Cognition,imagination and institutions in demand creation

Formal rationality plays a limited role in human cognition, which originated in the creation of patterns to interpret phenomena and link phenomena with action. The creation of new patterns rests on imagination, not logic, typically stimulated by a perceived inadequacy in established patterns. Internal routines of the brain and external institutions form structures of cognitive capital; the institutions of markets, including money prices, aid the development of consumption capital, which simplifies most choices and provides scope for selective experiment and innovation in creating goods. Such innovation depends on differences between individuals and changes in their circumstances.     

The demand for distinction and the evolution of the prestige car

This paper studies the demand for a distinction good – the prestige car – and examines how this demand for distinction influences the evolution of the product. We focus on two very different sorts of distinction car: the Rolls Royce and the Ferrari. These two examples help us to articulate two polar approaches to the demand for distinction: distinction through antiquity and distinction through novelty. The paper sets out a model of the demand for distinction, and uses it to describe two trajectories along which the prestige car – and the demand for it – may evolve.     

Variety,growth and demand

A dynamic model of demand compatible with a changing composition of the economic system is presented in this paper. Consumers are not expected to have completely formed preferences for radically new objects of consumption. Consumers adopt new goods or services ,created by innovation, only if three barriers are overcome: 1) a critical (minimum) level of income, 2) critical human capital, 3) critical fitness. However, even a new good or service with a fitness higher than that of pre-existing ones, will not be immediately adopted. Consumers'.limited knowledge will slow down the rate of adoption of any new good or service.     

Weber, Schumpeter and Knight on entrepreneurship and economic development

This paper interprets the discussion on entrepreneurship and economic development that started off with Weber's papers on the Protestant Ethic. Weber sought the reason for the relatively rapid growth of the Occident in the rational, Calvinist attitude to life. Calvinism – in his view – exactly suited a society of free labourers, who were not tied to master and soil by extra-economic considerations as in tribal and feudal societies. Schumpeter gave an alternative explanation, emphasizing the importance of innovation and entrepreneurship. Knight, who stressed neither rationality nor innovation but uncertainty and perceptiveness as the sole source of progress and profits, followed up German language writing on this subject. Only the investor who can detect hitherto hidden qualities in people can gain. The paper demonstrates how these three authors influenced each other. The debate between these three authors has raised many issues of governance and organization that feature contemporary thinking.     

The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study*

Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation. By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well.     

Satiation in an evolutionary model of structural economic dynamics

This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors. Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from old sectors.     

Democracy and capitalism: Are they compatible in the long-run?

Starting from a discussion of Schumpeter's analysis of the relationships of capitalism, socialism and democracy, it is shown that, in a complex society, democracy is only compatible with a decentralized market economy with safe property rights. But in time democracy shows a tendency to weaken the capitalist system by more and more regulations and an ever-increasing share of government (including the social security system) in GDP. This tendency is a consequence of political competition because of the development of interest groups and the presence of rationally uninformed voters. It leads to a weakening of efficiency, investment, innovation and thus to lower growth rates of GDP. But in time forces opposing this development arise. First, because of the negative consequences of growing government the welfare and regulatory state is bound to move into a crisis in the long run. Thus innovative politicians have a chance to win the support of a majority of voters for reform projects, who perceive finally the ever-increasing burden of higher taxes and regulations and realize that these burdens are not worth the benefits bestowed on them. In doing so, they may face, however, the competition of ideologies. Second, there are other states with lower taxes and less unnecessary regulations which show higher growth rates of GDP, and gain thus relative advantages in international political and military competition since they can command greater resources with the passage of time. To maintain their relative international power position, reforms are thus considered as necessary by rulers. This may be helped by pressure resulting from comparisons of the standards of living done by their citizens.     

Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation

 Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it.     

The denominations of US coins: a case of institutional evolution

Abstract. The system of denominations of US coins, which the paper treats as a quasi-genetic trait of the US monetary system, has not been constant since inception but rather has evolved over time in the sense of being subject to innovation and selection. However, all the innovations have disappeared, as have a number of the original denominations. Abstract theories of optimal systems of denominations provide a good explanation of one selection factor, but other important influences include limiting the number of separate denominations and accommodating the requirements of decimal counting. However, even some innovations that ultimately disappeared survived for decades.     

