (dividends) is found to be negatively (positively) related to the information content of dividends.     

The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan

A major financial disclosure feature in Japan is that stock exchanges require firms to provide next year's earnings forecasts. This study investigates the value relevance of Japanese management earnings forecasts and their impact on analysts' earnings forecasts. First, the value relevance of management forecasts is investigated using a valuation framework provided by Ohlson (2001 ), in which firm value is expressed as a function of book value, current earnings and next year's expected earnings. The analysis yields that of the three accounting variables examined, management forecasts have the highest correlation and incremental explanatory power with stock price.
Next, the impact of management forecasts on analysts' forecasts is examined. The results show that more than 90% of changes in analysts' forecasts are explained by management forecasts alone. Further analysis reveals that the heavy dependence of financial analysts on management forecasts in formulating their own forecasts may partially be attributed to the relatively high accuracy of management forecasts. At the same time, financial analysts also somewhat modify management forecasts when certain financial factors indicate that the credibility of management forecasts is in doubt.
Overall, this study presents empirical evidence that Japanese management forecasts provide useful information for the market and have a significant influence on analysts' forecasts.     

POST-ANNOUNCEMENT DRIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH DIVIDEND CHANGES

In this paper I assess the presence of post-announcement drifts associated with dividend changes after controlling for earnings surprises. All quarterly cash dividend changes announced by firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and American Stock Exchange (AMEX) from 1974 through 1989 are examined. The results show that significant post-announcement drifts associated with dividend changes are present after controlling for earnings surprises. However, the results are not conclusive on whether the market fully incorporates the simple time-series properties of dividends.     

Signaling, investment opportunities, and dividend announcements

This article examines potential explanations for the wealtheffects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find thatnew information concerning managers' investment policies isnot revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We alsofind that dividend increases (decreases) are associated withsubsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expendituresover the three years following the dividend change, and thatdividend change announcements are associated with revisionsin analysts' forecasts of current earnings. These results areconsistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather thanthe free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observedstock price reactions to dividend change announcements.     

The Predictive Content of Earnings Forecasts and Dividends

This paper compares the properties of dividend announcements and management earnings forecasts as predictors of earnings and firm value. First, the two predictors are compared on the basis of their ability to predict earnings. Then the information they convey about firm value is assessed by comparison of the performance of investment strategies based on values of the two predictors. Finally, the effects of dividend announcements on stock prices are considered.     

Dividend changes and earnings performance in Japan

This paper tests the dividend-signaling hypothesis using Japanese data. It is found that firms that increase dividends experience earnings growth in the preceding years but earnings declines in the subsequent years. Just the opposite tendency is found for firms that decrease and omit dividends. These results go against the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the event study results show that the market reacts positively (negatively) to the announcements of dividend increases (decreases). Thus, the evidence indicates that managers tend to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about future earnings when changing dividends, and the market tends to overreact to dividend change news.     

Dividends and Capital Asset Prices

Tax based dividend models of capital asset pricing assume that dividends are known at the time prices are set. Dividends which are announced and paid in the same month, and dividends which were expected but cancelled in the month constitute surprises which interfere with many empirical tests of the effects of expected dividend yield on returns. This paper avoids these problems by relating returns to forecasts of dividend yield obtained from past data.     

Tax Costs and Signalling Benefits: The Impact of Surplus ACT

Companies with surplus ACT are faced with additional tax costs if they use dividends to signal information to investors, hence there is a trade-off between tax costs and signalling benefits. This paper provides evidence that investors' reactions to dividend surprises are influenced by the signal generated by earnings and tax planning considerations. The results indicate that in the presence of a positive earnings signal and a binding tax constraint, decreases in dividends are value enhancing.     

The accuracy of management dividend forecasts in Australia

Dividends have direct cash flow consequences for investors and are important for signalling reasons. Consequently, investors, analysts and managers typically forecast future dividends and report them in various ways. Yet the accuracy of dividend forecasts has been largely neglected in empirical finance. We examine the accuracy of managers' dividend forecasts in Australian IPO prospectuses (a companion paper examines the analysts' dividend forecasts). Managers' dividend forecasts are optimistically biased. Nevertheless, they are substantially more accurate and less biased than their earnings counterparts. Differences in retained ownership and the predictability of earnings help explain why some dividend forecasts are more accurate than others.     

