Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France

The chemical process industry gathers critical infrastructures since chemical plants represent for the society both an instrument to generate activity and benefits (production of goods, employment, services …), and an instrument that can harm people and the environment. This paper describes the risk assessment approach need in France for licensing hazardous installations, in particular those covered by the Seveso II Directive and the implication for land-use planning. The first part explains why the French risk assessment procedure is based on the quantitative evaluation of major accident scenarios with explicit criteria, and only on qualitative analysis of the risk reducing measures without explicit criteria. The second part shows some on-going evolutions in the risk assessment process in particular for the analysis of the safety barriers. In the third part, the authors share some thoughts on the risk decision-making process.     

The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothesis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely, the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate is not clearly reflected.     

Fear and risk in the audit process

Relying on an ethnographic study conducted in the French branch of a big audit firm and using a psychodynamic perspective to interpret the collected data, we show that auditors’ sense of comfort (Pentland, 1993) arises only at the end of the audit process, and that the rest of the time, public accountants are inhabited primarily by fear. Fear plays a crucial but ambivalent role in auditing. On one hand, auditors and audit firms cultivate this feeling through informal and formal techniques to stimulate vigilance, encourage self-surpassment, mitigate the anesthetizing effect of habit and maintain reputation. On the other hand, audit teams’ members strive to alleviate their fear in order to form and convey their conclusions with a certain degree of comfort. In the field, driven by fear, they manage to finally become comfortable either by mobilizing their ‘practical intelligence’ (an intelligence of the body which helps them handle that which, in their mission, cannot be obtained through the strict execution of standardized procedures) or by adopting defensive strategies (such as distancing themselves from work-related problems, mechanically applying audit methodologies or relaxing their conception of a job well done). Fear and risk are closely related phenomena. Michael Power (2007a, p. 180) notes that ‘the significant driver of the managerialization of risk management is an institutional fear and anxiety’. Yet the experience of fear and the role that fear plays in risk management processes is most often overlooked in the literature. In this respect, our study contributes to ‘emotionalize’ and challenge the cognitive and technical orientation adopted by most academics and regulators in their understanding of audit risks and auditors’ scepticism. We also discuss a number of avenues for future research with a view to encouraging further examination of the role that emotions play in the audit process.     

The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

The medical officer's role in critical illness insurance product development

Critical illness insurance is a new (to the US), medically sophisticated insurance product that is tantalizing some US insurers. Few have brought a product to market, but many opine that a US breakthrough is in the offing. Would you rise to the challenge and craft an opportunity to participate in the development of a new product concept? How do medical officers bring value to the product development world? Do medical officers belong in the domain of product actuaries and consultants who bring new product ideas to life? Dr. Jan von Overbeck and I presented a workshop at the 2004 AAIM meeting to discuss the role of the medical officer in the development and evaluation of critical illness insurance. This article summarizes that discussion for the Journal's readers.     

The role of risk management in mergers and merger waves

We show that merger activity and particularly waves are significantly driven by risk management considerations. Increases in cash flow uncertainty encourage firms to vertically integrate and this contributes to the start of merger waves. These effects are incremental to previously identified causes of wave activity. Our risk management hypothesis is further supported by cross-sectional differences in the likelihood that a firm vertically integrates, and by the post-acquisition characteristics of vertically integrating firms. These results are consistent with the view (from the industrial organization literature) that vertical integration is an operational hedging mechanism that reduces the cost of increased uncertainty.     

固有风险评估方法及其改进

固有风险是指在不考虑内部控制结构的前提下,由于内部因素和客观环境的影响,企业的账户、交易类别和整体财务报表发生重大错误的可能性.     

Communication of risk assessment information to risk managers

This article describes the results of a two-phase study of risk communication between risk assessors and risk managers (including policy makers). The first phase consisted of telephone interviews with 30 air quality risk managers from all levels (18 from local, state, and regional offices, and 12 from national offices). The second phase involved a focus group with 11 senior EPA risk managers representing a broad range of EPA national offices and programmes. The two-hour focus group elicited responses from the risk managers to specific examples of videotaped risk information created by agency risk assessors. The risk managers indicated their interests in hearing both qualitative and quantitative information about risk and emphasized the importance of discussing other information about the decision context. Similar responses to the videotaped risk information were elicited from a class of students at the Harvard School of Public Health. This exploratory work suggests that to better inform risk managers, risk assessors must also appreciate and present the broader context of the decision, and they must convey how uncertainties and weaknesses in the assessment may influence stakeholder perceptions of risk and the effectiveness of different risk management options. Further research on how to communicate risk information to risk managers is recommended.     