Knowledge of growth and the growth of knowledge

The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge. This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting, the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy.     

Schumpeter and Steindl on the dynamics of competition

This paper compares and contrasts the contributions of Joseph Alois Schumpeter and Josef Steindl to the competitive paradigm. Both reject the static nature of traditional profit maximizing analysis and the analytical device of a representative firm. Instead they both opt for a dynamic framework in which there is a key role for innovation. Differences emerge in terms of the characteristics of individual firms that nurture the competitive struggle and are responsible for technical change. The maturation process of a capitalist economy, whereby a natural progression will involve an increase in concentration, as prescribed by Schumpeter and Steindl is also explored, as is criticism of their analyses. Finally the holistic approach to competitive modelling, a legacy of these two economists, is expounded and challenges for the future identified.     

Stimulating diffusion of green products

This paper presents a model-based analysis of the introduction of green products, which are products with low environmental impacts. Both consumers and firms are simulated as populations of agents who differ in their behavioural characteristics. Model experiments illustrate the influence of behavioural characteristics on the success of switching to green consumption. The model reproduces empirical observed stylised facts and shows the importance of social processing and status seeking in diffusion processes. The flexibility of firms to adapt to new technology is found to have an important influence on the type of consumers who change their consumption to green products in the early phase of the diffusion process.     

The role of innovation and quality change in Japanese economic growth

This paper explores the use of time series data to isolate quality change in the Japanese economy using a hedonic procedure. We argue that the traditional approach to hedonic estimation based upon panel data sets of different brands in a given product area is extremely resource intensive and, thus, unlikely to be adopted by official statistical bodies outside of key areas, such as computers. This paper adopts a “top-down” approach to see whether more traditional measures of technical change, such as patents, can be used to separate pure inflation from quality change. If this is possible, it offers a much simpler route to estimate the role of quality change in economic growth and performance. In practice, we extend the analysis not only to include patents, but other forms of intellectual property that might reflect technology and attribute changes, such as designs, utility models and trademarks. We begin by taking a longer-term historical perspective, exploring the development of indigenous inventive capacity in Japan during the early years when R&D data are not available. It is possible to show that the rise in utility models pre-dates the main growth in patenting activity, suggesting the development in more low-level indigenous creative work prior to higher level inventive activity. The principal aim of this paper, however, is to demonstrate that it is possible to develop robust models to explain changes in the producer price index in Japan, which can then be used to re-examine Japanese growth performance over the period from about 1960. If the official Japanese statistical body has fully accounted for quality change in the price indices (i.e. produced fully quality-constant price deflators), then the official estimates of growth will be correct. However, we provide strong evidence that this is not the case. Changes in quality, proxied by the IP variables, are important determinants of prices in Japan over the period 1960 to 1995 as a whole. Indeed, we provide evidence that the true rate of growth of the Japanese economy, taking into account the rate of quality change, is significantly higher than that suggested in official statistics.     

Market institutions and economic evolution

Our cognitive limitations cause us to rely on institutions to guide reasonable behaviour; market institutions reduce the costs of search, negotiation, and monitoring entailed in making single transactions. The making of markets requires an investment of immaterial capital, the major share of which typically is provided by those who expect to be very active on one side of the market. This `external organisation' provides producers with information for the development of new products; by simplifying transactions it also allows consumers greater scope for developing consumption capabilities. Thus the evolution of institutions guides the evolution of goods and services.     

Endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education

Abstract. Enrollment rates to higher education reveal a quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are heterogeneous in their beliefs about future wage differentials. An evolutionary competition between the heterogeneous beliefs determines the fraction of the newborn generation having a certain belief. Costly access to information on the returns to education induces agents to use potentially destabilizing backward looking prediction rules. Only if previous generations experience regret about their human capital investment decisions, will agents choose a more sophisticated prediction rule that dampens the cycle. Access to information becomes key for stable flows to higher education. RID="*" ID="*"We would like to thank Cars Hommes, Florian Wagener, seminar participants at the University of Amsterdam, participants of the workshop on ‘Skill Needs and Labor Market Dynamics’ at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) for helpful discussions, and an editor of this Journal and three anonymous referees for their comments. Tuinstra's research is supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) under a MaG-Pionier grant. Neugart acknowledges financial support from the German Ministry of Education. Parts of the research were done while Tuinstra was visiting the WZB and when Neugart was visiting CeNDEF. Correspondence to: The research for this paper was done while the first author was affiliated with the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung.     

