1996—2008年中国县级市减贫效应分解与空间差异分析

提出经济增长、收入分配与贫困线移动三因素减贫效应的分解方法,运用贫困增长曲线,分析1996—2008年中国四大区域县级市的经济增长模式、贫困水平和影响贫困三因素的减贫作用,并进行空间差异分析。实证结果表明:①西部地区的经济属于减贫增长,其他三大区域的经济属于涓滴式增长;②东北和东部的贫困状况普遍好于中西部地区;③经济增长始终起着减少贫困的作用,收入分配差距恶化起着增加贫困的作用,而分配差距改善可起到减贫作用;④使用变动的贫困线有助于独立分析经济增长和收入分配的减贫作用。     

农村家庭动态收入与相对贫困收敛

本文基于中国农村家庭五轮微观面板数据，使用相对贫困线标准，首先以家庭收入与资产进行GLM模型回归得到资产指数(或称为结构性收入),之后借用宏观经济理论中的增长收敛俱乐部方法分析结构性收入的动态情况，并使用面板分位数自回归方法研究收入冲击的持续性。结果显示：中国农村结构收入两极分化特征显著；贫困收敛俱乐部数量为5个，约11.6%的家庭陷入了贫困陷阱中；对陷入贫困陷阱的家庭而言，暂时性收入较高家庭受到良性冲击时暂时性收入的持续性最高，暂时性收入较低家庭受到不良冲击时暂时性收入的持续性较低；使用绝对贫困线标准时，陷入动态结构性贫困家庭的比例远小于相对贫困线下的比例，其他结论基本不变。     

中国弱相对贫困标准与测量

准确把握我国相对贫困现状需要在弱相对贫困线的基础上度量相对贫困发生率及其变化趋势。利用中国家庭金融调查2013—2019年四轮微观调查数据的实证研究显示,弱相对贫困线上限的变化趋势慢于人均收入的增长趋势。这表明基于传统收入比例法得到的相对贫困线会高估相对贫困发生率。数据分析也表明,无论分城乡还是分区域,相对贫困发生率均呈下降趋势;农村和东部地区相对贫困发生率分别高于城市和西部地区。样本期间,相对贫困分布的区域集中程度上升,相对贫困发生率呈现从高水平分散向低水平集中转变的特征。因此,重视城乡、区域之间的差异,因地制宜精准施策是相对贫困治理的重点。     

苏州市:职工工资随着企业效益『水涨船高』

为加快建立正常的收入与经济效益相联系的增长机制,使企业职工收入随着企业经济效益的提高而提高,苏州市政府日前发布了《关于建立企业职工工资增长与经济效益挂钩机制的指导意见》,     

我国健康保险有效需求的实证分析

有效保险需求是在当前特定时期内,在一定保险价格、一定购买力条件下现实的保险需求,是保险公司真正面对的业务来源。本文使用最近几年健康保险保费收入、城镇居民可支配收入、城镇基本医疗保险基金总收入及居民医疗保健支出等数据,通过建立回归模型对健康保险有效需求进行分析。结果显示：居民购买力和医疗费用的增长对我国健康保险的有效需求有显著影响,社会保险并未对商业健康保险产生替代作用,相反与健康保险保费收入同向增长。     

房价收入比初探——以合肥市为例

根据房价收入比的相关概念和公式,对合肥市近几年的房价收入比进行了实证研究,得出合肥的房价收入比处于全国平均水平,房价收入比的变化主要是由于人均住宅面积和人均收入的增长,房价的增长幅度相对不大。同时通过对不同收入阶层以及不同住宅类型的房价收入比构成分析,得出居民对经济适用房的承受力最广,中等收入户以上收入组对任何市场可供面积的经济适用房都具有有效的购买力,低收入组对90平方米以下中小面积经济适用房也具有有效的购买力,只有最低收入户对其仍没有购买力。     

中国东西部地区城市贫困问题对比研究——以广州市和兰州市为例

不论是东部发达地区还是西部欠发达地区,城市贫困居民在收入、消费、住房、教育和医疗等各方面都表现出与平均水平的明显差距.经济发展水平越高的地区,城市居民收入差距越大,城市贫困居民入不敷出的经济窘境较之欠发达地区表现得更为突出,相对贫困也表现得更为严重,城市主观贫困线和实际救助线也越高.     

