Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913

What drives recoveries after financial crises? I address this question for the 1870–1913 “first era of globalization,” focusing on whether trade policy changes or positive movements in commodity prices played a bigger role in stimulating output growth after financial crises in peripheral economies. At this time before governments had modern fiscal and monetary policy tools to use while responding to crises protectionism was one of the few national-level policy options available for shaping economic activity. Improving terms of trade is another major factor that could influence output growth in the commodity-exporting countries included in this analysis. While previous studies of this period have looked at longer-run associations between these explanatory variables and economic growth, I focus on the aftermath of crises, and find that tariff rate increases had a positive impact on GDP per capita growth, while positive terms of trade changes did not have a significant effect on output growth. This suggests that governments played a substantial role in shaping post-crisis recoveries during this period.     

Experimental Methods for the General Economist: Five Lessons from the Lab

I review five primary results from experimental economics that impact the economics profession as a whole. These results regard the relative (un)importance of subject sophistication in laboratory markets, the importance of gender on economic outcomes, the propensity for humans to behave in less than fully rational ways, the importance of trading institutions on economic performance, and the behavioral relevance of economic theory. I find that economics as a profession has benefited from the use of experimental methods by fostering a dialogue between theorists and empiricists, better informing policy and improving data collection techniques.     

The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals

The yield spread of South African to United States 10-year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This paper examines the association between the spread and macroeconomic fundamentals over the 1960–2019 sample period, under the GARCH and GARCH-M class of estimators. We find that higher South African economic growth, lower inflation, public and private debt, as well as rand–dollar appreciation are all associated with a statistically significantly lower South African–United States yield spread. The strongest impact is associated with the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Mean spread levels do not appear to be influenced by yield volatility. Finally, while there is no evidence of sign bias in the impact of shocks on yield volatility (negative shock impacts are no different than positive), there is evidence of size bias for both positive and negative shocks: larger shocks have a larger impact on volatility than small, regardless of their sign. Collectively, and even ignoring the impact of private sector leveraging, South Africa’s performance in these macroeconomic fundamentals is associated with an increase in the South African–United States yield spread of 363 basis points (since 2012).     

Tick size change and liquidity provision on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) introduced a change in its minimum tick sizes on April 13, 1998, for stocks traded at certain price ranges. We investigate the liquidity and market quality of the stocks affected by the tick size change, using a unique and comprehensive tick-by-tick data. We find that the quoted spread (effective spread) declined significantly by 20 to 50 percent (by 24 to 60 percent) after the tick size change. Reductions in spread are greater for firms with greater tick size reductions, greater trading activity, and higher transitory component in the bid–ask spread. Although investors are more aggressive in posting quotes, there is no definite evidence of an increase in trading volume. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the minimum tick size creates economic rents for liquidity providers, which is lowered upon tick size reduction. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (2) (2007) 173–194.     

Experience and Confidence in an Internet‐Based Asset Market Experiment

The experience effect in asset markets is one that was thought to be settled. As subjects gained experience with the interface and each other, they typically exhibit fewer instances of mispricing and at lower magnitudes. But questions regarding trading experience are not easy to address in the lab with the typical subject pool since the kind of experience one can typically generate in the lab is experience with the experimental environment itself—not with external environments. However, in virtual worlds asset markets are highly evolved, providing a subject pool with skilled and experienced traders that can be accessed via the Internet. This study compares experimental asset markets with participants recruited from virtual world trading groups to experimental markets with participants recruited from the virtual world at large. I further examine trader performance and trading behavior within markets. The findings indicate that asset markets with virtual world participants recruited from trading groups are more prone to exhibit bubbles than are markets with virtual world participants recruited at large. Within condition, experienced traders are less likely to follow fundamentals and more likely to engage in strategies that result in loss of earnings. Excess confidence is rejected as an explanation for this pattern, as confidence is found to be related to higher earnings and fundamental value trading strategies.     