Dividend signaling under economic adversity: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

The signaling or information content hypothesis is amongst the most prominent theories attempting to explain dividend policy decisions. However, no research has, to date, examined the information content of dividends in conjunction with generalized economic adversity. With the majority of the western economies facing the tough reality of the economic recession since late 2007–early 2008, we focus on the possibility of asymmetrical dividend signaling effects between periods of stability and economic adversity. Using data from the London Stock Exchange (LSE), where earnings and dividend news are released simultaneously, we test the dividend signaling hypothesis and the interaction of earnings and dividends under both steady and adverse economic conditions. We document positive and significant average abnormal stock price returns around the dividend/earnings announcements. We also find a significant interaction between economic conditions and the information content of dividends. After testing the dividend signaling hypothesis under both stable and recessionary economic conditions we find that dividends have less information content than earnings in periods of growth and stability, but more in periods of economic adversity.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SHAREHOLDER REACTION TO DIVIDEND CUTS AND OMISSIONS

In this paper the proposition is tested that stock market reaction to a dividend change is a function of its information content. A multiple regression model is formulated to identify the factors that contribute significantly to the capital loss suffered by shareholders when firms decide to cut/omit dividends. Results indicate that, in conformity with the information content hypothesis, the announcement period capital loss induced by a dividend deduction significantly depends on the percentage change in dividends, the size and risk of the firm, and the price performance of the firm's stock in the immediately preceding period. The results further reveal that (1) simultaneous announcements of poor earnings cause larger capital losses; (2) prior announcements of loss/lower earnings, strikes, etc. attenuate the negative impact of dividend cuts; (3) managerial reassurances that the dividend reduction is growth-motivated produces a weakly favorable effect, and (4) institution of stock dividends concurrently with the dividend cut significantly reduces the negative valuation effect. It is concluded from the evidence that stock market reaction to managerial signals is a function of the perceived costs associated with these signals.     

AUSTRALIAN CORPORATE DIVIDEND POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper provides Australian evidence on the validity of the lintner (1956) dividend model. This model suggests corporate dividends are a function of current and past earnings. Regression tests are carried out. In these tests the basic Lintner model performs better than some other dividend models examined. In addition, the ability of the model to predict dividend changes is examined and compared to forecasts of various naive models. The forecasting test results generally indicate that a simple no-change model predicts as well as more complex regression models.     

The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends

This study presents evidence which indicates that stock prices, on average, react positively to stock dividend and stock split announcements that are uncontaminated by other contemporaneous firm-specific announcements. In addition, it documents significantly positive excess returns on and around the ex-dates of stock dividends and splits. Both announcement and ex-date returns were found to be larger for stock dividends than for stock splits. While the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends, the paper offers several signalling based explanations for them. These are consistent with a cross-sectional analysis of the announcement period returns.     

Prior Information and the Market Reaction to Dividend Changes

We investigate two hypotheses regarding the information content of dividend change announcements. The first is that the importance of information signaled by a dividend change depends on the reliability of earnings forecasts existing before the dividend announcement. The second hypothesis is that the stock price reaction to dividend change announcements is related to earnings forecast error as of the time of the dividend announcement. Our results reveal that dividend increases convey more information for firms in which financial analysts least accurately predict earnings. The results also indicate that dividend increase and decrease announcements provide market participants with information which, on average, allows them to differentiate between firms on the basis of future earnings realizations. These differential information effects are shown to be robust to price, size, dividend yield, and overinvestment effects.     

Dividends and Losses

An annual loss is essentially a necessary condition for dividend reductions in firms with established earnings and dividend records: 50.9% of 167 NYSE firms with losses during 1980–1985 reduced dividends, versus 1.0% of 440 firms without losses. As hypothesized by Miller and Modigliani, dividend reductions depend on whether earnings include unusual items that are likely to temporarily depress income. Dividend reductions are more likely given greater current losses, less negative unusual items, and more persistent earnings difficulties. Dividend policy has information content in that knowledge that a firm has reduced dividends improves the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings.     

THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF DIVIDEND CHANGES

In this study, the open empirical question as to whether or not dividends contain information is investigated. The study involves 200 stocks and 376 dividend announcements over the 1971 to 1977 period; measures of unexpected dividends are related to measures of abnormal returns for dividend changing stocks. This study is important for three reasons:

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