The art of risk management: the crucial role of the global art insurance industry in enabling risk and security

This article investigates the under-researched sphere of insurance. It uses empirical research data to focus on one case study, the London art world, to analyse how the global art insurance industry ‘does’ security and how it enables risk and security to be embraced. Examining how the industry plays a crucial role in the security of art and within the art world itself, the article argues that the global art insurance industry’s role is largely beneficial for the art world because by enabling risk to be embraced through insurance, its pre-crime and post-crime responses, and its influence ‘beyond’ insurance, it emboldens and fuels the dynamic, thriving global art world.     

The effect of director experience on acquisition performance

Prior research finds that firms hire directors for their acquisition experience, regardless of acquisition quality (whether their prior acquisitions earned positive or negative announcement returns). Using several short- and long-run measures, we examine the effects of directors’ acquisition experience on the acquisition performance of firms hiring them. We find that board acquisition experience is positively related to subsequent acquisition performance, demonstrating that firms appropriately value experience. Beyond experience itself, however, the quality of directors’ prior acquisitions is also important. Our results suggest that firms may be better served to select directors based upon both past acquisition experience and acquisition performance.     

The short-term impact of director trading in UK closed-end funds

Most closed-end funds are transparent entities that hold securities that are actively traded in liquid markets. In such a setting, the argument that director transactions mitigate information asymmetry has very limited applicability. Our results provide support for the theory of Barber and Odean [2008. “All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors.” Review of Financial Studies 21: 785–818]: retail investor decision-making is influenced by attention-grabbing events. Director purchases are one such attention-grabbing event and are associated with significant positive price returns – the magnitudes of which are linked to the size of the purchase, the size of the fund, and the investment mandate. Trading volumes increase at the time of the purchase but most of the initial price responses and trading volumes dissipate over the following 15 days.     

Overbidding in fixed rate tenders: The role of exposure risk

The fixed rate tender is one of the main procedures used by central banks in the implementation of their monetary policies. While academic research has largely dismissed the procedure owing to its tendency to encourage overbidding, central banks such as the ECB and the Bank of England have continued using it. We investigate this apparent conflict by considering an auction-theoretic setting with private information about declining marginal valuations. Since overbidding entails exposure risk, an equilibrium may exist even if bids are costless and the intended volume is pre-announced. In fact, the allotment quota may be strictly below one with certainty. Also with adaptive expectations, overbidding need not escalate. However, the resulting allocation is typically inefficient. Empirical proxies of exposure risk are significant in both euro and sterling operations. Our findings have implications, in particular, for the potential reintroduction of pro rata allotment in the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem.     

The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes

Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. On many occasions, objective data are not available, necessitating the use of experts. However, research into procedures to elicit and aggregate information from experts is difficult to validate or test empirically. A controlled economic experiment was used to assess subjective probability elicitation accuracy resulting from three alternative elicitation procedures and two aggregation alternatives. The empirical results provide evidence of the impacts of elicitation techniques, distribution type, and personal characteristics such as risk preferences and personality type on subjective risk assessment accuracy. Our conclusion is that experimental approaches hold promise as a technique to assess the forecast accuracy of aggregated subjective probabilities in a variety of contexts.     

The model of risk assessment of greywater discharges from the Danube River ships

Having in mind the immense value of the Danube River and knowing that risk assessment of its pollution is one of the key elements for ecology and the health of people in its region, in this paper we emphasized the importance of risk assessment of ship-generated wastewater – particularly in the case of greywater discharges. Although, a number of methods for measuring and analysing different environmental risks have been developed, previous research shows that the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method is applicable in solving environmental issues. Therefore, we conducted our research with the main purpose to develop a model of FMEA method application for assessing the risks of ship-generated greywater discharges based on estimated data for total quantity of greywater, the size of the exposed population to the pollution of greywater and the possibilities of this pollution detection. Risk analysis was performed on official data for nine ports on the Danube River on inland waterways of the Republic of Serbia. Based on the obtained results, we concluded that measures, recommendations and risk prevention strategies for ship-generated greywater discharges should go into two major directions: (1) decreasing the pollution caused by greywater discharges; (2) increasing the number of water quality monitoring stations.