物价指数变动的城镇居民收入超分配效应

物价指数变动对城镇居民可支配收入购买力具有较大影响。文章提出并定义了物价指数变动的收入超分配效应,就物价指数变动对居民收入分配格局的影响,从收入组别、地域层面和累进程度三个方面进行了定性和定量分析。分析指出,物价指数变动对我国城镇居民收入具有逆向调节作用,恶化了我国居民收入分配格局。2010年,由于物价指数变动,低收入组居民由此产生的负担是高收入组的2倍左右。在三大地域中,西部地区居民受到的负面影响最大。在物价指数变动的情况下,食品和衣着等项目的消费产生的负担具有累退性,同样扩大了居民收入差距。控制物价波动区间、对低收入者的补贴与物价指数挂钩、引导价格变动预期以及努力推进市场化建设,是控制这种任意超分配效应、改善城镇居民收入分配格局的解决之道。     

经济增长与农村反贫困

本文利用中国家庭收入项目（CHIP）调查数据,估计了1988—2002年期间的中国农村绝对贫困、收入差距的变化趋势及收入增长和收入分配变化对农村贫困的影响。根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国农村贫困都在显著下降。贫困指数分解和面板数据回归结果均显示收入增长是导致贫困下降的主要原因。     

经济增长与农村反贫困

本文利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,估计了1988-2002年期间的中国农村绝对贫困、收入差距的变化趋势及收入增长和收入分配变化对农村贫困的影响.根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国农村贫困都在显著下降.贫困指数分解和面板数据回归结果均显示收入增长是导致贫困下降的主要原因.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF INTERNATIONAL POVERTY COMPARISONS

Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study, I study the sensitivity of cross-national income poverty comparisons to the method in which poverty is measured. Absolute poverty comparisons that keep the purchasing power at the poverty line constant across countries lead to conclusions that differ from relative poverty comparisons in which the real value of the poverty line varies with average income. The absolute poverty ranking of countries also varies as the real value of the poverty line is lowered. Cross-national differences in household characteristics are largely irrelevant in explaining poverty differences.     

How Should We Measure Poverty in a Changing World? Methodological Issues and Chinese Case Study

This study asks whether, in a rapidly changing world, the estimated proportion of the world's population with income below US$1 (adjusted according to purchasing power parity) per day is still a good measure of trends in poverty. It argues that strong economic growth in nations such as China implies that the commonly accepted international poverty line definition of one half median national equivalent income is increasingly relevant and that poverty intensity (the normalized deficit or Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) index of order one) is a better summary index. This index has a convenient graphical representation—the “poverty box”. Using the proposed poverty line and the example of ranking the level of rural poverty in Chinese provinces, the study demonstrates how poverty intensity replicates the poverty rankings of the Sen family of poverty indices and captures most of the information content of higher‐order FGT indices.     

CHINESE POVERTY: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

This paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2004 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. Our methodology focuses on the following sources of variation: purchasing power exchange rates (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative levels and distributions of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of different income groups, and alternative spatial and temporal price indices. We report national, urban and rural poverty estimates corresponding to distinct assumptions. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction took place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be largely robust to the choice of assumptions, although estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty, and therefore of world poverty, in any year are greatly influenced by this choice.     

IS POVERTY INCREASING IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD?

We assess the developing world's progress in reducing poverty during the late 1980s using new data on the distribution of household consumption or income per person for 44 countries. Local currencies are adjusted to purchasing power parity. To assess robustness, restricted dominance tests are applied to the poverty comparisons. An overall decrease in poverty incidence is indicated over a wide range of poverty lines and measures. However the change is small, and numbers of poor increased at roughly the rate of population growth. The experience was diverse across regions and countries; poverty fell in South and East Asia, while it rose in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Scenarios for a redistribution of unpaid work in the Netherlands

The consumer price index (CPI) is used in the United States to measure changes in the cost of living. Since the CPI is used to index the official U.S. poverty guidelines and to establish eligibility criteria for various public assistance programs, a change in the methodology used to calculate the CPI would impact the accuracy of poverty statistics and, more importantly, poor families' access to public assistance. Since the majority of these poor families are headed by women, the CPI becomes a critical issue for feminist economics. In December 1996 the United States Senate Finance Committee's Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index issued its final report which concluded that use of the consumer price index results in widespread substantial overindexing. This paper uses the basic needs budgets (BNB) to evaluate changes in the cost of living for low-income families. The author compares the cost of the BNBs for single-parent families in 1983 and 1996 and finds that the cost of the bundle of goods and services included in the BNBs has increased faster than the CPI. The author finds similar results for two-parent families.     