Capitalism, profits and innovation in the new techno-economic paradigm

Innovative profits (of the kind conceptualized by Schumpeter) are today being increasingly created through international corporate networks for technological development. Such profits through innovation are encouraged by newer more flexible organizational forms, and further encouraged (unlike in the conventional perspective on profits and on the incentive to innovate) by knowledge flows between firms. Our empirical evidence, based on US patent data, shows that multinational companies are currently more likely to develop abroad technologies which are less science-based, and less dependent upon tacit knowledge. However, within the science-based industries firms may generate abroad some technologies which are heavily dependent on tacit knowledge, but normally in fields that lie outside their own core technological competencies. We find some evidence of a convergence in corporate technological diversification across large firms, facilitated by the now common spread in the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) as an integrator of formerly separate technological systems. This has led smaller firms to diversify, but giant firms to consolidate activity around those technologies that have become most interrelated.     

Competitive selection, self-organisation and Joseph A. Schumpeter

Post-Schumpeterians have tended to use biological analogies to understand economic evolution, in contrast to Schumpeter himself. In this paper it is argued that the biological analogies used tend to be outdated and that Schumpeter espoused an intuitive understanding of the evolutionary economic process that is closely related to modern conceptions of self-organisation, suitably adapted for application in socioeconomic systems. Using a self-organisation approach, competition can be understood without recourse to biological analogy, in terms of general systemic principles that operate in the presence of variety. Viewing economic evolution in terms of complex adaptation in self-organising systems yields nonequilibrium and nonlinear perspectives that parallel Schumpeter's own intuitions, reinvigorating them as the basis of evolutionary economic thinking in the new Millennium.     

Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970–1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time. RID="*" ID="*"We would like to thank Ulrich Witt, Director of the Evolutionary Economics Unit, The Max Planck Institute for Research into Economic Systems, Jena, Germany, for providing the intellectual stimulus for this project and arranging the necessary financial support from the Max Planck Society to facilitate our collaboration. Thanks are also due to the IFO Institute for providing the data for this study. However, the usual caveat applies.     

消费结构升级、政府支持与区域科技创新能力：空间视角下的分析

基于2009-2018年中国省级空间面板数据，运用空间杜宾模型,重点分析了空间视角下消费结构升级、政府支持与科技创新能力的多重关系。研究发现：①当前我国消费结构升级与区域科技创新能力呈现U型关系，即在消费结构处于较低阶段时，其与科技创新能力提升呈负相关关系，而当消费结构升级到一定高度，这种负向关系转变为正向关系；②政府支持与科技创新能力呈现倒U型关系，即当科技创新水平较低时，政府支持有利于科技创新能力提升，当科技创新能力发展到一定程度后，政府支持开始成为制约因素。在考虑发现①的基础上，可以认为政府支持下呈现的倒U型曲线与消费取向的阶段性变化密切相关，即当消费结构处于较低阶段时政府支持发挥了弥补市场不足的作用，而当消费市场转向有利于创新发展时，过度的政府支持会对自由市场产生挤出效应，从而不利于创新能力发展；③在空间溢出上，地理距离矩阵下呈现出与发现①和发现②相似的关系，经济距离矩阵下呈现出与发现②相似的关系。     

Knowledge, consumption, and endogenous growth

In neoclassical theory, knowledge generates increasing returns – and therefore growth – because it is a public good that can be costlessly reused once created. In fact, however, much knowledge in the economy is actually tacit and not easily transmitted –and thus not an obvious source of increasing returns. Several writers have responded to this alarming circumstances by affirming hopefully that knowledge today is increasingly codified, general, and abstract – and increasingly less tacit. This paper disputes such a trend. But all is not lost: for knowledge does not have to be codified to be reused and therefore to generate economic growth.