海外资产和日本经济的转型

2011年日本的国际收支出现历史性转变,贸易收支和服务收支均为赤字,所得收支成为经常收支盈余的主体。日本海外资产规模已经与其国内生产总值不相上下,海外净资产连续22年据世界首位。日本经济正经历着从"贸易立国"向"投资立国"的战略转型。日本海外资产增速快,净资产多,但是结构不合理。同欧美"枢纽式"海外资产结构相比,"单行道"式的海外资产结构表明日本经济与世界经济融合度还不高、国内创新能力不足。内外经济环境变化、企业行为变化和政府政策从不同角度推动着日本经济的转型,但存在许多不确定的因素。     

日本碳交易的机制与成效

随着国际社会对气候问题重视的不断加深,二氧化碳排放权交易日益受到各国的关注,碳交易在全球迅速发展。日本碳交易的发展存在着诸多的困难与不确定性,但是,日本凭借自身的外交、节能减排技术等有利条件,不仅在积极推动国际碳交易发展中加强了国际关系,而且,通过不断完善碳交易机制,创建碳交易平台,促进国内外的碳交易制度的完善,取得了一定的环境和经济效益。     

Exchange Rate Instability： Japan＇s Micro-Macro Experiences and Implications for China

Since 1985, the yen‐dollar exchange rates repeatedly fluctuated and climbed to a level that could not be justified by economic fundamentals. The impacts on the Japanese economy were serious and far‐reaching. Since 21 July 2005, China has been moving toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Keeping RMB exchange rates basically stable and providing Chinese industries with means to hedge exchange rate risks are essential for China's sound economic development. Edited by Zhinan Zhang     

The stock market, fundamentals, cash flow, and private investment: evidence from Japan

Using Japanese postwar annual aggregate data, we examine the responsiveness of investment to three variables — asset Q (stock market), fundamentals Q (discounted future “profits”), and cash flow. We find considerable support for cash flow, but only moderate and very weak support for fundamentals Q and asset Q, respectively.Earlier work that has estimated investment equations on Japanese data spanning the entire period from the 1960s to the 1990s may therefore be plagued with specification error. When estimating the investment equations, we are careful to split the Japanese post-war period into two samples.     

The causal effects of exporting on domestic workers: A firm-level analysis using Japanese data

Japan has experienced rapid growth of non-regular workers under globalization in the 2000s. This study seeks to identify the causal effects of exporting on the changes in the share of non-regular workers and the growth of worker-hours (employment times working-hours) in Japanese manufacturing and wholesale sectors using extensive firm-level data. I employ a propensity score matching technique and investigate whether firms that start exporting experience higher increase in the share of non-regular workers and higher growth of worker-hours than do non-exporters. First, I find positive effects on the growth of worker-hours in manufacturing but not in wholesale. Second, contrary to public fears, I find little evidence that exporting results in the increase in the share of non-regular workers in both manufacturing and wholesale.     

Predictability,Price Bubbles,and Efficiency in the Indonesian Stock-Market

I examine the return predictability of the Indonesian stock-market during 1984–2016, in rolling windows, using an automatic portmanteau test and an automatic variance ratio. I find that the market’s efficiency and predictability vary over time—consistent with the adaptive market hypothesis—with returns being less predictable in recent periods, a sign of improving efficiency. I also find that a simple buy-and-hold investment strategy outperforms several technical trading rules, even after adjusting for risk. Furthermore, I find evidence of explosive behaviour in Indonesian stock prices and detect multiple bubbles, using sequential right-tailed unit-root tests.     

Job security and work force adjustment: How different are U.S. and Japanese practices?

The paper compares employment and hours adjustment in Japanese and U.S. manufacturing. In contrast to some previous work, we find that adjustment of total labor input to demand changes is significantly greater in the United States than in Japan; adjustment of employment is significantly greater in the United States, while that of average hours is about the same in the two countries. Although workers in Japan enjoy greater employment stability than do U.S. workers, we find considerable variability in the adjustment patterns across groups within each country. In the United States, most of the adjustment is borne by production workers. In Japan, female workers, in particular, bear a disproportionate share of adjustment.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

Economic Value of Country Image: Evidence from International Trade and Implications for China

This paper examines the economic value of country image from the perspective of export prices through matching the CEPII export price data with the British Broadcasting Company country image data from 2006 to 2013. The estimation results show that positive country image has an “elevating” effect and negative country image has a “depressing” effect on export prices. The results also indicate that the lower the level of economic development of an export or import country, the stronger the export price effect of country image. As distances between export countries and trading partners increase, the elevating effect of positive country image on export prices becomes weaker. However, the depressing effect of negative country image does not become weaker over greater distances. We find that export prices are depressed by negative country image to a greater degree for China than for other countries. Therefore, it is necessary for China to prevent the occurrence of incidents detrimental to country image.     