贫困缺粮地区的粮食消费和食品安全

本文以实证分析方法对我国农村地区,特别是贫困缺粮地区的农民食品消费及其影响因素进行研究,认为影响我国贫困农村地区农民粮食和食品安全保障的最主要因素是农民的收入水平;传统的扩大当地粮食种植比重、提高自给自足水平的政策选择不仅导致资源配置低效,而且不利于食品安全水平的提高。研究提出,更有效地保障这部分弱势人群食品安全的政策选择是增加农民收入、完善和健全农产品,特别是粮食市场的流通机制。     

Geographies of injustice: the socio-spatial determinants of energy poverty in Poland,the Czech Republic and Hungary

Falling real incomes, rising utility prices and the historically poor thermal quality of the housing stock are some of the main factors that have driven the rise of systemic injustices surrounding energy poverty in the post-communist states of Eastern and Central Europe (ECE). We undertake a socio-spatial and temporal assessment of energy poverty in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, using Household Budget Survey micro-data and the consolidated national results of the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions. Our results indicate that increases in domestic energy prices and expenditures during the last decade have not been offset by purchasing power gains or energy efficiency improvements, resulting in sustained and growing levels of energy poverty. Capital city regions have fared better than rural areas even if traditional macroeconomic performance indicators do not easily match domestic energy deprivation metrics. We thus question policy approaches that favour income-based solutions and fail to recognise housing- and demography-related vulnerabilities.     

The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index

Although the long–run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is expected to hold across tradable goods, all price indices available to researchers for testing the validity of PPP contain some proportion of non–tradable goods prices, which may generate substantial persistence in the real exchange rate. We construct time series for quarterly price indices that minimize the presence of non–tradable goods for six major economies. Applying recently developed nonlinear econometric techniques to the resulting five US dollar real exchange rate series for the recent floating exchange rate regime, we provide evidence that the nonlinear mean reverting properties of these real exchange rate series are stronger than the mean reverting properties of real exchange rate time series constructed using the consumer price index (CPI). In turn, these results have a natural economic interpretation.
(J.E.L.: F31).     

A SYNTHESIS OF POVERTY LINE DEFINITIONS*

A fundamental point of discussion in poverty research is whether poverty is an absolute or a relative concept. If poverty is seen to be a situation of absolute deprivation, a poverty line will usually be defined to be independent of the general style of living in society. If poverty is considered to be a situation of relative deprivation, a poverty line will be defined in relation to the general style of living in society. The choice for one of these two approaches has important consequences for social policy, as absolute poverty may be reduced by economic growth, while relative poverty will only decrease when income inequality decreases. This paper suggests a poverty line definition that is not a priori meant to be either absolute or relative, but depends on the perception of poverty in society. If the poverty line is higher in countries with higher median income (as an indicator of “general style of living”) the poverty line is said to be relative; if the poverty line does not vary with median income, it is said to be absolute. The poverty line definition suggested appears to be a generalization of almost all well-known poverty line definitions. Poverty lines thus defined are estimated for eight European countries on the basis of a 1979 survey. The resulting lines appear to have an elasticity with respect to median income of 0.51, and hence can be said to be halfway on the scale between absolute and relative.     

POVERTY COMPARISONS WITH ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINES ESTIMATED FROM SURVEY DATA

The objective of measuring poverty is usually to make comparisons over time or between two or more groups. Common statistical inference methods are used to determine whether an apparent difference in measured poverty is statistically significant. Studies of relative poverty have long recognized that when the poverty line is calculated from sample survey data, both the variance of the poverty line and the variance of the welfare metric contribute to the variance of the poverty estimate. In contrast, studies using absolute poverty lines have ignored the poverty line variance, even when the poverty lines are estimated from sample survey data. Including the poverty line variance could either reduce or increase the precision of poverty estimates, depending on the specific characteristics of the data. This paper presents a general procedure for estimating the standard error of poverty measures when the poverty line is estimated from survey data. Based on bootstrap methods, the approach can be used for a wide range of poverty measures and methods for estimating poverty lines. The method is applied to recent household survey data from Mozambique. When the sampling variance of the poverty line is taken into account, the estimated standard errors of Foster–Greer–Thorbecke and Watts poverty measures increase by 15–30 percent at the national level, with considerable variability at lower levels of aggregation.