The impacts of dual carbon goals on asset prices in China

In this paper, we study the impacts of dual carbon goals on asset prices in China. Using the speech of President Jinping Xi on 22 September 2020 as an event in which the dual carbon goals are formally announced, we find that stocks with green concept have superior performance in the post-event window relative to non-green stocks. In particular, a portfolio that longs green stocks and shorts non-green stocks can generate an average monthly return above 3%. The official announcement of dual carbon goals not only attracts attention of investors, resulting in higher institutional ownership and trading volume for green stocks, but also improves fundamentals for green stocks in the post-event window.     

Magnitudes of Market Inefficiency: Theory and Application

This paper conceptually distinguishes the intrinsic value from the fundamental value, though most of previous literatures have implicitly deemed them to be identical. The distinction of the two concepts clarifies the relation between the market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970) and the over- (under-) valuation for evaluating the stock market. Then, this study proposes an alternative measure of ‘magnitude of market inefficiency’ for accessing the trading systems and applies this measure to the nine stock markets during the two sub-periods. The trading systems of three markets improve in the second period, while the others become worse. This study also proposes an alternative measure of a fundamental value of stock price based on a macroeconomic model and makes clear the relation of the over- (under-) valuation of the market to the magnitudes of market inefficiency. Thus, the application to the Japanese stock market indicates that the magnitudes of inefficiency are small compared with the net over- (under-) valuations. It is because the magnitude of inefficiency is stationary while the net over- (under-) valuation is non-stationary.     

The impact of technology shocks on the Japanese business cycle—An empirical analysis based on Japanese industry data

In order to investigate the impacts of technology shocks on the recent Japanese business cycles, we construct an aggregate technological measure from industry-based data. Our approach is to estimate production function by industry, by controlling for the returns to scale factor and unobserved factor utilization. We find that positive technology shocks result in a contraction of labor input on impact. This result implies that the standard real business cycle (RBC) model is not supported and the new Keynesian model or the labor reallocation model is a candidate to explain the Japanese business cycles. From further empirical studies, we find that the labor reallocation model is plausible for explaining the Japanese business cycles.     

A simple test of the effect of interest rate defense

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that “disaggregate” the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 612–636.     

Comparing Exchange Market Pressure across Five African Countries

This paper compares the credibility of exchange rate arrangements for the five African countries which are members of the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries and will be referred to as Afro-Luso. Our working hypothesis is that credibility necessarily implies low mean exchange market pressure (EMP), low EMP conditional volatility and low-severity EMP crises under financial-market integration. In addition, economic fundamentals must account for EMP dynamics. We also seek evidence of a risk–return relationship for mean EMP and of “bad news” (negative shocks) having a greater impact on EMP volatility than “good news” (positive shocks). Using our econometric models, we are able to rank Afro-Luso countries’ conditional volatility in ordinal terms. Our main conclusion is that countries with currency pegs, such as Guinea-Bissau (GB) and Cape Verde (CV), clearly have lower volatility when compared to those with managed floats and are therefore more credible. Moreover, EMP crises episodes under pegs are much less severe. We find that economic fundamentals correctly account for mean EMP in all countries and that the risk–return relationship is much more favourable for investors under currency pegs, as the increase in volatility is lower for the same rate of return. The exception to this finding is Mozambique (MOZ), which apparently has a risk–return profile akin to that enjoyed by countries with pegs. A plausible reason is that MOZ has the only managed float in our sample implementing monetary and exchange rate policy within the confines of an IMF framework, which establishes floors for international reserves and ceilings for the central bank’s net domestic assets. This intuition needs to be tested, however. EMP conditional volatility, meanwhile, is generally driven by changes in domestic credit (lowers it) and foreign reserve changes (raises it). The first effect is more pronounced under currency pegs, but also under MOZ’s managed float. “Bad news” increases volatility more that “good news” only in the case of CV’s currency peg, which we take to be another sign of its credibility. A few striking cross-country comparisons also emerge in our analysis. Among countries with managed floats, Angola (ANG) has the most severe EMP crises, MOZ the least severe and São Tomé &; Príncipe (STP) lies between the two extremes but closer to MOZ.